SOUL wrote:I don't think people realize how the new lottery odds work when it pertains to the top picks. If we think everybody after top 5 is trash, finishing 3-6 shouldn't really matter besides the floor or where we can drop. What I'm trying to say is that we are still very much in the mix for a top pick, our floor is just lower.
If we're concerned about dropping past number 5, well, every team is besides the rockets. If that is our main worry, we should've been the worst team.
Even if we finished at 2nd (current Pistons), the most probable odds are 5th and 6th pick at 28 and 20% respectively.
The first place Houston Rockets have a 51% chance to get a top four pick.
The (currently) fifth place Orlando Magic have a 44% chance to get a top four pick.
Yeah, it helps to get those extra percentages, but people are acting like we have a 5% chance to get a top pick or something. Like I said, it's just that the more probably percentages are in the 6th-7th picks, but our CHANCE at a top pick is still good.
Your statistical analysis is terrible. I respect you as a poster but the way you're justifying the math is just... silly...
You're basically saying that all you need is one lotto ticket because only one number wins. You can't just casually say, sure it would be nice to have 80% of all the possible outcomes, but only one wins so I'm okay with my 1% chance.
More to your point, this is a 5 player draft. Again, we just dropped from an 80% chance of landing a top 5 pick, to a 47% chance in less than a week. If we drop below Cleveland, it drops to 37%.
Kuminga (likely), Suggs, or Green will be available at 5. The rest of the players are uninspiring.
This tank should have nothing to do with landing the #1 pick because the odds have changed as you mentioned but you have to look at the entire picture (percentages, the players available, etc) to know where you want to land for optimal odds to improve the team quickly.