We're 6-15 in 5-point games (and 3-5 in games decided by one possession) and we've had the lead with less than 1:00 remaining in more than half of those losses. We've also been missing multiple key players (mostly OG and Lowry) in nearly half of those games. Still, that is almost a complete reversal of our 14-5 record in 5-point games last season. So what is the reasoning? Is it because our "home" games are away games? Has the loss of Ibaka+Gasol really affected us that much? Are we relying too much on a few players late in games/are we a bad Q4 team?
It's not #1. We actually fared better in close games on the road last season (8-1 in 5-point games, though 2 wins came as the away team in the bubble) while we were pretty good at winning close games at home (6-4). We've just been bad in close games regardless of location this season (2-7 on the road and 4-8 at home).
It's not really #2 either. Boucher stepped into the Ibaka role at almost an identical level (very similar box score stats/per36 stats while Boucher was more efficient and had a greater impact on the team's performance when he was on the floor) while the drop-off from Gasol to Baynes was larger than anyone could have imagined. One player doesn't account for a 10-win swing, though, especially considering Gasol played less than 6 MPG in the 4th quarter last season while Baynes played 4 MPG in the 4th in a total of 29 games and has been stapled to the bench for nearly 20 games now.
#3 seems like the obvious answer, but some research muddies things more than you'd expect. We actually have the 5th best point differential in Q4 behind the likes of the Lakers, Sixers, Nets and Jazz. A lot of our key players have individually performed at a similar level late in games compared to last season too. Siakam's Q4 USG% has decreased substantially (29% to 24.5%) and his efficiency has dipped a bit (56.5% to 55%), but his NetRTG has been even better (+9 to +11.). OG has increased his Q4 USG% (12.5% to 18%) and efficiency (56% to 65%) while his NetRTG has also improved slightly (+4.5 to +6). Boucher's USG% is identical while he has improved his efficiency (62% to 68%) and NetRTG (+2.5 to +7.5). FVV's USG% is similar while his efficiency has cratered (58% to 48.5%) and his NetRTG has improved (+5 to +9.5). Lowry's USG% is similar while his efficiency has dropped (58.5% to 55%) and his NetRTG has fallen off a cliff (+7 to -4.5). Overall, these 5 key players -- who average ~8 Q4 MPG when healthy -- haven't been any worse late in games than last season. What I did notice is that many of our bench players have been big negatives in Q4. Gillespie (-15.5 NetRTG), Hood (-9 NetRTG) and Flynn (-8 NetRTG) especially have been playing pretty big minutes lately (~5 Q4 MPG) and it's leading directly to losses (New York, Utah and Denver games come to mind).
It really just feels like this team/management had to recalibrate after we were decimated by COVID then decided to go the full-on tank/development route after the trade deadline because they realized that the deck was stacked against them too much to overcome. Since the trade deadline, we've been missing Lowry (14 games), FVV (10), Trent (8) and OG (6) for pretty significant time and most of it has been rest/maintenance for minor injuries which has resulted in a 9-14 record. In classic 2020/21 Raptors fashion, our win percentage (T-23rd at 39%) doesn't reflect our point differential (16th at +0.8) since the trade deadline. As FVV said, this really is the best worst team of all time.
We the Champs...
