Draft Thread Part 2

[DG88]

I don't remember a pre draft thread, where I've liked this many players

It's a fairly deep draft with good players throughout the entire first round even into the second round. It's a huge jump from last year's draft.

[CoinTossRoss31]

So I'm starting to turn around on drafting Mitchell. More and more I watch of him the more I seem to like. So this is my draft board if we are picking at #7


1. Keon Johnson

2. Moses Moody

---------

Tier 2:

3. Davion Mitchell
4. Bouknight
5. Senguin

Tier 3 :
Barnes
Josh Giddey
Springer
Wagner

[CoinTossRoss31]

I don't remember a pre draft thread, where I've liked this many players

This is kind of why I'm okay with a trade down. Even if we aren't getting 2 picks this draft.. if we could trade our pick for a late lottery plus a first next year I'd hop all over it. Lots of players to like from 10-20

[rapsdotcom]

I don’t really like Garuba as a fit for us. Other than measurements, he’s nothing like a Bam or Draymond type offensively. He’s not a playmaker or point forward type at all. He’s got iffy hands and his upside on that end is a pick and pop/corner 3 spacer imo.

Resigning Birch on a reasonable deal gives us pretty much what we’d get from Garuba, especially in his first few years as an NBA player. I get that he’s a defensive juggernaut but I think we’re good in that regard. If we’re picking in the top 10, I think we need to swing for the fences a bit more. Someone with upside as a shot creator.


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[Saciid11]

I don't know how Barnes, Jalen Johnson, Keon Johnson, Kia can be ranked ahead of Usman Garuba.. I can definitely see Masai drafting this kid with our pick. Absolute monster at the defensive end.

Watch on YouTube

Isn't he like this year's Okongwu?

No.

Okongwu has MUCH more offensive skill than Garuba and people actually thought he would be like Bam with more post moves. He's just had a very tough time even seeing the court between his injuries and playing behind Capela who the Hawks traded for to win now.

Garuba is looking like a taller Draymond. Assuming both ceilings imo a Bam like prospect with a better offensive skillset (coming into the league) is a more desirable player than another Draymond because you still get a great defender with much more scoring upside.

Usman is reminding me of they hype Bismack Biyombo had coming out of the draft. I'm sure someone will jump in to say how Garuba is supposedly more dominant but Biz was a shot blocking monster to the point pre-draft some people were speculating he was going to be like another Dwight Howard. Garuba looks incredibly awkward trying to ballhandle so personally I'm not even seeing the Draymond comparison as one of his biggest strengths is being able to rip/rebound & run to lead fastbreaks and pick teams apart with his passing which I don't see outta Garuba. I mean to each his own if people want to draft him but personally I'd be very disappointed to spend a whole crappy season like this just to get a good (undersized) defensive C, I'd much rather take a higher offensive upside prospect that maybe our developmental staff can build into an all-star caliber player, but that's me.

I don't remember Bismack ever being as good as Garuba in the Euro league at 18. I also don't remember Bismack being able to hit shots outside of 5ft from the rim. Bismack is horrible comparison. The best comparison is Ibaka and I see Garuba being smaller Ibaka who can guard from guards to bigs. Offensively I don't expect him to be 20ppg scorer, but I think he will be double digit scorer who will develop consistent 3 pointer like Ibaka. Defensively he has potential be a beast, a future all nba defensive team type of player . Masai has already scouted this kid for years, so he knows what he is capable of. I would not be surprised if we draft him if our pick is outside top 5 ...

[PhilBlackson]

I don't remember a pre draft thread, where I've liked this many players

This is kind of why I'm okay with a trade down. Even if we aren't getting 2 picks this draft.. if we could trade our pick for a late lottery plus a first next year I'd hop all over it. Lots of players to like from 10-20

In theory I don't disagree with trading back BUT with management's blatant willingness to tank this season I would think they aren't doing so blindly...

While I'd like to believe a conspiracy theory that there's an under the table arrangement for us to hop into the top 5 as payback for Silver basically slandering Masai for the POS cop incident...the far more rational conclusion for me is that they see another prospect just outside the top 5 or so they're fairly enamored with that they don't want to risk missing out on by being just a little too far back in the draft and I believe that is right way of them going about it is ensuring they get a prospect they actually love, then trading down n just praying the player slips through the weeds or just trying to make the most out of whoever comes through.

But keep in mind we also have two 2nds (and there's a possibility of S&T Lowry in a package that would include another 1st) so we could have a good chance to get another solid 1st if they have their eyes on another player who does in fact slide (which imo is more so when I'd pursue guys like Mitchell, Sengun, Giddey, K Jones etc).

[vulture]

We're getting into the top 4. None of this trading down BS!

[OAKLEY_2]

So I'm starting to turn around on drafting Mitchell. More and more I watch of him the more I seem to like. So this is my draft board if we are picking at #7


1. Keon Johnson

2. Moses Moody

---------

Tier 2:

3. Davion Mitchell
4. Bouknight
5. Senguin

Tier 3 :
Barnes
Josh Giddey
Springer
Wagner

I saw this scout interviewed by some Raptor blogger youtuber and he picked Mitchell and Wagner as best choice players for the Raps based on 7-10 range. Pretty methodical breakdown and he had renamed BBIQ as something almost sports psychology-ish. Whatever he was calling it the point was the Raps covet analytics so much that the ability to make quick reads and have dna for schemes and other x's and other o's gives players value towards winning basketball. The choice of Wagner surprised me. Coming out of this you can see player culture fit is important in Toronto.

[Psubs]

So I'm starting to turn around on drafting Mitchell. More and more I watch of him the more I seem to like. So this is my draft board if we are picking at #7


1. Keon Johnson

2. Moses Moody

---------

Tier 2:

3. Davion Mitchell
4. Bouknight
5. Senguin

Tier 3 :
Barnes
Josh Giddey
Springer
Wagner

I saw this scout interviewed by some Raptor blogger youtuber and he picked Mitchell and Wagner as best choice players for the Raps based on 7-10 range. Pretty methodical breakdown and he had renamed BBIQ as something almost sports psychology-ish. Whatever he was calling it the point was the Raps covet analytics so much that the ability to make quick reads and have dna for schemes and other x's and other o's gives players value towards winning basketball. The choice of Wagner surprised me. Coming out of this you can see player culture fit is important in Toronto.

Wagner's A/T of almost 3 as a sophomore must really turn them on. Like if he was on Florida State instead of Barnes he'd have a higher usage and maybe 6 assists and only 2.5 turnovers per game. Also his shot looks decent from 3 and shoots over 80%

[ItsDanger]

Mitchell is a poor FT shooter and is 22 already. You're making a big mistake wasting a #7 pick on a discount Marcus Smart. You reach for the offensive potential at that draft position, not a 6'2 defensive guard.

[Dalek]

I could see Springer be big board ranked that high but I almost never see him drafted that high in the mocks.

It is weird that Springer really flies under the radar despite his more than solid numbers and profile. Partially, I think Springer was less looked at because Keon was such a spectacular athlete. Keon was the human highlight reel, but to me, Springer was much more impressive all-around. It is like Springer just suffers from bad PR unlike guys like Suggs and Mitchell who got national attention for their runs.

A couple weird Raptorsy things to note about Springer:

Jaden Springer actually shares the same birthday (Sept 25) as former Raptor and mentor to Lowry - Chauncey Billups. That is actually who I see Jaden to be quite similar to.

As mentioned before, his cousin is current Raptor DeAndre Bembry.

Toronto Blue Jays biggest acquisition this year was also a Springer. Maybe this was meant to be.

I think the same people that put Keon ahead of Springer are the same that put Mitchell ahead of Butler. The better athlete always gives people the impression of a higher ceiling. In terms of prospects and likelihood of success in the NBA, Springer and Jared Butler should be considered better prospects and both should go in the lottery, imo.

I watched Tennessee more than I watched any other team this year. Springer beats up on guys that way Smart and Eric Bledsoe do. In terms of the Raptors, he fits needs. We need ballhandlers, we need shooting, and we need high IQ decision-makers, we play two PGs consistently, and Nurse is hell-bent on defining himself as a defensive coach. That note about Bembry is really cool, too. And then his upside is tied to his age.

That's interesting that you see his physicality like Smart and Bledsoe. I do see him as a power guard as one poster called, a 90s type of player. I was curious if you think he could hold up positionally to be covering twos. What I kind of see with him is to start off as a back-up two beside Flynn. Maybe we bring back Bembry to help mentor him.

[UcanUwill]

I don't know how Barnes, Jalen Johnson, Keon Johnson, Kia can be ranked ahead of Usman Garuba.. I can definitely see Masai drafting this kid with our pick. Absolute monster at the defensive end.

Watch on YouTube

Isn't he like this year's Okongwu?

No.

Okongwu has MUCH more offensive skill than Garuba and people actually thought he would be like Bam with more post moves. He's just had a very tough time even seeing the court between his injuries and playing behind Capela who the Hawks traded for to win now.

Garuba is looking like a taller Draymond. Assuming both ceilings imo a Bam like prospect with a better offensive skillset (coming into the league) is a more desirable player than another Draymond because you still get a great defender with much more scoring upside.

Usman is reminding me of they hype Bismack Biyombo had coming out of the draft. I'm sure someone will jump in to say how Garuba is supposedly more dominant but Biz was a shot blocking monster to the point pre-draft some people were speculating he was going to be like another Dwight Howard. Garuba looks incredibly awkward trying to ballhandle so personally I'm not even seeing the Draymond comparison as one of his biggest strengths is being able to rip/rebound & run to lead fastbreaks and pick teams apart with his passing which I don't see outta Garuba. I mean to each his own if people want to draft him but personally I'd be very disappointed to spend a whole crappy season like this just to get a good (undersized) defensive C, I'd much rather take a higher offensive upside prospect that maybe our developmental staff can build into an all-star caliber player, but that's me.

Bismack's hype was built entirely on Nike hoop summit game. Garuba is not perfect, I mean he is 3ppg. player in Euroleague, but is best defender on the most dominant team in the ACB, Garuba's feel for the game is very good, he just can't score right now.

[ItsDanger]

Garuba is 6'8. A C's game in a PF body. Defensive player. You can't take him that high. He's somebody that's 12-20 range. Top 10 should be offensive potential players.

[Dalek]

I love this metric ShotQuality which I posted stats for last year. I was looking forward to seeing their stats wings. The most interesting is the one for high quality shot creation for unassisted attempts. Moody is ranked very high and that is excellent to see when you hear the knock on him is not being able to create his own shot.

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The caveat with this type of stat is it is based on on what is the highest quality shot for that particular player. Moody rates really high because he takes the same type of high efficiency shot for him that put his team in a good position to get a score. He is the guy who plays within himself. Wagner and Duarte also had impressive numbers which speaks to their own IQ and efficiency.

The guy I have to dig more into is Terrence Shannon Jr. He is probably more athletic than Bouknight (14 dunks last season), plays in the crazy uptempo Texas Tech offense and has a 44.4 FTr which is Harden-esque, also has a 2.5 Steal% which is really good. He is a guy I think the Raps might be interested in for his event creation upside.

Spoiler:

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[Jadoogar]

6th - 9th picks across several sites
The Ringer - Keon Johnson, Davion Mitchell, Franz Wagnar, Alperen Sengun
The Athletic - Scottie Barnes, Keon Johnson, Moses Moody, Davion Mitchell
NBA Draft.net - Scottie Barnes, Moses Moody, Keon Johnson, Davion Mitchell
CBS - Keon Johnson, James Bouknight, Scottie Barnes, Tre Mann (mitchell is next)
Tankathon - Scottie Barnes, Jalen Johnson, keon johnson, Corey Kispert (Mitchell is next)

Seems to be the same few guys aside from the Ringer.

[Zeno]

A very hypothetical trade scenerio...

Assuming we are 7th pre-lottery...
Would you trade our pre-lottery draft position for Houston's?
So Houston would get our 7th pick and our decreased odds to move up but the security of knowing they are getting a top 7-10 pick at worst, and we would be getting the increased odds of moving up but if it didn't happen would end up with Miami's pick which is probably around 17th. I don't believe either team would do this trade in reality because the downside risk is too great, but it is interesting to consider.

In the worst case scenerio, we'd be trading the number 1 pick for the 17th pick. I don't believe anyone real life gm would make take that chance, however slim. However our chance at top 4 would be going up from 32% to 51% and our chances at Cade would nearly double from 7.5 to 14%. Are those increased odd worth the potential drop all the way to 17th?

[bozothepope]

So I'm starting to turn around on drafting Mitchell. More and more I watch of him the more I seem to like. So this is my draft board if we are picking at #7


1. Keon Johnson

2. Moses Moody

---------

Tier 2:

3. Davion Mitchell
4. Bouknight
5. Senguin

Tier 3 :
Barnes
Josh Giddey
Springer
Wagner

I saw this scout interviewed by some Raptor blogger youtuber and he picked Mitchell and Wagner as best choice players for the Raps based on 7-10 range. Pretty methodical breakdown and he had renamed BBIQ as something almost sports psychology-ish. Whatever he was calling it the point was the Raps covet analytics so much that the ability to make quick reads and have dna for schemes and other x's and other o's gives players value towards winning basketball. The choice of Wagner surprised me. Coming out of this you can see player culture fit is important in Toronto.

I think that same scout also had Barnes and Springer in his top 5 however.

My feeling on our pick is that we should swing for a star. I like Barnes' and Keon Johnson's potential outside of the consensus top 5 picks. They already have the D needed to fit on our team. But the question remains: will they ever add the offence?

[Dalek]

Garuba is 6'8. A C's game in a PF body. Defensive player. You can't take him that high. He's somebody that's 12-20 range. Top 10 should be offensive potential players.

I really like Garuba, but why I don't think he would do well in Toronto is that he needs the right conditions to succeed. Real Madrid does play him a lot with with Eddie Tavarez to help him with the rebounding and shot contesting. Those are two things Toronto absolutely needs help with. I honestly think Garuba only measures out as a wing. He is OG sized and probably will need to be a 3 and D guy in the future. The NBA is just too strong and big. OKC is a perfect fit where he could play beside Moses Brown or even Poku.

[Dalek]

I still think Tre Mann is being slept on a little too much. He was basically a PG prospect MCDonalds All American who at age 19 grew 2 more inches to be 6’5 now while adding 15-20lbs of muscle toward the end of the year, all while retaining his handle and poor man’s Trae Young-like step back arsenal and deep range. He fits the mold of other PG/combo guard bombers in the league like Jamal Murray whose pull up jumpers from all over the court are deadly weapons. He looks to be competitive. He’s a smooth athlete. Seems smart. Improved as the year went on. Not afraid of the moment. I really think he will end up a lotto pick.

I totally agree that this guy has the arsenal of shots to be effective with great OTD pullups and floaters and deep range. I actually just love his balance. He can be a Kyrie like dribbler where he he can do crazy stuff crossing his man but then be on balance to make a pass or shoot it. To me we already have that type of shooter in Gary Trent Jr. If you buy Tre Mann being a lead ballhandler then it would be interesting.

In some ways Tre Mann would be a bit of shift for Toronto as he is way more offensive minded and has a pretty slight build. We have seen how Flynn struggles to be effective mainly because he lacks strength at times. Not sure if Mann is strong enough to guard starters in the NBA. I feel like Tre Mann is less Jamal Murray and more like a slightly taller; similar wingspan to Davonte Graham.

I always frame prospects by how Masai/Bobby and Nurse lens of team defensive IQ, plays with tempo, ballmoving capability, and shotmaking ability. To me, Tre Mann doesn't quite fit the defense first identity in Toronto which is a tough sell for the FO. That's why I see guys like Ziaire, Moody, Mitchell and Springer making sense.

[CoinTossRoss31]

So I'm starting to turn around on drafting Mitchell. More and more I watch of him the more I seem to like. So this is my draft board if we are picking at #7


1. Keon Johnson

2. Moses Moody

---------

Tier 2:

3. Davion Mitchell
4. Bouknight
5. Senguin

Tier 3 :
Barnes
Josh Giddey
Springer
Wagner

I saw this scout interviewed by some Raptor blogger youtuber and he picked Mitchell and Wagner as best choice players for the Raps based on 7-10 range. Pretty methodical breakdown and he had renamed BBIQ as something almost sports psychology-ish. Whatever he was calling it the point was the Raps covet analytics so much that the ability to make quick reads and have dna for schemes and other x's and other o's gives players value towards winning basketball. The choice of Wagner surprised me. Coming out of this you can see player culture fit is important in Toronto.

I think that same scout also had Barnes and Springer in his top 5 however.

My feeling on our pick is that we should swing for a star. I like Barnes' and Keon Johnson's potential outside of the consensus top 5 picks. They already have the D needed to fit on our team. But the question remains: will they ever add the offence?

Agreed. I also think we will be taking a swing for the fences pick, and If not will be trading down