Bulls may have much bigger needs than PG

[dougthonus]

I’m totally on board with that plan IF Lavine blesses it and promises to re-sign if it doesn’t work.

We can’t have a free agency gamble cost us striking out and losing Lavine. This isn’t like trading Hinrich to get extra cap space to make a run at LeBron.

Maybe I'm overly aggressive, but I'm okay taking that risk vs the risk of not having any financial flexibility, not having much in the way of draft assets, and being a mid 40s win team.

[dougthonus]

I doubt that we did that trade for Theis if we weren’t planning on trying to resign him. He played well and beat out Thad and Lauri to start.

This makes sense in a way, except that I think we were hoping he'd boost us into the playoffs this year. With Zach's COVID problems that didn't happen. I think they looked at Brown as the long term piece.

Listening to KC and Rob Schaefer on Bulls Talk, and I think they both anticipate Theis leaving FWIW.

[BigJimFinn]

I still think Williams is a SF all the way. Roster construction be damned.

Williams' position is another key to this discussion. IMO, the difference between SF and PF has shrunk. I see more PF's taking on playmaking responsibilities and shooting 3's. On the one hand, maybe it's more about finding the best player to put next to Pat, whether he is a SF or PF and it won't impact Pat's role much. On the other hand, I don't think Pat is enough of a paint/rim protector to augment Vuc's deficiencies on defense - hence my prior post about keeping Theis at any cost.

Yeah, PF doesn't really exist as a specialist position anymore. Which one of Kawhi and PG is the PF? Who is starting PF on the Nets or Bucks? Suns, Utah or Sixers? The 4 is now basically your biggest wing, and practically all teams close with 4 (or even 5) guards/wings.
Only teams that want to play a defensively suspect center big minutes need another big next to him, or teams whose best big refuses to play center. It really isn't a recipe for success, and I doubt it would be for the Bulls.

[kodo]

I doubt that we did that trade for Theis if we weren’t planning on trying to resign him. He played well and beat out Thad and Lauri to start.

This makes sense in a way, except that I think we were hoping he'd boost us into the playoffs this year. With Zach's COVID problems that didn't happen. I think they looked at Brown as the long term piece.

Listening to KC and Rob Schaefer on Bulls Talk, and I think they both anticipate Theis leaving FWIW.

I feel it's worth noting this was a mailbag question, and answered "If I was GM of the Bulls..." and not reporting of any kind.

KC felt like we shouldn't match anticipating a big bidding war for Theis and he gets a huge contract, well in excess of $10M per. He brought up the Hornets. That makes zero sense to me. The Hornets have PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridges all playing the forward position. Hayward makes $30M next year, PJ needs a big contract, Miles needs a big contract, they would be the last team in the NBA to overpay Daniel Theis. That's not even taking into account they need to pay Devonte Graham a big contract.

AK doesn't have many leaks into his organization, but I think the best indicator of the org's view on Theis is probably from Donovan.

"We didn't get into maybe that depth of conversation (before trading for him)," Donovan said of his and management's talks about re-signing Theis this offseason. "But I would say in our conversations, there's no question that myself and Artūras and (general manager) Marc (Eversley) really like him (Theis) as a player. So I would think that our hope would be a long-term possibility.

"With free agency coming up and guys having the opportunity to make their own decisions, I understand that. But he's someone we really like a lot and feel like could be somebody that could be really good for us going forward."

I would expect he's resigned as long as we operate as a team above cap and his contract is around the MLE. Since he's a starter for Chicago but most teams see him as a bench player, I'd be surprised if other teams are willing to pay significantly more than Chicago for him.

[DuckIII]

I’m totally on board with that plan IF Lavine blesses it and promises to re-sign if it doesn’t work.

We can’t have a free agency gamble cost us striking out and losing Lavine. This isn’t like trading Hinrich to get extra cap space to make a run at LeBron.

Maybe I'm overly aggressive, but I'm okay taking that risk vs the risk of not having any financial flexibility, not having much in the way of draft assets, and being a mid 40s win team.

I’m typically like that as well. The big difference between us is that I think Williams is going to be an all star level two way player. Because of that I prioritize retaining Zach.

It’s not like Butler when we had him and no one, with no ability to add anyone. If we did not have Williams, or hell maybe even throw Coby in there as a young player who could break out (but I don’t), I’d be pushing to trade Lavine and start over.

[kodo]

I still think Williams is a SF all the way. Roster construction be damned.

Williams' position is another key to this discussion. IMO, the difference between SF and PF has shrunk. I see more PF's taking on playmaking responsibilities and shooting 3's. On the one hand, maybe it's more about finding the best player to put next to Pat, whether he is a SF or PF and it won't impact Pat's role much. On the other hand, I don't think Pat is enough of a paint/rim protector to augment Vuc's deficiencies on defense - hence my prior post about keeping Theis at any cost.

Yeah, PF doesn't really exist as a specialist position anymore. Which one of Kawhi and PG is the PF? Who is starting PF on the Nets or Bucks? Suns, Utah or Sixers? The 4 is now basically your biggest wing, and practically all teams close with 4 (or even 5) guards/wings.
Only teams that want to play a defensively suspect center big minutes need another big next to him, or teams whose best big refuses to play center. It really isn't a recipe for success, and I doubt it would be for the Bulls.

Yeah essentially the old PG/SG/etc. positions are meaningless these days, what matters is what you do on the P&R. The positions are
- P&R ballhandler
- P&R screener
- P&R wing

Patrick is a P&R wing, he doesn't handle the ball on it and he doesn't screen. He's a great catch & shoot guy in the corners, attacks the close out well when he doesn't travel, is great cutting.

It doesn't matter if he's the 3 or 4, you don't run a P&R with Williams so he's not a big, he's a wing.

[GoBlue72391]

I guess I don't agree with the premise of the thread. I think PG is pretty far and away the most important need.

You mention the Gafford trade looks poorly. Gafford didn't change as a player in 3 months time. He got more opportunity and can successfully run pick and rolls with a point guard that can get him the ball where he can succeed.

A great passing point guard is a little like a great QB. They're going to elevate everyone around them. Getting a great power forward and watching Coby White attempt to throw him the ball in the post or watch a pick and roll go nowhere isn't a successful approach IMO. Coby and Zach don't have the vision or ballhandling ability to do this. The Bulls were one of the worst teams in turnovers in the league. They desperately need someone that can manage the offense, and get the ball to guys in spots where they can do damage.

Bingo.

Hierarchy of Bulls needs:

1. Point guard.










2. Power Forward, maybe.

Small forward not listed at all.

I agree with 1, but unless PWill takes a big step forward, and it's no guarantee he does, we'll have a glaring hole at SF. A trio of PWill, TBJ, and Temple doesn't inspire confidence. There's a fair chance none of them are starting caliber players next season.

At PF we'll likely have some combination of Theis/Thad/Lauri, all 3 of which are starting caliber players to varying extents, with guys like PWill, Aminu, and possibly Simonovic filling in the spot minutes, so I'm less worried about PF than SF, but PG is clearly the biggest need.

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[GoBlue72391]

Forget about the positional needs, when I see this:

PG/SG: Coby
PG/SG/SF: LaVine / Temple / Sato
SG / SF: Brown
SF / PF: Williams / Aminu
PF / C: Thad
C: Vuc

I'm seeing that there is literally not a single player on this team who is even average at both offense and defense. Everyone is either only above average at one side and below on the other, or is below average to mediocre at best on both. Temple/Sato/Young are literally the closest things to it on this list. That is awful roster makeup for a supposed win now franchise.

This has to be the least two-way roster in the entire league right now. Just getting one good two-way player should be the priority. I really have no idea how you do that with the subpar free agent class and lack of cap room and draft assets.

Yeah, it's definitely a problem. Theis would probably be the closest thing to a two-way player if we retain him and obviously the hope is PWill can become that kind of player eventually. TBJ possibly has the potential as well.

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[GoBlue72391]

I doubt that we did that trade for Theis if we weren’t planning on trying to resign him. He played well and beat out Thad and Lauri to start.

This makes sense in a way, except that I think we were hoping he'd boost us into the playoffs this year. With Zach's COVID problems that didn't happen. I think they looked at Brown as the long term piece.

Listening to KC and Rob Schaefer on Bulls Talk, and I think they both anticipate Theis leaving FWIW.

Losing him would be a real gut punch. He seems like a good fit next to Vuch and he's one of the only guys on the team who plays with an edge.

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[Almost Retired]

Just a few things about the Coby - Zach backcourt:

When they were on the floor together:
Pre-trade, our OffRtg was 110.8, our DefRtg was 116.1 and our TO% was 15.8 (59.9 Ast%, 1.56 Ast/TO)
Post-trade, our OffRtg was 111.2, our DefRtg was 103.0 and our TO% was 11.8 (59.9 Ast%, 2.15 Ast/TO) (237 minutes)

The team was pretty good with a Coby/Zach backcourt after the trade, against a much tougher schedule than we had played before the trade.

Our Coby - Zach - Williams - Theis - Vucevic starting combo was pretty good as well. Though it's a small sample size of 48 minutes, our OffRtg was 110.9, our DefRtg was 107.8 and our TO% 12.9

Maybe we don't need Lonzo's defense as much as I thought? And maybe we don't need a "pure PG" as badly as most folks seem to think we do?

Great post. Maybe we just add Micic to start next to Zach and see how it goes for 20 or 30 games. Then we have Coby for our 6th man who can cover minutes off the bench at SG and at PG if we end up trading Sato. If we keep Sato then he and Coby form the backcourt for the bench squad. From the tape available on Micic it seem he's a better passer than Coby. He has size. He's a willing defender. Micic would come cheaper than Lonzo, though Lonzo is a better defender. But Micic, in my opinion, may be a better fit for us offensively.

[drosestruts]

I guess I don't agree with the premise of the thread. I think PG is pretty far and away the most important need.

You mention the Gafford trade looks poorly. Gafford didn't change as a player in 3 months time. He got more opportunity and can successfully run pick and rolls with a point guard that can get him the ball where he can succeed.

A great passing point guard is a little like a great QB. They're going to elevate everyone around them. Getting a great power forward and watching Coby White attempt to throw him the ball in the post or watch a pick and roll go nowhere isn't a successful approach IMO. Coby and Zach don't have the vision or ballhandling ability to do this. The Bulls were one of the worst teams in turnovers in the league. They desperately need someone that can manage the offense, and get the ball to guys in spots where they can do damage.

Bingo.

Hierarchy of Bulls needs:

1. Point guard.










2. Power Forward, maybe.

Small forward not listed at all.

What if your forward could be the player to elevate and get others involved?

I feel like people keep saying "we need a point guard" but I think it's more helpful to list what attributes/skills we're looking for in a player rather than focusing in on someone just because of their size or position.

Hierarchy of Bulls needs:

1. Increase free-throw attempts (Bulls were dead last in FTA)
2. Decrease our turnovers (Bulls were 27th in turnover)
3. Increase turnovers forced (Bulls were 27th in steals and 27th in blocks)
4. Score more (Bulls were 20th in PPG despite shooting the ball well [again - no free throws])

The Bulls were actually 6th overall in assists per game, the team shares the ball well.

Lesser needs that I think our still important areas that can be improved on:

5. Iso scoring (I love good team ball, but when it's not working or the defense is good who can you turn to to make something happen? I don't want to overly rely on iso players, but you need guys capable of creating something on their own)
6. Offensive rebounding (Bulls we're bottom half of the league in offensive rebounds per game, just like the low free throws this is a chance to score more points). Another note on OReb, Bulls gave up the 3rd most opponent rebounds per game.
7. Fast break points - Bulls ranked 20th in the league here.

To me - it's what player(s) best solve these problems, no matter what position they play.

[dougthonus]

I feel it's worth noting this was a mailbag question, and answered "If I was GM of the Bulls..." and not reporting of any kind.

KC felt like we shouldn't match anticipating a big bidding war for Theis and he gets a huge contract, well in excess of $10M per. He brought up the Hornets. That makes zero sense to me. The Hornets have PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridges all playing the forward position. Hayward makes $30M next year, PJ needs a big contract, Miles needs a big contract, they would be the last team in the NBA to overpay Daniel Theis. That's not even taking into account they need to pay Devonte Graham a big contract.

AK doesn't have many leaks into his organization, but I think the best indicator of the org's view on Theis is probably from Donovan.

I agree it wasn't reporting.

I also agree with both of their opinions though that Theis will be too expensive.

"We didn't get into maybe that depth of conversation (before trading for him)," Donovan said of his and management's talks about re-signing Theis this offseason. "But I would say in our conversations, there's no question that myself and Artūras and (general manager) Marc (Eversley) really like him (Theis) as a player. So I would think that our hope would be a long-term possibility.

"With free agency coming up and guys having the opportunity to make their own decisions, I understand that. But he's someone we really like a lot and feel like could be somebody that could be really good for us going forward."

I would expect he's resigned as long as we operate as a team above cap and his contract is around the MLE. Since he's a starter for Chicago but most teams see him as a bench player, I'd be surprised if other teams are willing to pay significantly more than Chicago for him.

I think his contract will end up being too big. We'll see what happens though, I agree if he ends up around the MLE, I'd consider keeping him as well, though it does kill the idea of having 10 year max room in 2022 which I'm not fond of. I think he's going to get closer to 15M per year though.

Also worth noting, the Bulls also said Lauri is an important part of the team moving forward too. As you said, I think AKME has been tight lipped about what their intentions are, so I would read any comments around this situation from them as PR stuff and most of the reporting as guesswork unless its coming from discussions with other teams and leaks on the other side.

[dougthonus]

I’m typically like that as well. The big difference between us is that I think Williams is going to be an all star level two way player. Because of that I prioritize retaining Zach.

It’s not like Butler when we had him and no one, with no ability to add anyone. If we did not have Williams, or hell maybe even throw Coby in there as a young player who could break out (but I don’t), I’d be pushing to trade Lavine and start over.

I think there is some chance that Williams could break out, but I don't think it is a particularly high chance or greater than the chance of a miracle in some other form. If Williams does break out next season, and you have Zach, Vuc, Williams, and Coby (say he just remains a solid bench scorer), that's a hell of a core for a legit star player to join and even in that scenario if I'm Zach.

So I guess the real concern would be that Williams breaks out, but he does so in two years instead of next year, and Zach bolts because we failed again last year and can't add anyone significant in the off-season, and the timing just doesn't quite work. That said, in the scenario I outlined, fair chance that Zach would recruit someone to Chicago IMO.

[DuckIII]

I guess I don't agree with the premise of the thread. I think PG is pretty far and away the most important need.

You mention the Gafford trade looks poorly. Gafford didn't change as a player in 3 months time. He got more opportunity and can successfully run pick and rolls with a point guard that can get him the ball where he can succeed.

A great passing point guard is a little like a great QB. They're going to elevate everyone around them. Getting a great power forward and watching Coby White attempt to throw him the ball in the post or watch a pick and roll go nowhere isn't a successful approach IMO. Coby and Zach don't have the vision or ballhandling ability to do this. The Bulls were one of the worst teams in turnovers in the league. They desperately need someone that can manage the offense, and get the ball to guys in spots where they can do damage.

Bingo.

Hierarchy of Bulls needs:

1. Point guard.










2. Power Forward, maybe.

Small forward not listed at all.

What if your forward could be the player to elevate and get others involved?

Sure. Point forwards are rare though and I don’t think LeBron or Luka are available.

I agree with many of your identified needs. A legit playmaker who defends helps with several of them. Further, many of those issues will fall on coaching, disciplined play and easier to target role players.

We don’t have 6 bullets in the gun. We have maybe 1 for something significant. The big swing has to be a point guard if it’s going to happen this summer. Then you nip and tuck the rest to tighten it up.

[sco]

Bingo.

Hierarchy of Bulls needs:

1. Point guard.










2. Power Forward, maybe.

Small forward not listed at all.

What if your forward could be the player to elevate and get others involved?

Sure. Point forwards are rare though and I don’t think LeBron or Luka are available.

I agree with many of your identified needs. A legit playmaker who defends helps with several of them. Further, many of those issues will fall on coaching, disciplined play and easier to target role players.

We don’t have 6 bullets in the gun. We have maybe 1 for something significant. The big swing has to be a point guard if it’s going to happen this summer. Then you nip and tuck the rest to tighten it up.

You know who was decent as a point-forward (although a big injury risk - but may come cheaply because of that) is Justise Winslow.

[d boy gentleman]

I'd imagine Theis returning for full MLE...

Theis gets more than that on the open market. He'll probably get 4yrs 60 million from another team.

[dougthonus]

Sure. Point forwards are rare though and I don’t think LeBron or Luka are available.

I agree with many of your identified needs. A legit playmaker who defends helps with several of them. Further, many of those issues will fall on coaching, disciplined play and easier to target role players.

We don’t have 6 bullets in the gun. We have maybe 1 for something significant. The big swing has to be a point guard if it’s going to happen this summer. Then you nip and tuck the rest to tighten it up.

What is your #1 bullet then? What would you do overall? Who is the PG you would pursue and at what do you have left?

My overall plan is:
No contracts that extend to 2022
42M cap room + Zach + Vuc + Pat + Coby, hope to add Beal or Kawhi, team looks like a legitimate contending team

That's the best single bullet solution I can come up with.

I do think there are higher floor solutions. Like I think I came up with a plan that was something like lose Thad/Sato/Aminu and you could keep Theis / bid on Ball(or some other PG around 20M), but then you have no wiggle room to do anything next year, and so I think those are also low ceiling solutions.

[WindyCityBorn]

I agree.

Our need for a PG is somewhat mitigated by our play style. We are a high assist team, and we run a lot of offense through our bigs - we are fortunate to have two bigs that can act as offensive hub.

The NBA is all about versatile forwards and always has been. There's a reason so few PG driven teams have won titles or even made the finals - at the end of the day, bigger more versatile players reign supreme.

So yes, I think we should aim for probably 2 forwards this offseason, especially since the FA crop of PGs is so lackluster.

We turn the ball over way too much. We need a real PG.

[HomoSapien]

I doubt that we did that trade for Theis if we weren’t planning on trying to resign him. He played well and beat out Thad and Lauri to start.

This makes sense in a way, except that I think we were hoping he'd boost us into the playoffs this year. With Zach's COVID problems that didn't happen. I think they looked at Brown as the long term piece.

Listening to KC and Rob Schaefer on Bulls Talk, and I think they both anticipate Theis leaving FWIW.

I would really be disappointed if we let Theis walk, because Gafford was always a solid rotation big man. If TBJ was the main reason for doing the trade, then I guess I'd understand but they all seemed genuinely high on Theis as well. He really had good chemistry with Zach in particular and was one of our few plus defenders. To me, it'd be a disaster if we don't make an effort to keep him.

[Tetlak]

I agree.

Our need for a PG is somewhat mitigated by our play style. We are a high assist team, and we run a lot of offense through our bigs - we are fortunate to have two bigs that can act as offensive hub.

The NBA is all about versatile forwards and always has been. There's a reason so few PG driven teams have won titles or even made the finals - at the end of the day, bigger more versatile players reign supreme.

So yes, I think we should aim for probably 2 forwards this offseason, especially since the FA crop of PGs is so lackluster.

We turn the ball over way too much. We need a real PG.

We had a better turnover rate and less turnovers per game than the 2015 73-win Steph led Warriors team.

They had possibly the greatest PG of all time.

High movement teams turn the ball over more. They also win more games.