Vrenz Bleijenbergh -Telenet Giants Antwerp - 2021 NBA Draft

Apoe · Post #41 » by **Apoe** » Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:36 pm

He has been playing Eurocup (10 games) in which he averaged .44/.38/.52 so i won't be to worried about the level of competition. He also won the award of Eurocup Rising Star. Anyway i would pick Wagner if i am going for the safe pick. If i am a team like OKC i take Vrenz.

Hal14 · Post #42 » by **Hal14** » Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:03 pm

Charm wrote:
Hal14 wrote:Curious what people think of Vrenz compared to Franz Wagner. Who would you draft?

In some ways they're similar but in some ways very different. Wagner appears to be much better defensively, compared to Vrenz who is much better offensively.

I feel like Wagner has a bigger edge defensively though, compared to a smaller edge for Vrenz offensively. Both good passers but Vrenz is a slightly better passer and Vrenz is a far better ball handler.

Vrenz is an inch taller and longer wingspan (Vrenz has a wingspan of 7'2") and Vrenz might even be a little bit quicker, he also seems more assertive on offense, more of an attacker, with the drive, shot and pass. Again, Wagner is a much better defender and Wagner is also 1 year younger. Vrezn has been going against tougher competition.

Which wing would you take?

Obviouwly Wagner is higher ranked by pretty much everyone, so he is the safer pick. But perhaps Vrenz has higher upside?

I'm not convinced that Vrenz has been going against tougher competition. And to the extent that he's faced tough competition, he's struggled horribly. Shooting splits .32/.24/.61 against teams above .500, which is just putrid. And if you look at the sub-500 teams in the Belgian League, they're full of nobodies. Vrenz is worth a 2nd round stash pick to see if he keeps developing, but Franz is more NBA-ready on both ends of the court.

Fair points.

On the flip side, while his shooting splits might not be so great, what player 6'10" or taller going against competition that's as good or better than Belgian Pro League who can move on the court, handle the ball, shoot, pass and block shots and do all of it looking very smooth/fluid has better shooting splits than Vrenz?

Wagner doesn't move as smooth/fluid as Vrenz, he's not as quick as Vrenz, Wagner is an inch shorter than Vrenz. Wagner also cannot drive or finish with his left hand - Vrenz can.

Wagner might be more polished/NBA ready today, but aren't GMs drafting for how these players project 2, 3, 4+. years from now? Vrenz can work on his shooting efficiency. But the quickness, athleticism and ability to move on the court, handle the ball, shoot and make insane pinpoint alley-oop passes from 30 feet from the basket - you can't teach that stuff..

Charm · Post #43 » by **Charm** » Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:40 pm

Apoe wrote:He has been playing Eurocup (10 games) in which he averaged .44/.38/.52 so i won't be to worried about the level of competition. He also won the award of Eurocup Rising Star. Anyway i would pick Wagner if i am going for the safe pick. If i am a team like OKC i take Vrenz.

I see your point, but it kind of reminds me of Jokubaitis's season. Starts off with a surprising run of quality games against tough competition, but then the rest of the season doesn't quite back it up. And also like Jokubaitis, as a guy who's turning 21 this fall, time is running out for those flashes of brilliance to translate into consistent production.

BlazersBroncos · Post #44 » by **BlazersBroncos** » Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:08 pm

This guy has OKC all over him IMO w/ their own SRP or the MIN SRP. Or trade up using both for a super late FRP and snag him.

Hal14 · Post #45 » by **Hal14** » Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:08 pm

Charm wrote:
Apoe wrote:He has been playing Eurocup (10 games) in which he averaged .44/.38/.52 so i won't be to worried about the level of competition. He also won the award of Eurocup Rising Star. Anyway i would pick Wagner if i am going for the safe pick. If i am a team like OKC i take Vrenz.

I see your point, but it kind of reminds me of Jokubaitis's season. Starts off with a surprising run of quality games against tough competition, but then the rest of the season doesn't quite back it up. And also like Jokubaitis, as a guy who's turning 21 this fall, time is running out for those flashes of brilliance to translate into consistent production.

time is running out?

Most NBA players play their best basketball between age 26-30....or even 27-31

Charm · Post #46 » by **Charm** » Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:17 pm

Hal14 wrote:
Charm wrote:
Apoe wrote:He has been playing Eurocup (10 games) in which he averaged .44/.38/.52 so i won't be to worried about the level of competition. He also won the award of Eurocup Rising Star. Anyway i would pick Wagner if i am going for the safe pick. If i am a team like OKC i take Vrenz.

I see your point, but it kind of reminds me of Jokubaitis's season. Starts off with a surprising run of quality games against tough competition, but then the rest of the season doesn't quite back it up. And also like Jokubaitis, as a guy who's turning 21 this fall, time is running out for those flashes of brilliance to translate into consistent production.

time is running out?

Most NBA players play their best basketball between age 26-30....or even 27-31

Yeah, but the aging curve levels off pretty quickly in the early 20's. Most guys improve more from 18-20 than they do from 20-27. There are exceptions, of course, which is why it's worth spending a pick on a guy like Vrenz. But big picture, he's still putting up negative offensive win shares against so-so competition in the Belgian League at age 20. He has to improve a lot over the next 2-3 years to go from where he is now to making a positive impact in the NBA, and with every passing year, the odds of him making that big leap get slimmer.

SNPA · Post #47 » by **SNPA** » Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:33 pm

Charm wrote:
Hal14 wrote:
Charm wrote:
I see your point, but it kind of reminds me of Jokubaitis's season. Starts off with a surprising run of quality games against tough competition, but then the rest of the season doesn't quite back it up. And also like Jokubaitis, as a guy who's turning 21 this fall, time is running out for those flashes of brilliance to translate into consistent production.

time is running out?

Most NBA players play their best basketball between age 26-30....or even 27-31

Yeah, but the aging curve levels off pretty quickly in the early 20's. Most guys improve more from 18-20 than they do from 20-27. There are exceptions, of course, which is why it's worth spending a pick on a guy like Vrenz. But big picture, he's still putting up negative offensive win shares against so-so competition in the Belgian League at age 20. He has to improve a lot over the next 2-3 years to go from where he is now to making a positive impact in the NBA, and with every passing year, the odds of him making that big leap get slimmer.

Offensive win shares is a terrible way to evaluate a young player in a foreign league. It’s a skills assessment and projection that’s needed. And it seems that it’s his shooting that slips sometimes, but shooting is one of the most improvable skills and he looks comfortable doing it. With NBA coaching and training I think the upside is still very high for him.

Hal14 · Post #48 » by **Hal14** » Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:40 pm

Charm wrote:
Hal14 wrote:
Charm wrote:
I see your point, but it kind of reminds me of Jokubaitis's season. Starts off with a surprising run of quality games against tough competition, but then the rest of the season doesn't quite back it up. And also like Jokubaitis, as a guy who's turning 21 this fall, time is running out for those flashes of brilliance to translate into consistent production.

time is running out?

Most NBA players play their best basketball between age 26-30....or even 27-31

Yeah, but the aging curve levels off pretty quickly in the early 20's. Most guys improve more from 18-20 than they do from 20-27. There are exceptions, of course, which is why it's worth spending a pick on a guy like Vrenz. But big picture, he's still putting up negative offensive win shares against so-so competition in the Belgian League at age 20. He has to improve a lot over the next 2-3 years to go from where he is now to making a positive impact in the NBA, and with every passing year, the odds of him making that big leap get slimmer.

Valid point. I feel like the period of most rapid development, I'd extend it from 18-20 to 18-22, maybe even 18-23. Then from there, players continue developing to I'd say 27-28 but each year beginning at 22/23 it's less and less improvement.

Also, keep in mind that you have to figure that most players are likely to see better development once they reach the NBA because they are now competing against (in practice and in games) better competition and also getting access to better coaching/training and better facilities, weight training, strength and conditioning, nutrition programs, etc.

Yes, all NBA players (for the most part) all have equal access to these things, but that is why teams will often draft guys based on who has higher upside rather than who the better player is today. Obviously you already know all of this, I'm just saying. I think Vrenz has a little more of a window for rapid development than you seem to indicate.

For example, I'm a Celtics fan. This season Robert Williams made a giant leap in his development (if he could have been more durable he would have been in the most improved player conversation) at age 23. We've got Langfrord and Nesmith, both age 21 who showed some good flashes this season but overall were very inconsistent - collectively as celtics fans we're all thinking next season at age 22 could be a big year where both of them could take a real leap. Pritchard meanwhile, i see as more of a finished product because he's 23 and also has less upside being only 6'1" with below average quickness/athleticism/explosiveness whereas Robert Williams is a very different 23 year old. He's 6'8" with a 7'6" wingspan, 40 inch vertical athletic freak of nature who has played less games over the past 4 years than Pritchard has. Jaylen Brown, he was age 20 as a rookie but we could barely play him. He was really bad. He was a very athletic, quick, explosive 6'6" wing, though with good upside. This season age 24 he was an all-star.

Charm · Post #49 » by **Charm** » Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:47 pm

SNPA wrote:
Charm wrote:
Hal14 wrote:time is running out?

Most NBA players play their best basketball between age 26-30....or even 27-31

Yeah, but the aging curve levels off pretty quickly in the early 20's. Most guys improve more from 18-20 than they do from 20-27. There are exceptions, of course, which is why it's worth spending a pick on a guy like Vrenz. But big picture, he's still putting up negative offensive win shares against so-so competition in the Belgian League at age 20. He has to improve a lot over the next 2-3 years to go from where he is now to making a positive impact in the NBA, and with every passing year, the odds of him making that big leap get slimmer.

Offensive win shares is a terrible way to evaluate a young player in a foreign league. It’s a skills assessment and projection that’s needed. And it seems that it’s his shooting that slips sometimes, but shooting is one of the most improvable skills and he looks comfortable doing it. With NBA coaching and training I think the upside is still very high for him.

I agree that he has an interesting ceiling! And I'm not going to defend win shares as perfect stat for evaluating international players (or any players). I'm just making the point that he has quite a ways to go to get to his ceiling. You'd ideally want him playing well enough that he's the clear best player on his Belgian League team, maybe getting some league MVP consideration, to feel confident that he's ready to be a quality NBA rotation guy. That's going to take significant improvement, which could happen all at once next season, or could take 2 or 3 seasons, or his development could plateau and he never reaches that level at all.

Charm · Post #50 » by **Charm** » Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:21 pm

Actually, how about Bonga as a comparison? He was much younger and more raw, but a similar kind of player IMO

SNPA · Post #51 » by **SNPA** » Sun Jul 4, 2021 11:15 pm

Read on Twitter

And so it begins. As a Kings fan I hate that OKC is interested.

Hal14 · Post #52 » by **Hal14** » Mon Jul 5, 2021 5:08 am

SNPA wrote:

Read on Twitter

And so it begins. As a Kings fan I hate that OKC is interested.

He's gonna go somewhere. between 29-49. it'll be interesting to see where he goes.

Wouldn't mind if he goes 45 to my Celtics..

Apparently (according to his Twitter bio) he's 6'11" now, not 6'10"

SNPA · Post #53 » by **SNPA** » Mon Jul 5, 2021 6:16 am

Hal14 wrote:
SNPA wrote:

Read on Twitter

And so it begins. As a Kings fan I hate that OKC is interested.

He's gonna go somewhere. between 29-49. it'll be interesting to see where he goes.

Wouldn't mind if he goes 45 to my Celtics..

Apparently (according to his Twitter bio) he's 6'11" now, not 6'10"

I can see OKC going as high as 18. I’d love for the Kings to get him at 39 but he could be gone. The more workouts he does the higher he goes. This guy has draft board climber tattooed on him.

Catchall · Post #54 » by **Catchall** » Mon Jul 5, 2021 5:40 pm

Vrenz's combination of length, mobility and passing remind me a bit of Andrei Kirilenko. I wouldn't mind seeing the Jazz take him at #30 as a replacement for Joe Ingles.

SNPA · Post #55 » by **SNPA** » Sun Jul 11, 2021 8:12 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/Vrenzzz

Making his way around. Landed in Sac for a workout on Monday. He isn’t lasting till the second round.

mademan · Post #56 » by **mademan** » Sun Jul 11, 2021 8:41 pm

Honest question, what makes a guy like Poku more of a unicorn than Vrenz? Dude moves and shoots like a SG at 6'10-6'11 and he looks like a better ball handler/passer coming out than Poku did

SNPA · Post #57 » by **SNPA** » Sun Jul 11, 2021 9:31 pm

mademan wrote:Honest question, what makes a guy like Poku more of a unicorn than Vrenz? Dude moves and shoots like a SG at 6'10-6'11 and he looks like a better ball handler/passer coming out than Poku did

Nothing. He is this year’s Poku. Hype just getting started a bit late.

Charm · Post #58 » by **Charm** » Sun Jul 11, 2021 9:39 pm

Poku was the youngest guy in the draft...Vrenz will be 21 on opening night. That's a pretty huge difference.

pad300 · Post #59 » by **pad300** » Sun Jul 11, 2021 10:00 pm

mademan wrote:Honest question, what makes a guy like Poku more of a unicorn than Vrenz? Dude moves and shoots like a SG at 6'10-6'11 and he looks like a better ball handler/passer coming out than Poku did

Look at blocks and rebounds. Poku looks like a big man, Vrenz gets guard level numbers.

Hal14 · Post #60 » by **Hal14** » Mon Jul 12, 2021 3:43 am

pad300 wrote:
mademan wrote:Honest question, what makes a guy like Poku more of a unicorn than Vrenz? Dude moves and shoots like a SG at 6'10-6'11 and he looks like a better ball handler/passer coming out than Poku did

Look at blocks and rebounds. Poku looks like a big man, Vrenz gets guard level numbers.

Vrenz' rebounding % this past season was 11.2%. That's not guard numbers, that's what many 4's average.

Pair that strong rebounding with an assist % of 22.2% which is crazy high for a non-PG, especially considering Vrenz had a low usage % of 21.4.

Only non-PG in this year's draft who put up that high of an assist % that I'm aware of is Scottie Barnes.

But Vrenz is a much better shooter than Barnes and much better rebounder...Vrenz also has better handle than Barnes and is 3 inches taller.

Now I'm not saying I have Vrenz higher than Barnes on my big board but I don't think Vrenz is really that far off..