Draft Thread Part 4

[Saciid11]

Man watching Donovan Mitchell warms me up to the idea Raptors drafting Davion Mitchell. I just don't see anyone outside of Cade and Mobley being much better pro then Davion Mitchell. Suggs is great, but is he really that much better .. especially the way Mitchell defends. Green is all about offensive out put, but the guy right is Zack Lavine ... a guy who has potential to great scorer, but can't defend. Kuminga is all about potential and those type of players usual have high bust potential too. At least with Davion is floor is bull dog lock down defender like Smart, but his ceiling is Donovan Mitchell...

I don't think Lavine is a legit comparison. Green is a lot better than Lavine at the same age. As for Green's defense, he's a little bit light in terms of weight right now but he exerts effort on that end, once he puts on weight I think he projects to be a good defender.

Lavine is the best comparison, but let's say someone like Beal ... I would rather have bull dog like Donovan Mitchell then guys like Beal or Lavine pure scorer who don't effect the game any other way then scoring. I want to know can Green play off the ball, can he be effective at the defensive end.

[OAKLEY_2]

My playoffs/draft hot take for the night is: Mobley will be the best player out of this draft just off his defense alone which is reminiscent of Gobert. The fact he has a jumper too should seal the deal on who the best prospect is

Defense. American spelling beause not in Canada or just internet medial afflicted. Just asking.

I use the American spelling because it's easier to remember.

Defense/Defensive is more consistent than Defence/Defensive

Cannot disagree with your logic. Most devices default to Amerk spell which is culturally egregious in an opinion brokering kinda way but I am so far from the border that the shadow doesn't cast this far afield. CP Style Book has a mix of Oxford and Webster dictionary. It is rare in places of higher learning to use say honor vs. honour but they do use it here and there.

[Mark_83]

My concern about drafting Mitchell is two-fold: 1) You're drafting him to eventually start next to Fred which means he'll be expected to guard the SG and not the PG.

The average size for a SG in the NBA is 6'5.4 with shoes with a 6'8 wingspan. Mitchell at 6'2 with shoes and a 6'5 wingspan is the size of an average PG.

http://analyticsgame.com/nba/average-nba-position-draft-measurements.html

Opposing shooting guards are going to have a much easier time seeing and shooting over him. Klay, Jaylen Brown, Harden, Paul George, these are the guys he's going to be guarding. All these guys are bigger than him.

2) My second concern is we don't know much about his reads in an off ball or team structure. It's nice that he can hound his man on the ball, but how is he on switches or making reads? Norm was a very good on-ball defender coming out of college, but turned out to be a not very good team defender. It's hard to tell before you have a guy running your sets at NBA speed.

[Reeko]

Man watching Donovan Mitchell warms me up to the idea Raptors drafting Davion Mitchell. I just don't see anyone outside of Cade and Mobley being much better pro then Davion Mitchell. Suggs is great, but is he really that much better .. especially the way Mitchell defends. Green is all about offensive out put, but the guy right is Zack Lavine ... a guy who has potential to great scorer, but can't defend. Kuminga is all about potential and those type of players usual have high bust potential too. At least with Davion is floor is bull dog lock down defender like Smart, but his ceiling is Donovan Mitchell...

I don't think Lavine is a legit comparison. Green is a lot better than Lavine at the same age. As for Green's defense, he's a little bit light in terms of weight right now but he exerts effort on that end, once he puts on weight I think he projects to be a good defender.

Lavine is the best comparison, but let's say someone like Beal ... I would rather have bull dog like Donovan Mitchell then guys like Beal or Lavine pure scorer who don't effect the game any other way then scoring. I want to know can Green play off the ball, can he be effective at the defensive end.

I really don't see where the Donovan Mitchell comparison for Davion is coming from, they are not similar players.

[billy_hoyle]

Man watching Donovan Mitchell warms me up to the idea Raptors drafting Davion Mitchell. I just don't see anyone outside of Cade and Mobley being much better pro then Davion Mitchell. Suggs is great, but is he really that much better .. especially the way Mitchell defends. Green is all about offensive out put, but the guy right is Zack Lavine ... a guy who has potential to great scorer, but can't defend. Kuminga is all about potential and those type of players usual have high bust potential too. At least with Davion is floor is bull dog lock down defender like Smart, but his ceiling is Donovan Mitchell...

I don't think Lavine is a legit comparison. Green is a lot better than Lavine at the same age. As for Green's defense, he's a little bit light in terms of weight right now but he exerts effort on that end, once he puts on weight I think he projects to be a good defender.

Is he alot better than Lavine at the same age?

If I remember correctly, everyone thought Zach would be a great defender in the NBA due to his length and quickness. That didn't really materialize.

What were their stats like?

At the time of the draft, I think there were alot of people saying Zach shoulda been a top 5 pick... But you know, there was already the narrative out there that Exum, Wiggins, A.Gordon and Jabari Parker were guaranteed stars...

[nowayguy]

Being an elite NBA defender is difficult, even with the ideal measurables and athleticism. I think it's fair to question Mitchell becoming a lock-down defender at the next level. I do feel pretty good about him being at least above average defensively, his feet are just too good.

[billy_hoyle]

I don't think Lavine is a legit comparison. Green is a lot better than Lavine at the same age. As for Green's defense, he's a little bit light in terms of weight right now but he exerts effort on that end, once he puts on weight I think he projects to be a good defender.

Lavine is the best comparison, but let's say someone like Beal ... I would rather have bull dog like Donovan Mitchell then guys like Beal or Lavine pure scorer who don't effect the game any other way then scoring. I want to know can Green play off the ball, can he be effective at the defensive end.

I really don't see where the Donovan Mitchell comparison for Davion is coming from, they are not similar players.

I don't see the comparison either. Davion seems more like a Lowry/Kemba hybrid. That's not Donovan Mitchell.

Donovan Mitchell is like Wade/Norm.

[Indeed]

My concern about drafting Mitchell is two-fold: 1) You're drafting him to eventually start next to Fred which means he'll be expected to guard the SG and not the PG.

The average size for a SG in the NBA is 6'5.4 with shoes with a 6'8 wingspan. Mitchell at 6'2 with shoes and a 6'5 wingspan is the size of an average PG.

http://analyticsgame.com/nba/average-nba-position-draft-measurements.html

Opposing shooting guards are going to have a much easier time seeing and shooting over him. Klay, Jaylen Brown, Harden, Paul George, these are the guys he's going to be guarding. All these guys are bigger than him.

2) My second concern is we don't know much about his reads in an off ball or team structure. It's nice that he can hound his man on the ball, but how is he on switches or making reads? Norm was a very good on-ball defender coming out of college, but turned out to be a not very good team defender. It's hard to tell before you have a guy running your sets at NBA speed.

Those are legit concerns. Wonder who we draft at 7th/8th/9th wouldn't have those concerns?

I might not have him at 7th, but I don't feel anyone we are drafting at 7th would standout to be better.

[raptor jesus]

If the Raptors stay where they are, I think Wagner will definitely be in the mix. Raps almost always opt for guys with strong advanced metrics, and Wagner stands out in that regard. He was 3rd in the country in DBPM, higher than Mobley, which is impressive for a wing. He also has some upside as a point forward. Raps could go super big by sliding OG to the 2.

[VanWest82]

My concern about drafting Mitchell is two-fold: 1) You're drafting him to eventually start next to Fred which means he'll be expected to guard the SG and not the PG.

The average size for a SG in the NBA is 6'5.4 with shoes with a 6'8 wingspan. Mitchell at 6'2 with shoes and a 6'5 wingspan is the size of an average PG.

http://analyticsgame.com/nba/average-nba-position-draft-measurements.html

Opposing shooting guards are going to have a much easier time seeing and shooting over him. Klay, Jaylen Brown, Harden, Paul George, these are the guys he's going to be guarding. All these guys are bigger than him.

Davion always took the hardest perimeter assignment which was often a wing. If he's guarding wings in the NBA it'll just be more of the same of what he did in college. His defensive fit would be the least of the issues.

2) My second concern is we don't know much about his reads in an off ball or team structure. It's nice that he can hound his man on the ball, but how is he on switches or making reads? Norm was a very good on-ball defender coming out of college, but turned out to be a not very good team defender. It's hard to tell before you have a guy running your sets at NBA speed.

I disagree that we don't know much about his defensive IQ. The nice thing about Mitchell playing three years is there's lots of tape. He's way up there making reads as an off ball defender.

Again, I really don't think any issues with Fred + Davion will be on defense. Those guys will be an absolute nightmare for opposing teams defensively. The issues, if there are any, will all be on offense given we lack a top option scorer and collectively struggle to play through contact and draw fouls. Those are two areas where Mitchell doesn't help.

[GreatWhiteStiff]

Would you guys trade our current draft equity for the fifth slot in the draft?

What do you mean current draft equity? 7th plus two second rounders for 5th?

I meant our first round pick before the draft lottery. Poorly explained on my part.

[gojoorange]

Interesting article on statistical draft comps:

https://theanalyst.com/na/2021/06/2021-nba-draft-prospects-player-comparisons/

[Saciid11]

Lavine is the best comparison, but let's say someone like Beal ... I would rather have bull dog like Donovan Mitchell then guys like Beal or Lavine pure scorer who don't effect the game any other way then scoring. I want to know can Green play off the ball, can he be effective at the defensive end.

I really don't see where the Donovan Mitchell comparison for Davion is coming from, they are not similar players.

I don't see the comparison either. Davion seems more like a Lowry/Kemba hybrid. That's not Donovan Mitchell.

Donovan Mitchell is like Wade/Norm.

I think he more like Mitchell, but even as Lowry and Kemba that would be steal at 7, hell it would be steal at top 3 if you got player who is allot like Lowry.

[gojoorange]

Does Davion project to be a better NBA player than Kris Dunn? I know that's an obvious comp but does his athleticism or IQ give him a higher ceiling?

[Saciid11]

Does Davion project to be a better NBA player than Kris Dunn? I know that's an obvious comp but does his athleticism or IQ give him a higher ceiling?

He definitely project to be better pro then Dunn, just eye test alone says Mitchell has tools to offensively and translate to NBA.

[Mark_83]

My concern about drafting Mitchell is two-fold: 1) You're drafting him to eventually start next to Fred which means he'll be expected to guard the SG and not the PG.

The average size for a SG in the NBA is 6'5.4 with shoes with a 6'8 wingspan. Mitchell at 6'2 with shoes and a 6'5 wingspan is the size of an average PG.

http://analyticsgame.com/nba/average-nba-position-draft-measurements.html

Opposing shooting guards are going to have a much easier time seeing and shooting over him. Klay, Jaylen Brown, Harden, Paul George, these are the guys he's going to be guarding. All these guys are bigger than him.

2) My second concern is we don't know much about his reads in an off ball or team structure. It's nice that he can hound his man on the ball, but how is he on switches or making reads? Norm was a very good on-ball defender coming out of college, but turned out to be a not very good team defender. It's hard to tell before you have a guy running your sets at NBA speed.

Those are legit concerns. Wonder who we draft at 7th/8th/9th wouldn't have those concerns?

I might not have him at 7th, but I don't feel anyone we are drafting at 7th would standout to be better.

Drafting is about risk assessment. You have to decide which risks your comfortable taking, what can be improved, etc. You can't improve measurements so you have to make sure the rewards are greater than the risk.

[gojoorange]

Does Davion project to be a better NBA player than Kris Dunn? I know that's an obvious comp but does his athleticism or IQ give him a higher ceiling?

He definitely project to be better pro then Dunn, just eye test alone says Mitchell has tools to offensively and translate to NBA.

My eyes were playing tricks on me then because Dunn was a beast at Providence.

It's hard to ignore the statistical similarities between them. Even the junior year shooting outlier is the same. Davion's had a higher percentage for an outlier season so maybe it's legit. I think players like Luka and OG have shown that it's possible to be a good 3 point shooter while not being the best free throw shooter. It's rare though. Makes me wonder if all Kris Dunn needed was a better development program when he first came into the league.

[Dalek]

I think what people dismiss with Davion is that while he patterns his game after Donavon Mitchell, he literally falls short. Donavon Mitchell tested out a 40 inch vert and a 6'10 wingspan back in his draft year. Norman Powell had similar types of pre-draft measurements. Even Marcus Smart was a crazy run jump athlete coming in. The crazy vert and wingspan help with finishing, making the jumpshot a little hard to close on. The NBA is a game of inches unless you just have outlier IQ and skill and speed.

I applaud Davion for raising his draft stock, but I have seen any high level finishing from him, and he just seems like a lower tier athlete coming in. It is why I prefer Keon over Davion and Springer.

Compare this Keon finish (and Suggs also)

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

to this Davion finish

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

Davion looks like a college athlete versus Keon who is an NBA level one. Against NBA length it makes all the difference.

[Indeed]

My concern about drafting Mitchell is two-fold: 1) You're drafting him to eventually start next to Fred which means he'll be expected to guard the SG and not the PG.

The average size for a SG in the NBA is 6'5.4 with shoes with a 6'8 wingspan. Mitchell at 6'2 with shoes and a 6'5 wingspan is the size of an average PG.

http://analyticsgame.com/nba/average-nba-position-draft-measurements.html

Opposing shooting guards are going to have a much easier time seeing and shooting over him. Klay, Jaylen Brown, Harden, Paul George, these are the guys he's going to be guarding. All these guys are bigger than him.

2) My second concern is we don't know much about his reads in an off ball or team structure. It's nice that he can hound his man on the ball, but how is he on switches or making reads? Norm was a very good on-ball defender coming out of college, but turned out to be a not very good team defender. It's hard to tell before you have a guy running your sets at NBA speed.

Those are legit concerns. Wonder who we draft at 7th/8th/9th wouldn't have those concerns?

I might not have him at 7th, but I don't feel anyone we are drafting at 7th would standout to be better.

Drafting is about risk assessment. You have to decide which risks your comfortable taking, what can be improved, etc. You can't improve measurements so you have to make sure the rewards are greater than the risk.

Davion has elite quickness, where others cannot learn nor close to his ability. He can change speed and accelerate to space and separation.

As mentioned, you are not picking someone perfect at 7th, you can choose between elite quickness vs elite wingspan/size vs raw. Someone like DeRozan who has average wingspan of SG, but below average quickness of SG, which also leads to bad defense (couldn't chase off screens). Like me, you can believe in someone raw (eg. Kai Jones, Garuba, etc.), but mental aspect is also not something easy to be changed (eg. Powell on his passing vision).

[Mark_83]

My concern about drafting Mitchell is two-fold: 1) You're drafting him to eventually start next to Fred which means he'll be expected to guard the SG and not the PG.

The average size for a SG in the NBA is 6'5.4 with shoes with a 6'8 wingspan. Mitchell at 6'2 with shoes and a 6'5 wingspan is the size of an average PG.

http://analyticsgame.com/nba/average-nba-position-draft-measurements.html

Opposing shooting guards are going to have a much easier time seeing and shooting over him. Klay, Jaylen Brown, Harden, Paul George, these are the guys he's going to be guarding. All these guys are bigger than him.

Davion always took the hardest perimeter assignment which was often a wing. If he's guarding wings in the NBA it'll just be more of the same of what he did in college. His defensive fit would be the least of the issues.

The average height of a college SG is 6'3. The average height of a college SF is 6'5. That's hardly "just more of the same" in the NBA, and we're not even talking about the difference in skill level yet.

https://www.athleticscholarships.net/basketballscholarships.htm

I disagree that we don't know much about his defensive IQ. The nice thing about Mitchell playing three years is there's lots of tape. He's way up there making reads as an off ball defender.

Norman Powell played 4 years at UCLA. He was considered one of the best peremiter defenders in the NCAA when he was drafted (was often compared to Tony Allen, one of the best defenders in the NBA).

Has good defensive awareness … Great perimeter defender … Keeps defenders contained on an island … Has lateral quickness and uses his upper body well as a wall between his man and the basket … Very physical and uses his strength to get over screens … Has quick feet and can defend both guard positions … Has quick hands and digs at the ball while defending on the perimeter or in post (averaged 1.8 steals this past season) … Active defender off the ball (positions himself well and denies passing lanes) … Uses his 6-11 wingspan in the passing lanes, to effectively contest shots and defend at the rim …

Despite this scouting report, he's been a solid but not great on ball defender, and a below average team defender. No one can argue that Norm is low-IQ, but it's about instincts not effort. You can't just assume that defense will translate from the NCAA to the next level, especially when a guy is most known for harrassing on-ball coverage. There were many college "defensive stoppers" who never lived up to their billing in the NBA.