Alperen Şengün

[Ruzious]

Wow, I love this discussion. You guys are really good at this - probably better than you realize. Carry on.

[SNPA]

Let’s assume he is a solid defensive center and good offensive one. That’s still not what you want in a starting center, where you want either a defensive stud and/or star scorer. I think he is an NBA player and likely a skilled one that’s better on D than some anticipated but his archetype isn’t that valuable compared to others. He’ll go lotto and the team picking him will likely be happy though.

[EvanZ]

And like it or not, my line was not 'x' is the average size of the 10 best starting nba centers, it was that there are starting centers with measurements similar to Sengun's.

But man, that's the key point here. You have to have the combination of length and athletic ability. He is not athletic enough where he can make up for the disparity in length. So why is everyone here talking about him as a *starting center*? He's clearly not. He's a 4 who if things pan out really well, might move up to 5 for some small ball lineups. But he's not going to be a starting 5 on a *good* team. That ain't happening. He might be a starting center *at some point* for some **** team. But who cares? He's clearly a 4 that needs to be good *as a 4*.

I think you might be overestimating how good the average starting center in the NBA is. I think Sengun is more skilled than guys like Zeller, for example, so I think he's got a good chance at being an above average starting center with a really high end outcome of an offensive hub like Sabonis. That seems like an interesting player worth talking about.

When did I say he's not an interesting player? He's 10th on my board right now.

What he's not is a starting center. That's what we're talking about. He's a 4. And he can be a good 4. He doesn't need to be a center to be good, I think that's where we are disagreeing.

[babyjax13]

But man, that's the key point here. You have to have the combination of length and athletic ability. He is not athletic enough where he can make up for the disparity in length. So why is everyone here talking about him as a *starting center*? He's clearly not. He's a 4 who if things pan out really well, might move up to 5 for some small ball lineups. But he's not going to be a starting 5 on a *good* team. That ain't happening. He might be a starting center *at some point* for some **** team. But who cares? He's clearly a 4 that needs to be good *as a 4*.

I think you might be overestimating how good the average starting center in the NBA is. I think Sengun is more skilled than guys like Zeller, for example, so I think he's got a good chance at being an above average starting center with a really high end outcome of an offensive hub like Sabonis. That seems like an interesting player worth talking about.

When did I say he's not an interesting player? He's 10th on my board right now.

What he's not is a starting center. That's what we're talking about. He's a 4. And he can be a good 4. He doesn't need to be a center to be good, I think that's where we are disagreeing.

Fair enough, it will be interesting to see his measurements, growing a bit would certainly boost his draft stock.

[Hal14]

Let’s assume he is a solid defensive center and good offensive one. That’s still not what you want in a starting center, where you want either a defensive stud and/or star scorer. I think he is an NBA player and likely a skilled one that’s better on D than some anticipated but his archetype isn’t that valuable compared to others. He’ll go lotto and the team picking him will likely be happy though.

How many 18 year old centers are considered a "defensive stud" and/or a "star scorer"?

Jokic at age 18 only averaged 7 points and 5 rebounds overseas

Gobert at age 18 played in exactly ONE game professionaly and blocked 0 shots that game

Embiid at age 18 I can't find any stats for him. His 1 season in college he was age 20 and he only averaged 11 points a game. Sengun put up better numbers at age 18 while facing better competition than Embiid put up at age 20 facing weaker competition

Bam at age 18 was in prep school. His 1 year of college ball at age 19 he only averaged 13 points and 1.5 blocks per game. So Sengun put up better numbers at 18 while facing better competion than Bam put up at age 19 facing weaker competition

Towns at age 18 was in high school. Towns 1 year of college ball. at age 19 he put up 10 points, 6.7 rebs, 2.4 blocks. compared to Sengun who at age 18 (while facing better competition) put up 19 points, 8.7 rebs and 1.5 blocks. To be fair, Sengun did it in 28 mins a game compared to just 21 mins a game for Towns. So if you look at per 36 minute numbers Towns is much higher in blocks, rebounds about even, but still a sizable edge for Sengun in scoring, again despite Sengun being 1 year younger and facing better competition. You also have to ask the question, why did Towns only play 21 mins a game? That would be a red flag. for me, that he could only play that amount at age 19, but Sengun was able to handle more of a workflow, playing 28 mins a game vs better competition and still putting up good numbers. Towns was 6'11", 248 lbs when he got drafted. Sengun is 6'10", 240 lbs. Towns is known as a big who can shoot 3's now but at age 19 in college he only shot 25% from 3 on 0.2 attempts per game. It wasn't until his 2nd year in the NBA at age 21 that he got to be a 36% (NBA league average) shooter from 3 on 3 attempts per game. Sengun although a low % from now now, shows flashes of being able to hit them (even off the dribble and step backs) and with a crazy high FT% it's not a stretch to see him making a similar trajectory as a 3 point shooter over the next 2-3 years that Towns made..

[Charm]

People still haven't wrapped their heads around how productive Sengun has been relative to other elite 18-year-olds. Zion's like the only guy who was roughly in the same ballpark.

[Hal14]

But man, that's the key point here. You have to have the combination of length and athletic ability. He is not athletic enough where he can make up for the disparity in length. So why is everyone here talking about him as a *starting center*? He's clearly not. He's a 4 who if things pan out really well, might move up to 5 for some small ball lineups. But he's not going to be a starting 5 on a *good* team. That ain't happening. He might be a starting center *at some point* for some **** team. But who cares? He's clearly a 4 that needs to be good *as a 4*.

I think you might be overestimating how good the average starting center in the NBA is. I think Sengun is more skilled than guys like Zeller, for example, so I think he's got a good chance at being an above average starting center with a really high end outcome of an offensive hub like Sabonis. That seems like an interesting player worth talking about.

When did I say he's not an interesting player? He's 10th on my board right now.

What he's not is a starting center. That's what we're talking about. He's a 4. And he can be a good 4. He doesn't need to be a center to be good, I think that's where we are disagreeing.

Sengun is 6'10", 240 lbs with very good post up moves, can rebound and block shots at a high level. That may have been a description of a 4 10-20+ years ago but not in the 2021 NBA.

Guys like Karl Malone and Kevin McHale would be 5's if they played today.

These are 4's in 2021:

Robert Covington
Jae Crowder
Bogdanovic/O'Neale/Ingles
Kevin Durant/Jeff Green
John Collins
Anthony Davis
Jayson Tatum
Tobias Harris
Pascal Siakam
Sabonis
PJ Washington
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Marcus Morris
Keldon Johnson
Jaren Jackson
Daniel Theis
Giannis
Rui Hachimura
Larry Nance Jr
Trevor Ariza
Jerami Grant

Out of these 25 guys, the only ones who are Sengun's size or bigger are:

Sabonis - he's only a 4 because of the team he's on which has Turner. Most teams Sabonis is a 5

Davis - ends up playing a ton of minutes at center for the lakers because the double big lineup doesn't work. Lane is too clogged when they have him and Harrell or him and drummond out there together, and team is too slow if they have him and gason out there together, team is at its best Like last year for the majority of the playoffs) with AD at center

Theis - let's be real. he's too slow to play the 4. As a celtics fan, it was painful to watch when we had him + thompson or him + robert williams out there together this season - we were too slow

Giannis - let's be real. he's a freak. there's a reason they call him the greek freak. a guy with his size, quickness, athleticism and skill is an anomaly. Not to mention, when he was drafted he was only 6'9", 190 lbs so he wouldn't have been in this section back then..

Jackson - Probably the worst player on the list (along with theis), he only started 4 games all year for memphis.

That's 5 guys out of 25 who are same size or bigger than Sengun. So the other 20, Sengun is bigger - most of those 19, Sengun is MUCH bigger.

Sengun is a 5. He would have been a 4 if this was 20-30 years ago. But in 2021, your lineup would be too slow and the spacing would be bad if you had him at the 4.

[SNPA]

Let’s assume he is a solid defensive center and good offensive one. That’s still not what you want in a starting center, where you want either a defensive stud and/or star scorer. I think he is an NBA player and likely a skilled one that’s better on D than some anticipated but his archetype isn’t that valuable compared to others. He’ll go lotto and the team picking him will likely be happy though.

How many 18 year old centers are considered a "defensive stud" and/or a "star scorer"?

Jokic at age 18 only averaged 7 points and 5 rebounds overseas

Gobert at age 18 played in exactly ONE game professionaly and blocked 0 shots that game

Embiid at age 18 I can't find any stats for him. His 1 season in college he was age 20 and he only averaged 11 points a game. Sengun put up better numbers at age 18 while facing better competition than Embiid put up at age 20 facing weaker competition

Bam at age 18 was in prep school. His 1 year of college ball at age 19 he only averaged 13 points and 1.5 blocks per game. So Sengun put up better numbers at 18 while facing better competion than Bam put up at age 19 facing weaker competition

Towns at age 18 was in high school. Towns 1 year of college ball. at age 19 he put up 10 points, 6.7 rebs, 2.4 blocks. compared to Sengun who at age 18 (while facing better competition) put up 19 points, 8.7 rebs and 1.5 blocks. To be fair, Sengun did it in 28 mins a game compared to just 21 mins a game for Towns. So if you look at per 36 minute numbers Towns is much higher in blocks, rebounds about even, but still a sizable edge for Sengun in scoring, again despite Sengun being 1 year younger and facing better competition. You also have to ask the question, why did Towns only play 21 mins a game? That would be a red flag. for me, that he could only play that amount at age 19, but Sengun was able to handle more of a workflow, playing 28 mins a game vs better competition and still putting up good numbers. Towns was 6'11", 248 lbs when he got drafted. Sengun is 6'10", 240 lbs. Towns is known as a big who can shoot 3's now but at age 19 in college he only shot 25% from 3 on 0.2 attempts per game. It wasn't until his 2nd year in the NBA at age 21 that he got to be a 36% (NBA league average) shooter from 3 on 3 attempts per game. Sengun although a low % from now now, shows flashes of being able to hit them (even off the dribble and step backs) and with a crazy high FT% it's not a stretch to see him making a similar trajectory as a 3 point shooter over the next 2-3 years that Towns made..

I’m not saying he won’t be good. I’m just saying that archetype isn’t as valuable as others. It will take specific roster construction to maximize him. Maybe he is good enough that it’s worth building a team, at least in part, around him. But it’s a serious commitment.

[Hal14]

Let’s assume he is a solid defensive center and good offensive one. That’s still not what you want in a starting center, where you want either a defensive stud and/or star scorer. I think he is an NBA player and likely a skilled one that’s better on D than some anticipated but his archetype isn’t that valuable compared to others. He’ll go lotto and the team picking him will likely be happy though.

How many 18 year old centers are considered a "defensive stud" and/or a "star scorer"?

Jokic at age 18 only averaged 7 points and 5 rebounds overseas

Gobert at age 18 played in exactly ONE game professionaly and blocked 0 shots that game

Embiid at age 18 I can't find any stats for him. His 1 season in college he was age 20 and he only averaged 11 points a game. Sengun put up better numbers at age 18 while facing better competition than Embiid put up at age 20 facing weaker competition

Bam at age 18 was in prep school. His 1 year of college ball at age 19 he only averaged 13 points and 1.5 blocks per game. So Sengun put up better numbers at 18 while facing better competion than Bam put up at age 19 facing weaker competition

Towns at age 18 was in high school. Towns 1 year of college ball. at age 19 he put up 10 points, 6.7 rebs, 2.4 blocks. compared to Sengun who at age 18 (while facing better competition) put up 19 points, 8.7 rebs and 1.5 blocks. To be fair, Sengun did it in 28 mins a game compared to just 21 mins a game for Towns. So if you look at per 36 minute numbers Towns is much higher in blocks, rebounds about even, but still a sizable edge for Sengun in scoring, again despite Sengun being 1 year younger and facing better competition. You also have to ask the question, why did Towns only play 21 mins a game? That would be a red flag. for me, that he could only play that amount at age 19, but Sengun was able to handle more of a workflow, playing 28 mins a game vs better competition and still putting up good numbers. Towns was 6'11", 248 lbs when he got drafted. Sengun is 6'10", 240 lbs. Towns is known as a big who can shoot 3's now but at age 19 in college he only shot 25% from 3 on 0.2 attempts per game. It wasn't until his 2nd year in the NBA at age 21 that he got to be a 36% (NBA league average) shooter from 3 on 3 attempts per game. Sengun although a low % from now now, shows flashes of being able to hit them (even off the dribble and step backs) and with a crazy high FT% it's not a stretch to see him making a similar trajectory as a 3 point shooter over the next 2-3 years that Towns made..

I’m not saying he won’t be good. I’m just saying that archetype isn’t as valuable as others. It will take specific roster construction to maximize him. Maybe he is good enough that it’s worth building a team, at least in part, around him. But it’s a serious commitment.

I'll give you that. The archetype thing is the only downside with Sengun, and only reason why he isn't a sure-fire top 10 pick.

6'10", 240 lbs with good but not great athleticism, good but not great rim protection, good but not great quickness, has potential to develop into outside shooter but not there yet - it's an archetype that is kind of unique.

If I'm Sengun, I'm studying the heck out of Anthony Davis film. Davis is pretty close to sengun in terms of height and weight. Sengun shows flashes of being able to hit shots, take people off the dribble, run the floor, play good D inside. Davis is pretty athletic but Sengun is at least close to him in terms of athleticism. Davis used to be a perfect stretch 4, but has added some weight, and. with the way the NBA has evolved, he's really now more of a stretch 5. Sengun could end up being an AD type guy if he keeps working hard.

But with that being said, yeah, it's not an archetype we are seeing a lot of..

[EvanZ]

If I'm Sengun, I'm studying the heck out of Anthony Davis film. Davis is pretty close to sengun in terms of height and weight. Sengun shows flashes of being able to hit shots, take people off the dribble, run the floor, play good D inside. Davis is pretty athletic but Sengun is at least close to him in terms of athleticism.

I'm being serious here. If you think Anthony Davis and Sengun are even remotely comparable as prospects, you should really consider finding a new hobby.

Davis is *pretty* athletic???

"Pretty athletic"

[Hal14]

If I'm Sengun, I'm studying the heck out of Anthony Davis film. Davis is pretty close to sengun in terms of height and weight. Sengun shows flashes of being able to hit shots, take people off the dribble, run the floor, play good D inside. Davis is pretty athletic but Sengun is at least close to him in terms of athleticism.

I'm being serious here. If you think Anthony Davis and Sengun are even remotely comparable as prospects, you should really consider finding a new hobby.

Davis is *pretty* athletic???

"Pretty athletic"

1) I think Sengun can be a poor man's Anthony davis. Is that better?

2) Keep in mind, Sengun is only 18 and winning league MVP in a professional league. When Davis was 18 he was playing against high school kids.

This was Davis at age 18:

Watch on YouTube

This is Sengun at age 18:

Watch on YouTube

Are they really that different?

3) If you can't have a discussion without coming across overly arrogant, pompous and talking down to people, maybe you're the one who should find a new hobby.

[Charm]

It's funny that some people think an unathletic nothing-special 18-year-old could win MVP in Turkey. Probably the same people who thought Doncic was an unathletic nothing-special wing a few years ago.

[EMG518]

Let’s assume he is a solid defensive center and good offensive one. That’s still not what you want in a starting center, where you want either a defensive stud and/or star scorer. I think he is an NBA player and likely a skilled one that’s better on D than some anticipated but his archetype isn’t that valuable compared to others. He’ll go lotto and the team picking him will likely be happy though.

How many 18 year old centers are considered a "defensive stud" and/or a "star scorer"?

Jokic at age 18 only averaged 7 points and 5 rebounds overseas

Gobert at age 18 played in exactly ONE game professionaly and blocked 0 shots that game

Embiid at age 18 I can't find any stats for him. His 1 season in college he was age 20 and he only averaged 11 points a game. Sengun put up better numbers at age 18 while facing better competition than Embiid put up at age 20 facing weaker competition

Bam at age 18 was in prep school. His 1 year of college ball at age 19 he only averaged 13 points and 1.5 blocks per game. So Sengun put up better numbers at 18 while facing better competion than Bam put up at age 19 facing weaker competition

Towns at age 18 was in high school. Towns 1 year of college ball. at age 19 he put up 10 points, 6.7 rebs, 2.4 blocks. compared to Sengun who at age 18 (while facing better competition) put up 19 points, 8.7 rebs and 1.5 blocks. To be fair, Sengun did it in 28 mins a game compared to just 21 mins a game for Towns. So if you look at per 36 minute numbers Towns is much higher in blocks, rebounds about even, but still a sizable edge for Sengun in scoring, again despite Sengun being 1 year younger and facing better competition. You also have to ask the question, why did Towns only play 21 mins a game? That would be a red flag. for me, that he could only play that amount at age 19, but Sengun was able to handle more of a workflow, playing 28 mins a game vs better competition and still putting up good numbers. Towns was 6'11", 248 lbs when he got drafted. Sengun is 6'10", 240 lbs. Towns is known as a big who can shoot 3's now but at age 19 in college he only shot 25% from 3 on 0.2 attempts per game. It wasn't until his 2nd year in the NBA at age 21 that he got to be a 36% (NBA league average) shooter from 3 on 3 attempts per game. Sengun although a low % from now now, shows flashes of being able to hit them (even off the dribble and step backs) and with a crazy high FT% it's not a stretch to see him making a similar trajectory as a 3 point shooter over the next 2-3 years that Towns made..

It's not apples to apples. College is a much slower pace and those guys weren't getting many minutes. I haven't looked it up but I don't remember Embiid or Towns playing more than like 25 minutes a game and they are beholden to the system they are in. Longer shot clocks, weaker point guard play, packed paints. It's just different. If you watched Embiid in college though he was getting Hakeem comps. Just saying.

[PhilBlackson]

If I'm Sengun, I'm studying the heck out of Anthony Davis film. Davis is pretty close to sengun in terms of height and weight. Sengun shows flashes of being able to hit shots, take people off the dribble, run the floor, play good D inside. Davis is pretty athletic but Sengun is at least close to him in terms of athleticism.

I'm being serious here. If you think Anthony Davis and Sengun are even remotely comparable as prospects, you should really consider finding a new hobby.

Davis is *pretty* athletic???

"Pretty athletic"

1) I think Sengun can be a poor man's Anthony davis. Is that better?

2) Keep in mind, Sengun is only 18 and winning league MVP in a professional league. When Davis was 18 he was playing against high school kids.

This was Davis at age 18:

Watch on YouTube

This is Sengun at age 18:

Watch on YouTube

Are they really that different?

3) If you can't have a discussion without coming across overly arrogant, pompous and talking down to people, maybe you're the one who should find a new hobby.

Twins like Danny DeVito and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Good call!

[baldur]

If I'm Sengun, I'm studying the heck out of Anthony Davis film. Davis is pretty close to sengun in terms of height and weight. Sengun shows flashes of being able to hit shots, take people off the dribble, run the floor, play good D inside. Davis is pretty athletic but Sengun is at least close to him in terms of athleticism.

I'm being serious here. If you think Anthony Davis and Sengun are even remotely comparable as prospects, you should really consider finding a new hobby.

Davis is *pretty* athletic???

"Pretty athletic"

Your alperen hate is unreal. Why?

[EMG518]

If I'm Sengun, I'm studying the heck out of Anthony Davis film. Davis is pretty close to sengun in terms of height and weight. Sengun shows flashes of being able to hit shots, take people off the dribble, run the floor, play good D inside. Davis is pretty athletic but Sengun is at least close to him in terms of athleticism.

I'm being serious here. If you think Anthony Davis and Sengun are even remotely comparable as prospects, you should really consider finding a new hobby.

Davis is *pretty* athletic???

"Pretty athletic"

Your alperen hate is unreal. Why?

Whether he has something against Segun or not talking about the two as prospects together makes no sense. AD is a game changer defensively which has been apparent since he was a prospect and was getting KG comps and a sure fire #1 pick and franchise player. They aren't remotely the same level of athelticism or length. Segun has slow feet, he is not going to be able to guard anyone on the perimeter. The comp makes no sense. Someone who will be a liability defensively vs someone whom is one of the best in the league.

[Charm]

Let’s assume he is a solid defensive center and good offensive one. That’s still not what you want in a starting center, where you want either a defensive stud and/or star scorer. I think he is an NBA player and likely a skilled one that’s better on D than some anticipated but his archetype isn’t that valuable compared to others. He’ll go lotto and the team picking him will likely be happy though.

How many 18 year old centers are considered a "defensive stud" and/or a "star scorer"?

Jokic at age 18 only averaged 7 points and 5 rebounds overseas

Gobert at age 18 played in exactly ONE game professionaly and blocked 0 shots that game

Embiid at age 18 I can't find any stats for him. His 1 season in college he was age 20 and he only averaged 11 points a game. Sengun put up better numbers at age 18 while facing better competition than Embiid put up at age 20 facing weaker competition

Bam at age 18 was in prep school. His 1 year of college ball at age 19 he only averaged 13 points and 1.5 blocks per game. So Sengun put up better numbers at 18 while facing better competion than Bam put up at age 19 facing weaker competition

Towns at age 18 was in high school. Towns 1 year of college ball. at age 19 he put up 10 points, 6.7 rebs, 2.4 blocks. compared to Sengun who at age 18 (while facing better competition) put up 19 points, 8.7 rebs and 1.5 blocks. To be fair, Sengun did it in 28 mins a game compared to just 21 mins a game for Towns. So if you look at per 36 minute numbers Towns is much higher in blocks, rebounds about even, but still a sizable edge for Sengun in scoring, again despite Sengun being 1 year younger and facing better competition. You also have to ask the question, why did Towns only play 21 mins a game? That would be a red flag. for me, that he could only play that amount at age 19, but Sengun was able to handle more of a workflow, playing 28 mins a game vs better competition and still putting up good numbers. Towns was 6'11", 248 lbs when he got drafted. Sengun is 6'10", 240 lbs. Towns is known as a big who can shoot 3's now but at age 19 in college he only shot 25% from 3 on 0.2 attempts per game. It wasn't until his 2nd year in the NBA at age 21 that he got to be a 36% (NBA league average) shooter from 3 on 3 attempts per game. Sengun although a low % from now now, shows flashes of being able to hit them (even off the dribble and step backs) and with a crazy high FT% it's not a stretch to see him making a similar trajectory as a 3 point shooter over the next 2-3 years that Towns made..

It's not apples to apples. College is a much slower pace and those guys weren't getting many minutes. I haven't looked it up but I don't remember Embiid or Towns playing more than like 25 minutes a game and they are beholden to the system they are in. Longer shot clocks, weaker point guard play, packed paints. It's just different. If you watched Embiid in college though he was getting Hakeem comps. Just saying.

Not hard to find direct comparison points for NCAA->Turkey. Here's how scoring rates have changed for some prominent bigs (last year in NCAA to this year in Turkey, per 40 pace adjusted)

Kyle Wiltjer 24.8->22.9
Johnny O'Bryant 19.6->17.8
Kyle O'Quinn 20.2->19.7
Gabe Olaseni 17.6->19.5
Brock Motum 22.4->19.1
Johnathan Williams 18.4->16.9
Raymar Morgan 17.0->24.1
Amile Jefferson 14.8->19.1
Kenny Kadji 18.4->21.3
Grant Jerrett 11.5->17.9
Johnny Hamilton 18.0->17.4
DJ White 20.9->17.0
Josh Owens 17.3->12.2
Perry Jones 18.0->10.9
Ryan Luther 13.7->16.9
Chris Singleton 17.3->15.6
Darion Atkins 12.8->16.4

As you can see, some go up and some go down but most don't deviate too far from their NCAA scoring rate. The cases where scoring does increase dramatically (e.g. one-and-done Grant Jerrett) generally reflect actual improvement by the player, not easier scoring in Turkey.

18-year-old Sengun, with 26.6 points per 40 pace adjusted, outscored everyone on this list. He also had a higher assist rate than everyone on this list. I feel pretty confident that he would've put up similar numbers if he'd been an NCAA freshman...that's probably even a touch conservative.

[EvanZ]

If I'm Sengun, I'm studying the heck out of Anthony Davis film. Davis is pretty close to sengun in terms of height and weight. Sengun shows flashes of being able to hit shots, take people off the dribble, run the floor, play good D inside. Davis is pretty athletic but Sengun is at least close to him in terms of athleticism.

I'm being serious here. If you think Anthony Davis and Sengun are even remotely comparable as prospects, you should really consider finding a new hobby.

Davis is *pretty* athletic???

"Pretty athletic"

Your alperen hate is unreal. Why?

You're joking right? I already said he's 10th on my board. But he is nothing like Anthony Davis. NOTHING.

[EMG518]

How many 18 year old centers are considered a "defensive stud" and/or a "star scorer"?

Jokic at age 18 only averaged 7 points and 5 rebounds overseas

Gobert at age 18 played in exactly ONE game professionaly and blocked 0 shots that game

Embiid at age 18 I can't find any stats for him. His 1 season in college he was age 20 and he only averaged 11 points a game. Sengun put up better numbers at age 18 while facing better competition than Embiid put up at age 20 facing weaker competition

Bam at age 18 was in prep school. His 1 year of college ball at age 19 he only averaged 13 points and 1.5 blocks per game. So Sengun put up better numbers at 18 while facing better competion than Bam put up at age 19 facing weaker competition

Towns at age 18 was in high school. Towns 1 year of college ball. at age 19 he put up 10 points, 6.7 rebs, 2.4 blocks. compared to Sengun who at age 18 (while facing better competition) put up 19 points, 8.7 rebs and 1.5 blocks. To be fair, Sengun did it in 28 mins a game compared to just 21 mins a game for Towns. So if you look at per 36 minute numbers Towns is much higher in blocks, rebounds about even, but still a sizable edge for Sengun in scoring, again despite Sengun being 1 year younger and facing better competition. You also have to ask the question, why did Towns only play 21 mins a game? That would be a red flag. for me, that he could only play that amount at age 19, but Sengun was able to handle more of a workflow, playing 28 mins a game vs better competition and still putting up good numbers. Towns was 6'11", 248 lbs when he got drafted. Sengun is 6'10", 240 lbs. Towns is known as a big who can shoot 3's now but at age 19 in college he only shot 25% from 3 on 0.2 attempts per game. It wasn't until his 2nd year in the NBA at age 21 that he got to be a 36% (NBA league average) shooter from 3 on 3 attempts per game. Sengun although a low % from now now, shows flashes of being able to hit them (even off the dribble and step backs) and with a crazy high FT% it's not a stretch to see him making a similar trajectory as a 3 point shooter over the next 2-3 years that Towns made..

It's not apples to apples. College is a much slower pace and those guys weren't getting many minutes. I haven't looked it up but I don't remember Embiid or Towns playing more than like 25 minutes a game and they are beholden to the system they are in. Longer shot clocks, weaker point guard play, packed paints. It's just different. If you watched Embiid in college though he was getting Hakeem comps. Just saying.

Not hard to find direct comparison points for NCAA->Turkey. Here's how scoring rates have changed for some prominent bigs (last year in NCAA to this year in Turkey, per 40 pace adjusted)

Kyle Wiltjer 24.8->22.9
Johnny O'Bryant 19.6->17.8
Kyle O'Quinn 20.2->19.7
Gabe Olaseni 17.6->19.5
Brock Motum 22.4->19.1
Johnathan Williams 18.4->16.9
Raymar Morgan 17.0->24.1
Amile Jefferson 14.8->19.1
Kenny Kadji 18.4->21.3
Grant Jerrett 11.5->17.9
Johnny Hamilton 18.0->17.4
DJ White 20.9->17.0
Josh Owens 17.3->12.2
Perry Jones 18.0->10.9
Ryan Luther 13.7->16.9
Chris Singleton 17.3->15.6
Darion Atkins 12.8->16.4

As you can see, some go up and some go down but most don't deviate too far from their NCAA scoring rate. The cases where scoring does increase dramatically (e.g. one-and-done Grant Jerrett) generally reflect actual improvement by the player, not easier scoring in Turkey.

18-year-old Sengun, with 26.6 points per 40 pace adjusted, outscored everyone on this list. He also had a higher assist rate than everyone on this list. I feel pretty confident that he would've put up similar numbers if he'd been an NCAA freshman...that's probably even a touch conservative.

You just posted a bunch of guys whom have long passed their time in the NCAA as freshman that were never good enough for the NBA and are having productive careers in Turkey?

Those guys couldn't justify playing time in the NBA regardless of what their stats were in college. So whether Sengun puts up those numbers in college is moot.

The question is how does he translate to the NBA where all of tbose guys you mentioned did not.

[Charm]

It's not apples to apples. College is a much slower pace and those guys weren't getting many minutes. I haven't looked it up but I don't remember Embiid or Towns playing more than like 25 minutes a game and they are beholden to the system they are in. Longer shot clocks, weaker point guard play, packed paints. It's just different. If you watched Embiid in college though he was getting Hakeem comps. Just saying.

Not hard to find direct comparison points for NCAA->Turkey. Here's how scoring rates have changed for some prominent bigs (last year in NCAA to this year in Turkey, per 40 pace adjusted)

Kyle Wiltjer 24.8->22.9
Johnny O'Bryant 19.6->17.8
Kyle O'Quinn 20.2->19.7
Gabe Olaseni 17.6->19.5
Brock Motum 22.4->19.1
Johnathan Williams 18.4->16.9
Raymar Morgan 17.0->24.1
Amile Jefferson 14.8->19.1
Kenny Kadji 18.4->21.3
Grant Jerrett 11.5->17.9
Johnny Hamilton 18.0->17.4
DJ White 20.9->17.0
Josh Owens 17.3->12.2
Perry Jones 18.0->10.9
Ryan Luther 13.7->16.9
Chris Singleton 17.3->15.6
Darion Atkins 12.8->16.4

As you can see, some go up and some go down but most don't deviate too far from their NCAA scoring rate. The cases where scoring does increase dramatically (e.g. one-and-done Grant Jerrett) generally reflect actual improvement by the player, not easier scoring in Turkey.

18-year-old Sengun, with 26.6 points per 40 pace adjusted, outscored everyone on this list. He also had a higher assist rate than everyone on this list. I feel pretty confident that he would've put up similar numbers if he'd been an NCAA freshman...that's probably even a touch conservative.

You just posted a bunch of guys whom have long passed their time in the NCAA as freshman that were never good enough for the NBA and are having productive careers in Turkey?

Those guys couldn't justify playing time in the NBA regardless of what their stats were in college. So whether Sengun puts up those numbers in college is moot.

The question is how does he translate to the NBA where all of tbose guys you mentioned did not.

What's the reasonable expectation for an 18-year-old prospect? I'm making the case that he played well enough last season to dominate the NCAA, which only a handful of 18-year-olds have ever done.

Did Sengun play well enough last year to succeed in the NBA? That depends on what counts as success. Given that Sengun outperformed several players who had NBA careers or serious NBA interest, it seems likely that he was good enough last year to at least be a quality NBA roleplayer. If he was a 24-year-old finished product, that wouldn't be too exciting. But needless to say, that puts him well ahead of the curve compared to other prospects at the same age, past and present. If he keeps developing, as virtually all players his age do, he's on a superstar trajectory.