2020-21 NBA Season Discussion

[NinjaSheppard]

Chris Paul is definitely getting too much credit from certain portions of people that watch/cover the NBA. The thing is that those people also crushed him in the past when he played amazing and his teams lost even though it wasn't his fault so it balances out.

Most people here had him in that 20-25 range and this won't change anything for them because RealGM doesn't overvalue Finals/Titles. The people that value rings, finals too much will now bump him into that range if he finishes the job so everything works out.

[cpower]

On CP3 though, pretty wild last night tied his playoff career high and looks like was 2nd in career game score in a playoff game, I haven't looked at all games but looking at highs in a single run looks like he only had 1 year with a higher high if that makes sense. At age 36.

He's 13th in playoff BPM. 10th in VORP (tied for 6th though). 5th in WS and tied for 5th/6th in WS/48.

He's posting his 3rd best career playoff assist:TO ratio (2nd if you exclude the 4 game series in 2016) at 5.55:1.

Think there's a balance between "CP3 is MVP" and giving everyone but him credit. The whole team is just a bunch of quality players.

this is not against CP3 himself but i hope there is a new stat to replace today's assist number. guys like Westbrook having 3 OBPM while shooting like 46%TS..there is a lot of broken stats in the box scores. In today's league everyone is so good at shooting, giving assist for someone making a jump shot does not make more sense anymore.

That's...what an assist is.

TS% and assists are not related. Steph would have a lot less assists if he didn't play with Klay. Jokic would have a lot less if he didn't play with Porter and Murray and Barton. The measure of an assist depends on players scoring too.

what i meant was an assist should actually make the player scoring the ball easier, if a pass making the player an open lane for a dunk or layup that should be an assist. If the player is just receiving the ball then make a three, it not like the pass it making the player scoring any easier. WB gets the assist by making some great plays and also by just throwing at players who is gonna shoot regardless. Ball dominate players get "stat" when their plays could actually hurt team offense.

[bondom34]

this is not against CP3 himself but i hope there is a new stat to replace today's assist number. guys like Westbrook having 3 OBPM while shooting like 46%TS..there is a lot of broken stats in the box scores. In today's league everyone is so good at shooting, giving assist for someone making a jump shot does not make more sense anymore.

That's...what an assist is.

TS% and assists are not related. Steph would have a lot less assists if he didn't play with Klay. Jokic would have a lot less if he didn't play with Porter and Murray and Barton. The measure of an assist depends on players scoring too.

what i meant was an assist should actually make the player scoring the ball easier, if a pass making the player an open lane for a dunk or layup that should be an assist. If the player is just receiving the ball then make a three, it not like the pass it making the player scoring any easier. WB gets the assist by making some great plays and also by just throwing at players who is gonna shoot regardless. Ball dominate players get "stat" when their plays could actually hurt team offense.

So you're saying passing to good shooters hurts team offense. That's a stance to have. The passer may well be driving and getting defensive attention, creating the more open look. The shooter still has to make the shot (and "potential assists" exist as well). Also, not entirely sure but pretty sure going back in time they've been handed out fairly similarly. Don't think assists are a perfect stat at all (frankly not a huge box score guy in general) but they're something to document historically as a fairly consistent measure.

As stated above in an edit, let's also remove rebounds for tall players, or steals from bad passers. I mean all the tall guy is really doing is grabbing a ball and all the defender is doing is gaining possession from a poor passer.

Sounds more like you don't care for a heliocentric offense, which is an opinion to have, but they've been pretty darn effective and looks like 2 such point guards leading the league in time the ball is in their hands may well be in the finals (depending on the Hawks).

Edited a few times but want to add:

If we really want to dig in, Bball-Index's playmaking talent scores:



End up not being a direct correlation with assists, but from here:

https://www.bball-index.com/glossary/

focus more on synergy data it seems.

[Doctor MJ]

Ya'll do anything to not give Chris Paul any credit lol.

Credit for what? He had a great game last night but was also quite terrible in 3 of the 4 games he did play.

Like you expect that to be just brushed aside because they won the series?

The entire team deserves credit. From the FO all the way to the bench. But that also includes their best player, Chris Paul. I think a couple of posters got really upset with the lazy narrative that Paul is the sole reason they are here that they've over-corrected and speak almost as if the Suns win despite Paul and not because of him.

Count me in on getting upset over the lazy narrative.

ftr, I do currently have Paul as the team's MVP this year. I don't consider it a blowout, but I have him top the Suns list.

I think the thing I want to convey here is that it's not just that people seemed to talk like he was making a bunch of dogs understand quantum mechanics, it's also the idea that Paul is taking over all the alpha duties on all fronts.

I think Paul always minimizes team error and has impact that way.
I think Paul has served as a captain tacking against the wind when the younger guys flagged.
I think Paul's impact on Ayton is a really big deal.

I also think having an old man come in and slow down the offense of a young team is not the way to get them to their potential, I also think in the RS Paul's presence was literally making Booker a less effective scorer than he was with Rubio.

All of these things can be true at the same time.

[Joey Wheeler]

How does everyone see Ayton now compared to every other big? Im only taking Jokic and Embiid over him and Jokics defense is a real problem in the playoffs. They had to rally from b2b 3-1 deficits last year and that was with Jamal Murray playing like Steph Curry in the playoffs.

Embiid is always hurt and his defense and onball creation has issues himself. Ayton might be the best playoff defender even over Draymond IMO. How he was able to stay on the floor and dominate the Clips small ball VS how helpless and borderline useless Rudy Gobet was eye opening

you could make a REAL case Ayton has been Suns best player in their western conference run

I'll only take AD and maybe Embiid over him. Ayton is sort of a poor man's AD, he can anchor your defense and allows you to go small while effectively remaining big. His touch around the basket is also incredible. He's the perfect for the current meta game. Now of course AD is the perfect version of this archetype and just genuinely one of the best players of all-time, but if I can't have him give me Ayton...

Jokic is a superior individual player in a vacuum, but he's a big who can't anchor your defense. Even if he was the greatest offensive player of all-time, it'd still be extremely limiting from a team-building standpoint as you nee to run two bigs to be strong defensively.

You can not only make a real case, but there's no doubt in my mind Ayton is the most valuable Suns player in the playoffs, like AD was last year for the Lakers for that matter. The current NBA playoff metagame is all about going small while maintaining a size advantage over your opponent. That's why the Suns ran through the West after AD, the only player in the Conference who could stop them from doing that, went down. Teams like the Clippers are forced to go with Batum when they want to go small, Jazz can't do it without tanking their defense... with Ayton's mobility the Suns are pretty much effectively playing small while having their elite defensive anchor on the court.

[parsnips33]

this is not against CP3 himself but i hope there is a new stat to replace today's assist number. guys like Westbrook having 3 OBPM while shooting like 46%TS..there is a lot of broken stats in the box scores. In today's league everyone is so good at shooting, giving assist for someone making a jump shot does not make more sense anymore.

That's...what an assist is.

TS% and assists are not related. Steph would have a lot less assists if he didn't play with Klay. Jokic would have a lot less if he didn't play with Porter and Murray and Barton. The measure of an assist depends on players scoring too.

what i meant was an assist should actually make the player scoring the ball easier, if a pass making the player an open lane for a dunk or layup that should be an assist. If the player is just receiving the ball then make a three, it not like the pass it making the player scoring any easier. WB gets the assist by making some great plays and also by just throwing at players who is gonna shoot regardless. Ball dominate players get "stat" when their plays could actually hurt team offense.

There is still some physical skill in passing, and especially with shooters it can be a matter of seconds turning an open shot to a contested one. Being able to pass accurately into a guys shooting pocket, even if it's just a routine catch-and-shoot look, counts for something

[bondom34]

Actually on that point, want to circle it back somewhat to a term used but "gravity" is something assigned to a guy like Steph where it fits due to his 3 point shooting, but gravity can also go toward any player at any location. A drive and kick creates gravity in terms of a guy going to the basket and kicking out to a 3 point shooter. A drive to a midrange pullup creates gravity in players collapsing, etc.

Passing out of those looks is inherently valuable.

[Doctor MJ]

That's...what an assist is.

TS% and assists are not related. Steph would have a lot less assists if he didn't play with Klay. Jokic would have a lot less if he didn't play with Porter and Murray and Barton. The measure of an assist depends on players scoring too.

what i meant was an assist should actually make the player scoring the ball easier, if a pass making the player an open lane for a dunk or layup that should be an assist. If the player is just receiving the ball then make a three, it not like the pass it making the player scoring any easier. WB gets the assist by making some great plays and also by just throwing at players who is gonna shoot regardless. Ball dominate players get "stat" when their plays could actually hurt team offense.

There is still some physical skill in passing, and especially with shooters it can be a matter of seconds turning an open shot to a contested one. Being able to pass accurately into a guys shooting pocket, even if it's just a routine catch-and-shoot look, counts for something

I tell you what:

When I see a guy hurl the ball in the general direction of the open shooter but miss by 4 feet requiring the other guy to say if from going out of boards, I appreciate the skill of those passers who get the ball right where the shooter needs it even on "easy passes".

You could say that my issue isn't the Chris Paul Assist, but the Paul George Assist - where the guy who saves the turnover still manages to hit the 3 - where the pass itself was worse than replacement level expectations, yet the passer still receives box score validation.

[MartinToVaught]

I think the thing I want to convey here is that it's not just that people seemed to talk like he was making a bunch of dogs understand quantum mechanics, it's also the idea that Paul is taking over all the alpha duties on all fronts.

Well said. Booker and Ayton are getting downplayed way too much just like Blake always used to be downplayed in the Lob City era.

[Doctor MJ]

Actually on that point, want to circle it back somewhat to a term used but "gravity" is something assigned to a guy like Steph where it fits due to his 3 point shooting, but gravity can also go toward any player at any location. A drive and kick creates gravity in terms of a guy going to the basket and kicking out to a 3 point shooter. A drive to a midrange pullup creates gravity in players collapsing, etc.

Passing out of those looks is inherently valuable.

Agree, and a point further:

The gravity metaphor has a scoring bias. Scoring causes attractive "force" on opponents, where passing causes repulsion. Both are valuable, and the most valuable offensive players have both going on at the same time - which doesn't mean they cancel each other out in impact, though does mean that player tracking is unlikely to ever be able to truly measure it.

[parsnips33]

what i meant was an assist should actually make the player scoring the ball easier, if a pass making the player an open lane for a dunk or layup that should be an assist. If the player is just receiving the ball then make a three, it not like the pass it making the player scoring any easier. WB gets the assist by making some great plays and also by just throwing at players who is gonna shoot regardless. Ball dominate players get "stat" when their plays could actually hurt team offense.

There is still some physical skill in passing, and especially with shooters it can be a matter of seconds turning an open shot to a contested one. Being able to pass accurately into a guys shooting pocket, even if it's just a routine catch-and-shoot look, counts for something

I tell you what:

When I see a guy hurl the ball in the general direction of the open shooter but miss by 4 feet requiring the other guy to say if from going out of boards, I appreciate the skill of those passers who get the ball right where the shooter needs it even on "easy passes".

You could say that my issue isn't the Chris Paul Assist, but the Paul George Assist - where the guy who saves the turnover still manages to hit the 3 - where the pass itself was worse than replacement level expectations, yet the passer still receives box score validation.

Definitely, and it's annoying that statistically the two looks exactly alike - 1 assist.

And that's why the best way to understand the game is still watching it as much as that may annoy some of the more stats oriented crowd.

[MartinToVaught]

Now his Denver series, that was impressive.

He had a very good series against Denver, but I'd hesitate to call it "impressive." Denver was starting Campazzo and Austin Rivers that series because they were so depleted.

[bondom34]

Actually on that point, want to circle it back somewhat to a term used but "gravity" is something assigned to a guy like Steph where it fits due to his 3 point shooting, but gravity can also go toward any player at any location. A drive and kick creates gravity in terms of a guy going to the basket and kicking out to a 3 point shooter. A drive to a midrange pullup creates gravity in players collapsing, etc.

Passing out of those looks is inherently valuable.

Agree, and a point further:

The gravity metaphor has a scoring bias. Scoring causes attractive "force" on opponents, where passing causes repulsion. Both are valuable, and the most valuable offensive players have both going on at the same time - which doesn't mean they cancel each other out in impact, though does mean that player tracking is unlikely to ever be able to truly measure it.

States it pretty well. It's some unmeasurable mixture that requires a certain volume of scoring, but isn't measured by the offensive player but the defense's reaction. Or for anyone who's ever touched a court, the idea in your own mind of "would I really care if this guy was left unguarded relative to other options".

As for the idea of assists themselves, they're certainly not perfect, and the other one that I've seen argued, though I don't think its common is a pass to a player who ends up taking multiple dribbles and creates the look for himself anyway. Don't think that's what was being meant originally though, and in general the argument against a ball dominant passer isn't that one.

[Doctor MJ]

There is still some physical skill in passing, and especially with shooters it can be a matter of seconds turning an open shot to a contested one. Being able to pass accurately into a guys shooting pocket, even if it's just a routine catch-and-shoot look, counts for something

I tell you what:

When I see a guy hurl the ball in the general direction of the open shooter but miss by 4 feet requiring the other guy to say if from going out of boards, I appreciate the skill of those passers who get the ball right where the shooter needs it even on "easy passes".

You could say that my issue isn't the Chris Paul Assist, but the Paul George Assist - where the guy who saves the turnover still manages to hit the 3 - where the pass itself was worse than replacement level expectations, yet the passer still receives box score validation.

Definitely, and it's annoying that statistically the two looks exactly alike - 1 assist.

And that's why the best way to understand the game is still watching it as much as that may annoy some of the more stats oriented crowd.

I don't know if that actually is in dispute by many. Tons of information is loss when the actual play of the game is mapped down to a box score. Anyone who thinks the entirety of the game exists in the box score is a fool - and while granted, some highly educated fools have existed in this space (Dave Berri always comes to mind), they don't get taken all that seriously by the analytics community in my experience.

Here's what annoys me when people say "watch the game":

1. I'm trying, but I can't see the game as well as the best can.

2. As frustrated as I am with my limitations compared to those who can really see what's happening in real time on a team level, I find that most "watch the game" folks see much less than I do. It's something of a hallmark of someone who is afraid to admit they have gaps in their basketball knowledge, often because of how much of an identity they've built up in their own head of things they want to think they know that aren't so.

3. It's not an either/or thing. People who can see the game better than I can have the potential for analytics to help them more than it helps me, not less. Hence, even in the proverbial example of the NBA player who can certainly see things I cannot, he's only holding himself back if he refuses to learn about using data.

[cpower]

Actually on that point, want to circle it back somewhat to a term used but "gravity" is something assigned to a guy like Steph where it fits due to his 3 point shooting, but gravity can also go toward any player at any location. A drive and kick creates gravity in terms of a guy going to the basket and kicking out to a 3 point shooter. A drive to a midrange pullup creates gravity in players collapsing, etc.

Passing out of those looks is inherently valuable.

A drive and kick creates gravity but not necessarily getting captured in the box score. player A drive and kick to player B who flips to players C who makes a open shot, in this case player B gets more credit than player A.

[bondom34]

Actually on that point, want to circle it back somewhat to a term used but "gravity" is something assigned to a guy like Steph where it fits due to his 3 point shooting, but gravity can also go toward any player at any location. A drive and kick creates gravity in terms of a guy going to the basket and kicking out to a 3 point shooter. A drive to a midrange pullup creates gravity in players collapsing, etc.

Passing out of those looks is inherently valuable.

A drive and kick creates gravity but not necessarily getting captured in the box score. player A drive and kick to player B who flips to players C who makes a open shot, in this case player B gets more credit than player A.

I thought the argument was against ball dominance (and player B in this case would be making the right read).

In this instance it's not ball dominance and player B still has to make the right pass.

[cpower]

Actually on that point, want to circle it back somewhat to a term used but "gravity" is something assigned to a guy like Steph where it fits due to his 3 point shooting, but gravity can also go toward any player at any location. A drive and kick creates gravity in terms of a guy going to the basket and kicking out to a 3 point shooter. A drive to a midrange pullup creates gravity in players collapsing, etc.

Passing out of those looks is inherently valuable.

A drive and kick creates gravity but not necessarily getting captured in the box score. player A drive and kick to player B who flips to players C who makes a open shot, in this case player B gets more credit than player A.

I thought the argument was against ball dominance (and player B in this case would be making the right read).

In this instance it's not ball dominance and player B still has to make the right pass.

agreed but a right pass is not as difficult as creating gravity. if this is happening a lot i can see box scores fail to capture every single drive and kicks but only capture every pass before the shot. I expect player B to be evenly distributed so its not as annoying otherwise people would just look at the assists number to see who is the best "passer" in the team.

[bondom34]

A drive and kick creates gravity but not necessarily getting captured in the box score. player A drive and kick to player B who flips to players C who makes a open shot, in this case player B gets more credit than player A.

I thought the argument was against ball dominance (and player B in this case would be making the right read).

In this instance it's not ball dominance and player B still has to make the right pass.

agreed but a right pass is not as difficult as creating gravity. if this is happening a lot i can see box scores fail to capture every single drive and kicks but only capture every pass before the shot. I expect player B to be evenly distributed so its not as annoying otherwise people would just look at the assists number to see who is the best "passer" in the team.

I don't think anyone credible would use assists as the sole measure of passing. They are an indicator. And the original point was:

In today's league everyone is so good at shooting, giving assist for someone making a jump shot does not make more sense anymore.

This isn't really a sensible point. Players may be better shooters, that's not relevant to passing.

Then:

what i meant was an assist should actually make the player scoring the ball easier,

Well in this case player B got player C a better look than he'd have had. Which does make it easier.

Then:

WB gets the assist by making some great plays and also by just throwing at players who is gonna shoot regardless. Ball dominate players get "stat" when their plays could actually hurt team offense.

This just seems agenda driven honestly. It starts with ball dominance and the idea on its face isn't really sensible (throwing the ball at players who will shoot regardless?), but we've given examples where this is directly false and the point has shifted to now an instance where swinging the ball (which sounds like team offense) also doesn't count.

If a player is passing to a good shooter, that seems like it helps.

[GYK]

No they aren’t built to steamroll. They should be in multiple Game 6’s and 7’s in a playoff run to a ring. Dominant teams like the Warriors skew perception of good teams. Being unbeatable isn’t the norm. Struggling is normal. Game 6 and 7 is normal. Bucks a championship caliber team and they should be in this situation.

[BobbyPortisFan]

[quote="HeartBreakKid"]Not sure why but BobbyP is hardcore championing for Giannis e/quote]
Why does this matter? Just say what you think...

Obviously how strong the supporitng cast is relevant consideting how much of their success can be attributed to giannis...