Thoughts in General, Rumors, etc 3.0

[loserX]

It feels like the top 3 is...

Pistons - Cunningham
Rockets - Green
Cavaliers - Mobley

What does Toronto do at 4? Trade the pick for a vet? Draft Suggs, Barnes, Kuminga, Bouknight? Trade Down?

Unless they really do have some kind of line on Ben Simmons, my guess is they just draft Suggs and call it a (good) day. Their need for Barnes is a lot less with OG already on the team, and if they do indeed re-up Gary Trent then they won't value Bouknight as much.

But it looks increasingly like Lowry is gone, so Suggs may be BPA *and* best fit for Toronto, a happy coincidence.

[Devilanche]

The only solid Grizz rumor was a 10+Bledsoe for 17 deal and I reckon that was fairly legit seeing as it happened ha. I don't buy really any of the speculation on which prospect we are targeting seeing as we have been linked to just about anyone who could logically go in the 6-10 range.

I half expect two trades on draft night for Memphis. One to move up from 10 (feels like 7 or 8 is the most likely) and one to move up from #40 (Tyus or Allen or future 2nd as incentive?)

7 is more likely though cause you guys got more proven rookie scale guys that can contribute immediately. So long as GSW is not sold that anyone left have all star potential .

No reason for Orlando move down from 8th

[Devilanche]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Whalers loves this guy but none of the teams who have employed him seem to feel the same. Not sure what to think.

He’s either coming back on less than the QO, which I don’t think is the case, or they are moving on. He wasn’t horrible. OKC has zero centers. I’m definitely reading too much into this but I think OKC is trying to retain max flexibility going into draft night. Now someone tell me why the QO doesn’t matter one way or another for that.

Sounds like we are moving on. Not offer the QO works for us so we won’t get surprised . It works for him as now other teams knows OKC won’t and can’t match so they can offer their below MLE offer to him so it doesn’t lock their cap or exceptions or bae or whatever .

Of course if they need do S&T for some future future 2nd Presti is always available for a quick call .

[Kupchak9]

Every year we hear the same empty platitudes, "this draft is DEEP", or "I wouldn't trade pick x for All-Star" or "this is a x man draft" or "x pick is an elite prospect at this level" and etc. Really it's just a bunch of louder fanbases propagating their hopes in a way that skew public opinion in their favor. One of the more recent threads has opened my eyes to just how significant representation is to manufacturing theoretical belief: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2105957

In the above thread we have posters suggesting these players are equivalent to or close to the value of the #4 pick:

Brandon Ingram - a 24 year old All-Star SF, playing the hardest position to fill in the league and locked into a max contract.
Bradley Beal - a 28 year old All-Star SG, whom is one of the best scorers in the league and with 2 years left on his contract.
Domatas Sabonis - a 25 year old All-Star C, a 20/12/6/1 threat who can stretch the floor. A big built for this era.
Jamaal Murray - 24 year old, not an All-star PG, but a 20/4/5 2nd option on one of the best teams in the West.
SGA - 22 year old, not an All-star SG, just put up 23/4/6 on 50 FG% and 42 3P% just in his 3rd season. Still in his rookie contract.

Personally, I wouldn't trade any of these guys for a pick lower than 2. Why? Because the draft is always a crapshoot. There seems to be a misconception that you'll have a guaranteed star-caliber player as long as they're picked within an X range (top 3, top 5, top 7 etc).

In reality, each draft generates relatively the same number of star-caliber players every year and their ascension to that next level is not dependent on where they were picked in the draft. Just take a look at the last 10 drafts before 2020.

2010: Wall (1st), Cousins (5th), Hayward (9th), PG13 (10th)
2011: Irving (1st), Kemba (9th), Klay (11th), Kawhi (15th), Vucevic (16th)
2012: AD (1st), Beal (3rd), Lillard (6th), Draymond (35th), Middleton (39th)
2013: Oladipo (2nd), McCollum (10th), Giannis (15th), Gobert (27th)
2014: Embiid (3rd), Randle (7th), Lavine (13th), Jokic (41st)
2015: KAT (1st), D'Angelo (2nd), Porzingis (4th), Booker (13th)
2016: Simmons (1st), Ingram (2nd), Brown (3rd), Murray (7th), Sabonis (11th), Siakim (27th)
2017: Tatum (3rd), Fox (5th), Mitchell (13th), Abedayo (14th),
2018: Ayton (1st), Luka (3rd), Trae (5th), SGA (11th), MPJ (17th)
2019: Zion (1st), Morant (2nd), Herro (13th), KPJ (14th)

For the majority of these guys, there's players within 1 or 2 selections of them that did not materialize into an All-star caliber player. Which means even in the lottery, you're taking closer to a 33% chance of drafting a star player with your draft pick, regardless of where they're selected. Even with the additional appeal of having a cost-controlled rookie scale contract, I can't fathom how there's a general consensus that an early draft pick is worth as much as a guaranteed All-star in their early-mid 20s on a locked-down contract. It really only seems like it's during draft time, where there's a sudden urge to hype up draft picks to an unrealistic value. Then it all comes crashing down post-draft.

TLDR: A bird in the hand is better than 1 in the bush.

[NYG]

Yeah, mostly the draft is a crapshoot any year. You do get some 1996 or 2003 drafts sometimes though.

[LaSheed]

Might as well put it in there right now:

2021: Cade Cunningham (1st)

[tiderulz]

people may not be saying this draft has 10 more all-stars than previous drafts, but a deep draft can give you more serviceable players and starters/contributors vs busts.

[LofJ]

The draft is about hope and possibility, that's why it's so popular. But I agree it is annoying to see some fans take it too far and annoint players as all-stars before they've even stepped foot on an NBA court.

It's fine and good to hope for high level success for the players your team drafted, but you're setting yourself up for disappointment if you expect it.

All that said top 5 picks have a higher hit rate than the rest of the field. It isn't unreasonable to have higher expectations for players picked that high in the draft. But even then you should still manage expectations.

[zimpy27]

That list of players per year misses on many other good role playing assets in those drafts. There's also a lot of value in the picks because they are free assets that's one teams would never get in free agency.

Look at the list of names per year and think about how many of those players switched teams in free agency. Not many. Most left in trade for other assets or stayed with their teams for years.

[VCfor3]

The only solid Grizz rumor was a 10+Bledsoe for 17 deal and I reckon that was fairly legit seeing as it happened ha. I don't buy really any of the speculation on which prospect we are targeting seeing as we have been linked to just about anyone who could logically go in the 6-10 range.

I half expect two trades on draft night for Memphis. One to move up from 10 (feels like 7 or 8 is the most likely) and one to move up from #40 (Tyus or Allen or future 2nd as incentive?)

7 is more likely though cause you guys got more proven rookie scale guys that can contribute immediately. So long as GSW is not sold that anyone left have all star potential .

No reason for Orlando move down from 8th

There is a rumor Orlando likes Ziaire. If that is their guy then moving back two spots to pick up an extra 1st (LAL or UTA) while still getting him would make some sense. Just depends on who they are targeting. If they feel someone at 8 that they want won't be available at 10 then yeah they don't worry about moving down and take their guy.

[HartfordWhalers]

Talk of Terrence Davis wanting ~10m a year makes me think the Kings really do need move Buddy (or just say no).

Fox/Haliburton/Wright/Davis is more than enough money in guards if they go that way.

[chrbal]

Talk of Terrence Davis wanting ~10m a year makes me think the Kings really do need move Buddy (or just say no).

Fox/Haliburton/Wright/Davis is more than enough money in guards if they go that way.

Kings really do just need to trade buddy. They have a good amount of talent of wings/guards, but they have like no frontcourt depth whatsoever. And that’s with bagley on the roster and Holmes resigning.

[Texas Chuck]

Talk of Terrence Davis wanting ~10m a year makes me think the Kings really do need move Buddy (or just say no).

Fox/Haliburton/Wright/Davis is more than enough money in guards if they go that way.

They need to trade Buddy. They also need not to pay Davis $10M.

[LofJ]

The Kings 100% have to make moves to clear cap space. Watch the Thunder to help make that happen - probably taking on Bagley for the 9th pick with 16 and 18 going to the Kings. If Hield is going out it will probably be a separate trade.

[BlazersBroncos]

The Kings 100% have to make moves to clear cap space. Watch the Thunder to help make that happen - probably taking on Bagley for the 9th pick with 16 and 18 going to the Kings. If Hield is going out it will probably be a separate trade.

Oklahoma City Trades
#6
#16
#18
2023 DEN FRP
Darius Bazely F

Oklahoma City Receives
#3
Kevin Love C
Marvin Bagley FC

Sacramento Trades
#9
Marvin Bagley

Sacramento Receives
#16
#18

Cleveland Trades
#3
Kevin Love C

Cleveland Receives
#6
#9
2023 DEN FRP
Darius Bazely F

[Texas Chuck]

Townsend and Sefko both saying they expect something of significance from Dallas in the next 2 days even if just salary clearing. Note that nothing in the wording suggests firm sourcing but more speculation based on how aggressive they expect Dallas to be this off-season.

[Troubadour]

What are the Pistons doing with Sekou? Feels like he's been lost in the shuffle a little bit.

[becorz]

Talk of Terrence Davis wanting ~10m a year makes me think the Kings really do need move Buddy (or just say no).

Fox/Haliburton/Wright/Davis is more than enough money in guards if they go that way.

They need to trade Buddy. They also need not to pay Davis $10M.

This is correct. And I don't think that McNair is gonna break the bank to keep Davis, given his goal of flexibility. I feel like they will just let his restricted free agency happen and go from there.

[Texas Chuck]

Nets news items:

Brown getting QO as expected
MDA leaving while still wanting to be a head coach again at some point

[MotownMadness]

What are the Pistons doing with Sekou? Feels like he's been lost in the shuffle a little bit.

His trade value is so low he's probably just worth keeping and hoping he turns it around at this point.