Post#1427 » by RapsFanInOhio » Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:02 pm
I agree about the Lowry decision. That pretty much looms over the rest of the off-season. You gotta think that there’s a good chance we still want to re-sign him but I also think we’re prepared for all outcomes.
If he re-signs:
FVV / Flynn / Banton
Lowry / GTJ / Bembry / Johnson
OG / Barnes / Champagnie
Siakam / Boucher / Yuta / Wright
MLE / Birch with BAE / Gillespie
That’s about what you’re gonna see. That MLE spot is likely filled with a Olynyk or a Noel if Holmes won’t take a full MLE deal, which is likely. Hood, Baynes, Watson, Johnson are all likely not retained, though I think Bembry would stay on as cheap wing depth. You could see Birch get a slightly bigger deal in this scenario with the MLE and then a vet min guy behind him if the numbers push them close to the tax.
If Lowry goes in a S&T:
FVV / Flynn / Banton
GTJ / Bembry / Johnson
OG / Barnes / Champagnie
Siakam / Boucher / Yuta / Wright
Allen for Lowry TPE / Birch with Partial MLE / Gillespie
Or:
FVV / Flynn / Banton
Ball / GTJ / Johnson
OG / Barnes / Champagnie
Siakam / Boucher / Yuta / Wright
MLE / Birch / Gillespie
Lots of different S&T options out there. Even if it’s a TPE, that could come into play just due to the size of it. A S&T would allow us to keep the MLE, which I do see them using this year as there are too many roster holes to fill. I do think if we use the TPE for a bigger contract guy, we probably bring back Bembry as a cheap glue guy / for tax avoidance purposes. There are a lot of other fun S&T routes, but I think Lowry’s list is down to Miami, NO, Us, and Philly in that order. Miami can clear space but we probably ask for a TPE in that scenario - same for NO. I don’t think we want to deal with Philly nor do I think Kyle is dead set on going there, so I think they’re less likely. There’s an outside chance at LAC still getting involved even with uncertainty around Kawhi’s situation - that’s a pretty interesting S&T scenario too, if they’re an option. I think Dallas has no chance.
Lowry Signs Elsewhere, No S&T:
FVV / Flynn / Banton
GTJ / Bembry / Johnson
OG / Barnes / Watson / Champagnie
Siakam / Boucher / Yuta / Wright
Holmes / Birch with room exception / Gillespie
I think Holmes is our primary target in this scenario.
Random thoughts:
- Holmes can’t be S&T and make what he is worth on the market because of the weird Kings situation. Charlotte certainly helped us with this because it would seem with their moves (Plumlee, Jones) that they’re probably out on Holmes.
- I think we probably prioritize a guy like Allen over Holmes for flexibility reasons, but Cleveland has to play ball there. I think we offer him something north of $20 million a year, but I don’t know that Cleveland has any interest in a S&T. We certainly won’t make an offer sheet because that would involve lots of maneuvering first to make happen - this is a key detail, I think. If Allen comes here, it’s because Cleveland doesn’t want to match or because we throw in an asset to make it work. But I think it’s important to note that we don’t necessarily need to clear the cap holds to do this. It’s probably a negotiation with Cleveland first if Allen wants to come here.
- I don’t think a Lowry for Simmons deal is totally off the table. We clearly have a type, and if Lowry wants to go there I could see us asking for a Simmons instead of a Curry / Hill / filler package. It’s a weird fit for sure, but if we’re going to add all the 6’9” and over non-shooters, I could see us doing this to commit all the way. At the very least we would be the best defensive team in the league. Running out a lineup of FVV / OG / Barnes / Siakam / Simmons is freaking lethal, even if we can’t score.
- With the Holmes thing, it sucks that a S&T probably can’t be worked there. If he would take an MLE, that’s the steal of the off-season.
- I think we’re super high on GTJ and I think ultimately he starts at SG this year. They probably had a ton of offers for Powell but they chose him for a reason and I don’t think it was for him to sign elsewhere. For this reason, even though we’re interested, I don’t see us signing a guy like Dimwiddie - that money is going to the center spot. Ball might be interesting if Lowry wants to go to NO but I’m not totally buying that yet. It feels to me like we’re a little thin at SG with just GTJ and Bembry but I don’t think we see it that way and Johnson may end up giving more than we anticipate.
- I don’t think a Siakam deal is likely right now but I could absolutely see one at the deadline if we’re struggling again and if Kuminga looks decent. At the deadline is probably the right call anyway.
Props to Turbo_Zone for the sig
