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Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday

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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#61 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Aug 2, 2021 10:20 am

doclinkin wrote:I'm not sure why we are dismissing Holiday as a starting PG

As I have said in the Rui thread and the draft thread, in young players you look for a few good games where they show flashes, then you hope they learn from them and begin to string a few of them together. Can they do the thing, and can they do it consistently. Holiday has a few of these games under his belt:




These are not fluke games. These are within his skillset. A good coach will see what a player does well and tweak things to feature them. Holiday, Beal, Kispert, Bertans, Mathews, all shoot well coming off screens and in motion. Beal and Holiday both can penetrate coming off screens, Beal to finish and collect the foul, Holiday to kick to the open man. Last season we had players standing around doing nothing but wait for Russ to do something. That's not really going to accelerate their growth as players. But Wes apparently gameplanned the Gilbert Arenas offense under Eddie F Jordan. Any of these players would have worked well in that offense. Especially with Bertans and Kispert in the Antawn Jamison/Caron Butler roles. Beal as Arenas.

With success comes confidence as players get hot and allow open shots for the next guy. Players need to see they can do the thing then learn what it takes to do it consistently. But can Holiday do it?




This does not look like a player who is overmatched and lacking fundamental skills to succeed.

You got to figure coach Unseld had some say in whether to trade for Holiday vs picking a rookie. Since he had the responsibility for team defensive prep against teams, he knew the strengths of the player. I fully expect he not only gave the okay, but advocated for the team to pick him up. A coach needs a PG as an amplifier for his voice. Holiday comes from a family that knows the game inside out. I expect he will grow under the direct encouragement of a guy like Wes. And we will see more of the above, more often. Nate Bjorkgren was overmatched, apparently depressed, had lost control of the team. I expect that is not the best environment for growing a young player who had shown flashes up to that point.

Yeah he needs to get a bit stronger, and learn some of Brad's tricks for driving into contact to pick up the foul. But, I think there is a chance anyway that he can play as a frontline point, depending on the team and scheme and coaching he is working with.


My college chemistry professor used to love to say: “It should be intuitively obvious to the most casual of observers …”

Doc, I see it. Who can bring to fruition the vision new coaching best?
Bye bye Beal.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#62 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Aug 2, 2021 10:26 am

If the Wizards hold their powder and maintain with Aron Holiday they’ll be happy.

Maybe I think get Dennis Smith in the very minimum because like Holiday he can generate triple doubles and plays with youthful bounce. AH and DS both play well of Bradley.

Toronto used youthful and unproven Fred Van Vleet with short Kyle Lowry—to a championship run—years after Wall/Beal with Pierce et al swept the Raptors.

Defense and ball movement beats isolate ball
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#63 » by nate33 » Mon Aug 2, 2021 1:10 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:If the Wizards hold their powder and maintain with Aron Holiday they’ll be happy.

Maybe I think get Dennis Smith in the very minimum because like Holiday he can generate triple doubles and plays with youthful bounce. AH and DS both play well of Bradley.

Toronto used youthful and unproven Fred Van Vleet with short Kyle Lowry—to a championship run—years after Wall/Beal with Pierce et al swept the Raptors.

Defense and ball movement beats isolate ball

I think it's plausible that any half-decent PG would be an upgrade over Westbrook, as long as that PG can shoot and defend. Holiday can shoot and defend. Ultimately, the end result will be that shots taken inefficiently by Westbrook will get taken by other players in a more efficient manner. Westbrook was excellent at feeding the bigs at the rim, but he was also turnover prone and pretty bad at kicking out to the shooters for open looks from 3. I think the difference in passing pre and post Westbrook will be a wash.

The only question to me is whether or not Westbrook's rebounding was a mirage or not. Was he merely stealing rebounds from his teammates, or will his absence result in us losing the battle of the boards every night?
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#64 » by dckingsfan » Mon Aug 2, 2021 1:49 pm

Spoiler:
doclinkin wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:I can't see why, honestly.

In 3 years, Holiday hasn't had a season as good as Ish had for us last year -- & nowhere near as good as Neto' last season.

I mean... people have already posted that he had a bad year because he wasn't healthy, and he wasn't used as a PG last season. And Ish was horrible for most of last season. He can't shoot 3's - which makes it so hard to play him - and he's worse than the percentages, because teams dare him to shoot. Ish is a marginal NBA player. Between you and Doc, there's a very wide gap where the truth resides. Aaron's 24 and likely to get a little better - but a quick look at his stats for 3 seasons show it'd take an unusually dramatic improvement for him to be a legit starter. If he had Jrue's size, he could be outstanding, but he doesn't, and as the old saying goes, he ain't Jrue by a longshot.


Yet if you compare their age 22, 23, and 24 years he is better than Ish by a significant amount (except in assists) and has the edge over Neto. This despite poor coaching last year, and sharing ballhandling duties. Ish has been a sometime starter in his career. Raul started as a rookie. They are comparable on offense and advanced stats, but Aaron has been a better defender in that he has the length to guard up in size a bit, where the other two are more likely to be overmatched. Though Neto is game. Really all are scrappy. I like all three. The ceiling for Holiday seems a bit higher is all. So yeah, I agree with Ruz.

The point of my post is not that he is ready now as a fully developed product, or future all-star, but that with coaching and scheme he has a chance to show himself as a competent starter. I'm saying there is upside to Holiday. He hits his outside shot, defends bigger than his height, and doesn't turn the ball over. His shortcomings: he does not finish on the interior, could hit more assists. Both of those can improve with scheme, a role model in Beal, and good shooters all around him. But yes he is not a finished product and is not yet better than 2 players that have 4 and 8 more years of experience over him.

Still, I get the sense he has a chance to be.

"So yeah, I agree with Ruz" (he is a backup) and "he has a chance to show himself as a competent starter" :D !?!

;ab_channel=SportsMan

But I guess I have to be with you... because that is the way we are going to probably roll.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#65 » by Ruzious » Mon Aug 2, 2021 1:57 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:If the Wizards hold their powder and maintain with Aron Holiday they’ll be happy.

Maybe I think get Dennis Smith in the very minimum because like Holiday he can generate triple doubles and plays with youthful bounce. AH and DS both play well of Bradley.

Toronto used youthful and unproven Fred Van Vleet with short Kyle Lowry—to a championship run—years after Wall/Beal with Pierce et al swept the Raptors.
m
Defense and ball movement beats isolate ball

Except for teams with great iso players - like Brooklyn and - to a lesser extent - Portland, Dallas, LAC, and LAL.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#66 » by doclinkin » Mon Aug 2, 2021 2:04 pm

dckingsfan wrote:"So yeah, I agree with Ruz" (he is a backup) and "he has a chance to show himself as a competent starter" :D !?!

But I guess I have to be with you... because that is the way we are going to probably roll.



Agree with this:

payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:...Overall, I'd rate Aaron a little above both Neto and Ish.

I can't see why, honestly.


That he rates Aaron above Neto and Ish. Which to me grades out as eventual competent starter.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#67 » by dckingsfan » Mon Aug 2, 2021 2:23 pm

doclinkin wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:"So yeah, I agree with Ruz" (he is a backup) and "he has a chance to show himself as a competent starter" :D !?!

But I guess I have to be with you... because that is the way we are going to probably roll.

Agree with this:

payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:...Overall, I'd rate Aaron a little above both Neto and Ish.

I can't see why, honestly.


That he rates Aaron above Neto and Ish. Which to me grades out as eventual competent starter.

Or another way to say it, "if Neto was just a we bit better he would be an eventual competent starter"... you might have lost me there :D.

Or as Ruz put it - they all grade out as backups.

But I need to let this one go - I am hoping for an amazing breakout. Full Stop. And I hope that you get to haunt me with this post :D
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#68 » by doclinkin » Mon Aug 2, 2021 2:28 pm

Right. Ish was a fringe starter on 2 teams. Holiday might be better than a fringe starter. :clown:
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#69 » by daSwami » Mon Aug 2, 2021 2:51 pm

long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:Continues a long Boulez tradition of getting the lesser brother.

Harvey Grant
Brent Price
Aaron Holiday


Add Kieff Morris and Robin Lopez to that list.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#70 » by DCZards » Mon Aug 2, 2021 2:58 pm

nate33 wrote:I think it's plausible that any half-decent PG would be an upgrade over Westbrook, as long as that PG can shoot and defend. Holiday can shoot and defend. Ultimately, the end result will be that shots taken inefficiently by Westbrook will get taken by other players in a more efficient manner. Westbrook was excellent at feeding the bigs at the rim, but he was also turnover prone and pretty bad at kicking out to the shooters for open looks from 3. I think the difference in passing pre and post Westbrook will be a wash.

The only question to me is whether or not Westbrook's rebounding was a mirage or not. Was he merely stealing rebounds from his teammates, or will his absence result in us losing the battle of the boards every night?

Yes, Westbrook’s inefficient play and turnovers hurt, but don’t underestimate the impact his instincts and otherworldly effort had on helping the Zards win games.

A block shot at the end of one game…a rebound off a teammate’s missed FT in the last seconds of another game, etc.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#71 » by nate33 » Mon Aug 2, 2021 3:01 pm

DCZards wrote:
nate33 wrote:I think it's plausible that any half-decent PG would be an upgrade over Westbrook, as long as that PG can shoot and defend. Holiday can shoot and defend. Ultimately, the end result will be that shots taken inefficiently by Westbrook will get taken by other players in a more efficient manner. Westbrook was excellent at feeding the bigs at the rim, but he was also turnover prone and pretty bad at kicking out to the shooters for open looks from 3. I think the difference in passing pre and post Westbrook will be a wash.

The only question to me is whether or not Westbrook's rebounding was a mirage or not. Was he merely stealing rebounds from his teammates, or will his absence result in us losing the battle of the boards every night?

Yes, Westbrook’s inefficient play and turnovers hurt, but don’t underestimate the impact his instincts and otherworldly effort had on helping the Zards win games.

A block shot at the end of one game…a rebound off a missed FT at the end of another, etc.

Yes, but also don't underestimate the problems caused by his gambling on defense when it didn't result in a block. Westbrook's freelancing style on defense is more often a hindrance than a benefit. You notice the good plays but miss the bad plays.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#72 » by payitforward » Mon Aug 2, 2021 3:10 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:...Overall, I'd rate Aaron a little above both Neto and Ish.

I can't see why, honestly.

In 3 years, Holiday hasn't had a season as good as Ish had for us last year -- & nowhere near as good as Neto' last season.

Well, it is certainly debatable between Aaron and Ish. I think Holiday is better - but not by a bunch. Why? I think he is a better defender (at least with respect to guarding other PGs). Although one could argue that last year that wasn't the case - but I would say that is an "anomaly year" - that team (Indy) was so dang dysfunctional.

I would also say that he is a better 3 point shooter. And will be a lower usage player than Ish while scoring more efficiently.

I have a difficult time making the same argument Neto.

In either case - all three are backup PGs, I don't see a material difference between the three in terms of overall W/L (full circle).

Not much to choose as to 3 point % between Ish & Holiday. But Ish gets way more assists & is a strong rebounder for a guard -- way better than Holiday.

Put it another way: look at rebounds & turnovers for the 2 guys. For every 4 rebounds Holiday gets, he turns the ball over 3 times. For every 4 rebounds Ish gets, he turns the ball over 1 time. Those 2 extra possessions create team benefits that don't show up on Ish's stats.

Holiday plays like a veteran minimum guy. But we're paying him @$5m. He'd better be a good defender! :)
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#73 » by DCZards » Mon Aug 2, 2021 3:37 pm

payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
payitforward wrote:I can't see why, honestly.

In 3 years, Holiday hasn't had a season as good as Ish had for us last year -- & nowhere near as good as Neto' last season.

Well, it is certainly debatable between Aaron and Ish. I think Holiday is better - but not by a bunch. Why? I think he is a better defender (at least with respect to guarding other PGs). Although one could argue that last year that wasn't the case - but I would say that is an "anomaly year" - that team (Indy) was so dang dysfunctional.

I would also say that he is a better 3 point shooter. And will be a lower usage player than Ish while scoring more efficiently.

I have a difficult time making the same argument Neto.

In either case - all three are backup PGs, I don't see a material difference between the three in terms of overall W/L (full circle).

Not much to choose as to 3 point % between Ish & Holiday. But Ish gets way more assists & is a strong rebounder for a guard -- way better than Holiday.

Put it another way: look at rebounds & turnovers for the 2 guys. For every 4 rebounds Holiday gets, he turns the ball over 3 times. For every 4 rebounds Ish gets, he turns the ball over 1 time. Those 2 extra possessions create team benefits that don't show up on Ish's stats.

Holiday plays like a veteran minimum guy. But we're paying him @$5m. He'd better be a good defender! :)

Comparing the numbers of a 32 year old with 10 yrs of NBA experience and stats to a 24 year old with 3 yrs of NBA experience and stats tells me very little…especially as it relates to what will happen in the future.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#74 » by dckingsfan » Mon Aug 2, 2021 5:28 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Well, it is certainly debatable between Aaron and Ish. I think Holiday is better - but not by a bunch. Why? I think he is a better defender (at least with respect to guarding other PGs). Although one could argue that last year that wasn't the case - but I would say that is an "anomaly year" - that team (Indy) was so dang dysfunctional.

I would also say that he is a better 3 point shooter. And will be a lower usage player than Ish while scoring more efficiently.

I have a difficult time making the same argument Neto.

In either case - all three are backup PGs, I don't see a material difference between the three in terms of overall W/L (full circle).

Not much to choose as to 3 point % between Ish & Holiday. But Ish gets way more assists & is a strong rebounder for a guard -- way better than Holiday.

Put it another way: look at rebounds & turnovers for the 2 guys. For every 4 rebounds Holiday gets, he turns the ball over 3 times. For every 4 rebounds Ish gets, he turns the ball over 1 time. Those 2 extra possessions create team benefits that don't show up on Ish's stats.

Holiday plays like a veteran minimum guy. But we're paying him @$5m. He'd better be a good defender! :)

Comparing the numbers of a 32 year old with 10 yrs of NBA experience and stats to a 24 year old with 3 yrs of NBA experience and stats tells me very little…especially as it relates to what will happen in the future.

I would agree you on that - for that we should look at his year over year progression. Still not seeing it...

Code: Select all

Age   MP     TS%    DRB%   AST%   STL%   BLK%   TOV%   USG%   WS/48   VORP
22    646   0.518   10.4   19.3   1.6    1.8    12.3   21.9   0.065    0.1
23   1617   0.521    9.0   19.1   1.7    0.9    12.8   18.7   0.063    0.2
24   1176   0.503    6.8   14.0   1.8    0.9    12.3   19.5   0.009   -0.6
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#75 » by DCZards » Mon Aug 2, 2021 5:38 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:Not much to choose as to 3 point % between Ish & Holiday. But Ish gets way more assists & is a strong rebounder for a guard -- way better than Holiday.

Put it another way: look at rebounds & turnovers for the 2 guys. For every 4 rebounds Holiday gets, he turns the ball over 3 times. For every 4 rebounds Ish gets, he turns the ball over 1 time. Those 2 extra possessions create team benefits that don't show up on Ish's stats.

Holiday plays like a veteran minimum guy. But we're paying him @$5m. He'd better be a good defender! :)

Comparing the numbers of a 32 year old with 10 yrs of NBA experience and stats to a 24 year old with 3 yrs of NBA experience and stats tells me very little…especially as it relates to what will happen in the future.

I would agree you on that - for that we should look at his year over year progression. Still not seeing it...

Code: Select all

Age   MP     TS%    DRB%   AST%   STL%   BLK%   TOV%   USG%   WS/48   VORP
22    646   0.518   10.4   19.3   1.6    1.8    12.3   21.9   0.065    0.1
23   1617   0.521    9.0   19.1   1.7    0.9    12.8   18.7   0.063    0.2
24   1176   0.503    6.8   14.0   1.8    0.9    12.3   19.5   0.009   -0.6

I’m not putting much stock into last season when Holiday was forced to often play off the ball (because of the presence of McConnell) and his minutes went down significantly from the previous year.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#76 » by Ruzious » Mon Aug 2, 2021 5:40 pm

payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
payitforward wrote:I can't see why, honestly.

In 3 years, Holiday hasn't had a season as good as Ish had for us last year -- & nowhere near as good as Neto' last season.

Well, it is certainly debatable between Aaron and Ish. I think Holiday is better - but not by a bunch. Why? I think he is a better defender (at least with respect to guarding other PGs). Although one could argue that last year that wasn't the case - but I would say that is an "anomaly year" - that team (Indy) was so dang dysfunctional.

I would also say that he is a better 3 point shooter. And will be a lower usage player than Ish while scoring more efficiently.

I have a difficult time making the same argument Neto.

In either case - all three are backup PGs, I don't see a material difference between the three in terms of overall W/L (full circle).

Not much to choose as to 3 point % between Ish & Holiday. But Ish gets way more assists & is a strong rebounder for a guard -- way better than Holiday.

Put it another way: look at rebounds & turnovers for the 2 guys. For every 4 rebounds Holiday gets, he turns the ball over 3 times. For every 4 rebounds Ish gets, he turns the ball over 1 time. Those 2 extra possessions create team benefits that don't show up on Ish's stats.

Holiday plays like a veteran minimum guy. But we're paying him @$5m. He'd better be a good defender! :)

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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#77 » by payitforward » Tue Aug 3, 2021 1:26 am

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Well, it is certainly debatable between Aaron and Ish. I think Holiday is better - but not by a bunch. Why? I think he is a better defender (at least with respect to guarding other PGs). Although one could argue that last year that wasn't the case - but I would say that is an "anomaly year" - that team (Indy) was so dang dysfunctional.

I would also say that he is a better 3 point shooter. And will be a lower usage player than Ish while scoring more efficiently.

I have a difficult time making the same argument Neto.

In either case - all three are backup PGs, I don't see a material difference between the three in terms of overall W/L (full circle).

Not much to choose as to 3 point % between Ish & Holiday. But Ish gets way more assists & is a strong rebounder for a guard -- way better than Holiday.

Put it another way: look at rebounds & turnovers for the 2 guys. For every 4 rebounds Holiday gets, he turns the ball over 3 times. For every 4 rebounds Ish gets, he turns the ball over 1 time. Those 2 extra possessions create team benefits that don't show up on Ish's stats.

Holiday plays like a veteran minimum guy. But we're paying him @$5m. He'd better be a good defender! :)

Comparing the numbers of a 32 year old with 10 yrs of NBA experience and stats to a 24 year old with 3 yrs of NBA experience and stats tells me very little…especially as it relates to what will happen in the future.

I think that's a fair criticism, Zards. But, keep in mind that someone else compared him to Ish -- all I did was look at whether the comparison made sense. Moreover, the reason for the comparison was, I suppose, that it's Ish who AH will be as it were replacing.

I'd like Aaron Holiday to be absolutely terrific, btw.

So... is there someone it would make more sense to compare him to?

Better yet, is there a model -- a point guard who started out the way Holiday has played his first 3400 NBA minutes & then went on in a way that would be a good model for understanding Holiday's game & its potential?
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#78 » by dckingsfan » Tue Aug 3, 2021 2:15 am

DCZards wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
DCZards wrote:Comparing the numbers of a 32 year old with 10 yrs of NBA experience and stats to a 24 year old with 3 yrs of NBA experience and stats tells me very little…especially as it relates to what will happen in the future.

I would agree you on that - for that we should look at his year over year progression. Still not seeing it...

Code: Select all

Age   MP     TS%    DRB%   AST%   STL%   BLK%   TOV%   USG%   WS/48   VORP
22    646   0.518   10.4   19.3   1.6    1.8    12.3   21.9   0.065    0.1
23   1617   0.521    9.0   19.1   1.7    0.9    12.8   18.7   0.063    0.2
24   1176   0.503    6.8   14.0   1.8    0.9    12.3   19.5   0.009   -0.6

I’m not putting much stock into last season when Holiday was forced to often play off the ball (because of the presence of McConnell) and his minutes went down significantly from the previous year.

Ah - hope, prayer and the eye test then. Well, I am right there with you. We are hosed otherwise.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#79 » by DCZards » Tue Aug 3, 2021 2:22 am

payitforward wrote:
DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:Not much to choose as to 3 point % between Ish & Holiday. But Ish gets way more assists & is a strong rebounder for a guard -- way better than Holiday.

Put it another way: look at rebounds & turnovers for the 2 guys. For every 4 rebounds Holiday gets, he turns the ball over 3 times. For every 4 rebounds Ish gets, he turns the ball over 1 time. Those 2 extra possessions create team benefits that don't show up on Ish's stats.

Holiday plays like a veteran minimum guy. But we're paying him @$5m. He'd better be a good defender! :)[/size]

Comparing the numbers of a 32 year old with 10 yrs of NBA experience and stats to a 24 year old with 3 yrs of NBA experience and stats tells me very little…especially as it relates to what will happen in the future.

I think that's a fair criticism, Zards. But, keep in mind that someone else compared him to Ish -- all I did was look at whether the comparison made sense. Moreover, the reason for the comparison was, I suppose, that it's Ish who AH will be as it were replacing.

I'd like Aaron Holiday to be absolutely terrific, btw.

So... is there someone it would make more sense to compare him to?

Better yet, is there a model -- a point guard who started out the way Holiday has played his first 3400 NBA minutes & then went on in a way that would be a good model for understanding Holiday's game & its potential?

I absolutely hate to compare players because we're dealing with men and not machines...and they are all individuals.

But when I look at Fred VanVleet's third year where he played 1760 minutes and Holiday's second year where he played 1617 minutes the #s are awfully similar.

There's no reason to believe that Holiday can't improve along the lines that VanVleet has.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#80 » by doclinkin » Tue Aug 3, 2021 2:46 am

538's top 5 Similarity score says Aaron Holliday had a A 66% resemblance to the wizard (Sonic/Bullet actually) Gus Williams. 64% resemblance to BJ Armstong. A couple nobodies at 62% and a 61% resemblance to... Raul Neto.

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