How much can coaching improve the Trailblazers?

[Village Idiot]

Clearly nothing major is going to happen with the roster this off-season. Let's pivot over to coaching. Much has been made of Billups private life but I'm struggling to find anything substantive about his coaching philosophy.

Looking at last season's team a couple of things stand out at me in terms of play style.

FG% - 23rd
3 point shooting - 2nd in attempts, 6th in percentage
Assists - 30th! Yes. Last place. A team with Dame, CJ and Nurk finished dead last, also worst in 2pt and 3 point attempts unassisted
Assist percentage - dead last by a big margin
Free throws - attempts 13th, percentage 3rd
Turnovers - 1st (best), opponent points off turnovers 1st
Steals - 25th
Blocks - 13th
Pace 19th
Defensive rating - 29th
Opponent point in the paint - 14th
Def rebounding percentage - 20th
Transition playtype - 22nd in frequency, 25th in PPP
Isolation playtype - 1st in frequency at 10.2% of possessions but also most effective with 1.06 PPP
Pick and roll playtype - 6th in frequency at 20.5% of possessions but also 1st in effectiveness with 1 PPP
Post up playtype - 8th in frequency and 19th in effectiveness (jesus Melo, make a freaking shot)
Put-backs - 3rd in frequency and 26th in effectiveness (this reeks of Kanter's inability to make the first tip-in)

A couple of things really stand out. We played a lot of 90's hero ball with Dame, CJ and Melo taking turns doing their thing. Ball movement and assists were putrid.

We didn't push the pace and took care of the ball.

We have some of the best three point shooters in the NBA and added another in Snell who lead the league in catch and shoot 3 point percentage.

Basically we have a team that is optimized to run the pick and roll (Zeller has a similar strength as Nurk with his screen, roll and passing skills) and find the open shooter. I hope we have some more movement this year though and that Billups can get Dame to do more off ball.

The defense sucks but we already knew that.

[Dzon Dilindzer]

coach can make team play better or worse than expected and hopefully chauncey billups makes this team play better than expected and he surely has really god starting five when it comes to offense, this team can fire on all cylinders and chauncey himself said that he wants more player & ball movement, he mentioned that nurk can score more and he will have bigger role than it was under terry stotts and nurk fits perfectly in chanucey billups offense with his passing & pnr game and we should expect backdoor passes etc, maybe interior passing, i mean, nurk can do all these things and he will likely be key to our offense

starting five can score a lot and it will be really difficult to stop (i certainly dont want to see as much iso ball or as much 3-pointers for that matter), but the question is how much can starting five improve on the defensive end of the floor... chauncey have spoken about defense a lot, so one would expect improvements on that end and of course putting the right players to play together, not like what terry stotts used to do, send out there worst defenders to play together

if chauncey can make cj mccollum (first and foremost) & powell to play team bball and share the ball, im sure were gonna have one of the best offenses in the league, quite possibly top 5 offense and i expect improvement on the defensive end, not worse than 15th defense, but anything better than that would be a pleasant surprise

simons will likely be leading bench player, were gonna need his scoring and hopefully he improves his game, little will also be in the rotation, good energy player who can become legit 3&d player and well see what rest of the bench has in store for us, but as of now, the only guys in whom i believe are simons and little

as great as our offense can and i will say, will be, success of this team will depend on defense and thats up to coaching staff and neil olshey obviously and if pascal siakam is available, he should trade for him

[DusterBuster]

I'm gonna be pretty stunned if Dame doesn't demand a trade before the season starts tbh. I'll be even more shocked if he's still on the team before the first of the year.

[soobias]

this is why im partly OK with full tear down and start from scratch sort of.
it seems like we're always at the lower end on assist and defense and i don't think coaches will change it that much when players are set in their ways and this is his 1st coaching gig so he's prob just happy to have it and might not want to ruffle any feathers so to speak.

but N.O. needs to go 1st imo

[Norm2953]

One thing to keep in mind is that the NBA is beginning to investigate the free agent deals for Lonzo
Ball and Kyle Lowry and will likely be seeing if other NBA teams are tampering in trying to get in
the ear of players like Dame who are under contract to see if they can talk him into asking for
a trade. Those sign/trade deals are complicated and the speed and rapidity of these trades in
the first four days of free agency strongly suggest there is more tampering this summer than is
normal.

[Epicurus]

We shall see if the Blazers with a very similar roster and a different coach are 1st in offensive ranking and say 15th in defensive rating, if the health situation is comparable.

There is no preordained RIGHT offensive playstyle for every team. What is right is what works for that team.

[Dzon Dilindzer]

dame or no dame, im so excited about chauncey billups coaching this team, that i cant even emphasize that enough

Watch on YouTube

[Epicurus]

To some, an ounce of appearance is worth a pound of preformance, it would appear.

[GEE]

To answer the question... I would say coaching could improve the Blazers quite a bit, but clearly has it's limitations due to the current roster construction, and it's history of not being able to stay healthy.

With the displays from Monte Williams and Thibs last year, many teams have decided to make changes to the HC position, and there are a few up and comers. Good coaching obviously matters, but to win the title... Players, coaches, management and ownership all need to bring their A Game to have a successful run, and we clearly are lacking in at least one of those areas.

[JasonStern]

I'm gonna be pretty stunned if Dame doesn't demand a trade before the season starts tbh. I'll be even more shocked if he's still on the team before the first of the year.

I think Dame plays out this season. It's next season - after the front office refusing to bring in help per his request, another disappointing playoff run, with Nurkić and Covington due for extensions that the Blazers will be unlikely willing to pay, that the whole house of cards collapses.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm gonna be pretty stunned if Dame doesn't demand a trade before the season starts tbh. I'll be even more shocked if he's still on the team before the first of the year.

I think Dame plays out this season. It's next season - after the front office refusing to bring in help per his request, another disappointing playoff run, with Nurkić and Covington due for extensions that the Blazers will be unlikely willing to pay, that the whole house of cards collapses.

yeah, I tend to agree with that. I'd bet Olshey has sold Seattle on one final roll of the dice with Dame/CJ team even though the evidence is conclusive it won't make for a contender

I think people may be over-estimating Seattle's willingness to pay for a winner. I don't think there is much willingness to do so. Blazers could have about a 5.4M TPE for Zach (just like they got a 4M TPE for Layman; and they could have a 5.9M expiring contract for using their tax-MLE on a player. Both are decent trade chips. Right now, they have neither

I detest Olshey and think he's just about the worse GM Portland has had if for no other reason than he has wasted 9 years of the best player in Blazer history because of his ego-driven myopia. And it's looking to me that next summer, he'll get to "re-tool" the Blazers and I'd bet he tries and build a team around CJ. Gag-reflex fully engaged

as far as the question in the OP....a coach can improve a team. he can also make it worse. Popovich is a HOF coach and he hasn't done anything since Duncan retired. X's and O's only take a team so far, then it's Jimmy's and Joe's. Portland has a Jimmy, but no Joe

[DusterBuster]

I'm gonna be pretty stunned if Dame doesn't demand a trade before the season starts tbh. I'll be even more shocked if he's still on the team before the first of the year.

I think Dame plays out this season. It's next season - after the front office refusing to bring in help per his request, another disappointing playoff run, with Nurkić and Covington due for extensions that the Blazers will be unlikely willing to pay, that the whole house of cards collapses.

We'll see. Certainly not unrealistic of an expectation. My theory is he's gonna get back to camp and basically quietly let it be known to Olshey his displeasure with how little was done this summer to improve the team and to begin looking for deals. So a "quiet" trade demand if you will.

I think you're right, that he starts the season with the team... maybe by some miracle Olshey's gamble pays off and the team is significantly better with a new coach and that pulls Dame through the whole season without problem, but if they are struggling in Oct/Nov/Dec, I could see him pushing harder for a trade out of town.

[Norm2953]

It's going to be a waiting game with Philly for if Portland can convince Dame to start the season
in Portland, they will have the edge on Philly for I'm less convinced they can go into next season
with Simmons.

Likely they will have to offload a big contract for Emblid is now eligible for a supermax extension
for $191/4. One way or another, they will be one of those teams that is paying their entire cap
for three players and will have to fill out the rest of their roster with vet min guys.

[monopoman]

To some, an ounce of appearance is worth a pound of preformance, it would appear.

Pretty hard to rate the performance of a coach that hasn't coached a single game yet. At this point ANYTHING said on this Billups is speculation it has nothing to do with any basis in reality no matter how bad or good you think he will be.

[monopoman]

It's going to be a waiting game with Philly for if Portland can convince Dame to start the season
in Portland, they will have the edge on Philly for I'm less convinced they can go into next season
with Simmons.

Likely they will have to offload a big contract for Emblid is now eligible for a supermax extension
for $191/4. One way or another, they will be one of those teams that is paying their entire cap
for three players and will have to fill out the rest of their roster with vet min guys.

If Dame is traded no way we deal him to Philly, Simmons has made it perfectly clear he wants California based teams only we aren't trading him for a disgruntled Simmons that will just bitch about being in Portland.

Now if it's part of some 3 team deal where Dame goes to Philly and Simmons goes elsewhere, and we get young talent from a 3rd team and picks then sure maybe.

[PDXKnight]

dame or no dame, im so excited about chauncey billups coaching this team, that i cant even emphasize that enough

Watch on YouTube

He seems like a rebuilding/developmental kind of coach. We will see if that wins with vets in their prime as a rookie coach it could go either way even if he does look good on paper

[BNM]

Clearly nothing major is going to happen with the roster this off-season.

I'm not sure that's a forgone conclusion. I certainly hope that's not the case. You posted 5 days after the start of free agency. Given the cap situation, we all knew POR wasn't going to sign any big name free agents. We're still two and a half months away from opening night. There's a lot of time left to make a trade, or trades, which is really the only way POR can improve their roster.

We know for a fact Ben Simmons and Pascal Siakam are being shopped and we have a player who can match their contracts. Even if it isn't a 1-for-1 swap, it could end up being a 3 or 4 team trade.

There is too much at stake for Neil to stand pat. The re-signing of Norm, plus adding Snell and McLemore make trading CJ for help at forward easier than ever. Plus, we can add young, cheap players (Simons and Little), future 1st round picks and pick swaps and a significant expiring contract (DJJ) that would be attractive to a rebuilding team (like TOR).

If CJ is still on the roster on opening night, Neil should be fired on the spot. I hope he's just holding out for the best deal and not stupidly thinking about running it back yet again. That's a sure way to lose the best player in franchise history.

[BNM]

As far as what differences Chauncey will make, he played in the NBA for 17 seasons, on some very good teams, under some very good coaches. Of course, the NBA champ Pistons were one of the best defensive teams of the last 20 years and when he played for Flip Saunders in both MIN and DET, both squads were 2nd in the league in assists. So, he's played under coaches and in systems with a strong emphasis on defense and ball movement. He seems like a smart guy. Hopefully, he can pass along to this POR team things he learned from other successful coaches.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Health and continuity are more likely to explain any improvements but if we don't take an obvious step backwards I'll consider that a win for a rookie coach in this situation. The expectation's from management are probably higher than mine however since Olshey is expecting Billups to be his magic get out of jail free card.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm not sure that's a forgone conclusion. I certainly hope that's not the case. You posted 5 days after the start of free agency. Given the cap situation, we all knew POR wasn't going to sign any big name free agents. We're still two and a half months away from opening night. There's a lot of time left to make a trade, or trades, which is really the only way POR can improve their roster.

it needs to be pointed out that while free agency is a week old, Portland could have made trades for the last "two and a half months" just like they can for the next two and a half months. The second the buzzer sounded ending game 6 against Denver, Portland was free to make trades. In that two and a half months, the only thing Portland has done is trade cash for a 43rd pick

If CJ is still on the roster on opening night, Neil should be fired on the spot. I hope he's just holding out for the best deal and not stupidly thinking about running it back yet again. That's a sure way to lose the best player in franchise history.

I'm convinced that Olshey would rather trade Dame than CJ. The way he has managed Portland's off-season for the last two and a half months sure suggest that. I don't believe for a second he's making any serious offers than include CJ. And there are plenty of tweets and reports from people outside of Portland that confirm that.

You mentioned Siakam. Well, Jake Fisher who has been as accurate with his calls as Woj. He is connected with Toronto has said that the PDX/TOR talks on Siakam showed that Olshey placed a ridiculous value on CJ and that it was Portland that killed the discussions and withdrew because Toronto didn't share the view on CJ's value.

my prediction is that Olshey will try to run it back because he's determined to be proven right about the roster not being the problem. He cares a lot more about that than keeping Dame happy