ImageImageImage

Trade Talk (Part Seven)

Moderators: Domejandro, Worm Guts, Calinks

shangrila
RealGM
Posts: 13,572
And1: 6,659
Joined: Dec 21, 2009
Location: Land of Aus
 

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1921 » by shangrila » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:39 am

shrink wrote:
Baseline81 wrote:Jon Krawczynski joined Dan Barreiro earlier today:
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/139-the-dan-barreiro-show-26981004/

Latest on Simmons:
- He knows, for a fact, the Wolves continue to try and engage on Simmons -- have not given up as the team believes he would be a great fit.
- Doesn't think there's a huge market out there for him. Teams, at this point, want to start the season and see what they have.
- 76ers asking for the moon and stars, holding out in hopes Lillard pushes the ejection seat to force the Blazers to the table.
- Indications are Simmons is not enamored coming to training camp and starting season with Philly.
- Anticipates asking price could drop over next couple of weeks. Wolves would still need to find a third team to give 76ers the win-now package.
- Feels Beverley may be an asset to be used in Simmons deal. Easier to sell than the likes of Culver and Hernangomez.


I also wanted to remind people just how hard it is to build a team around Simmons extreme limitations. I’m not saying he isn’t good at what he does do, but as the Sixers know, he doesn’t fit with a lot of teams. Most teams don’t have the right mix, and those that were close lost the time it takes during the summer to get the right pieces around him. I think Morey made a mistake by asking for the moon and delaying a trade, because it cost him buyers - they needed to get on with their summer and build their rosters without Simmons.

Again, I disagree with people who say he is a “perfect fit” here. He minimizes Towns advantage of forcing a big to defend both our bigs outside, and by packing Simmons defender lower, they clog the lane, hurting Edwards too. I’d also remind people MIN was 25th in 3P% last season. I have never believed PHI can just bring Simmons back, but there aren’t many teams who would trade for him now either. I hope MIN passes on him.

Can’t be that hard. The Sixers managed a 1 seed despite featuring him and his crippling weaknesses.
shangrila
RealGM
Posts: 13,572
And1: 6,659
Joined: Dec 21, 2009
Location: Land of Aus
 

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1922 » by shangrila » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:43 am

winforlose wrote:
Krapinsky wrote:
winforlose wrote:
I didn’t pretend anything of the sort, I simply addressed things as they are. Simmons limits KAT’s options as well as Ant’s. Dlo doesn’t need clean driving lanes but the other two do, and they are less likely to get them with Simmons.


Players still guard Simmons. He’s too skilled and too big to leave open. You can’t give him space because he’ll get a head of steam and just take it to the hoop. Giannis is same way. Bucks had no problem winning NBA championship with him taking away driving lanes of other players. Yet somehow Simmons screws up the offensive symphony of Timberwolves?

Let’s get real. This squad is projected to win 36.5 games by Vegas. That means no playoffs and drafting in the late lottery. But 36.5 might even be optimistic—The wolves have been under the Vegas line 17 of last 20 years.

Simmons without Embiid is 11-11, a 41 pace projection. If past performance is any indication, then he alone is likely better than this entire Wolves team, but somehow it’s spacing for Kat’s post ups that we’re worried about? Give me a break.


Dude costs max money, cannot jump shoot from mid range or 3, cannot get 10 boards per game, and is averaging less than 15 points. He isn’t even close to KAT’s level much less the whole team. He had a more talented roster and couldn’t make it work there. Our entire offense is geared for distance shooting, a fact made obvious by the trading away of almost everyone who couldn’t distance shoot. Simmons is not worth multiple draft picks and multiple rotation players.

But humoring you for a minute, let’s assume we make a deal and send away multiple bench guys plus Beasley. Please explain how the collapse of the second unit is fixed by saving perhaps 10-15 points on defense. (Best case scenario?)

Couldn’t make it work? What, did I miss their play in game?

Oh, right, they were the 1 seed. Total failures.
winforlose
RealGM
Posts: 13,457
And1: 5,981
Joined: Feb 27, 2020

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1923 » by winforlose » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:48 am

shangrila wrote:
winforlose wrote:
Krapinsky wrote:
Players still guard Simmons. He’s too skilled and too big to leave open. You can’t give him space because he’ll get a head of steam and just take it to the hoop. Giannis is same way. Bucks had no problem winning NBA championship with him taking away driving lanes of other players. Yet somehow Simmons screws up the offensive symphony of Timberwolves?

Let’s get real. This squad is projected to win 36.5 games by Vegas. That means no playoffs and drafting in the late lottery. But 36.5 might even be optimistic—The wolves have been under the Vegas line 17 of last 20 years.

Simmons without Embiid is 11-11, a 41 pace projection. If past performance is any indication, then he alone is likely better than this entire Wolves team, but somehow it’s spacing for Kat’s post ups that we’re worried about? Give me a break.


Dude costs max money, cannot jump shoot from mid range or 3, cannot get 10 boards per game, and is averaging less than 15 points. He isn’t even close to KAT’s level much less the whole team. He had a more talented roster and couldn’t make it work there. Our entire offense is geared for distance shooting, a fact made obvious by the trading away of almost everyone who couldn’t distance shoot. Simmons is not worth multiple draft picks and multiple rotation players.

But humoring you for a minute, let’s assume we make a deal and send away multiple bench guys plus Beasley. Please explain how the collapse of the second unit is fixed by saving perhaps 10-15 points on defense. (Best case scenario?)

Couldn’t make it work? What, did I miss their play in game?

Oh, right, they were the 1 seed. Total failures.


Yeah Seth Curry, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and the rest of the 76ers roster had nothing to do with it. It was all Simmons and the 58 games he played.

Look, I am not saying he is a bad player or that he did not contribute to his team. I am saying he is a bad fit and overpaid by about 20 million dollars given his severe limitations. Best case scenario he is a taller JO with a better handle. Worst case, he is a taller JO who gets in the way.
User avatar
King Malta
Starter
Posts: 2,328
And1: 1,554
Joined: Jun 24, 2013
Location: The Lottery
         

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1924 » by King Malta » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:49 am

shangrila wrote:
winforlose wrote:
Krapinsky wrote:
Players still guard Simmons. He’s too skilled and too big to leave open. You can’t give him space because he’ll get a head of steam and just take it to the hoop. Giannis is same way. Bucks had no problem winning NBA championship with him taking away driving lanes of other players. Yet somehow Simmons screws up the offensive symphony of Timberwolves?

Let’s get real. This squad is projected to win 36.5 games by Vegas. That means no playoffs and drafting in the late lottery. But 36.5 might even be optimistic—The wolves have been under the Vegas line 17 of last 20 years.

Simmons without Embiid is 11-11, a 41 pace projection. If past performance is any indication, then he alone is likely better than this entire Wolves team, but somehow it’s spacing for Kat’s post ups that we’re worried about? Give me a break.


Dude costs max money, cannot jump shoot from mid range or 3, cannot get 10 boards per game, and is averaging less than 15 points. He isn’t even close to KAT’s level much less the whole team. He had a more talented roster and couldn’t make it work there. Our entire offense is geared for distance shooting, a fact made obvious by the trading away of almost everyone who couldn’t distance shoot. Simmons is not worth multiple draft picks and multiple rotation players.

But humoring you for a minute, let’s assume we make a deal and send away multiple bench guys plus Beasley. Please explain how the collapse of the second unit is fixed by saving perhaps 10-15 points on defense. (Best case scenario?)

Couldn’t make it work? What, did I miss their play in game?

Oh, right, they were the 1 seed. Total failures.


What I wouldn't give to be a #1 seed that lost in the conference semi-finals....that would only just fall short of our greatest ever season :lol:
shangrila
RealGM
Posts: 13,572
And1: 6,659
Joined: Dec 21, 2009
Location: Land of Aus
 

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1925 » by shangrila » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:50 am

winforlose wrote:
shangrila wrote:
winforlose wrote:
Dude costs max money, cannot jump shoot from mid range or 3, cannot get 10 boards per game, and is averaging less than 15 points. He isn’t even close to KAT’s level much less the whole team. He had a more talented roster and couldn’t make it work there. Our entire offense is geared for distance shooting, a fact made obvious by the trading away of almost everyone who couldn’t distance shoot. Simmons is not worth multiple draft picks and multiple rotation players.

But humoring you for a minute, let’s assume we make a deal and send away multiple bench guys plus Beasley. Please explain how the collapse of the second unit is fixed by saving perhaps 10-15 points on defense. (Best case scenario?)

Couldn’t make it work? What, did I miss their play in game?

Oh, right, they were the 1 seed. Total failures.


Yeah Seth Curry, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and the rest of the 76ers roster had nothing to do with it. It was all Simmons and the 58 games he played.

Look, I am not saying he is a bad player or that he did not contribute to his team. I am saying he is a bad fit and overpaid by about 20 million dollars given his severe limitations. Best case scenario he is a taller JO with a better handle. Worst case, he is a taller JO who gets in the way.

You think he’s a better Okogie?

Anything to back that up?
shangrila
RealGM
Posts: 13,572
And1: 6,659
Joined: Dec 21, 2009
Location: Land of Aus
 

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1926 » by shangrila » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:52 am

King Malta wrote:
shangrila wrote:
winforlose wrote:
Dude costs max money, cannot jump shoot from mid range or 3, cannot get 10 boards per game, and is averaging less than 15 points. He isn’t even close to KAT’s level much less the whole team. He had a more talented roster and couldn’t make it work there. Our entire offense is geared for distance shooting, a fact made obvious by the trading away of almost everyone who couldn’t distance shoot. Simmons is not worth multiple draft picks and multiple rotation players.

But humoring you for a minute, let’s assume we make a deal and send away multiple bench guys plus Beasley. Please explain how the collapse of the second unit is fixed by saving perhaps 10-15 points on defense. (Best case scenario?)

Couldn’t make it work? What, did I miss their play in game?

Oh, right, they were the 1 seed. Total failures.


What I wouldn't give to be a #1 seed that lost in the conference semi-finals....that would only just fall short of our greatest ever season :lol:

I swear, it’s like watching a group of 300 pound guys turning down 8s and 9s because they’re not perfect 10s.
Neeva
General Manager
Posts: 7,564
And1: 2,928
Joined: Jun 03, 2016

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1927 » by Neeva » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:54 am

:banghead:
shangrila wrote:
King Malta wrote:
shangrila wrote:Couldn’t make it work? What, did I miss their play in game?

Oh, right, they were the 1 seed. Total failures.


What I wouldn't give to be a #1 seed that lost in the conference semi-finals....that would only just fall short of our greatest ever season :lol:

I swear, it’s like watching a group of 300 pound guys turning down 8s and 9s because they’re not perfect 10s.


And you are acting like 76ers aren’t a **** with Simmons wanting out which is mostly because of his mental collapses, bad fit and contract? LOL those things aren’t going to magically go away on the wolves.
shangrila
RealGM
Posts: 13,572
And1: 6,659
Joined: Dec 21, 2009
Location: Land of Aus
 

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1928 » by shangrila » Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:57 am

Neeva wrote::banghead:
shangrila wrote:
King Malta wrote:
What I wouldn't give to be a #1 seed that lost in the conference semi-finals....that would only just fall short of our greatest ever season :lol:

I swear, it’s like watching a group of 300 pound guys turning down 8s and 9s because they’re not perfect 10s.


And you are acting like 76ers aren’t a **** with Simmons wanting out ? LOL

Don’t care about the Sixers .

Care that some fans seem to forget we’re not the Lakers. We don’t have room to be picky. Win and sort it out later.
winforlose
RealGM
Posts: 13,457
And1: 5,981
Joined: Feb 27, 2020

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1929 » by winforlose » Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:06 am

shangrila wrote:
winforlose wrote:
shangrila wrote:Couldn’t make it work? What, did I miss their play in game?

Oh, right, they were the 1 seed. Total failures.


Yeah Seth Curry, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and the rest of the 76ers roster had nothing to do with it. It was all Simmons and the 58 games he played.

Look, I am not saying he is a bad player or that he did not contribute to his team. I am saying he is a bad fit and overpaid by about 20 million dollars given his severe limitations. Best case scenario he is a taller JO with a better handle. Worst case, he is a taller JO who gets in the way.

You think he’s a better Okogie?

Anything to back that up?


14.7% 3 point shooting on his career. I cannot quickly look up his 2 point shooting outside the paint but the numbers are not going to be great. He is a defensive player who can only score inside. JO is very similar. Simmons is a higher quality ball handler and passer, but he also costs roughly 7 times as much. If Simmons was free or only cost us Beverly, Prince and a 1st I would do it. Of course we would need our owner to be okay being in a huge luxury tax commitment for the next 4 years and essentially buying wins instead of earning them, but that is what the NBA is becoming thanks to the Warriors, Nets and soon more team.
User avatar
King Malta
Starter
Posts: 2,328
And1: 1,554
Joined: Jun 24, 2013
Location: The Lottery
         

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1930 » by King Malta » Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:08 am

winforlose wrote:
shangrila wrote:
winforlose wrote:
Dude costs max money, cannot jump shoot from mid range or 3, cannot get 10 boards per game, and is averaging less than 15 points. He isn’t even close to KAT’s level much less the whole team. He had a more talented roster and couldn’t make it work there. Our entire offense is geared for distance shooting, a fact made obvious by the trading away of almost everyone who couldn’t distance shoot. Simmons is not worth multiple draft picks and multiple rotation players.

But humoring you for a minute, let’s assume we make a deal and send away multiple bench guys plus Beasley. Please explain how the collapse of the second unit is fixed by saving perhaps 10-15 points on defense. (Best case scenario?)

Couldn’t make it work? What, did I miss their play in game?

Oh, right, they were the 1 seed. Total failures.


Yeah Seth Curry, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and the rest of the 76ers roster had nothing to do with it. It was all Simmons and the 58 games he played.

Look, I am not saying he is a bad player or that he did not contribute to his team. I am saying he is a bad fit and overpaid by about 20 million dollars given his severe limitations. Best case scenario he is a taller JO with a better handle. Worst case, he is a taller JO who gets in the way.


Overpaid by 20 million dollars :lol:

He makes 33 this season. You're telling me a guy who basically averages 16-8-8 and is one of the premier defenders in the league is worth 13 million dollars?

We all know Ben Simmons has warts, and we all know what they are. Is he overpaid? I think so, by around 5-6 million perhaps. the last year of his contract is a doozy but by then he's expiring. Regardless he's still elite in a number of different areas and has consistently been part of successful teams at Philly despite many moving parts, basically him and Embiid (who misses about 25% of every season) are the only constants that team has had over the entire period. To basically write off Ben's contributions to those teams the way some people do is crazy to me.

In terms of my personal comfort in having his contract in this team, I think people are viewing it simply in isolation without taking into account the current state of our franchise and what possible changes can be made to increase the competitiveness of this team. Let's say for the sake of this argument that Ben Simmons is a bad contract and paying him somewhere between 33 and 40 million a year for the next 4 years is too much for what he brings. What alternative way are we going to be able to spend that money and make the Minnesota Timberwolves a more legitimate threat in the West in that period of time?

We're not going to bring in anyone on the FA market on that kind of contract. Partially because we're capped and partially because if we somehow got under the cap, no elite player that's available as a FA is signing a max in Minnesota, it's not happening. Is there another max player out there with 4 years of team control we could sign? Not at the moment, and it's highly unlikely we'd have the capital to bring one in if we were met with a serious bidding war in the next few years for a player of the level of say Lillard or Beal.

The alternative option to that I guess is that you add middling, value contracts for lesser assets and look to add other players via the draft. Well, if we're going to improve our record at all in the short term(which we really need to quickly otherwise we're approaching blow-up territory) then we're going to be picking outside the lottery, and in that case it's an absolute crap shoot. We're not going to find a McDaniels every year.

I get the hesitancy over Simmons but I feel like spending 33 million on him improves us more than spending 33 million on 2 rotation guys or the glut of rotation guys we've got on the team at the moment. Now, I don't want to overpay for him via trade either; Beasley, One of Prince/Beverley, 2 firsts is basically the maximum I'm willing to offer. Perhaps the 2 firsts and Beasley go to a third team to return an asset that the 6ers really want. I could be talked into McDaniels but that should come at the cost of substantial protection on one of the picks IMO

A team which contains a core rotation of: DLo, Simmons, KAT, Edwards, McDaniels, Reid, Prince/Beverley is a very competitive team and one that's capable of making the playoffs and at least winning a series IMO. At that point, perhaps you become a viable prospect to vets on the FA market who are happy to take a minimum to join a team in contention.
winforlose
RealGM
Posts: 13,457
And1: 5,981
Joined: Feb 27, 2020

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1931 » by winforlose » Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:24 am

King Malta wrote:
winforlose wrote:
shangrila wrote:Couldn’t make it work? What, did I miss their play in game?

Oh, right, they were the 1 seed. Total failures.


Yeah Seth Curry, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and the rest of the 76ers roster had nothing to do with it. It was all Simmons and the 58 games he played.

Look, I am not saying he is a bad player or that he did not contribute to his team. I am saying he is a bad fit and overpaid by about 20 million dollars given his severe limitations. Best case scenario he is a taller JO with a better handle. Worst case, he is a taller JO who gets in the way.


Overpaid by 20 million dollars :lol:

He makes 33 this season. You're telling me a guy who basically averages 16-8-8 and is one of the premier defenders in the league is worth 13 million dollars?

We all know Ben Simmons has warts, and we all know what they are. Is he overpaid? I think so, by around 5-6 million perhaps. the last year of his contract is a doozy but by then he's expiring. Regardless he's still elite in a number of different areas and has consistently been part of successful teams at Philly despite many moving parts, basically him and Embiid (who misses about 25% of every season) are the only constants that team has had over the entire period. To basically write off Ben's contributions to those teams the way some people do is crazy to me.

In terms of my personal comfort in having his contract in this team, I think people are viewing it simply in isolation without taking into account the current state of our franchise and what possible changes can be made to increase the competitiveness of this team. Let's say for the sake of this argument that Ben Simmons is a bad contract and paying him somewhere between 33 and 40 million a year for the next 4 years is too much for what he brings. What alternative way are we going to be able to spend that money and make the Minnesota Timberwolves a more legitimate threat in the West in that period of time?

We're not going to bring in anyone on the FA market on that kind of contract. Partially because we're capped and partially because if we somehow got under the cap, no elite player that's available as a FA is signing a max in Minnesota, it's not happening. Is there another max player out there with 4 years of team control we could sign? Not at the moment, and it's highly unlikely we'd have the capital to bring one in if we were met with a serious bidding war in the next few years for a player of the level of say Lillard or Beal.

The alternative option to that I guess is that you add middling, value contracts for lesser assets and look to add other players via the draft. Well, if we're going to improve our record at all in the short term(which we really need to quickly otherwise we're approaching blow-up territory) then we're going to be picking outside the lottery, and in that case it's an absolute crap shoot. We're not going to find a McDaniels every year.

I get the hesitancy over Simmons but I feel like spending 33 million on him improves us more than spending 33 million on 2 rotation guys or the glut of rotation guys we've got on the team at the moment. Now, I don't want to overpay for him via trade either; Beasley, One of Prince/Beverley, 2 firsts is basically the maximum I'm willing to offer. Perhaps the 2 firsts and Beasley go to a third team to return an asset that the 6ers really want. I could be talked into McDaniels but that should come at the cost of substantial protection on one of the picks IMO

A team which contains a core rotation of: DLo, Simmons, KAT, Edwards, McDaniels, Reid, Prince/Beverley is a very competitive team and one that's capable of making the playoffs and at least winning a series IMO. At that point, perhaps you become a viable prospect to vets on the FA market who are happy to take a minimum to join a team in contention.


First,I want to compliment you on a polite and well reasoned argument. I really appreciate the level of thought and the amount of time you spent. It may seem weird to say so, but you just don’t find this everywhere and that is why I prefer this site to the other ones I have tried.

Second, I think you are overlooking a fundamental point in the discussion. Simmons is not a FA we can simply sign, we would have to give up significant value both in draft capital and player talent to acquire him. We likely lose Beasley, Beverly and another rotation player. The extra strength to our starting lineup is debatable given that you are replacing Beasley with Simmons, but you are subtracting strength from the second unit which in my opinion is a more significant issue.

Third, the opportunity cost of losing the draft and player capital is not insignificant. For instance a good year for us and a bad year for the Suns and we might well have an opportunity to land Devin Booker. In the alternative other teams will have injury setbacks and create unexpected sellers like Orlando last season.

Finally, the FA market may heat up a bit when we start winning. We have plenty of talent now and if we stay healthy I think we are already competitive. Finch over Ryan and the emergence of Ant cannot be overestimated. We added 3 great defenders in Bolmaro, Beverly, and Prince. MCD and Nowell both took big steps in their game. Now isn’t the time for big moves which weaken the bench and limit our options.
User avatar
King Malta
Starter
Posts: 2,328
And1: 1,554
Joined: Jun 24, 2013
Location: The Lottery
         

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1932 » by King Malta » Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:37 am

winforlose wrote:
King Malta wrote:
winforlose wrote:
Yeah Seth Curry, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and the rest of the 76ers roster had nothing to do with it. It was all Simmons and the 58 games he played.

Look, I am not saying he is a bad player or that he did not contribute to his team. I am saying he is a bad fit and overpaid by about 20 million dollars given his severe limitations. Best case scenario he is a taller JO with a better handle. Worst case, he is a taller JO who gets in the way.


Overpaid by 20 million dollars :lol:

He makes 33 this season. You're telling me a guy who basically averages 16-8-8 and is one of the premier defenders in the league is worth 13 million dollars?

We all know Ben Simmons has warts, and we all know what they are. Is he overpaid? I think so, by around 5-6 million perhaps. the last year of his contract is a doozy but by then he's expiring. Regardless he's still elite in a number of different areas and has consistently been part of successful teams at Philly despite many moving parts, basically him and Embiid (who misses about 25% of every season) are the only constants that team has had over the entire period. To basically write off Ben's contributions to those teams the way some people do is crazy to me.

In terms of my personal comfort in having his contract in this team, I think people are viewing it simply in isolation without taking into account the current state of our franchise and what possible changes can be made to increase the competitiveness of this team. Let's say for the sake of this argument that Ben Simmons is a bad contract and paying him somewhere between 33 and 40 million a year for the next 4 years is too much for what he brings. What alternative way are we going to be able to spend that money and make the Minnesota Timberwolves a more legitimate threat in the West in that period of time?

We're not going to bring in anyone on the FA market on that kind of contract. Partially because we're capped and partially because if we somehow got under the cap, no elite player that's available as a FA is signing a max in Minnesota, it's not happening. Is there another max player out there with 4 years of team control we could sign? Not at the moment, and it's highly unlikely we'd have the capital to bring one in if we were met with a serious bidding war in the next few years for a player of the level of say Lillard or Beal.

The alternative option to that I guess is that you add middling, value contracts for lesser assets and look to add other players via the draft. Well, if we're going to improve our record at all in the short term(which we really need to quickly otherwise we're approaching blow-up territory) then we're going to be picking outside the lottery, and in that case it's an absolute crap shoot. We're not going to find a McDaniels every year.

I get the hesitancy over Simmons but I feel like spending 33 million on him improves us more than spending 33 million on 2 rotation guys or the glut of rotation guys we've got on the team at the moment. Now, I don't want to overpay for him via trade either; Beasley, One of Prince/Beverley, 2 firsts is basically the maximum I'm willing to offer. Perhaps the 2 firsts and Beasley go to a third team to return an asset that the 6ers really want. I could be talked into McDaniels but that should come at the cost of substantial protection on one of the picks IMO

A team which contains a core rotation of: DLo, Simmons, KAT, Edwards, McDaniels, Reid, Prince/Beverley is a very competitive team and one that's capable of making the playoffs and at least winning a series IMO. At that point, perhaps you become a viable prospect to vets on the FA market who are happy to take a minimum to join a team in contention.


First,I want to compliment you on a polite and well reasoned argument. I really appreciate the level of thought and the amount of time you spent. It may seem weird to say so, but you just don’t find this everywhere and that is why I prefer this site to the other ones I have tried.

Second, I think you are overlooking a fundamental point in the discussion. Simmons is not a FA we can simply sign, we would have to give up significant value both in draft capital and player talent to acquire him. We likely lose Beasley, Beverly and another rotation player. The extra strength to our starting lineup is debatable given that you are replacing Beasley with Simmons, but you are subtracting strength from the second unit which in my opinion is a more significant issue.

Third, the opportunity cost of losing the draft and player capital is not insignificant. For instance a good year for us and a bad year for the Suns and we might well have an opportunity to land Devin Booker. In the alternative other teams will have injury setbacks and create unexpected sellers like Orlando last season.

Finally, the FA market may heat up a bit when we start winning. We have plenty of talent now and if we stay healthy I think we are already competitive. Finch over Ryan and the emergence of Ant cannot be overestimated. We added 3 great defenders in Bolmaro, Beverly, and Prince. MCD and Nowell both took big steps in their game. Now isn’t the time for big moves which weaken the bench and limit our options.


I too appreciate your reasonable response, thank you :)

Oh no, I understand we need to give value to get him, but I feel like we'd be getting more back from Ben Simmons than we'd be losing if we gave up Beasley, Beverly and possibly a rotation player as suggested. I think Simmons is a demonstrably better player than Beasley....and to be honest I believe he's contributed more to winning in his career than any other player on this roster, outside of DLo's one season on the Nets at a stretch perhaps.

I agree that it's insignificant, but the chance of landing a Devin Booker is incredibly small, and to rest our entire chances of sustainable competitive on that potential outcome is not a sound risk to take IMO. Whilst Simmons has flaws, he's a known quantity and a known contributor to good teams, as he's done at the 6ers. A draft pick which could fall anywhere from 1-30(lol) is an unknown quantity and a huge risk to rely upon when we've gone so long without success.

The Free Agency could heat up and that's an argument that I wholeheartedly agree with. Where I'd say we differ there is that I don't think we'll ever be in a position where max level guys will consider coming here in Free Agency. There's a glass ceiling across the league when it comes to teams outside of the biggest markets in that regard IMO. However, if we improve and become competitive (which I believe Simmons contributes to greatly), I believe you will see guys like Millsap, Crowder, Beverley, Ariza etc consider Minnesota as a destination on a smaller contract given an increased competitiveness and attractive roster.

Ultimately, I think that for the 33 million you pay Ben, it's harder to find a more certain improvement if that money is spent elsewhere (including existing assets), and given our miserable track record and current perception as a bit of a joke franchise, I believe that improvement is required soon.
winforlose
RealGM
Posts: 13,457
And1: 5,981
Joined: Feb 27, 2020

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1933 » by winforlose » Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:56 am

King Malta wrote:
winforlose wrote:
King Malta wrote:
Overpaid by 20 million dollars :lol:

He makes 33 this season. You're telling me a guy who basically averages 16-8-8 and is one of the premier defenders in the league is worth 13 million dollars?

We all know Ben Simmons has warts, and we all know what they are. Is he overpaid? I think so, by around 5-6 million perhaps. the last year of his contract is a doozy but by then he's expiring. Regardless he's still elite in a number of different areas and has consistently been part of successful teams at Philly despite many moving parts, basically him and Embiid (who misses about 25% of every season) are the only constants that team has had over the entire period. To basically write off Ben's contributions to those teams the way some people do is crazy to me.

In terms of my personal comfort in having his contract in this team, I think people are viewing it simply in isolation without taking into account the current state of our franchise and what possible changes can be made to increase the competitiveness of this team. Let's say for the sake of this argument that Ben Simmons is a bad contract and paying him somewhere between 33 and 40 million a year for the next 4 years is too much for what he brings. What alternative way are we going to be able to spend that money and make the Minnesota Timberwolves a more legitimate threat in the West in that period of time?

We're not going to bring in anyone on the FA market on that kind of contract. Partially because we're capped and partially because if we somehow got under the cap, no elite player that's available as a FA is signing a max in Minnesota, it's not happening. Is there another max player out there with 4 years of team control we could sign? Not at the moment, and it's highly unlikely we'd have the capital to bring one in if we were met with a serious bidding war in the next few years for a player of the level of say Lillard or Beal.

The alternative option to that I guess is that you add middling, value contracts for lesser assets and look to add other players via the draft. Well, if we're going to improve our record at all in the short term(which we really need to quickly otherwise we're approaching blow-up territory) then we're going to be picking outside the lottery, and in that case it's an absolute crap shoot. We're not going to find a McDaniels every year.

I get the hesitancy over Simmons but I feel like spending 33 million on him improves us more than spending 33 million on 2 rotation guys or the glut of rotation guys we've got on the team at the moment. Now, I don't want to overpay for him via trade either; Beasley, One of Prince/Beverley, 2 firsts is basically the maximum I'm willing to offer. Perhaps the 2 firsts and Beasley go to a third team to return an asset that the 6ers really want. I could be talked into McDaniels but that should come at the cost of substantial protection on one of the picks IMO

A team which contains a core rotation of: DLo, Simmons, KAT, Edwards, McDaniels, Reid, Prince/Beverley is a very competitive team and one that's capable of making the playoffs and at least winning a series IMO. At that point, perhaps you become a viable prospect to vets on the FA market who are happy to take a minimum to join a team in contention.


First,I want to compliment you on a polite and well reasoned argument. I really appreciate the level of thought and the amount of time you spent. It may seem weird to say so, but you just don’t find this everywhere and that is why I prefer this site to the other ones I have tried.

Second, I think you are overlooking a fundamental point in the discussion. Simmons is not a FA we can simply sign, we would have to give up significant value both in draft capital and player talent to acquire him. We likely lose Beasley, Beverly and another rotation player. The extra strength to our starting lineup is debatable given that you are replacing Beasley with Simmons, but you are subtracting strength from the second unit which in my opinion is a more significant issue.

Third, the opportunity cost of losing the draft and player capital is not insignificant. For instance a good year for us and a bad year for the Suns and we might well have an opportunity to land Devin Booker. In the alternative other teams will have injury setbacks and create unexpected sellers like Orlando last season.

Finally, the FA market may heat up a bit when we start winning. We have plenty of talent now and if we stay healthy I think we are already competitive. Finch over Ryan and the emergence of Ant cannot be overestimated. We added 3 great defenders in Bolmaro, Beverly, and Prince. MCD and Nowell both took big steps in their game. Now isn’t the time for big moves which weaken the bench and limit our options.


I too appreciate your reasonable response, thank you :)

Oh no, I understand we need to give value to get him, but I feel like we'd be getting more back from Ben Simmons than we'd be losing if we gave up Beasley, Beverly and possibly a rotation player as suggested. I think Simmons is a demonstrably better player than Beasley....and to be honest I believe he's contributed more to winning in his career than any other player on this roster, outside of DLo's one season on the Nets at a stretch perhaps.

I agree that it's insignificant, but the chance of landing a Devin Booker is incredibly small, and to rest our entire chances of sustainable competitive on that potential outcome is not a sound risk to take IMO. Whilst Simmons has flaws, he's a known quantity and a known contributor to good teams, as he's done at the 6ers. A draft pick which could fall anywhere from 1-30(lol) is an unknown quantity and a huge risk to rely upon when we've gone so long without success.

The Free Agency could heat up and that's an argument that I wholeheartedly agree with. Where I'd say we differ there is that I don't think we'll ever be in a position where max level guys will consider coming here in Free Agency. There's a glass ceiling across the league when it comes to teams outside of the biggest markets in that regard IMO. However, if we improve and become competitive (which I believe Simmons contributes to greatly), I believe you will see guys like Millsap, Crowder, Beverley, Ariza etc consider Minnesota as a destination on a smaller contract given an increased competitiveness and attractive roster.

Ultimately, I think that for the 33 million you pay Ben, it's harder to find a more certain improvement if that money is spent elsewhere, and given our miserable track record and current perception as a bit of a joke franchise, I believe that improvement is required soon.


Focusing on your point about Simmons replacing three rotation players, who do we fill in the gaps with? Assume you lose Prince as your third, now you are stuck with Vando and Layman as your only backup 4s. You can sign a Frank N or DSJ to replace Bev, but neither will be as good, and JMAC is clearly not up for it. Not only does the bench suffer immediately, but depth becomes an issue as all teams deal with some level of injuries throughout the season. We also have the issue of whether Taylor would go into the tax and stay there to build a contender.

I actually think Simmons would compromise our offense far more than help our defense. The big advantage is that with MCD Simmons and KAT on the floor we have size. However, with Simmons on the floor we are easier to guard as you can park your big down low and cheat off of Simmons onto KAT. With 5 shooters Finch can do things he simply cannot with four. This is the whole Ricky Rubio argument only made worse by the fact that Simmons makes Rubio look like Curry. Add to that Simmons recent injury issues and I am concerned that when he misses games our already thin bench will get thinner.

All else being equal, Simmons cost will drop as the season progresses. He doesn’t want to be in Philly and they don’t want him there. A team could over pay for him, but the fact that they have not yet is a good sign. If we do make a move for him it should be later. However, I will once again point out that we would be giving up FA flexibility and the ability to draft replacements if we take on a max contract and trade draft capital. You mention that a player 1-30 can be hit or miss, but that is the best way for teams that cannot attract free agents to get better. Case in point, MCD, Nowell, and hopefully Bolarmo (assuming he isn’t a bust.)
Tomjas
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,878
And1: 3,174
Joined: Nov 04, 2017

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1934 » by Tomjas » Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:24 am

Sixers fan here

Sorry but some of you guys have no idea

Simmons/KAT/Ant/D’lo gets you to playoffs year 1 health permitting

And that’s coming off a 23 win season

He’s that good

You will be frustrated (as we are) BUT the guy wins nba games

Problem is that you guys have nobody that the Sixers want outside of KAT and Ant so deal will be complicated
User avatar
King Malta
Starter
Posts: 2,328
And1: 1,554
Joined: Jun 24, 2013
Location: The Lottery
         

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1935 » by King Malta » Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:24 am

winforlose wrote:
King Malta wrote:
winforlose wrote:
First,I want to compliment you on a polite and well reasoned argument. I really appreciate the level of thought and the amount of time you spent. It may seem weird to say so, but you just don’t find this everywhere and that is why I prefer this site to the other ones I have tried.

Second, I think you are overlooking a fundamental point in the discussion. Simmons is not a FA we can simply sign, we would have to give up significant value both in draft capital and player talent to acquire him. We likely lose Beasley, Beverly and another rotation player. The extra strength to our starting lineup is debatable given that you are replacing Beasley with Simmons, but you are subtracting strength from the second unit which in my opinion is a more significant issue.

Third, the opportunity cost of losing the draft and player capital is not insignificant. For instance a good year for us and a bad year for the Suns and we might well have an opportunity to land Devin Booker. In the alternative other teams will have injury setbacks and create unexpected sellers like Orlando last season.

Finally, the FA market may heat up a bit when we start winning. We have plenty of talent now and if we stay healthy I think we are already competitive. Finch over Ryan and the emergence of Ant cannot be overestimated. We added 3 great defenders in Bolmaro, Beverly, and Prince. MCD and Nowell both took big steps in their game. Now isn’t the time for big moves which weaken the bench and limit our options.


I too appreciate your reasonable response, thank you :)

Oh no, I understand we need to give value to get him, but I feel like we'd be getting more back from Ben Simmons than we'd be losing if we gave up Beasley, Beverly and possibly a rotation player as suggested. I think Simmons is a demonstrably better player than Beasley....and to be honest I believe he's contributed more to winning in his career than any other player on this roster, outside of DLo's one season on the Nets at a stretch perhaps.

I agree that it's insignificant, but the chance of landing a Devin Booker is incredibly small, and to rest our entire chances of sustainable competitive on that potential outcome is not a sound risk to take IMO. Whilst Simmons has flaws, he's a known quantity and a known contributor to good teams, as he's done at the 6ers. A draft pick which could fall anywhere from 1-30(lol) is an unknown quantity and a huge risk to rely upon when we've gone so long without success.

The Free Agency could heat up and that's an argument that I wholeheartedly agree with. Where I'd say we differ there is that I don't think we'll ever be in a position where max level guys will consider coming here in Free Agency. There's a glass ceiling across the league when it comes to teams outside of the biggest markets in that regard IMO. However, if we improve and become competitive (which I believe Simmons contributes to greatly), I believe you will see guys like Millsap, Crowder, Beverley, Ariza etc consider Minnesota as a destination on a smaller contract given an increased competitiveness and attractive roster.

Ultimately, I think that for the 33 million you pay Ben, it's harder to find a more certain improvement if that money is spent elsewhere, and given our miserable track record and current perception as a bit of a joke franchise, I believe that improvement is required soon.


Focusing on your point about Simmons replacing three rotation players, who do we fill in the gaps with? Assume you lose Prince as your third, now you are stuck with Vando and Layman as your only backup 4s. You can sign a Frank N or DSJ to replace Bev, but neither will be as good, and JMAC is clearly not up for it. Not only does the bench suffer immediately, but depth becomes an issue as all teams deal with some level of injuries throughout the season. We also have the issue of whether Taylor would go into the tax and stay there to build a contender.

I actually think Simmons would compromise our offense far more than help our defense. The big advantage is that with MCD Simmons and KAT on the floor we have size. However, with Simmons on the floor we are easier to guard as you can park your big down low and cheat off of Simmons onto KAT. With 5 shooters Finch can do things he simply cannot with four. This is the whole Ricky Rubio argument only made worse by the fact that Simmons makes Rubio look like Curry. Add to that Simmons recent injury issues and I am concerned that when he misses games our already thin bench will get thinner.

All else being equal, Simmons cost will drop as the season progresses. He doesn’t want to be in Philly and they don’t want him there. A team could over pay for him, but the fact that they have not yet is a good sign. If we do make a move for him it should be later. However, I will once again point out that we would be giving up FA flexibility and the ability to draft replacements if we take on a max contract and trade draft capital. You mention that a player 1-30 can be hit or miss, but that is the best way for teams that cannot attract free agents to get better. Case in point, MCD, Nowell, and hopefully Bolarmo (assuming he isn’t a bust.)


I personally think you're attributing too much value to Prince to be honest. I also don't think he's a good option at the 4 spot at all, and we shouldn't use him there if we keep him IMO. Prince is a good spot-up shooter who's a solid to below average defender on the wing, ultimately I don't think we should put off on bringing in players who are substantially better because we lose a guy like that. Vanderbilt is a better back-up for Simmons than Prince anyway a the 4 IMO, and stylistically probably an easier transition between line-ups.

We're easier to guard with Simmons in the team? I don't think that's true at all tbh, and I do feel like that's where the real gap is between some people in this debate. Simmons is not a hack rotation guy, he's still a legitimate offensive threat despite his lack of shooting, and he could often be rolled out as the only non-shooter on the floor, especially given the other advantages he brings. Ben is also capable of beating up quite a few 4 guys in this league in the post, more-so than anyone else on this team outside of KAT. He's co-existed to great success with another premier big man who's less of a reliable shooter than KAT is, I don't see a major issue there at all.

We'd have a thinner bench but a better starting 5, easily. DLo, Year 2 Edwards, Year 2 McDaniels, Simmons, KAT is worlds better than what we trotted out last season and simply removing Prince and Beasley doesn't make the team weaker.

His value might decline, or perhaps he comes out and plays incredibly well in an effort to prove himself and a team like Portland or Washington start off poorly and decide to move Beal/Lillard, if either of those two become available our chances of landing Ben just about become impossible. I'm pretty comfortable saying that any player we pick in the draft in the next 2-3 years (unless we're terrible this year and flog KAT for assets) will not contribute to winning at a level anywhere near Ben Simmons in that period of time. And drafting is not guaranteed to be the best way, as bringing in players via trade is just as feasible way to improve, and often less of a gamble due to the fact most high-level players you target via trade have actually played NBA basketball.

Nowell is ok but but nowhere near worth the level of a player I'm worried about losing if it nets Simmons, Bolmaro is a total unknown. I like McDaniels and his potential but don't buy into the guaranteed star level outcome that some people attach to him. Simmons would be the second best player on this roster if we traded for him, and a bigger contributor than any of those guys.
User avatar
King Malta
Starter
Posts: 2,328
And1: 1,554
Joined: Jun 24, 2013
Location: The Lottery
         

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1936 » by King Malta » Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:25 am

Tomjas wrote:Sixers fan here

Sorry but some of you guys have no idea

Simmons/KAT/Ant/D’lo gets you to playoffs year 1 health permitting

And that’s coming off a 23 win season

He’s that good

You will be frustrated (as we are) BUT the guy wins nba games

Problem is that you guys have nobody that the Sixers want outside of KAT and Ant so deal will be complicated


I think we'd almost definitely need to get a third team involved to acquire an on-court asset that you guys would want.
Tomjas
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,878
And1: 3,174
Joined: Nov 04, 2017

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1937 » by Tomjas » Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:45 am

King Malta wrote:
Tomjas wrote:Sixers fan here

Sorry but some of you guys have no idea

Simmons/KAT/Ant/D’lo gets you to playoffs year 1 health permitting

And that’s coming off a 23 win season

He’s that good

You will be frustrated (as we are) BUT the guy wins nba games

Problem is that you guys have nobody that the Sixers want outside of KAT and Ant so deal will be complicated


I think we'd almost definitely need to get a third team involved to acquire an on-court asset that you guys would want.


Absolutely

Added complications are the friendship of KAT/D’lo/Ben and Klutch with Ben & Ant

There’s ZERO chance of Klutch sending either of them to Siberia and Twolves would be insane to trade Ant anyway
winforlose
RealGM
Posts: 13,457
And1: 5,981
Joined: Feb 27, 2020

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1938 » by winforlose » Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:50 am

King Malta wrote:
Tomjas wrote:Sixers fan here

Sorry but some of you guys have no idea

Simmons/KAT/Ant/D’lo gets you to playoffs year 1 health permitting

And that’s coming off a 23 win season

He’s that good

You will be frustrated (as we are) BUT the guy wins nba games

Problem is that you guys have nobody that the Sixers want outside of KAT and Ant so deal will be complicated


I think we'd almost definitely need to get a third team involved to acquire an on-court asset that you guys would want.


Just gonna throw this out there, (please note that we’re not so late and I was not half asleep I would do this correctly and post shooting percentages to back up my claim,) Dlo, Beasley, MCD, KAT, Beverly, Nowell, Prince, and Reid are all league average or better at 3 point shooting. In most cases much better. Ant was improving from deep and the next big step in his development will be consistently hitting at average or better this season. Bolarmo is a variable at this point but I think it is safe to say he will be below average as he adjusts to the pace and schedule of the NBA. He may improve over time but some difficulty is to be expected. That means that between 8-9 of our 10 rotation players are consistent 3 point shooters. Okogie and Vando are the odd men out but that is why they will likely be 3rd string. This is not a coincidence, this is a careful design. Giving away 3 shooters and getting back one non shooter would do serious harm unless you can secure two more shooters to replace those who are outgoing. We will have 11 guys on the roster, as much or more salary, and still need to sign Vando and JMAC. How do you rebuild the roster after the Simmons trade? Also, is a dominant starting five enough to win a title if you little depth and a bench that simply cannot compete?
minimus
RealGM
Posts: 13,807
And1: 5,298
Joined: Jan 28, 2011
Location: Germany, Stuttgart area
 

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1939 » by minimus » Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:55 am

shrink wrote:
Baseline81 wrote:Jon Krawczynski joined Dan Barreiro earlier today:
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/139-the-dan-barreiro-show-26981004/

Latest on Simmons:
- He knows, for a fact, the Wolves continue to try and engage on Simmons -- have not given up as the team believes he would be a great fit.
- Doesn't think there's a huge market out there for him. Teams, at this point, want to start the season and see what they have.
- 76ers asking for the moon and stars, holding out in hopes Lillard pushes the ejection seat to force the Blazers to the table.
- Indications are Simmons is not enamored coming to training camp and starting season with Philly.
- Anticipates asking price could drop over next couple of weeks. Wolves would still need to find a third team to give 76ers the win-now package.
- Feels Beverley may be an asset to be used in Simmons deal. Easier to sell than the likes of Culver and Hernangomez.


I also wanted to remind people just how hard it is to build a team around Simmons extreme limitations. I’m not saying he isn’t good at what he does do, but as the Sixers know, he doesn’t fit with a lot of teams. Most teams don’t have the right mix, and those that were close lost the time it takes during the summer to get the right pieces around him. I think Morey made a mistake by asking for the moon and delaying a trade, because it cost him buyers - they needed to get on with their summer and build their rosters without Simmons.

Again, I disagree with people who say he is a “perfect fit” here. He minimizes Towns advantage of forcing a big to defend both our bigs outside, and by packing Simmons defender lower, they clog the lane, hurting Edwards too. I’d also remind people MIN was 25th in 3P% last season. I have never believed PHI can just bring Simmons back, but there aren’t many teams who would trade for him now either. I hope MIN passes on him.


In this case we should build around Simmons strenghts, not weaknesses. He has an unique skillset which can be blessing or problem. For instance, UTA built roster around Gobert. That is not "five-out", that is "four out". Gobert is an excellent roll man, he offers this roll man gravity that we currently dont have. I always say that stretching towards the rim is such an underrated skill, because it compliments stretch the floor concept. For instance, UTA was 1st in 3PA and 4th in 38.9%. Even with Gobert limitations as scorer (no post game, not great at catching the ball and finishing in traffic with advanced moves) Gobert is an integral part of offense.

UTA problem was that Gobert cant defend in space. I knew that Simmons can defend top ballhandlers on perimeter, but I have recently seen Simmons video, where he (240lbs) defends way more bigger players such as Jusuf Nurkic (280lbs) in post. If Simmons can really defend 1 through 5 position it makes him really an ideal defensive fit here in MIN.
Tomjas
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,878
And1: 3,174
Joined: Nov 04, 2017

Re: Trade Talk (Part Seven) 

Post#1940 » by Tomjas » Fri Aug 20, 2021 10:02 am

winforlose wrote:
King Malta wrote:
Tomjas wrote:Sixers fan here

Sorry but some of you guys have no idea

Simmons/KAT/Ant/D’lo gets you to playoffs year 1 health permitting

And that’s coming off a 23 win season

He’s that good

You will be frustrated (as we are) BUT the guy wins nba games

Problem is that you guys have nobody that the Sixers want outside of KAT and Ant so deal will be complicated


I think we'd almost definitely need to get a third team involved to acquire an on-court asset that you guys would want.


Just gonna throw this out there, (please note that we’re not so late and I was not half asleep I would do this correctly and post shooting percentages to back up my claim,) Dlo, Beasley, MCD, KAT, Beverly, Nowell, Prince, and Reid are all league average or better at 3 point shooting. In most cases much better. Ant was improving from deep and the next big step in his development will be consistently hitting at average or better this season. Bolarmo is a variable at this point but I think it is safe to say he will be below average as he adjusts to the pace and schedule of the NBA. He may improve over time but some difficulty is to be expected. That means that between 8-9 of our 10 rotation players are consistent 3 point shooters. Okogie and Vando are the odd men out but that is why they will likely be 3rd string. This is not a coincidence, this is a careful design. Giving away 3 shooters and getting back one non shooter would do serious harm unless you can secure two more shooters to replace those who are outgoing. We will have 11 guys on the roster, as much or more salary, and still need to sign Vando and JMAC. How do you rebuild the roster after the Simmons trade? Also, is a dominant starting five enough to win a title if you little depth and a bench that simply cannot compete?


The Utah Jazz finished with the best RS record by spamming more 3s than any other team and then were dumped from the playoffs with their $40 million defensive anchor being forced to sit as they couldn’t defend a chair on the perimeter

Simmons creates far more open 3s than any nba player and is by far the best perimeter defender

You want to improve massively overnight?

Get Simmons

Return to Minnesota Timberwolves