Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday

doclinkin · Post #141 » by **doclinkin** » Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:29 pm

For the purposes of THIS thread the only thing that matters is whether Aaron Holiday and Isaiah Todd turn out to be damn good. Nothing else matters :clown:

payitforward · Post #142 » by **payitforward** » Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:33 pm

Totally correct! & let's hope they both do.

payitforward · Post #143 » by **payitforward** » Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:36 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:coulda shoulda woulda...

...There were all kinds of ways to get Weiskamp and 1 of those PG's with the 15th pick - especially since Cooper was my favorite of the 3 PG's.

Edit: I accidentally left off Jared Butler (40) from the list of PG's available, so there were 4.

Agree w/ this too....

Kanyewest · Post #144 » by **Kanyewest** » Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:58 pm

doclinkin wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:Doc. I have to disagree. Look at the assets and where they came from. LAL didn’t send anything the BKN. Or SAS.
This was a series of trades that we combined for compliance purposes.

By incorporating the holiday trade into the LAL Russ trade, our potential TPE (or in our case, the additional salary we could take back) decreased by 4M as we sent out no additional salary. Doing this then made it non compliant to take on Dinwiddie outright.
That is why we then followed up with the Hutch salary dump (same salary as Holiday).

Meaning. If we bypassed the holiday trade and instead traded 22 for 2 early seconds, then we wouldn’t have had to dump Hutch and give up the Detroit 2nd.

Plain and simple. It was a poor trade. We elected pick 31 & Holiday over pick 34, 36, and the Detroit 2nd.

Unless you are a top 4 seed or a team flush with picks (OKC), there is no excuse to make this trade.
Even if holiday outperforms his career to date. He is a FA next summer and then we are right back to where we were. No legit backup to Dinwiddie.

You skip over the reasoning for the Holiday trade: that it reduces the leverage of Brooklyn in what they can demand for Dinwiddie, and gives us a plausible vet PG with upside to stick next to Beal. You may deem him as worthless, but it matters less what you think than what Bradley Beal thinks. Bradley Beal could give a rip about a future 2nd rounder some time in the life of his career. We on these boards fixate on such things.

The Knicks and Bulls had expressed interest in Dinwiddie. It was never a done deal. The mandate Tommy has been given has been: put a plausible winner around Beal that fits his career arc. Beal has played with rookies. They take a while to season. Loading up on rooks, especially at floor general, is not the timeline of the team that Tommy has been tasked to build. Aaron Holiday does fit that timeline. Remains to be seen if Tommy's scouting on Holiday is better than, I dunno, yours --or history I suppose-- but again, the person whose opinion matters most is Beal. And picking up Holiday first means that we appeared less needy to Sean Marks and crew and could hold firm on not taking back added salary or sending them the First round picks they were asking for. And since the Holiday deal was looped into the trades, picks had to be made that served both Indiana and LA at 22 and 31.

Would I personally have preferred to take extra picks or make a selection at 22 and not trade down? Yes. But I have powerful valence on Beal in 2 directions: he's a good guy, and has gotten better every year of his career, but have serious doubts he will be truly worth the contract it would take to sign him. Still, once he is on that contract, he will have value still and should be a useful asset inked and under our control. Health allowing. BUT. I am going to be a long term fan of the team well past Beal's career I expect. And as a draft-head I love the potential in clever picks etc. I personally don't have to care about what Beal thinks or especially, what Ted thinks. Tommy does. I am simply saying I see what he was working with, and under those instructions he did a remarkable job.

Still, one slight problem with the Pacers trade is that perhaps Shepherd didn't use the leverage that Indiana needed to offload salary to avoid luxury tax payments. What I'm seeing is that the Pacers current payroll is 135.8 million and the luxury tax threshold is 136.6 million. For the Pacers it was a very good trade and I think the Wizards could have had the deal if the Pacers were willing to throw in another 2nd rounder in a future draft (which the Wizards could have used to offload Hutchinson's salary).

Also, the Wizards leverage would have been potentially reduced if they had decided to just do a trade down from 22 for multiple 2nd rounders and take one of the point guards that were presented their as a potential option. And they wouldn't have had to attach an extra pick to trade. And of course there were still options like Schroeder (or even Kemba if the Knicks eventually decided to sign Dinwiddie as you suggested).

That being said, I do think Aaron Holiday could be a positive asset and I'm interested to see how the Todd pick turns out.

doclinkin · Post #145 » by **doclinkin** » Mon Aug 23, 2021 5:18 pm

Kanyewest wrote:Still, one slight problem with the Pacers trade is that perhaps Shepherd didn't use the leverage that Indiana needed to offload salary to avoid luxury tax payments.

Smart point. What we got instead was "cash considerations". We used to get that all the time under Ernie. Maybe that helps Tommy's operations budget, but to fans it means nothing.

payitforward · Post #146 » by **payitforward** » Tue Aug 24, 2021 1:00 am

These are the kinds of things you can't know. Maybe there was another team with some interest in Holiday. Maybe... who knows what?

Essentially, you can think of the trade as valuing Aaron Holiday at the level of about a #29 pick. I.e. #29 & #31 are a reasonable ballpark exchange for #22.

leswizards · Post #147 » by **leswizards** » Fri Oct 29, 2021 12:30 pm

Aaron Holiday has a ws/48 of 0.025, which is not good. However, I check every box scores advanced statistics, and compare every Wizards ortg vs their drtg, figuring that if their ortg is greater than their drtg they probably had a good game. By my non scientific method, Aaron Holiday has had 1 awful game, 1 very good game, and 3 passable games. If he keeps this up, those who hated this trade, may have to re-evaluate their opinion.

Kanyewest · Post #148 » by **Kanyewest** » Fri Oct 29, 2021 5:39 pm

Wizards are 2-0 when Holiday starts- 1 with Dinwiddie out against the Hawks and 1 with Beal out against the Pacers. He may have had his best game in a blow out loss against the Nets. He's shooting 66 percent from 3 in his last 3 games bringing his season average up 46% from deep. His assist to turnover ratio is pretty dismal (1.8 to 1.6) although he did have 4 assists and 0 turnovers in his last outing.

J-Ves · Post #149 » by **J-Ves** » Fri Oct 29, 2021 5:53 pm

Possibility another gem found by Tommy

NatP4 · Post #150 » by **NatP4** » Fri Oct 29, 2021 6:03 pm

I mean, he’s a solid 3rd PG, or 9/10th man. I don’t see much more than that.

payitforward · Post #151 » by **payitforward** » Fri Oct 29, 2021 9:56 pm

J-Ves wrote:Possibility another gem found by Tommy

NatP4 wrote:I mean, he’s a solid 3rd PG, or 9/10th man. I don’t see much more than that.

That's about right.

He's shooting the 3 great so far this year. & he makes free throws too. But, he shoots two-pointers badly enough that he's a below average scorer -- & that's on quite low usage.

Below average on pretty much everything else as well. Being a good defender makes up for some of it....

payitforward · Post #152 » by **payitforward** » Tue Nov 16, 2021 7:45 pm

After 13 games & 237 minutes, Aaron Holiday is having his best NBA season so far. Not "good" in the absolute sense (i.e. above the middle point) but his best so far all the same.

dckingsfan · Post #153 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Nov 16, 2021 8:55 pm

I like Holiday as our 3rd PG.

I don't like when Holiday & Neto or Holiday & Dinwiddie are on the court together.

payitforward · Post #154 » by **payitforward** » Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:31 pm

Can't fail to mention that we gave the #22 pick in the 2021 draft for Aaron Holiday & an extremely raw prospect in Isaiah Todd -- & that a few months later we've now traded Holiday to the Suns for cash considerations.

No one can call this a success.

WallToWall · Post #155 » by **WallToWall** » Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:41 pm

payitforward wrote:Can't fail to mention that we gave the #22 pick in the 2021 draft for Aaron Holiday & an extremely raw prospect in Isaiah Todd -- & that a few months later we've now traded Holiday to the Suns for cash considerations.
No one can call this a success.

Definitely not a success when you turn the #22 pick into cash and Isaiah Todd.
One thing that is taking shape is that Shepard is not a good college basketball talent evaluator. He needs to augment his staff with folks who are.

Post #156 » by **nate33** » Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:46 pm

payitforward wrote:Can't fail to mention that we gave the #22 pick in the 2021 draft for Aaron Holiday & an extremely raw prospect in Isaiah Todd -- & that a few months later we've now traded Holiday to the Suns for cash considerations.

No one can call this a success.

We also have that TPE which should be worth a 2nd round pick at the trade deadline next year.

gambitx777 · Post #157 » by **gambitx777** » Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:13 am

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:Can't fail to mention that we gave the #22 pick in the 2021 draft for Aaron Holiday & an extremely raw prospect in Isaiah Todd -- & that a few months later we've now traded Holiday to the Suns for cash considerations.

No one can call this a success.

We also have that TPE which should be worth a 2nd round pick at the trade deadline next year.

Or over the summer at the draft! I'm a bit annoyed we couldn't get Smith..... I really wanted that guy.

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payitforward · Post #158 » by **payitforward** » Mon Feb 14, 2022 1:19 pm

WallToWall wrote:
payitforward wrote:Can't fail to mention that we gave the #22 pick in the 2021 draft for Aaron Holiday & an extremely raw prospect in Isaiah Todd -- & that a few months later we've now traded Holiday to the Suns for cash considerations.
No one can call this a success.

Definitely not a success when you turn the #22 pick into cash and Isaiah Todd.
One thing that is taking shape is that Shepard is not a good college basketball talent evaluator. He needs to augment his staff with folks who are.

Returning to this for a minute....

I don't think it's exactly that he's "not a good college basketball talent evaluator." He's known to go see a lot of players, but still... he's only one person. We have a staff of scouts.

I continue to think that Rui was picked as much for the market he brought as for anything else. Deni wasn't a college player. & Kispert looks like a quality pick.

Admiral wasn't worth picking, but the 2019 R2 didn't yield much after Gafford. & we did find Garrison Mathews undrafted. & Winston deserved to be picked where he was.

I'd say the draft management is more about decisions like this one -- to trade the #22 pick for a guy who sucks -- than for the picks themselves (leaving out the Rui pick as a special case).

TGW · Post #159 » by **TGW** » Mon Feb 14, 2022 1:23 pm

J-Ves wrote:Possibility another gem found by Tommy

Some of you guys really do be drinking the kool-aid man.

payitforward · Post #160 » by **payitforward** » Mon Feb 14, 2022 4:49 pm

TGW wrote:
J-Ves wrote:Possibility another gem found by Tommy

Some of you guys really do be drinking the kool-aid man.

Without a doubt, the Holiday trade was absolutely awful. One of the worst moves by anyone in the league in the last year or so.

You could not be more correct about that!

But, why are you quoting a post made last October? & -- right though you are about our having traded the #22 for Holiday & the #31 -- why don't we know what you'd have done with that #22 pick. Or even with the #31 pick, given the trade?

For that matter, why don't we know whom you'd have picked in R1 in 2019? Or in 2020? Or what you'd have done in R2 in '20?

& why aren't you posting in the thread about Deni's development? Why aren't you posting about Kispert?