2021 Offseason & Offseason Grades

[nate33]

Yes, good point.

It also may turn out that these three drafts yield three good players. Years ago, a GM said that if you have three straight good drafts you can become a good team. It’s hard to do.

Good drafts; not great. Great x 3 would be tremendous — that’s an even harder thing to pull off. But just good. Not that they were the best pick for that slot — but again: good; a player who is good, and/or whom other teams would be glad to have. And for three consecutive years. I think it’s entirely possible that Tommy Shepp has done that.

Think about it: when was the last time in the history of this franchise that we drafted well three years in a row? Have we ever? Masai did it not long ago with Toronto — Anunoby in 2017, Siakam and Poetl in 2016, Delon Wright in 2015.

To be fair, I'm not sure if we have any good players, much less 3.

I'm cautiously optimistic that Hachimura will pan out to be a reliable starter, good enough to be the 4th best player on an average team. That's okay with the #9 pick, but not particularly great. And there's still a chance that he never gets efficient enough on offense or rebounds well enough on defense to be better than a rotation player (6th/7th man) on a good team.

We really don't have any idea how good Avdija or Kispert will pan out.

[payitforward]

That sounds about right. But, to me at least, "drafting Kispert" doesn't describe the problem rightly.

It's that for now the 3d year in a row, Tommy has managed the draft in an unimaginative & (to my way of thinking) excessively conservative way. YMMV, but for me it's one of the 2 big worries in his record so far (the other one being that he failed to take a R1 pick for Bertans & then re-signed him for way more than he's worth).

I dunno about that characterization.

I do agree that Kispert was unimaginative and excessively conservative, and perhaps Hachimura was too. But I'd argue that Avdija was actually a pretty aggressive, high-upside pick. He went with the young guy with innate instincts, even though he lacked the polish to be all that helpful immediately, and didn't play a position of need. Indeed, I was hoping Sheppard would go with the lower upside, shorter, older prospect who fit a need (Haliburton).

I'm not saying Avdija was a good pick. I'm just saying that he doesn't really fit your description that Sheppard is consistently unimaginative and conservative.

i.e. in drafting.... He's clearly neither of those things in his other moves!

That's a fair comment.

In a way it'd be equally fair to add that however one ranked Rui Hachimura as a prospect in 2019, he certainly brought one important benefit no other possible pick would have added -- namely, a whole new market! As a basketball fan, I don't want something like that influencing a pick, but if I were running Monumental it sure would! I.e. Ted might have had a role in our drafting Rui.

& you may be right in seeing Deni as a "bigger bet" kind of pick. &, in fairness, I could not have passed on him at #9 in 2020. So... may'be I'm seeing something that isn't there.

OTOH, one could look at R2 this year & last as well. Above all our not moving to get Tillman but also doing nothing to acquire another pick in what was obviously a rich R2 this year.

As well, I am viewing Tommy's draft against a backdrop of what other teams did in these 3 drafts -- Memphis, Boston, Philly, the Knicks....

[payitforward]

...It also may turn out that these three drafts yield three good players. Years ago, a GM said that if you have three straight good drafts you can become a good team. It’s hard to do.

Good drafts; not great. Great x 3 would be tremendous — that’s an even harder thing to pull off. But just good. Not that they were the best pick for that slot — but again: good; a player who is good, and/or whom other teams would be glad to have. And for three consecutive years. I think it’s entirely possible that Tommy Shepp has done that.

Think about it: when was the last time in the history of this franchise that we drafted well three years in a row? Have we ever? Masai did it not long ago with Toronto — Anunoby in 2017, Siakam and Poetl in 2016, Delon Wright in 2015.

You start with "it... may turn out," & your next step (comparing to Toronto) assumes that it has!

There's no evidence that we've drafted well -- even once! -- in any year since 2012. When one of Rui, Deni or Corey becomes a good player ("not great..."), you can point to his draft as evidence. Hasn't happened yet for either Rui or Deni, that's for sure!

Moreover, it's not years in a row that matter, it's number of actually good players -- overall & for that particular draft/pick position. I'd be happy to name several teams that have had single drafts, or 2 in a row, that got them the requisite 3 good players you describe as coming in 3 in a row good drafts.

To take an obvious example, after drafting Morant #2 in 2019, Memphis went on to take Clarke. Then in 2020, coming in to the draft with no picks, they walked away with Desmond Bane & Xavier Tillman. This year once again, they were dealing all draft along.

I'm not trying to make a megillah out of this (probably only badinage will get that reference). I'm a big supporter of Tommy Sheppard; I think overall he's done kind of an amazing job in refactoring this franchise -- especially dealing with "the worst contract in the league" as people used to refer to John's deal. We're heading in the right direction!

[Dat2U]

If I were Shepp... I'd shop Rui & Deni while they still have value. I see some duplication in Rui & Kuz. Rui is still on a rookie deal and comes with his own fan base & market. He may have some value to rebuilding teams like Cleveland or Houston. Deni is a recent enough pick who teams a overlook his poor rookie season considering the situation last year. I'm trying to pry Sexton or C. Wood away. A young 2nd/3rd scoring option with untapped upside to raise the ceiling a bit.

[bsilver]

...It also may turn out that these three drafts yield three good players. Years ago, a GM said that if you have three straight good drafts you can become a good team. It’s hard to do.

Good drafts; not great. Great x 3 would be tremendous — that’s an even harder thing to pull off. But just good. Not that they were the best pick for that slot — but again: good; a player who is good, and/or whom other teams would be glad to have. And for three consecutive years. I think it’s entirely possible that Tommy Shepp has done that.

Think about it: when was the last time in the history of this franchise that we drafted well three years in a row? Have we ever? Masai did it not long ago with Toronto — Anunoby in 2017, Siakam and Poetl in 2016, Delon Wright in 2015.

You start with "it... may turn out," & your next step (comparing to Toronto) assumes that it has!

There's no evidence that we've drafted well -- even once! -- in any year since 2012. When one of Rui, Deni or Corey becomes a good player ("not great..."), you can point to his draft as evidence. Hasn't happened yet for either Rui or Deni, that's for sure!

Moreover, it's not years in a row that matter, it's number of actually good players -- overall & for that particular draft/pick position. I'd be happy to name several teams that have had single drafts, or 2 in a row, that got them the requisite 3 good players you describe as coming in 3 in a row good drafts.

To take an obvious example, after drafting Morant #2 in 2019, Memphis went on to take Clarke. Then in 2020, coming in to the draft with no picks, they walked away with Desmond Bane & Xavier Tillman. This year once again, they were dealing all draft along.

I'm not trying to make a megillah out of this (probably only badinage will get that reference). I'm a big supporter of Tommy Sheppard; I think overall he's done kind of an amazing job in refactoring this franchise -- especially dealing with "the worst contract in the league" as people used to refer to John's deal. We're heading in the right direction!

You'd be surprised how many know the "megillah" reference, although it's usually "the whole megillah" (the Megillah is the Book of Esther from the Old Testament, which apparently is thought to be a long drawn out story).
Some people think they know the reference correctly. I was in a work meeting where the manager used the term, "the whole schlemiel". Not quite right!

[dckingsfan]

If I were Shepp... I'd shop Rui & Deni while they still have value. I see some duplication in Rui & Kuz. Rui is still on a rookie deal and comes with his own fan base & market. He may have some value to rebuilding teams like Cleveland or Houston. Deni is a recent enough pick who teams a overlook his poor rookie season considering the situation last year. I'm trying to pry Sexton or C. Wood away. A young 2nd/3rd scoring option with untapped upside to raise the ceiling a bit.

The trade for Wood is the most interesting to me. What is also interesting is that Houston has two first round picks in each of the next two years and "seem" to be building for the future. Clearly Wall, Gordon and Augustin don't fit that narrative. Does Wood?

PG John Wall/D.J. Augustin, Avery Bradley
SG Jalen Green/Kevin Porter Jr./Eric Gordon/Josh Christopher/Khyri Thomas
SF Jae'Sean Tate/David Nwaba/Kenyon Martin Jr.
PF Christian Wood/Usman Garuba/Danuel House
C Daniel Theis/Alperen Sengun

I could easily argue that Sengun is going to be a PF. The question is what would they want from the Wizards (other than picks which we probably can't and won't give up at this point)?

I would really like Wood given what we have. Dinwiddie/Beal/Bertans/Wood/Gafford would be pretty good, IMO.

If they thought Rui would be the answer as SF, maybe?

[Frichuela]

If I were Shepp... I'd shop Rui & Deni while they still have value. I see some duplication in Rui & Kuz. Rui is still on a rookie deal and comes with his own fan base & market. He may have some value to rebuilding teams like Cleveland or Houston. Deni is a recent enough pick who teams a overlook his poor rookie season considering the situation last year. I'm trying to pry Sexton or C. Wood away. A young 2nd/3rd scoring option with untapped upside to raise the ceiling a bit.

The trade for Wood is the most interesting to me. What is also interesting is that Houston has two first round picks in each of the next two years and "seem" to be building for the future. Clearly Wall, Gordon and Augustin don't fit that narrative. Does Wood?

PG John Wall/D.J. Augustin, Avery Bradley
SG Jalen Green/Kevin Porter Jr./Eric Gordon/Josh Christopher/Khyri Thomas
SF Jae'Sean Tate/David Nwaba/Kenyon Martin Jr.
PF Christian Wood/Usman Garuba/Danuel House
C Daniel Theis/Alperen Sengun

I could easily argue that Sengun is going to be a PF. The question is what would they want from the Wizards (other than picks which we probably can't and won't give up at this point)?

I would really like Wood given what we have. Dinwiddie/Beal/Bertans/Wood/Gafford would be pretty good, IMO.

If they thought Rui would be the answer as SF, maybe?

Would Houston contemplate Rui+Deni+Bryant for Wood+Garuba? I’d seriously consider this trade. It’s essentially trading Rui+Bryant for Wood and Deni for Garuba. The potential Wood+Garuba pairing at the 4/5 could be very interesting.

[Frichuela]

If I were Shepp... I'd shop Rui & Deni while they still have value. I see some duplication in Rui & Kuz. Rui is still on a rookie deal and comes with his own fan base & market. He may have some value to rebuilding teams like Cleveland or Houston. Deni is a recent enough pick who teams a overlook his poor rookie season considering the situation last year. I'm trying to pry Sexton or C. Wood away. A young 2nd/3rd scoring option with untapped upside to raise the ceiling a bit.

The trade for Wood is the most interesting to me. What is also interesting is that Houston has two first round picks in each of the next two years and "seem" to be building for the future. Clearly Wall, Gordon and Augustin don't fit that narrative. Does Wood?

PG John Wall/D.J. Augustin, Avery Bradley
SG Jalen Green/Kevin Porter Jr./Eric Gordon/Josh Christopher/Khyri Thomas
SF Jae'Sean Tate/David Nwaba/Kenyon Martin Jr.
PF Christian Wood/Usman Garuba/Danuel House
C Daniel Theis/Alperen Sengun

I could easily argue that Sengun is going to be a PF. The question is what would they want from the Wizards (other than picks which we probably can't and won't give up at this point)?

I would really like Wood given what we have. Dinwiddie/Beal/Bertans/Wood/Gafford would be pretty good, IMO.

If they thought Rui would be the answer as SF, maybe?

Would Houston contemplate Rui+Deni+Bryant for Wood+Garuba? I’d seriously consider this trade. It’s essentially trading Rui+Bryant for Wood and Deni for Garuba. The potential Wood+Garuba pairing at the 4/5 could be very interesting.

Our roster would look like:

Dinwiddie/Holiday/Neto
Beal/KCP
Kuzma/Bertans/Kispert
Wood/Garuba/Todd
Gafford/Harrell

Loads of versatility with Wood and Garuba able to play 4 or 5, Bertans and Kuzma 3 or 4 and KCP 2 or 3.

[payitforward]

If I were Shepp... I'd shop Rui & Deni while they still have value. I see some duplication in Rui & Kuz. Rui is still on a rookie deal and comes with his own fan base & market. He may have some value to rebuilding teams like Cleveland or Houston. Deni is a recent enough pick who teams a overlook his poor rookie season considering the situation last year. I'm trying to pry Sexton or C. Wood away. A young 2nd/3rd scoring option with untapped upside to raise the ceiling a bit.

Collin Sexton had a far worse rookie season than Deni Avdija! In fact, I'm not sure his 3d year, this year, was any better than Deni's rookie year.

He also had a far worse rookie year than Rui Hachimura. What do you see in this guy I wonder?

[bsilver]

If I were Shepp... I'd shop Rui & Deni while they still have value. I see some duplication in Rui & Kuz. Rui is still on a rookie deal and comes with his own fan base & market. He may have some value to rebuilding teams like Cleveland or Houston. Deni is a recent enough pick who teams a overlook his poor rookie season considering the situation last year. I'm trying to pry Sexton or C. Wood away. A young 2nd/3rd scoring option with untapped upside to raise the ceiling a bit.

The trade for Wood is the most interesting to me. What is also interesting is that Houston has two first round picks in each of the next two years and "seem" to be building for the future. Clearly Wall, Gordon and Augustin don't fit that narrative. Does Wood?

PG John Wall/D.J. Augustin, Avery Bradley
SG Jalen Green/Kevin Porter Jr./Eric Gordon/Josh Christopher/Khyri Thomas
SF Jae'Sean Tate/David Nwaba/Kenyon Martin Jr.
PF Christian Wood/Usman Garuba/Danuel House
C Daniel Theis/Alperen Sengun

I could easily argue that Sengun is going to be a PF. The question is what would they want from the Wizards (other than picks which we probably can't and won't give up at this point)?

I would really like Wood given what we have. Dinwiddie/Beal/Bertans/Wood/Gafford would be pretty good, IMO.

If they thought Rui would be the answer as SF, maybe?

The problem is that they probably don't want anything from us. They're waiting to be free of bad Wall/Gordon contracts. They're a bad 3 point shooting team, so could use Bertans, but why add another bad contract. Is there anyone on the Wizards that's actually better than Wood, except Beal and maybe Dinwiddie? The Rockets should stand pat. Obviously they'd love to be rid of Wall/Gordon, but can't see that happening.

[payitforward]

...You'd be surprised how many know the "megillah" reference, although it's usually "the whole megillah" (the Megillah is the Book of Esther from the Old Testament, which apparently is thought to be a long drawn out story)....

The Book of Esther is a "megillah," yes. But the word doesn't refer to that book alone.

5 books in the Tanakh (the Jewish Bible) are called by that descriptive name ("Megillah" means "scroll" in Hebrew). In addition to Esther, they are the Song of Songs, Ruth, Lamentations & Ecclesiastes.

You're right of course that when people say "the whole Megillah," they mean the whole "long, drawn out story" -- i.e. everything from A to Z including the details. But not b/c the Scroll of Esther itself is long; it's only about 5000 words (for comparison, Genesis is @32,000 words).

...Some people think they know the reference correctly. I was in a work meeting where the manager used the term, "the whole schlemiel". Not quite right!

That's particularly wrong, because "schlemiel" is a Yiddish word (meaning "fool," an incompetent person) & no more than about 250 years old, while "megillah" is an ancient Hebrew term.

More than anyone wanted to know!!

[dckingsfan]

If I were Shepp... I'd shop Rui & Deni while they still have value. I see some duplication in Rui & Kuz. Rui is still on a rookie deal and comes with his own fan base & market. He may have some value to rebuilding teams like Cleveland or Houston. Deni is a recent enough pick who teams a overlook his poor rookie season considering the situation last year. I'm trying to pry Sexton or C. Wood away. A young 2nd/3rd scoring option with untapped upside to raise the ceiling a bit.

The trade for Wood is the most interesting to me. What is also interesting is that Houston has two first round picks in each of the next two years and "seem" to be building for the future. Clearly Wall, Gordon and Augustin don't fit that narrative. Does Wood?

PG John Wall/D.J. Augustin, Avery Bradley
SG Jalen Green/Kevin Porter Jr./Eric Gordon/Josh Christopher/Khyri Thomas
SF Jae'Sean Tate/David Nwaba/Kenyon Martin Jr.
PF Christian Wood/Usman Garuba/Danuel House
C Daniel Theis/Alperen Sengun

I could easily argue that Sengun is going to be a PF. The question is what would they want from the Wizards (other than picks which we probably can't and won't give up at this point)?

I would really like Wood given what we have. Dinwiddie/Beal/Bertans/Wood/Gafford would be pretty good, IMO.

If they thought Rui would be the answer as SF, maybe?

The problem is that they probably don't want anything from us. They're waiting to be free of bad Wall/Gordon contracts. They're a bad 3 point shooting team, so could use Bertans, but why add another bad contract. Is there anyone on the Wizards that's actually better than Wood, except Beal and maybe Dinwiddie? The Rockets should stand pat. Obviously they'd love to be rid of Wall/Gordon, but can't see that happening.

Yeah, that is the problem. And if they move him they probably want more picks. I don't think he fits into their plans either (like Wall, Bradley and Gordon.

[payitforward]

Would Houston contemplate Rui+Deni+Bryant for Wood+Garuba? I’d seriously consider this trade. It’s essentially trading Rui+Bryant for Wood and Deni for Garuba. The potential Wood+Garuba pairing at the 4/5 could be very interesting.

I don't think it's likely we can get the right value for Bryant until he shows he's come back from his injury & is the same player he was.

I also don't think the Wizards will trade Rui. Period. He brings a unique market: Monumental Sports makes a lot of money on Rui in Japan.

Finally, trading the guy you took at #9 in 2020 for the guy who went #23 in 2021 makes you look foolish. Not happening.

Anyway... why would Houston want to trade Christian Wood?

[Dat2U]

If I were Shepp... I'd shop Rui & Deni while they still have value. I see some duplication in Rui & Kuz. Rui is still on a rookie deal and comes with his own fan base & market. He may have some value to rebuilding teams like Cleveland or Houston. Deni is a recent enough pick who teams a overlook his poor rookie season considering the situation last year. I'm trying to pry Sexton or C. Wood away. A young 2nd/3rd scoring option with untapped upside to raise the ceiling a bit.

Collin Sexton had a far worse rookie season than Deni Avdija! In fact, I'm not sure his 3d year, this year, was any better than Deni's rookie year.

He also had a far worse rookie year than Rui Hachimura. What do you see in this guy I wonder?

My statistical evaluation is different from yours. Collin has elite scoring ability. He's a very good shot creator. He's struggled in the other aspects... especially running a team. I don't think he's a true PG, more of a hybrid 1/2. I think he's a good 'buy low' candidate who may just need a better situation.

[dckingsfan]

Anyway... why would Houston want to trade Christian Wood?

You sadly hit the nail on the head (genesis?) but... think about the time frame for Houston. I mentioned early that there are a number of players that don't fit into their timeframe. I think that Wood is one of those players. And with their draft - I would double down on that notion.

But the second question then rears its ugly head (I should know the history of that phrase as well, but do not): why would Houston trade Wood to us? Do we have players they feel fit their need and timeframe?

[pcbothwel]

If I were Shepp... I'd shop Rui & Deni while they still have value. I see some duplication in Rui & Kuz. Rui is still on a rookie deal and comes with his own fan base & market. He may have some value to rebuilding teams like Cleveland or Houston. Deni is a recent enough pick who teams a overlook his poor rookie season considering the situation last year. I'm trying to pry Sexton or C. Wood away. A young 2nd/3rd scoring option with untapped upside to raise the ceiling a bit.

Collin Sexton had a far worse rookie season than Deni Avdija! In fact, I'm not sure his 3d year, this year, was any better than Deni's rookie year.

He also had a far worse rookie year than Rui Hachimura. What do you see in this guy I wonder?

My statistical evaluation is different from yours. Collin has elite scoring ability. He's a very good shot creator. He's struggled in the other aspects... especially running a team. I don't think he's a true PG, more of a hybrid 1/2. I think he's a good 'buy low' candidate who may just need a better situation.

Have to disagree Dat. Archetype has to take precedent here.
Lead Guard/Ball handlers dont allow for any 'grey' area in their assessment, because like a QB in football, the team is invested in them in every possession. Therefore, they are either good enough to lead a team (Kyrie, Lebron, Harden, etc.), or they are a 6th man. Most of them are much less effective off the ball, but arent good enough on the ball to earn the usage most teams require from them.

[payitforward]

If I were Shepp... I'd shop Rui & Deni while they still have value. I see some duplication in Rui & Kuz. Rui is still on a rookie deal and comes with his own fan base & market. He may have some value to rebuilding teams like Cleveland or Houston. Deni is a recent enough pick who teams a overlook his poor rookie season considering the situation last year. I'm trying to pry Sexton or C. Wood away. A young 2nd/3rd scoring option with untapped upside to raise the ceiling a bit.

Collin Sexton had a far worse rookie season than Deni Avdija! In fact, I'm not sure his 3d year, this year, was any better than Deni's rookie year.

He also had a far worse rookie year than Rui Hachimura. What do you see in this guy I wonder?

My statistical evaluation is different from yours. Collin has elite scoring ability. He's a very good shot creator. He's struggled in the other aspects... especially running a team. I don't think he's a true PG, more of a hybrid 1/2. I think he's a good 'buy low' candidate who may just need a better situation.

In his favor, Sexton has scored a little more & also a little more efficiently both his 2d & 3d years. He may turn out all right.

My problem is with how comfortable you are giving up on Deni Avdija, a #9 pick who came into the league at 20 years old & was obviously mis-used. I.e. you want to "buy low" on Sexton, but if the way you do it is to "sell low" on Avdija....

[Ruzious]

Dat's perspective on Sexton is the only one mentioned that bears any resemblance to mine. It's just best to play him with a bigger point (like Dinwiddie) or hybrid guard (like Beal) - which is why Cleveland's not a good place for him.

[payitforward]

Dat's perspective on Sexton is the only one mentioned that bears any resemblance to mine. It's just best to play him with a bigger point (like Dinwiddie) or hybrid guard (like Beal) - which is why Cleveland's not a good place for him.

Is there any evidence for this thesis? Or does it just somehow feel that way to you? Or...?

[Ruzious]

Dat's perspective on Sexton is the only one mentioned that bears any resemblance to mine. It's just best to play him with a bigger point (like Dinwiddie) or hybrid guard (like Beal) - which is why Cleveland's not a good place for him.

Is there any evidence for this thesis? Or does it just somehow feel that way to you? Or...?

In that same vein, has anyone actually proven that wearing footwear is beneficial while playing basketball?

Sexton and Garland are both 6'1 190ish. When's the last time a team had any success starting 2 guards that small? No fair counting your middle school team.