Post#184 » by gf2020hotmail » Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:32 am
[Another long post that is somewhat redundant to the original post, but further clarifies cap space changes since the original post and also talks about which teams aren't even theoretical options in sign and trades]
I revised the first post of this thread to reflect some contract details that came in late in the off-season, including Jordan's exact buyout figure. I also looked into draft picks held and likely salary projects for rookies in 22 to 23. And what became even clearer is that Zach's market is even more limited than it appears.
With the way things are looking, I am not sure any team will actually have a max cap slot to offer Zach as free agency begins.
Orlando now has around $47 million but that's without Bamba's and Carter's cap holds or actual salary on the roster. It seems very unlikely they renounce both and make them unrestricted.
San Antonio has $43 million if they don't make a qualifying offer to Lonnie Walker before Free Agency begins AND stretch/waive Zach Collins' guaranteed money. Not doing either one of those things would eliminate them as having max cap space.
Detroit has $40 million if they decline the team option on Diallo, but only $35 million if they pick it up.
But here's the thing -- these numbers don't include the $6 to $11 million for a top six draft pick which all three teams are projected to have, which I didn't really include in my first post. That would take out San Antonio and Detroit from max cap space and might even take Orlando out of it.
Memphis still looms but I hadn't realized they are likely to have at least two first round picks which at the least will be around $6 million in salary. They are at 26 million with Culver’s option declined and a $27.5 cap hold for Jaren Jackson but that doesn’t include the two first round draft picks they are likely to have. Theoretically, they could dump all of the picks or pick foreign stashes, hold Jackson’s salary to $17 starting out, and move 1 or 2 of their smaller contract and be around a max cap space but it seems unlikely Jackson agrees to $17 million right away.
Nothing has really changed with the Pelicans. They are still at $29 million if they decline Josh Hart's option. They'd still have to dump two or three players to get max cap space.
Things will stay static with these figures until we see if Bamba or Carter, Walker or Jackson agree to extensions before November. But for now, to get max cap space any of these would really need to know Zach is coming for sure to make the moves in advance so they aren't lacked into cap holds for restricted free agents and they can stash their first round picks.
Also to update on the sign and trade front, obviously Zach's leverage appears limited with no credible place he can feign signing with to get the Bulls to move him to a more desirable market. But what's less obvious is how many teams are currently removed even as a theoretical sign and trade consideration.
Under the CBA, you can't obtain a player in sign & trade if you are above the Apron which is $151.1 million in 22-23. Right now, a staggering six teams will be above the apron -- the Nets, Nuggets, Warriors, Lakers, Clippers and Bucks with the potential for the Suns to join that group.
Memphis is still a slight threat, especially if Jackson has an awful year and they decide to move on, but man oh man did the Bulls luck out again when it comes into the market Zach is entering. I assume this is one of the reasons Zach went with a power player like Klutch because the internal leverage of Klutch holding a grudge against the Bulls affecting other things down the line is almost better leverage than anything Zach do externally with the lack of alternative attractive situations available.