1970s Top Team Tourney Ro32, '70 Lakers @ '74 Celtics

[sansterre]

Don't forget, the home team for the series only benefits from that designation for Game 7. The rankings for these teams are out of 37 (because there are 37 teams in the 1970s tourney). The player stats are SS (ShotShare, percentage of team's shots taken when on the court), and the slash stats are rebounds per game, assists per game and stocks per game (if applicable), all adjusted to a Pace of 100.

The 1970 Los Angeles Lakers (#26) @ The 1974 Boston Celtics (#7)

Overall:

Record: ‘74 Celtics, 56 wins (15th) > '70 Lakers, 46 wins (35th)
RSRS: ‘74 Celtics, +3.42 (25th) > ‘70 Lakers, +1.76 (34th)
PSRS: '74 Celtics, +10.22 (5th) > ‘70 Lakers, +7.17 (14th)

When the '70 Lakers have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '70 Lakers' offense vs '74 Celtics’ defense:

Regular Season: +0.1 Offensive Rating (31st) vs -2.6 Defensive Rating (22nd): -2.5 expected
Playoffs: +2.0 Offensive Rating (22nd) vs -6.7 Defensive Rating (5th): -4.7 expected

Lineup:

PG: Jerry West, 28.3% SS on +6.1% rTS, 27.4 / 4.0 / 6.6
SG: Dick Garrett, 16.7% SS on -3.4% rTS, 10.2 / 2.8 / 2.2
SF: Keith Erickson, 15.3% SS on -1.9% rTS, 7.8 / 4.0 / 2.7
PF: Elgin Baylor, 23.8% SS on +2.6% rTS, 21.1 / 9.1 / 4.7
C: Wilt Chamberlain, 25.5% SS on +4.3% rTS, 24.0 / 16.2 / 3.6

(I know that Baylor wasn’t actually playing PF, but these five players all averaged 32.5 mpg or higher, and nobody else averaged more than 20, so I’m approximating positions)


When the '74 Celtics have Possession:

Overall Comparison, '74 Celtics' offense vs '70 Lakers' defense:

Regular Season: +0.9 Offensive Rating (25th) vs -1.6 Defensive Rating (26th): -0.7 expected
Playoffs: +2.4 Offensive Rating (14th) vs -4.1 Defensive Rating (15th): -1.7 expected

Lineup:

PG: Jo Jo White, 21.2% SS on -2.1% rTS, 16.5 / 3.9 / 5.0 / 1.5: +0.4 playoff OBPM
SG: Don Chaney, 16.3% SS on +0.7% rTS, 9.5 / 4.3 / 2.0 / 1.6: +1.4 playoff OBPM
SF: John Havlicek, 24.3% SS on +0.6% rTS, 20.5 / 5.8 / 5.4 / 1.5: +5.8 playoff OBPM
PF: Paul Silas, 15.8% SS on +1.0% rTS, 10.5 / 10.2 / 2.1 / 0.9: +1.5 playoff OBPM
C: Dave Cowens, 21.2% SS on -2.7% rTS, 17.3 / 14.3 / 4.0 / 2.3: +2.0 playoff OBPM
6th: Don Nelson, 21.3% SS on +6.0% rTS, 10.5 / 3.8 / 1.8 / 0.4: +2.2 playoff OBPM

Discussion Questions:

-Injuries: None
-Well, regular season comparisons are right out. The ‘70 Lakers had their studs miss so much time (70 games from Wilt, 8 from West and 28 from Elgin) that their regular season was a shadow of itself. So the postseason is pretty much all we have to work with for that team. And it was quite the postseason. They didn’t face any good teams in their own conference (-1.66 and +0.31 RSRS) but they still won those series by 6 and 9 points respectively. And in the NBA Finals they faced the clear best team of the regular season New York Knicks and played them extremely tight, losing in seven by one point per game. It’s clear that the ‘70 Lakers were very strong in the postseason.
-The ‘74 Celtics were no slouches in that department. In the Conference Finals they destroyed the Knicks by 10 points a game. I’ll grant you that the Knicks were missing Willis Reed, but they were still a decent team without him. Ten points a game is no joke against a team with Walt Frazier. And in the Finals they took down Kareem at the height of his powers by almost five points a game. And yeah, the Bucks were a little injured and a little worn, but they still had the best RSRS that year by almost 4 points a game. They were a great team, and the Celtics took them out.
-This looks to be a defensive matchup as both teams excelled on that side of the ball.
-When the Lakers have the ball, can West be slowed down? I’m betting not, nor do I think that Cowens is going to particularly stifle Wilt. But the Celtics are deep and tough, and I think Erickson and Garrett will struggle to get much going. The Celtics were one of the best defensive rebounding teams that we have access to, but will they be able to keep Wilt off the boards? I doubt it, but I do think they’ll be able to keep everyone else from getting many. I think that the Lakers will be able to score some, but the ‘74 Celtics are a very good defense. I doubt they’ll get anything easy.
-When the Celtics have the ball . . . I mean, the Celtics don’t have a great offense either. And the Lakers, fortified by Chamberlain, are very capable on the defensive end. But Cowens’ offensive strength is being able to bomb away from the midrange; he wasn’t particularly efficient at it but it may well pull Wilt out of the paint. Havlicek is going to be very hard to stop, as always. He’s not the scorer that West is, but the Celtics relied less on Hondo to carry the offense. Again, I’m very curious on the boards, because the ‘70 Lakers tended to play Wilt as their only full-time big (though Counts and Hairston basically split 34 minutes a game). Can Cowens and Silas out-rebound Wilt and whoever’s playing the 4? I’m cautious about that one.
-The Celtics drew the short end of the stick with this seeding. The seeding formula is built on Record, RSRS, PSRS and Playoff Round Advanced To. It's pretty reasonable in most cases, but there are times when the regular season is a giant red herring. So the '74 Celtics draw a team that in all fairness should have been higher. But seeding isn't always fair, and they were going to run into tough teams sooner or later.
-All the metrics suggest that the ‘74 Celtics are the better team. But is it that open and shut? The Celtics had some advantages in the playoffs (opposition with injuries) that undercut their success slightly. They had a murderous press that they used to wreck the Bucks’ backcourt in the Finals . . . but do we think that’s going to be a viable tool against Jerry West? I don’t know. I think this will be a really interesting matchup, and I can’t wait to read what everyone thinks!


I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.

Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!

Spoiler:

MasterThread

[wojoaderge]

PG: Jerry West, 28.3% SS on +6.1% rTS, 27.4 / 4.0 / 6.6
SG: Dick Garrett, 16.7% SS on -3.4% rTS, 10.2 / 2.8 / 2.2
SF: Keith Erickson, 15.3% SS on -1.9% rTS, 7.8 / 4.0 / 2.7
PF: Elgin Baylor, 23.8% SS on +2.6% rTS, 21.1 / 9.1 / 4.7
C: Wilt Chamberlain, 25.5% SS on +4.3% rTS, 24.0 / 16.2 / 3.6

(I know that Baylor wasn’t actually playing PF, but these five players all averaged 32.5 mpg or higher, and nobody else averaged more than 20, so I’m approximating positions)

If i'm not mistaken, you're leaving out Happy Hairston completely.

[sansterre]

PG: Jerry West, 28.3% SS on +6.1% rTS, 27.4 / 4.0 / 6.6
SG: Dick Garrett, 16.7% SS on -3.4% rTS, 10.2 / 2.8 / 2.2
SF: Keith Erickson, 15.3% SS on -1.9% rTS, 7.8 / 4.0 / 2.7
PF: Elgin Baylor, 23.8% SS on +2.6% rTS, 21.1 / 9.1 / 4.7
C: Wilt Chamberlain, 25.5% SS on +4.3% rTS, 24.0 / 16.2 / 3.6

(I know that Baylor wasn’t actually playing PF, but these five players all averaged 32.5 mpg or higher, and nobody else averaged more than 20, so I’m approximating positions)

If i'm not mistaken, you're leaving out Happy Hairston completely.

18.5 minutes per game in the playoffs - I usually don't list anybody that played less than 20.

If there's a different format people would prefer I'm happy to oblige.

[wojoaderge]

18.5 minutes per game in the playoffs - I usually don't list anybody that played less than 20.

Does anyone know the reason for this? 20 minutes less than his regular season average?

[penbeast0]

Cowens will be a tough cover for Wilt, they probably switch him onto Silas who won't hurt them from longer midrange as much. The Celtics match up really well and the Lakers had all those health issues, I favor the Celtics in 5.

[sansterre]

18.5 minutes per game in the playoffs - I usually don't list anybody that played less than 20.

Does anyone know the reason for this? 20 minutes less than his regular season average?

His minutes played for the end of the season:

41, 43, 12, 41, 24, 12

And in the playoffs:

31, 30, 40, 17, 4, 7
7, 3, 12, 40
13, 19, 19, 17, 22, 15

Sure looks like an injury to me.

[70sFan]

18.5 minutes per game in the playoffs - I usually don't list anybody that played less than 20.

Does anyone know the reason for this? 20 minutes less than his regular season average?

I don't know any details, but I remember reading that Happy dealt with injuries in 1970 playoffs.

[70sFan]

Cowens will be a tough cover for Wilt, they probably switch him onto Silas who won't hurt them from longer midrange as much. The Celtics match up really well and the Lakers had all those health issues, I favor the Celtics in 5.

Despite all the health problems, Lakers still went incredibly close of beating 1970 Knicks - a team that was clearly superior than 1974 Celtics. You can point out Reed injury in game 5, but the series was tied and (outside of game 1) all games were extremely close.

Lakers were very strong in 1970, I'm very surprised that you picked Celtics in only 5 games to be honest. Chaney on West is a good option, but I doubt he'd shut him down. Cowens and Wilt are bad matchups for each other, I expect Dave to be badly beaten on the boards. Celtics are better defensively overall, but their offense was far from amazing.

I think the series would definitely go down to 6-7 games and I'm not even sure who would have won.

[sansterre]

I've gone back and forth on this many times. On one hand, I think that the Lakers are underrated because of their regular season. On the other hand, the only data we have is them beating on mediocre teams and playing the Knicks tight in one series when Reed was injured. On the other hand, the Celtics had their own injury luck that's inflating their numbers.

Ultimately, I lean toward the healthier team that has home court advantage in Game 7. Celtics in 7.

And I am seriously open to being talked out of this.

[homecourtloss]

Cowens will be a tough cover for Wilt, they probably switch him onto Silas who won't hurt them from longer midrange as much. The Celtics match up really well and the Lakers had all those health issues, I favor the Celtics in 5.

Cowens is a player I’m sure nobody ever liked playing against—super high motor, quick explosive movements all throughout the game, relentless. That touch on that sweet lefty 15+ foot jumper and career upward trajectory in FT shooting suggest to me he’d eventually become a decent three point stretch 5 in today’s game. His fluidity with the ball at the top of the key and solid footwork suggest he might be able to draw fouls that way. In any case, one of my favorite players from the ‘70s.

As for the this series, the injuries to these Lakers would be too much to overcome, I think. I’m taking Celtics in 7 (Laker talent pushing the series, BOS homecourt being the deciding factor); thr 1970 Lakers were able to play well vs. the Knicks even with the injuries, so I think you’d see the same here.

[sansterre]

We have three votes for the Celtics and one undecided. Tight matchup, but the Celtics advance to play the winner of the '75 Bullets and the '72 Bulls.