[Wojnarowski]: MPJ gets the max

[Prospect Dong]

Another team could offer him a 3+1.

Sure. But they can, in fact, lock him up for 5 years, no options, if he wants to sign that kind of a deal - just like now. I think the odds of Denver changing their minds after this season, while low, are much higher than the odds of Porter changing his mind about wanting the full max. And I don't view agreeing to sign a deal without options as a significant concession from a guy who has played in zero all star games and is going to be paid the max.

Whats the difference, this contract will still start next season? This way, he doesnt have to think about it troughout the season

Yes, I don't think anyone is arguing that getting extended now isn't better for Michael Porter. But it's worse for the Nuggets. They lose the option value of changing their mind at the end of the season if new information emerges about a player who has only played one season to date, and made zero all star games. In all likelihood, they end up in the same place, and agree this exact deal after the season, no harm done. But in a few possible worlds they end up being super glad not having agreed to a max deal for a non-max player. MPJ should be giving something up in return for them losing that flexibility, and he's not.

They made the exact same decision with Murray, before he sniffed an all star game, and I think there's a chance they'd get a discount if they were negotiating now, rather than giving up all their leverage in advance.

[Prospect Dong]

You can say that about literally any multi-year contract. It's pointless.

Right, but with players who either still have a way to go to be worth a max, and/or who have a serious enough injury history to be concerned about availability over the course of five years, it's relevant. This isn't Doncic or Mitchell here where those concerns are clearly outweighed.

Eh, if MPJ played the exact same next year he would still get a max. Also, they obviously feel good about his medicals.

But what if he played worse? That happens to guys with a limited body of work, and especially to guys with an injury history.

I agree that, if MPJ was a free agent right now, he gets the max from a couple of teams. It's not a slam dunk, but someone's going to take that chance. But he's not a free agent, and he's proven unusually little for a guy approaching his rookie extension. All your comments treat signing him to a max deal as a huge favor to Denver, and all they should care about is getting more MPJ on a max deal. I don't think he's shown he's that guy - if I'm talking about an MVP candidate I'll do everything in my power to make him feel marginally more likely to stay. But MPJ's an all-star candidate, and you just don't treat guys like that the same way. If he demands a player option, I tell him "no", and if he won't budge I let him test the marker and match whatever he signs.

When a guy is in that range where he's only sort of/probably worth the max, you need to be willing to treat them differently to how you treat superstars. And I feel like Denver have failed that test twice with their extension guys.

[Richard Miller]

They made the exact same decision with Murray, before he sniffed an all star game, and I think there's a chance they'd get a discount if they were negotiating now, rather than giving up all their leverage in advance.

Murray actually played better than "all star game" in the bubble and was key part of Nuggets making it to the WCF after a decade. If all you're after are discounts, you'll likely be somewhere near the bottom with Kings and the likes. But hey, at least Vivek made a lot of cash, that's got to count for something, right?

[Ballerhogger]

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[bondom34]

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[Rapcity_11]

Right, but with players who either still have a way to go to be worth a max, and/or who have a serious enough injury history to be concerned about availability over the course of five years, it's relevant. This isn't Doncic or Mitchell here where those concerns are clearly outweighed.

Eh, if MPJ played the exact same next year he would still get a max. Also, they obviously feel good about his medicals.

But what if he played worse? That happens to guys with a limited body of work, and especially to guys with an injury history.

I agree that, if MPJ was a free agent right now, he gets the max from a couple of teams. It's not a slam dunk, but someone's going to take that chance. But he's not a free agent, and he's proven unusually little for a guy approaching his rookie extension. All your comments treat signing him to a max deal as a huge favor to Denver, and all they should care about is getting more MPJ on a max deal. I don't think he's shown he's that guy - if I'm talking about an MVP candidate I'll do everything in my power to make him feel marginally more likely to stay. But MPJ's an all-star candidate, and you just don't treat guys like that the same way. If he demands a player option, I tell him "no", and if he won't budge I let him test the marker and match whatever he signs.

When a guy is in that range where he's only sort of/probably worth the max, you need to be willing to treat them differently to how you treat superstars. And I feel like Denver have failed that test twice with their extension guys.

Where did I say it was a huge favor to Denver?

The bottom line is that guys with MPJ's stats + pedigree get max deals. Denver clearly thought it was worth it to get it done early to avoid a PO + get the full 5 years. It's fine to think that's not enough to do it early, but there is justification for it.

[gswhoops]

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Seems like a good out if his injury history becomes a problem over the life of this deal. I’m sure they’d be happy to see it become fully guaranteed given those conditions

[BullyKing]

They made the exact same decision with Murray, before he sniffed an all star game, and I think there's a chance they'd get a discount if they were negotiating now, rather than giving up all their leverage in advance.

Murray actually played better than "all star game" in the bubble and was key part of Nuggets making it to the WCF after a decade. If all you're after are discounts, you'll likely be somewhere near the bottom with Kings and the likes. But hey, at least Vivek made a lot of cash, that's got to count for something, right?

The underlined is not what we strive for on this board. Leave it out next time.

[Richard Miller]

They made the exact same decision with Murray, before he sniffed an all star game, and I think there's a chance they'd get a discount if they were negotiating now, rather than giving up all their leverage in advance.

Murray actually played better than "all star game" in the bubble and was key part of Nuggets making it to the WCF after a decade. If all you're after are discounts, you'll likely be somewhere near the bottom with Kings and the likes. But hey, at least Vivek made a lot of cash, that's got to count for something, right?

The underlined is not what we strive for on this board. Leave it out next time.

I apologize, nothing against the Kings as a team, their (now ex) management imo deserves criticism.

[Prospect Dong]

They made the exact same decision with Murray, before he sniffed an all star game, and I think there's a chance they'd get a discount if they were negotiating now, rather than giving up all their leverage in advance.

Murray actually played better than "all star game" in the bubble and was key part of Nuggets making it to the WCF after a decade. If all you're after are discounts, you'll likely be somewhere near the bottom with Kings and the likes. But hey, at least Vivek made a lot of cash, that's got to count for something, right?

I think the odds are that Murray and Porter both end up earning their max deals. But it's very dangerous to make five year plans based on what happened in the bubble and, more generally, there's a real value to teams in retaining flexibility, especially where you're relying on smaller-than-usual sample sizes. I think smart business is not to give up that valuable flexibility for free, which is what they appear to have done twice here.

The counter argument seems to be that, had the Nuggets just waited until these guys were entering free agency, they might have been "forced" to accept a player option or a four year deal. I don't think either of those outcomes is the end of the world for players on Murray/Porter's tier. I would, somewhat grudgingly, pay either the max, but I'm not building my whole team around that as a goal. But, also, that's not really a thing. MPJ's bargaining position to demand an opt out wouldn't be much different in a year's time, and they could very easily tell him "no" if they needed to.

[Richard Miller]

They made the exact same decision with Murray, before he sniffed an all star game, and I think there's a chance they'd get a discount if they were negotiating now, rather than giving up all their leverage in advance.

Murray actually played better than "all star game" in the bubble and was key part of Nuggets making it to the WCF after a decade. If all you're after are discounts, you'll likely be somewhere near the bottom with Kings and the likes. But hey, at least Vivek made a lot of cash, that's got to count for something, right?

But it's very dangerous to make five year plans based on what happened in the bubble

Murray was paid before the bubble

[Prospect Dong]

Murray actually played better than "all star game" in the bubble and was key part of Nuggets making it to the WCF after a decade. If all you're after are discounts, you'll likely be somewhere near the bottom with Kings and the likes. But hey, at least Vivek made a lot of cash, that's got to count for something, right?

But it's very dangerous to make five year plans based on what happened in the bubble

Murray was paid before the bubble

Yes, but you're justifying it based on his play in the bubble. Neither version is smart, but yours is certainly stranger.

[Richard Miller]

But it's very dangerous to make five year plans based on what happened in the bubble

Murray was paid before the bubble

Yes, but you're justifying it based on his play in the bubble. Neither version is smart, but yours is certainly stranger.

Huh? He played really well in the bubble, and he kept playing well last season when he wasn't bothered by injuries, had a 50 pt game, bunch of 30+ games, averaged over 20 pts and shot almost 41% for 3 and so on, what's actually strange is this need to focus on how to haggle a few millions here and there.

[HartfordWhalers]

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Just bumping this for the info here.

[SmartWentCrazy]

Most seemed to dislike this deal for Denver due to the injury risk. Guessing that FO would love a mulligan right now.

[Prospect Dong]

Yeah, this is exactly the sort of risk Denver left themselves on the hook for, and why I hated this decision at the time. Maybe it still works out fine, but you have to treat the extension decision differently from the free agency decision, and Denver doesn't seem to want to...

[Mickey8]

Its not just history of the injuries , he's unproven as the player for that amount of money, that contract is ridiculous .

[JRoy]

Rough for DEN. Hopefully he can come back strong but there’s a reason he dropped in the draft despite his potential.

[gom]

I like this deal for Denver. This kid is a great player. His injury history is terrible, but they knew this and are likely to have insured this deal. If not, then caveat emptor, but the Nuggets are a smart team. They've done their homework and know MPJ's condition better than everyone. And, yes, they probably knew about his current status too. This deal isn't for this season.

[Laimbeer]

I mean, it's not a steal even if he was perfectly healthy. The injury history makes it really tricky.