Jordan v Lebron - A civilised conversation

[falcolombardi]

I find the ongoing discrediting of award winners to be somewhat distasteful. Maybe MJ shouldn't have won and maybe Hakeem or Mark Eaton should've. Maybe Michael Cooper should've won again. The work done by squared2020 certainly suggests Cooper had a good case: https://squared2020.com/1987-88-nba-rapm/

I don't believe in the idea that only big men can win DPOY and everyone else should just be effectively disqualified. You're generalizing to a degree that's leaving you open for significant bias. At the very least, all these winners were terrific defenders in the years they won and deserved to be in the discussion.

i am not saying jordan was not an elite defender in 88, but if we are being real about dpoy being the most valuable defender it should have been hakeem or eaton
before him

is why i dont see the argument thst jordan won a dpoy so he is a better defender than lebron too convincing, lebron has 2 second places, he probably didnt deserve them over Marc gasol and howard but neither did Jordan over eaton or hakeem

Did you look at the website I linked? That guy took the time to go through 80s game film to calculate stint data for 88 and has 1100 defensive possessions for Hakeem and 1300 defensive possessions for Eaton which yielded negative DRAPM for both guys. I'm the first guy to say take that with a big grain of salt but we can at least say that the sss line up data doesn't support either of those guys. And again, I'm not saying they shouldn't have won (I didn't watch enough games and we don't have enough data for that) but it seems premature to say they should've won just because they're bigs who blocked a lot of shots.

Also, I don't think Jordan was a better defender than Lebron because he won DPOY. I think he was better because he had a higher defensive usage and was more consistent throughout the year.

i dont have a issue with people preffering Jordan defensively, but rather with using the dpoy as a indisputable argument for it

specially because lebron got 2nd twice so is not like he was not a player who was not considered dpoy worthy by voters if that is the reasoning

there is also the era to consider, jordan dpoy came in the time when guards and wings dominated dpoy voting more than bigs, while after the 90's thw trend reversed

almost all the eye test or plus minus data we have simce the 50's support's that bigs are the most important defensive position and in the 21th century this is reflected by dpoy voting, but it was almost the inverse in the 80's with so many perimeter players winning it

i find it hard to imagine perimeter players at the time were that much better than before or after, or the game was so different that perimeter defense was as valuable or more than center defense

which is what makes me think it was easier for a guard or wing to win the award in that era because of voters bias

[VanWest82]

i dont have a issue with people preffering Jordan defensively, but rather with using the dpoy as a indisputable argument for it

specially because lebron got 2nd twice so is not like he was not a player who was not considered dpoy worthy by voters if that is the reasoning

I think Lebron deserved all his dpoy votes and accolades. At his best he's a terrific defender and on the same level as prime MJ imo. They've different players. MJ was a better man defender but Lebron was more versatile. MJ had the higher motor. Lebron was/is smarter about not playing very hard when he doesn't absolutely have to and then going full tilt in big moments. I think MJ had more high caliber defensive seasons despite the shorter career.

[falcolombardi]

i dont have a issue with people preffering Jordan defensively, but rather with using the dpoy as a indisputable argument for it

specially because lebron got 2nd twice so is not like he was not a player who was not considered dpoy worthy by voters if that is the reasoning

I think Lebron deserved all his dpoy votes and accolades. At his best he's a terrific defender and on the same level as prime MJ imo. They've different players. MJ was a better man defender but Lebron was more versatile. MJ had the higher motor. Lebron was/is smarter about not playing very hard when he doesn't absolutely have to and then going full tilt in big moments. I think MJ had more high caliber defensive seasons despite the shorter career.

no issue with that, just as í comments, has a issue with using the dpoy as a shut down argument that sometimes happens

to me it would be like someone bringing up that duncan never won a dpoy as a shut down argument in a garnett vs duncan defensive comparision

[VanWest82]

there is also the era to consider, jordan dpoy came in the time when guards and wings dominated dpoy voting more than bigs, while after the 90's thw trend reversed

almost all the eye test or plus minus data we have simce the 50's support's that bigs are the most important defensive position and in the 21th century this is reflected by dpoy voting, but it was almost the inverse in the 80's with so many perimeter players winning it

i find it hard to imagine perimeter players at the time were that much better than before or after, or the game was so different that perimeter defense was as valuable or more than center defense

which is what makes me think it was easier for a guard or wing to win the award in that era because of voters bias

I think part of the reason for it was the league went through a transition in the 80s with guys like Magic, Bird, Isiah, MJ, Clyde, Chuck, KJ, King, Dantley, English, etc., so even though the league was actually slowing down the explosion of offensive perimeter talent was unlike anything longtime fans/followers of the game had seen before. Who were the guys guarding those guys? Sure big guys came over and blocked their shots sometimes but guys like Squid and Cooper were right there front and center making life harder for stars.

So yes, there was (unconscious) voter bias; or more accurately a lack of sophisticated understanding of all the ways different player types impact defense. But I tend to think the guard winners in the 80s did have a bigger impact than their counterparts do today because of the rules in place at the time (illegal defense, hand checking) as well as that combination of explosion of perimeter talent with the way the game was still played in an antiquated manner. Different eras require different points of emphasis. In conclusion, I think they got it a little bit wrong rather than missed the boat completely.

[VanWest82]

lebron in 2018 shot 42% of his field goals inside 3 feet, 1998 jordan shot 22% of his field goals inside 3 feet but has a higher free throw rate

you are basically saying that jordan jumpers outside thw paint drew more free throws than lebron shots in the restricted area, not exactly disproving my point that lebron gets a bad whistle in the paint

This is way too simplistic. For one, MJ drew more fouls in total (not just shooting) because he was a better one on one player than Lebron even in 98. Some of those would've been in the penalty. I believe there were more foul calls in general back then due to congestion of bodies inside the arc and liberties taken with hand checking. MJ was also much smarter at drawing fouls using the threat of his jumper. This worked because opponents were terrified of Mike shooting whereas the book on Lebron is to make him shoot and if/when he does get inside don't foul him because he's strong enough to finish through contact. Also, even though MJ was athletically diminished in 98 he was still an envious leaper which led to more guys getting into his space just by virtue of him being in the air a split second longer. He took advantage of that his entire career - it's amazing he didn't get hurt more.

But mainly, where's the actual evidence? I'm open to the idea that Mike got a superstar call here or there at the end of his run. Where are the montages of Lebron getting hacked into oblivion and not getting calls? When I watch Lakers games I don't see it. I don't remember him getting disrespected by the refs in Cleveland either. Shaq took flagrant fouls that were called as regular fouls. Mostly guys don't foul Lebron anymore because he's not beating them off the dribble as much.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Jordan has had defensive lapses otherwise noone he has guarded would've ever scored, but he's never had a bad defensive series like this one by Lebron.

The below video by Thinking Basketball, which I think there was a thread on here a while ago, shows some examples of Jordan's defensive lapses, but is picking over a large sample spread, over many years.

Watch on YouTube

The guy who made the video of MJ's strengths and weaknesses rates Lebron's defense in at least 5 of his seasons as better than Jordan's very best season on defense.

Could you provide a link to that?

You have to become a Patreon of Thinking Basketball to view the valuations. He has a link to it, in the description of the video, if you are interested.

The closest thing I can show you as proof is in his Backpicks top 40 released back in 2018, he says- "In total, Jordan is the only comparable perimeter peak in history, although James’s defense was slightly more impressive at its apex. "

https://backpicks.com/2018/04/05/backpicks-goat-3-lebron-james/

[LukaTheGOAT]

Kobe and Lebron playoff numbers between 08-10 against the same matchups.

Spoiler:

Lebron vs the Celtics in 2008

26.7 pts (48 TS%), 7.6 assists, 6.4 rebounds

GameScore-17.5

Kobe Bryant vs the Celtics in 2008

25.7 pts (50.5 TS%), 5 assists, and 4.7 rebounds

GameScore-16.4


Lebron vs Magic in 2009

38.5 pts (59.1 TS%), 8 assists, 8.3 rebounds

GameScore-29.3

Kobe vs Magic in 2009

32.4 pts (52.5 TS%), 7.4 assists, 5.6 rebounds

GameScore-22.8



Lebron vs the Celtics in 2010 (*Note elbow injury)

26.8 pts (55.6 TS%), 7.2 assists, 9.3 rebounds

GameScore-22

Kobe Bryant vs the Celtics in 2010

28.6 pts (52.8 TS%), 3.9 assists, 8 rebounds

GameScore-18.7

Larry Bird vs. Lakers in 85 Finals

23.8 pts (52.7% TS), 5.0 assists, 8.8 rebounds

GameScore-19.6

Alex English vs. Lakers in 85 WCF

30.3 pts (57.3% TS), 4.3 assists, 6.5 rebounds

GameScore-22.3

Alex English > Larry Bird as a #1 option on a title team. Who knew?


Patrick Ewing vs. Bulls in 92 playoffs

22.1 pts (52.4% TS), 2.4 assists, 11.1 rebounds

GameScore-15.9

Brad Daugherty vs. Bulls in 92 playoffs

17.7 pts (55.4% TS), 4.2 assists, 10.2 rebounds

GameScore-15.7

Brad Daugherty was the same tier player as Patrick Ewing!


Dirk Nowitzki vs. Suns in 06 playoffs

28.0 pts (57.7% TS), 3.5 assists, 13.2 rebounds

GameScore-24.3

Elton Brand vs. Suns in 06 playoffs

30.9 pts (62.8% TS), 4.3 assists, 10.4 rebounds

GameScore-28.7

I always knew Elton was better than prime Dirk!!

...

Needless to say, I'm not a fan of the way you're using individual stats vs. common opponents void of any/all context. What would Kobe's stats have looked like if he had the ball in his hands 90% of the time like Lebron? But honestly who cares because that wasn't even the point. The Celtics weren't trying to force Kobe into taking jumpers because he couldn't shoot. If anything they were trapping him to get the ball out of his hands because they were terrified of him shooting (which he did anyway because he's insane. Kobe was barely a #1 caliber guy on a title team). You can't just use individual stats to hand wave away Lebron's (self-professed) offensive deficiencies pre-2012.

You say use context in another post (but whether due to not knowing or refusing to acknowledge) that Larry Bird injured his hand ina bar fight in 1985 and much worse because of it

https://www.celticslife.com/2012/08/thanks-mike-harlow-for-blowing-1985.html?m=0

"Did Larry punch him and if so, with what hand? Bird shot 46 percent in the ’85 playoffs. In his other two MVP seasons (84 and 86), when the Celtics won the championship, he shot 52 percent each year. However after that apparent incident, the final 8 games of the playoffs, Bird shot just 40 percent (63-156). Is this why the Celtics couldn't win it all in 1985?"

Read on Twitter

?lang=en

You picked 1 single series to compare players, while I picked 3 mutual teams Kobe and Lebron faced between 08-10. In a much larger sample size, Lebron comes out looking better. And as I mentioned, they both played 13 games in 2 PS against the Celtics, so the matchups were close. I am pretty sure the point differential actually shows the Cavs were more competitive than the Lakers against the Celtics, but don't quote me on that.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Okay, looking at PS rDRTG (so looking at the relative change of the offenses they went up against from regular season (RS) to postseason (PS).

The 2018 Warriors were a -7.9. Jordan played 2 teams that were comparable, the 88 Pistons (-8.1) and the 90 Pistons (-8.3).

Lebron vs the 2018 Warriors (with a damaged hand after game 1)

34 pts (62 TS%), 10 assists, and 8.5 rebounds

GameScore-28.3

Jordan vs the 1988 Pistons

27.4 pts (54.9TS%), 4.6 assists, and 8.8 rebounds.

GameScore-20.4

Jordan vs the 1990 Pistons

32.1 pts (56.6TS%), 6.3 assists, and 7.1 rebounds

GameScore-24.8

The 88-90 Pistons trapped and double teamed (and assaulted) MJ to get the ball out of his hands which limited his stats. Warriors largely guarded Lebron straight up with Iggy as the primary defender. Lebron also did that with a (mostly) wide open floor and no bigs protecting the basket. He didn't have to account for not only interior defenders but his own guys clogging up the lanes looking for post entries. I hate how we've arrived at a place where we're not even attempting to account for context. It's just individual stats and nothing else.

It just looked like physical basketball to me. The reason why Jordan didn't win those year is because he was too physically weak.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I find the ongoing discrediting of award winners to be somewhat distasteful. Maybe MJ shouldn't have won and maybe Hakeem or Mark Eaton should've. Maybe Michael Cooper should've won again. The work done by squared2020 certainly suggests Cooper had a good case: https://squared2020.com/1987-88-nba-rapm/

I don't believe in the idea that only big men can win DPOY and everyone else should just be effectively disqualified. You're generalizing to a degree that's leaving you open for significant bias. At the very least, all these winners were terrific defenders in the years they won and deserved to be in the discussion.

i am not saying jordan was not an elite defender in 88, but if we are being real about dpoy being the most valuable defender it should have been hakeem or eaton
before him

is why i dont see the argument thst jordan won a dpoy so he is a better defender than lebron too convincing, lebron has 2 second places, he probably didnt deserve them over Marc gasol and howard but neither did Jordan over eaton or hakeem

Did you look at the website I linked? That guy took the time to go through 80s game film to calculate stint data for 88 and has 1100 defensive possessions for Hakeem and 1300 defensive possessions for Eaton which yielded negative DRAPM for both guys. I'm the first guy to say take that with a big grain of salt but we can at least say that the sss line up data doesn't support either of those guys. And again, I'm not saying they shouldn't have won (I didn't watch enough games and we don't have enough data for that) but it seems premature to say they should've won just because they're bigs who blocked a lot of shots and we know both to have excellent reputations.

Also, I don't think Jordan was a better defender than Lebron because he won DPOY. I think he was better because he had a higher defensive usage and was more consistent throughout the year.

"Currently I have logged 189 of a possible 943 games, which is a mere 20.0% completion."

So basically, he tried to calculate RAPM with about a 20% of the total sample size. RAPM is not going to be able to measure anything accurate without the introduction of the box-score (and then it isn't RAPM). That is literally 1/5 of the season.

[LukaTheGOAT]

sure, but they didnt give him a undeserved dpoy over a much more impactful big man like they did for jordan

jordan winning the 88 DPOY over hakeem and Mark eaton is at least as bad as if lebron won dpoy over howard in 2009

is why i dont give much weight to that dpoy in a defense comparision

I find the ongoing discrediting of award winners to be somewhat distasteful. Maybe MJ shouldn't have won and maybe Hakeem or Mark Eaton should've. Maybe Michael Cooper should've won again. The work done by squared2020 certainly suggests Cooper had a good case and that neither MJ, Dream, or Eaton really did: https://squared2020.com/1987-88-nba-rapm/

I don't believe in the idea that only big men can win DPOY and everyone else should just be effectively disqualified. You're generalizing to a degree that's leaving you open for significant bias. At the very least, all these winners were terrific defenders in the years they won and deserved to be in the discussion.

Defensive Numbers

88 Hakeem

D-PIPM: 3.67
D-RAPTOR: 5.08
DPR: 23.45

88 Jordan

D-PIPM: 2.21 (Best defensive season per metric)
D-RAPTOR: 3.68 (Best defensive season per metric)
DPR: 22.60 (Best defensive season per metric)

[VanWest82]

You say use context in another post (but whether due to not knowing or refusing to acknowledge) that Larry Bird injured his hand ina bar fight in 1985 and much worse because of it...

You picked 1 single series to compare players, while I picked 3 mutual teams Kobe and Lebron faced between 08-10. In a much larger sample size, Lebron comes out looking better. And as I mentioned, they both played 13 games in 2 PS against the Celtics, so the matchups were close. I am pretty sure the point differential actually shows the Cavs were more competitive than the Lakers against the Celtics, but don't quote me on that.

The whole point of my post was to help illustrate that you can't do this analysis like that. You showing me my analysis is flawed just helps prove my point. It doesn't matter whether you're doing it with one series or three (only two teams fundamentally but whatever).
And this is all just deflection from my initial objection anyway.

If you wanted to illustrate that Lebron was better than say Paul George and for whatever reason I was pushing back hard on it, then this kind of crass method would work because you don't really need to understand much beyond the fact that there's a massive gap in their broad numbers/impact vs. common opponents. I think this debate is a little more nuanced. It's hard to know exactly when a guy is a legit #1 championship caliber player. Individual stats don't give you enough and comparing them to someone else's individual stats who you think was probably that guy isn't enough either. Look at Wilt for an extreme example. You have to actually look at their games, their strengths and weaknesses, and how teams play them. Or like I said earlier in the thread just listen to them talk about it.

[VanWest82]

Defensive Numbers

88 Hakeem

D-PIPM: 3.67
D-RAPTOR: 5.08
DPR: 23.45

88 Jordan

D-PIPM: 2.21 (Best defensive season per metric)
D-RAPTOR: 3.68 (Best defensive season per metric)
DPR: 22.60 (Best defensive season per metric)

I don't know what DPR is. D-RAPTOR is basically useless pre-tracking, pre-plus/minus. D-PIPM is useless pre-97 (assuming it actually incorporates plus/minus). We don't have line up data for that period. I have no idea how anyone could possibly calculate plus/minus without plus/minus outside of maybe regressing box stats with plus/minus for the years we have it in which case what's the point?? As we've discussed before, I put zero credibility in these. At least with square2020's RAPM we actually have something to go on even though it's extremely sss. If you look through his other years it's surprising how accurate it seems to be for certain guys even though there are issues with team weightings.

[VanWest82]

It just looked like physical basketball to me. The reason why Jordan didn't win those year is because he was too physically weak.

No the reason he didn't win those years is because he had no help. Pistons doubled and trapped him to get the ball out of his hands to force the other Bulls to beat them and they couldn't. Also, Scottie not playing in both close out games in 89 & 90 didn't help.

[LukaTheGOAT]

You say use context in another post (but whether due to not knowing or refusing to acknowledge) that Larry Bird injured his hand ina bar fight in 1985 and much worse because of it...

You picked 1 single series to compare players, while I picked 3 mutual teams Kobe and Lebron faced between 08-10. In a much larger sample size, Lebron comes out looking better. And as I mentioned, they both played 13 games in 2 PS against the Celtics, so the matchups were close. I am pretty sure the point differential actually shows the Cavs were more competitive than the Lakers against the Celtics, but don't quote me on that.

The whole point of my post was to help illustrate that you can't do this analysis like that. You showing me my analysis is flawed just helps prove my point. It doesn't matter whether you're doing it with one series or three (only two teams fundamentally but whatever).
And this is all just deflection from my initial objection anyway.

If you wanted to illustrate that Lebron was better than say Paul George and for whatever reason I was pushing back hard on it, then this kind of crass method would work because you don't really need to understand much beyond the fact that there's a massive gap in their broad numbers/impact vs. common opponents. I think this debate is a little more nuanced. It's hard to know exactly when a guy is a legit #1 championship caliber player. Individual stats don't give you enough and comparing them to someone else's individual stats who you think was probably that guy isn't enough either. Look at Wilt for an extreme example. You have to actually look at their games, their strengths and weaknesses, and how teams play them. Or like I said earlier in the thread just listen to them talk about it.

And the context is the series were extremely competitive and Lebron outpeformed Kobe when you include defense.

[LukaTheGOAT]

It just looked like physical basketball to me. The reason why Jordan didn't win those year is because he was too physically weak.

No the reason he didn't win those years is because he had no help. Pistons doubled and trapped him to get the ball out of his hands to force the other Bulls to beat them and they couldn't. Also, Scottie not playing in both close out games in 89 & 90 didn't help.

Nope, MJ kept adding muscle each year, because he knew it was too weak for the Pistons.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Defensive Numbers

88 Hakeem

D-PIPM: 3.67
D-RAPTOR: 5.08
DPR: 23.45

88 Jordan

D-PIPM: 2.21 (Best defensive season per metric)
D-RAPTOR: 3.68 (Best defensive season per metric)
DPR: 22.60 (Best defensive season per metric)

I don't know what DPR is. D-RAPTOR is basically useless pre-tracking, pre-plus/minus. D-PIPM is useless pre-97 (assuming it actually incorporates plus/minus). We don't have line up data for that period. I have no idea how anyone could possibly calculate plus/minus without plus/minus outside of maybe regressing box stats with plus/minus for the years we have it in which case what's the point?? As we've discussed before, I put zero credibility in these. At least with square2020's RAPM we actually have something to go on even though it's extremely sss. If you look through his other years it's surprising how accurate it seems to be for certain guys even though there are issues with team weightings.

You say these metrics are useless, despite having 82 games plus complete playoff data.

Square2020 only had 20% of a season, and it is more reliable based off "you sniff test."

Lol, he has less than 5 times the total data to work with.

[VanWest82]

You say these metrics are useless, despite having 82 games plus complete playoff data.

Square2020 only had 20% of a season, and it is more reliable based off "you sniff test."

Lol, he has less than 5 times the total data to work with.

Forgive my ignorance, are you saying D-PIPM is based on actual line up stint data from the 80s? Like the founder of the stat got access to all that film and went through each game to calculate it?

[VanWest82]

And the context is the series were extremely competitive and Lebron outpeformed Kobe when you include defense.

Other context to consider:

1. different roles
2. played in different systems
3. different opposing game plans
4. different offensive game plans
5. players don't play the same possession to possession let alone game to game or series to series.
6. injuries
7. teammates
8. added load of making it to Finals vs. only making it to ECSF or ECF
9. player strengths and weaknesses
10. specific match ups
Etc.

[Cavsfansince84]

It just looked like physical basketball to me. The reason why Jordan didn't win those year is because he was too physically weak.

No the reason he didn't win those years is because he had no help. Pistons doubled and trapped him to get the ball out of his hands to force the other Bulls to beat them and they couldn't. Also, Scottie not playing in both close out games in 89 & 90 didn't help.

Scottie played in game 7 in 1990. He just shot terribly. I just watched that game and I wouldn't say they were really forcing the ball out of MJ's hands that much. Obviously they weren't giving him much room in the paint. The Pistons just outplayed the Bulls. MJ was good but not really great and Aguirre got hot in the 2nd and then Isiah in the 3rd which was enough to get them the win. I will say the Bulls offense seemed to flow a lot better in 1990 compared to 89 when comparing those two series.

[VanWest82]

It just looked like physical basketball to me. The reason why Jordan didn't win those year is because he was too physically weak.

No the reason he didn't win those years is because he had no help. Pistons doubled and trapped him to get the ball out of his hands to force the other Bulls to beat them and they couldn't. Also, Scottie not playing in both close out games in 89 & 90 didn't help.

Scottie played in game 7 in 1990. He just shot terribly. I just watched that game and I wouldn't say they were really forcing the ball out of MJ's hands that much. Obviously they weren't giving him much room in the paint. The Pistons just outplayed the Bulls. MJ was good but not really great and Aguirre got hot in the 2nd and then Isiah in the 3rd which was enough to get them the win. I will say the Bulls offense seemed to flow a lot better in 1990 compared to 89 when comparing those two series.

Figure of speech haha. They probably wished he didn't play. But yeah giving Scottie the ball in 90 definitely helped with his development and therefore the team's. Unfortunately he still came unglued at times in the playoffs...as was his way. Horace going 3-17 didn't help either. Seems relevant.