Wizenheimer wrote:Roy The Natural wrote:
I agree with Simmons being good... but there's some misinformation in here. Simmons sucks at guarding the 5, and isn't a good rim protector or interior help defender. He's a premiere perimeter defender though. People really don't actually understand who Simmons is on defense. He's not Draymond. He's really really good, but he doesn't provide the level of versatility defensively that Draymond did at his peak and if you're expecting that, you're going to be wildly disappointed. Simply put, Simmons is a really good defender, but not a defensive anchor.
I also think your PPP measurements are missing the mark here. Ben Simmons efficiency is in part due to his limited FGAs. He quite simply at his current skillset doesn't have the capability to scale that efficiency up.
I would argue that it's more likely that CJ will stay in that 58% TS range going forward than regress to his career norms. The same range that Simmons resides in due to his subpar finishing ability on drives (52.4%). CJs increase in efficiency was pretty much entirely sustainable and a direct result of increasing the volume his of 3pa.
Another thing that people don't understand about Simmons is that it isn't just that he doesn't shoot, it's that he plain isn't good in general in the halfcourt. He's a subpar finisher when driving to the basket, and doesn't shoot. He's amazing in the fast-break where his speed and size take over, but in the halfcourt he lacks touch and isn't quite agile or creative enough to be a high-level half-court player on offense, to this point.
I do agree with you that the Blazers should be adding to a CJ/Simmons swap, and I'm fine with doing so. Primarily due to fit/roster balance. However, Ben Simmons has no metrics showing him as this wildly impactful player, and if you assume no progression going forward from him (I do), then he's firmly in the CJ range when it comes to impact on the court.
However, much like CJ in Portland, Simmons in Philadelphia is just a terrible fit roster balance wise. It just doesn't work.
I'm not going to agree with your evaluation of Simmons' defense, but that's a debate without a lot of foundation. Overall, I think Simmons is better than RoCo as a defender, but more importantly, the two of them, with Nurkic and Nance would really upgrade the level of Portland's defense
as far as points/shot and scoring efficiency, CJ has hit the .580 mark once in his career....5 years ago. The only reason last year's mark was as high as it was is because he missed 1/3 of the season. His TS% in the last 35 games of the year was actually a little worse than his norms. And in 6 playoff games, his TS% was under 52%. Expecting him to maintain a clip of around 58% when he hasn't done it for 5 seasons seems unrealistic.
meanwhile, Simmons has topped the 58% mark in TS for 3 straight seasons. It's true he doesn't chuck up as many shots as CJ but the Blazers should not be trading for Simmons to make him a league leader in FGA's. He should be getting about 12-14 shots a game, at most. I'd also think the PnR with Dame & Simmons could be deadly
as for FG% on "drives", that's lacking a lot of context. What is the definition and what is the league average? How many drives of his result in FT's or assists?
I do know that for his career, Simmons has shot 71.6% on FGA at the rim (0-3') and 41.1% on FGA from 3'-10'. For comparison, Nurkic has shot 60% at the rim and 39% in the 3-10' zone. Kanter has shot 66% at the rim and 43% in the 3'10' zone. In other words, Simmons is more efficient in the paint than either Nurkic or Kanter so I'm not buying he's average on drives
You should buy his average on drives. I've watched Simmons A TON. He's not a good finisher in reality. He's fine getting you some fastbreak finishes to bring that number up, but he much like Nurk tries to finesse his way into layups and doesn't have great touch. The stat comes straight from NBA.com. Looking at overall shots at the rim is going to have just as many obvious issues as not fully knowing the context on drives.
You're defense argument is a big strawman. Covington is MUCH better as an interior help defender... and much worse on the perimeter. Depends on what you're looking for. In the modern NBA, Simmons has more value as a top perimeter option, but Simmons is absolute garbage playing the role of rim protector or shot deterrer.
All I'm saying, is that Simmons isn't quite who a lot of people think he is. He's a really good player, but he's far more limited than what many would have you believe and he's not, "great at everything but shooting." His deficiencies go far beyond just shooting and that's very important to note. He's frankly not a good player in general in the halfcourt and lacks the necessary tools to be much better than he currently is there without major leaps forward in areas that he's shown no growth in since LSU.
His defense is really good and interestingly important. He would be a dynamite fit with the current roster defensively in place of a guy like CJ. But he's not an anchor, and his impact is primarily limited to the perimeter. Ben Simmons is very good, but he's more Iguodala then a true high-end star. He's just not as dynamic of a player as many on here imply he is.
That being said, many of his strengths fit the Blazers well enough to be a big deal.
