The 1972 Boston Celtics (#25) @ The 1974 Milwaukee Bucks (#8)
Overall:
Record: ‘74 Bucks, 59 wins (11th) > '72 Celtics, 56 wins (16th)
RSRS: ‘74 Bucks, +7.61 (8th) > '72 Celtics, +4.38 (20th)
PSRS: ‘74 Bucks, +8.70 (8th) > '72 Celtics, +1.38 (33rd)
When the '72 Celtics have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '72 Celtics’ offense vs '74 Bucks' defense:
Regular Season: +1.4 Offensive Rating (22nd) vs -4.1 Defensive Rating (10th): -2.7 expected
Playoffs: +2.3 Offensive Rating (16th) vs -3.0 Defensive Rating (17th): -0.7 expected
Lineup:
PG: Jo Jo White, 24.8% SS on -3.3% rTS, 19.9 / 4.8 / 4.6
SG: Don Chaney, 16.4% SS on +2.1% rTS, 10.2 / 4.3 / 2.2
SF: John Havlicek, 24.8% SS on +0.8% rTS, 23.7 / 7.1 / 6.5
PF: Don Nelson, 20.2% SS on +5.7% rTS, 11.9 / 4.7 / 2.0
C: Dave Cowens, 19.1% SS on +0.5% rTS, 16.2 / 13.1 / 2.7
When the '74 Bucks have Possession:
Overall Comparison, '74 Bucks' offense vs '72 Celtics' defense:
Regular Season: +3.5 Offensive Rating (8th) vs -2.7 Defensive Rating (21st): +0.8 expected
Playoffs: +5.1 Offensive Rating (6th) vs +1.7 Defensive Rating (34th): -6.8 expected
Lineup:
PG: Oscar Robertson, 16.9% SS on -0.1% rTS, 12.0 / 3.8 / 6.1 / 1.1: +1.8 playoff OBPM
SG: Jon McGlocklin, 18.1% SS on -0.2% rTS, 8.7 / 1.7 / 2.9 / 0.6: -0.2 playoff OBPM
SF: Bob Dandridge, 23.5% SS on +3.2% rTS, 17.9 / 6.4 / 2.7 / 2.1: +1.4 playoff OBPM
PF: Cornell Warner, 13.4% SS on +5.0% rTS, 6.0 / 5.4 / 0.9 / 0.9: -2.1 playoff OBPM
C: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 26.0% SS on +6.1% rTS, 25.6 / 13.8 / 4.6 / 4.6: +8.3 playoff OBPM
6th: Ron Williams, 17.7% SS on +2.2% rTS, 6.0 / 0.9 / 2.1 / 0.7: -1.0 playoff OBPM
Thoughts:
- Injuries: Jon McGlocklin misses Game 5 for Milwaukee.
- Boston was pretty good in 1972. They had the best record and SRS in the East, but the 5th highest SRS in the league; all the top teams in ‘72 were in the West. And in the first round they whipped the poor Atlanta Hawks (-1.94 RSRS) pretty soundly. But in the Eastern Conference Finals they got absolutely stomped by the ‘72 Knicks, by 8.6 points a game. The Celtics’ offense held up okay, but their defense was riddled, with Walt Frazier and Bill Bradley posting strong series. This series is a fair concern; the ‘72 Knicks were good but they weren’t *that* good. But if there’s good news, it’s that the team they’re facing here, the ‘74 Bucks, is pretty much a one-man band. Oscar at this point was a shadow of himself, Bob Dandridge was good but not great and Lucius Allen was out for the playoffs. The evenly dominant attack of the ‘71 and ‘72 Bucks had gone; it was now Kareem in all his glory leading the Bucks. And they fell, barely, to the ‘74 Celtics. The Celtics hounded the Bucks’ guards with a full court press and shut down every Buck not named Kareem. And it worked. So here’s the question: do we have any reason to think that the ‘72 Celtics couldn’t reach victory the exact same way?
- The ‘74 Bucks were simply better than the ‘72 Celtics. Their regular season was far more dominant (in a less watered-down year) and their playoffs were far more dominant. And they had by far the best player in the league in Kareem. The years where he could be shut down in the playoffs were pretty much over. He vaporized Clifford Ray in the Conference Finals and averaged a 33/12/5 against Dave Cowens in the Finals. I’ll grant you that the Bucks lost to the Celtics. But the ‘74 Celtics were a different animal. Both versions of the Celtics played the Knicks one year away from their ‘73 championship. In ‘72 the Knicks’ offense ran right through the Celtics. In ‘74 the Knicks’ offense got completely shut down (minus Frazier, of course). I submit to you that the ‘72 Celtics were still too green, and that it is unreasonable to expect that the ‘72 Celtics could play defense against the Bucks as the ‘74 Celtics did. After all, if the ‘72 Celtics could play defense on that level, they probably wouldn’t have been wrecked by the Knicks.
- So it comes down to the fact that the Bucks are matching up against another version of the team that beat them. So, really, the question is how comparable the ‘72 Celtics are to the ‘74 Celtics, and how we think that should change the matchup. Obviously the ‘74 Bucks are favored here . . . but I think that a discussion can be had.
I’m going to put this up for 48 hours, unless I need to keep it open for a tie-breaker.
Post with who you would pick to win this series, ideally with the number of games. And if you have any insight into these players or matchups beyond what is above please don't hesitate to post; the goal (as always) is for us all to walk away with more knowledge than we started with. We always have more to learn!
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