2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation

[bwgood77]

Here is the writeup on the Suns in The Athletic rankings:

8. Phoenix Suns (Previously 3rd), 2-3, -6.0 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss to Kings, Win over Cavs

Over the previous three seasons, Devin Booker averaged 26.8 points on 48.0 percent from the field, 34.0 percent from 3-point range and 88.6 percent from the free-throw line on 6.7 attempts per game. So when the Phoenix Suns guard starts out the season at 21.5 points on shooting splits of 41.6/28.6/87.5, then you’re going to wonder why the dip in efficiency and scoring? Trae Young has posited that the rule changes have affected him, as well as others. He doesn’t typically start out slow, and his free-throw attempts are down from 5.9 last year to 4.8 this early season. Is it the free throws? Or maybe is he just not making shots he’d normally make? His shot profile looks pretty much the same as last year. He’s just not finishing at the rim (down 21.7 percentage points) and he’s not making midrange jumpers (down 5.2 percentage points). Sure, he could get a couple more points at the line, but we’re just waiting for him to be the shot maker we know him to be.

Why did they drop a tier? Going into the season, I had them right on the border between Contender and Brink of Contention. Usually, my philosophy is if I have to think about it, then it’s a no. I decided to give the Suns more respect than that. Struggling out the gate, they’re down to Brink of Contention for now.

[Blonde]

I wouldn’t look any further into this besides Jalen Smith is still not any good and doesn’t deserve any minutes on a contending team. Why have him on the roster when he can’t outplay Kaminsky who is on a minimum deal. The upside was never there when trying to play him at PF which was clearly not his natural position. No sense in compounding the mistakes from draft day by keeping a guy who you don’t believe in anymore.

As a general rule, DO NOT SPEND LOTTERY PICKS ON BIGS, especially when you already have your franchise big.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Here is the writeup on the Suns in The Athletic rankings:

8. Phoenix Suns (Previously 3rd), 2-3, -6.0 net rating
Weekly slate: Loss to Kings, Win over Cavs

Over the previous three seasons, Devin Booker averaged 26.8 points on 48.0 percent from the field, 34.0 percent from 3-point range and 88.6 percent from the free-throw line on 6.7 attempts per game. So when the Phoenix Suns guard starts out the season at 21.5 points on shooting splits of 41.6/28.6/87.5, then you’re going to wonder why the dip in efficiency and scoring? Trae Young has posited that the rule changes have affected him, as well as others. He doesn’t typically start out slow, and his free-throw attempts are down from 5.9 last year to 4.8 this early season. Is it the free throws? Or maybe is he just not making shots he’d normally make? His shot profile looks pretty much the same as last year. He’s just not finishing at the rim (down 21.7 percentage points) and he’s not making midrange jumpers (down 5.2 percentage points). Sure, he could get a couple more points at the line, but we’re just waiting for him to be the shot maker we know him to be.

Why did they drop a tier? Going into the season, I had them right on the border between Contender and Brink of Contention. Usually, my philosophy is if I have to think about it, then it’s a no. I decided to give the Suns more respect than that. Struggling out the gate, they’re down to Brink of Contention for now.

Interesting read. I'm sure that it'll change significantly for the better once we really get things rolling and get into a better rythym. I personally have us in the 4-6 range as the playoffs roll around. What's going to be worse for us is the broad perception of our franchise due to Saver being such a detriment as well as the likely growing perception as to our apparent lack of commitment and undervaluing of our players. As well as the speculation that'll arise from these fiascos as to whether we're truly willing to field a contender and pay the tax ( do what's necessary to win). I'd be wildly surprised if these factors didn't portray us as a free agent pariah amongst the players and agents around the league as they just sit back and watch this front office ****show continue to unfold under Saver.

[darealjuice]

Nobody is.
The situation is pretty gd similar I'd say though. We need to cough up 5 million USD to create a true contender to get one more player.
We refuse to do it.
5.million.fng.dollars.for.a.contender. but noooo

I'm confused, Jalen Smith makes us a true contender? If not, this move gives us a roster spot to replace him next year.

I don't like the move either, I just don't think cutting short a scrub's rookie deal is comparable to short changing a significant piece of a championship-level team.

Well we didn't know we were a championship level team when we didn't extend JJ. He was coming off a poor shooting season. He played a lot but we had just signed Nash and Q to big contracts (similar to signing CP3, Bridges, Shamet, Payne) so we didn't extend him over $5 million. It feels like you are thinking of the summer after the WCF, not our summer after our 28 win season.

Does it really matter which offseason lowball we're talking about? They're just not similar. Jalen Smith has looked like a fish out of water nearly every time he's touched the floor. Everyone knew Joe Johnson was going to be a good player regardless of percentages in a blow up season. It's not like his play was the reason that team won 28 games, they dumped Marbury and had rookie Barbosa running point half the year lol. This is closer to trimming the fat, even if I think it should have been done better.

[bwgood77]

I'm confused, Jalen Smith makes us a true contender? If not, this move gives us a roster spot to replace him next year.

I don't like the move either, I just don't think cutting short a scrub's rookie deal is comparable to short changing a significant piece of a championship-level team.

Well we didn't know we were a championship level team when we didn't extend JJ. He was coming off a poor shooting season. He played a lot but we had just signed Nash and Q to big contracts (similar to signing CP3, Bridges, Shamet, Payne) so we didn't extend him over $5 million. It feels like you are thinking of the summer after the WCF, not our summer after our 28 win season.

Does it really matter which offseason lowball we're talking about? They're just not similar. Jalen Smith has looked like a fish out of water nearly every time he's touched the floor. Everyone knew Joe Johnson was going to be a good player regardless of percentages in a blow up season. It's not like his play was the reason that team won 28 games, they dumped Marbury and had rookie Barbosa running point half the year lol. This is closer to trimming the fat, even if I think it should have been done better.

I agree. But JJ had gotten 3 years..his rookie year was very bad too. Anyway, I think it's a little early to give up on a guy after 1 season..a shortened COVID season at that...a guy that you were apparently really high on. But if you think he's a bust, then yeah, consider it a sunk cost.

I do agree that given the luxury tax savings on cutting him it makes sense, given that he likely cost a heck of a lot more than that $4.7 million, especially given the Shamet deal and if we decide to keep Ayton.

I do think, however, that it is dumb in general you have to pick up an option on a guy for the next year 5 games into the previous year. Doesn't make much sense to me. Seems like you should have until the following summer, at least right before or after the draft.

Anyway, I did think there was a good chance they would try to trade Saric and I even mentioned Crowder because they will be deeper into the tax than I thought given the Shamet deal, so I can definitely understand Monty wanting to keep Saric. Though I do think they would have preferred to keep Smith and would have if we were not going to be in the tax, but given the financial implications it's just too costly.

I won't be surprised if he ends up a decent player though. For example, Toppin barely got minutes last year, like 8 minutes a game despite supposedly being one of the most ready guys, but Randle just played so many minutes and they couldn't play together. He didn't look good with so few minutes. But now with more minutes he is looking a lot better.

[Saberestar]

His salary for next season would be $4.7M, not that cheap so I understand the move if the FO really think that James Jones can get a better player for that money.

Sure it could be used better. But if they knew it all the way, why didn't they trade him this summer and add somebody?
Hell, I wouldn't have cared if we gave away a 2nd rounder with him to add a Tucker/Craig/Green/Millsap/Monk/Bjelica to the roster.
Why piss away a year? Why put yourself 2 inches away from contendering when you were 1 inch away from it to begin with?

Jake Fischer has nailed every rumor this offseason and he said late in the summer that Jalen Smith was in trade conversations around the league.

So we tried to trade him but he probably didn't have any value. Teams can get a player like him for the minimum salary.

[Puff]

We have surely crapped the bed with our draft picks.

I guess they have no hope for Smith ever being a contributor in the NBA. Yet they love Monty's boy Shamet. He has basically sucked this season and we signed him to a long term contract.

Did we just get very lucky last year because of all the injuries to our competition?

Yes the sky is falling. Does anyone really have any confidence in James Jones decisions at this point?

[darealjuice]

I agree. But JJ had gotten 3 years..his rookie year was very bad too. Anyway, I think it's a little early to give up on a guy after 1 season..a shortened COVID season at that...a guy that you were apparently really high on. But if you think he's a bust, then yeah, consider it a sunk cost.

I do agree that given the luxury tax savings on cutting him it makes sense, given that he likely cost a heck of a lot more than that $4.7 million, especially given the Shamet deal and if we decide to keep Ayton.

I do think, however, that it is dumb in general you have to pick up an option on a guy for the next year 5 games into the previous year. Doesn't make much sense to me. Seems like you should have until the following summer, at least right before or after the draft.

Anyway, I did think there was a good chance they would try to trade Saric and I even mentioned Crowder because they will be deeper into the tax than I thought given the Shamet deal, so I can definitely understand Monty wanting to keep Saric. Though I do think they would have preferred to keep Smith and would have if we were not going to be in the tax, but given the financial implications it's just too costly.

I won't be surprised if he ends up a decent player though. For example, Toppin barely got minutes last year, like 8 minutes a game despite supposedly being one of the most ready guys, but Randle just played so many minutes and they couldn't play together. He didn't look good with so few minutes. But now with more minutes he is looking a lot better.

Trust me, I agree that essentially giving up on a guy you felt compelled to draft 10th overall in a deep draft less than a year after you drafted him is stupid. I have never been a big Jalen Smith fan despite rooting/hoping for him to succeed as a Sun, but I'm very surprised they feel like they've gathered enough information on him to conclude that a 3rd year wasn't worth it, especially considering we miscast him as a power forward the entire time.

[Blonde]

We have surely crapped the bed with our draft picks.

I guess they have no hope for Smith ever being a contributor in the NBA. Yet they love Monty's boy Shamet. He has basically sucked this season and we signed him to a long term contract.

Did we just get very lucky last year because of all the injuries to our competition?

Yes the sky is falling. Does anyone really have any confidence in James Jones decisions at this point?

I think most still have confidence in Jones’ ability to build a contender, but his moves around the margins to get us to that point have been questionable at best. We should be in a much better position asset wise compared to where we are at now. We still have all our future picks after this year which no other contender can say.

[lilfishi22]

His salary for next season would be $4.7M, not that cheap so I understand the move if the FO really think that James Jones can get a better player for that money.

This is my take as well. You can't really say, we made a mistake in the same sentence as Sarver is cheap. If Sarver "isn't cheap" and keeps Smith on board then we are holding onto a $4.6m mistake. If we're admitting the mistake and declining the team option then it's not really a financial matter.

[Blonde]

Personally, I would have kept Smith for his 3rd year (even though I’ve called him a bust since day 1) and used him to aggregate salary for a big trade. Something involving Siakam or Jerami Grant has been my preferred upgrade for a while now. Still possible to do without Smith but getting the numbers there is not as clean.

[lilfishi22]

We have surely crapped the bed with our draft picks.

I guess they have no hope for Smith ever being a contributor in the NBA. Yet they love Monty's boy Shamet. He has basically sucked this season and we signed him to a long term contract.

Did we just get very lucky last year because of all the injuries to our competition?

Yes the sky is falling. Does anyone really have any confidence in James Jones decisions at this point?

The worry now is whether we'll pay Cam his worth when he's up for an extension next off season or if we'll see him in RFA. He's really the one Jones pick that has worked out well for us so I hope we don't flub this one

[lilfishi22]

Personally, I would have kept Smith for his 3rd year (even though I’ve called him a bust since day 1) and used him to aggregate salary for a big trade. Something involving Siakam or Jerami Grant has been my preferred upgrade for a while now. Still possible to do without Smith but getting the numbers there is not as clean.

That's a good point although I'd imagine they had gone down that path this offseason, found no takers and a trade is probably unlikely further down the road. You don't hold onto $5m in deadweight on a team hitting the luxury tax and an owner with a reputation for being cheap on a very small chance a deal might be available. Not to mention the roster spot he was taking.

Personally, I didn't mind him on the team but when you throw in the roster spot, the $5m and the thought that we could have a vet in that position....I get it

[bigfoot]

Well declining Jalen's option seems to imply he won't play at all (or very much) for the rest of the season. He's gotta be trade bait, after all, he's a $4.5M expiring contract. Come December 14th, McGee, Nadar, Payton, and Kaminsky can all be included in trades. They are expiring contracts too.

Something is brewing and it's gonna be about 90 days before we hear anything.

[GoodBehavior]

We have surely crapped the bed with our draft picks.

I guess they have no hope for Smith ever being a contributor in the NBA. Yet they love Monty's boy Shamet. He has basically sucked this season and we signed him to a long term contract.

Did we just get very lucky last year because of all the injuries to our competition?

Yes the sky is falling. Does anyone really have any confidence in James Jones decisions at this point?

I am one of the few posters who disagree with the majority, regarding the performance of "executive of the year JJ" and Monty (I include Monty in the discussion, you can't separate the head coach with an executive IMO). Chris Paul's signing and Ayton's playoff performance masked some troubling decisions. The Suns lucked into the CP sweepstake, CP forced his way out of OKC and NY was the only other viable option. I suspect he picked Phoenix because of proximity to family. Without Chris Paul, this team would be saddled with Rubio and Oubre. I severely doubt we would have broke 0.500 ball. I think JJ and Monty would be in the hot seat had the CP trade not gone down.

Ayton going HAM in the playoff let JJ off the inexcusable excuse of not addressing the big man "gaping hole." I think had we had some better than Frank the Tank, we might have won the championship. Saric going down was a bigger issue than people think.

I was an early fan of the JJ/Monty. I still buy into the culture thing but things like draft, player development, coaching decision, etc. makes my head hurt. The season is still young, and there's so much talent here, so I think we can grind ourselves into a meaningful contention. But long term ...

[bwgood77]

Well declining Jalen's option seems to imply he won't play at all (or very much) for the rest of the season. He's gotta be trade bait, after all, he's a $4.5M expiring contract. Come December 14th, McGee, Nadar, Payton, and Kaminsky can all be included in trades. They are expiring contracts too.

Something is brewing and it's gonna be about 90 days before we hear anything.

It's possible someone wants him for cap relief, but that would imply we are taking on long term salary, or at least salary into next year, which I think we only do if we trade a major player, which I think is unlikely.

Those guys don't have much value. POSSIBLY if a team needs a big, McGee or a PG, Payton, but I doubt we trade either without getting one back, particularly McGee after convincing him to come to Phx.

But expiring minimums or near minimums don't do much in a trade. It's not like we can trade out 4-5 players..no team has that many roster spots unless they send a similar # of players back.

We likely declined because he saves us a lot more money next year than his salary due to tax savings. We are not going to trade expirings for more salary next year.

[lilfishi22]

Well declining Jalen's option seems to imply he won't play at all (or very much) for the rest of the season. He's gotta be trade bait, after all, he's a $4.5M expiring contract. Come December 14th, McGee, Nadar, Payton, and Kaminsky can all be included in trades. They are expiring contracts too.

Something is brewing and it's gonna be about 90 days before we hear anything.

It's possible someone wants him for cap relief, but that would imply we are taking on long term salary, or at least salary into next year, which I think we only do if we trade a major player, which I think is unlikely.

Those guys don't have much value. POSSIBLY if a team needs a big, McGee or a PG, Payton, but I doubt we trade either without getting one back, particularly McGee after convincing him to come to Phx.

But expiring minimums or near minimums don't do much in a trade. It's not like we can trade out 4-5 players..no team has that many roster spots unless they send a similar # of players back.

We likely declined because he saves us a lot more money next year than his salary due to tax savings. We are not going to trade expirings for more salary next year.

I think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute. I don't know much about the negotiation that went into the Shamet deal but that $11m sort of came out of nowhere so it doesn't feel to me like we were adamant about not taking on future salaries in light of our forthcoming tax situation. If we were super worried and adamant about not taking on future salaries, we could have waited the season and revaluated next off season whether to commit to a long term deal with Shamet.

I think it's really just as simple as we didn't want to spend that five million bucks on a guy that wasn't likely to contribute.

[bwgood77]

Well declining Jalen's option seems to imply he won't play at all (or very much) for the rest of the season. He's gotta be trade bait, after all, he's a $4.5M expiring contract. Come December 14th, McGee, Nadar, Payton, and Kaminsky can all be included in trades. They are expiring contracts too.

Something is brewing and it's gonna be about 90 days before we hear anything.

It's possible someone wants him for cap relief, but that would imply we are taking on long term salary, or at least salary into next year, which I think we only do if we trade a major player, which I think is unlikely.

Those guys don't have much value. POSSIBLY if a team needs a big, McGee or a PG, Payton, but I doubt we trade either without getting one back, particularly McGee after convincing him to come to Phx.

But expiring minimums or near minimums don't do much in a trade. It's not like we can trade out 4-5 players..no team has that many roster spots unless they send a similar # of players back.

We likely declined because he saves us a lot more money next year than his salary due to tax savings. We are not going to trade expirings for more salary next year.

I think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute. I don't know much about the negotiation that went into the Shamet deal but that $11m sort of came out of nowhere so it doesn't feel to me like we were adamant about not taking on future salaries in light of our forthcoming tax situation. If we were super worried and adamant about not taking on future salaries, we could have waited the season and revaluated next off season whether to commit to a long term deal with Shamet.

I think it's really just as simple as we didn't want to spend that five million bucks on a guy that wasn't likely to contribute.

It's not $5 million though it's like $15 million or something like that. As we sit we are currently so far into the tax if we give Ayton a big deal that we ill be playing like $3 per $1 of salary after a certain point. I've demonstrated it before and reasoned we might try and dump Saric or Crowder. From that respect it makes sense, but I seriously doubt we add to salary next year...at least not much more than we have to.

This guy kind of explains it well..the savings for Smith...but the same would work for another player, and add even more tax if it is more...but a minimum guy instead of Smith saves like $3 million which could save around $11 million in taxes.

So any salary we add just triple that or more when you consider the tax. If we add another $10 million it's probably like $30 million unless we send a big contract out.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2134101&start=20#p94469310

[lilfishi22]

It's possible someone wants him for cap relief, but that would imply we are taking on long term salary, or at least salary into next year, which I think we only do if we trade a major player, which I think is unlikely.

Those guys don't have much value. POSSIBLY if a team needs a big, McGee or a PG, Payton, but I doubt we trade either without getting one back, particularly McGee after convincing him to come to Phx.

But expiring minimums or near minimums don't do much in a trade. It's not like we can trade out 4-5 players..no team has that many roster spots unless they send a similar # of players back.

We likely declined because he saves us a lot more money next year than his salary due to tax savings. We are not going to trade expirings for more salary next year.

I think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute. I don't know much about the negotiation that went into the Shamet deal but that $11m sort of came out of nowhere so it doesn't feel to me like we were adamant about not taking on future salaries in light of our forthcoming tax situation. If we were super worried and adamant about not taking on future salaries, we could have waited the season and revaluated next off season whether to commit to a long term deal with Shamet.

I think it's really just as simple as we didn't want to spend that five million bucks on a guy that wasn't likely to contribute.

It's not $5 million though it's like $15 million or something like that. As we sit we are currently so far into the tax if we give Ayton a big deal that we ill be playing like $3 per $1 of salary after a certain point. I've demonstrated it before and reasoned we might try and dump Saric or Crowder. From that respect it makes sense, but I seriously doubt we add to salary next year...at least not much more than we have to.

This guy kind of explains it well..the savings for Smith...but the same would work for another player, and add even more tax if it is more...but a minimum guy instead of Smith saves like $3 million which could save around $11 million in taxes.

So any salary we add just triple that or more when you consider the tax. If we add another $10 million it's probably like $30 million unless we send a big contract out.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2134101&start=20#p94469310

Yes, I understand the implications of going into the luxury tax extends further than the nominal $5m amount tied to Smith's contract. I was just highlighting that declining Smith's option doesn't mean we're definitively not going to take on longer term deals. For example, we could move Smith in a package that could bring back a guy on less than the $5m for multiple years. The main thing is that they don't want to pay *Smith* that kind of money but doesn't preclude us from looking at someone else for that amount or less if they can contribute. The immediate issue is that they don't foresee Smith being a contributor so the decision making process was fairly simple: save salary, save tax, save roster spot.

[Frank Lee]

Over-thinking 101


Smith just isn’t worth 4+ mill a yr… to anybody. Virtually untradable with a that guarantee. Sure, mistake 1 was drafting him over Halliburton or 3-4 others.

No point in beating that to death, but also no point to chase bad money with good. Who knows, he could ink up a min deal next yr here… or somewhere… or overseas. And he is more valuable in trade land as an expiring.


Nothing to see here folks, keep moving