2022 NBA Draft

[TraBuch]

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I’m sure 4:55 really impressed the 39 scouts there.

[God Squad]

Happens every year almost where somebody here calls the top pick before mainstream media gets wind of how obvious it is. So im tuned in to see how this plays out this time.

Yeah Smith fits the bill for early top pick. But I can also see Ivey and Brown pushing top 5-7.

[clyde21]

this Zaga-Bellarmine game is useless

this Zaga team doesn't seem to have the same IT factor tho it had with Suggs/Kispert last yr, even tho Strawther is filling that Kispert role nicely.

[TraBuch]

AJ Griffin starting to get his legs back and build his confidence. Back to back step back 3’s.

[DCasey91]

AJ Griffin starting to get his legs back and build his confidence. Back to back step back 3’s.

Hasn’t left my top ten at all. Dude just needs reps and game time. Plays good for the year he’s definitely in the top 5 imo.

2 way wing with legit skill and polish with a big physical frame won’t drop far. Only weak point was his low release point but that’s pretty much the only flaw besides his obvious injury history.

Him and Duren are very much underrated now.

[DCasey91]

Watch on YouTube

I’m sure 4:55 really impressed the 39 scouts there.

PBJ might be one of the overrated ones in this years draft. Not a lot of wiggle in his game, his shooting is off and I have my suspicion he’d be of a more role type player on a bigger College team.

Rich Man’s Kuzma?

[TraBuch]

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[clyde21]

AJ doesn't look 6-7 to me but maybe im trippin

[DCasey91]

He probably is with shoes on, does crouch to look “shorter/smaller” as all good players do. He looks huge though which he is. His game has both the finesse and power to it. I’ve been high on him since day dot.

Watch the rebounds in particular and the pull up at about 40 secs in. That will translate pretty comfortably.

He’ll be bigger than Butler in due time it’s just a matter of skill.

100+ kilo SF’s that play like a guard with the requisite class stuff don’t drop in a draft.

Both him and Jimmy have the low knee running trait (they don’t run with high knees up) but rely on it because they are powerfully strong off the mark and have such good body/core control. He’s a stud

[remi_222]

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[WargamesX]

Keegan Murray is having a pretty ridiculous start to his season

It can’t be sustainable… but imagine if it was

[reanimator]

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I like him more longterm than Caleb Houstan.

[The-Power]

So I have watched a bunch of film these days and my first impression is that this draft looks fairly pedestrian or even weak in the lottery. Especially at the top I have a hard time seeing players who have the potential to turn a franchise around, but of course it's early days still.

Banchero – I like him, he looks like a fine player but I don't see a true number on pick. He has good size, solid athleticism and combines that with a good – for his size – shooting touch and some passing skills. But in order to be a special player, I'd have to see him either be able to create more on the ball (to be a Point Forward type) or be a great interior defender (to be a mismatch at Center). Neither seems very likely. His on-ball creation is limited by having neither great handles nor particularly great explosion or wiggle, and his interior defense looks more like what you would expect of an average PF. I also haven't seen the kind of consistent hustle I would like to see.

Holmgren – Count me as one of his skeptics. I see the appeal of an incredible long guy who moves fluidly and is skilled, but I just don't trust these kind of guys to be elite NBA players when they can be exploited. For Chet, his frame is an issue and the way he can be pushed around even by a number of Guards in college – and the frequency with which he's falling onto the floor – has me concerned. If he gets eaten alive by Centers in the NBA, then what kind of mismatch can he create versus 4s? His skill-level when he isn't a 5 isn't all that special, and if regular 4s can keep him out of the paint and off the glass, then his impact will necessarily be limited. He's an interesting prospect and I haven't made up my mind yet on him as I need to see more, but I fear that he'll be the next proclaimed unicorn that will not live up to the hype that the great flashes will inevitably create.

Smith – I watched him a bit but not nearly enough. At first glance, he looked like the most interesting (US) prospect in the draft but even with him I'm not yet sure what type of player he can be that would be a true franchise player. I think he can be a really good offensive player who thrives on exploiting mismatches and feeds off the attention of an elite shot creator but what would be his path to being a great offensive player? He shows flashes in all areas, which is awesome, but what would he be able to truly dominate with? On defense, I like him but once again, I see a good but not great defender at this point. In order to be elite I'd like to see more interior dominance, for which he lacks some size and athleticism, or an elite switch defender, for which he appears a bit stiff to me (not that he is stiff for his size, but compared to the elite switch defenders in the league). Still, a very good prospect obviously and I've liked what I've seen so far.

Duren – He's a great college player because he can physically dominate much of his competition but I'm skeptical about his upside. If he had an awesome motor I'd be higher on him but besides his desire to dominate the paint when he's around, his motor is a bit iffy and he doesn't run the floor as well as I'd expect. He's super explosive but a bit stiff when he needs to change directions, so I believe his defensive impact is going to be mostly coming from his interior defense which is good but he doesn't have the physical profile that I believe will allow him to just physically dominate everyone in his vicinity (although he obviously has great length and a mature body). So we're talking strictly about a 5 who is awesome when in position to challenge the shot but is likely to be much more limited when dragged out of the paint (which obviously happens in the modern NBA). On offense, he seems like a player you want to roll to the basket or be in the dunker's spot but not do much else as his skill-set is fairly limited in all aspects. In other words, I'd project him to be in the role usually occupied by an energy big. That's not nothing but nothing exciting either.

Baldwin Jr – I have only seen one full game of his, versus Florida, but that was thoroughly disappointing. He's a skilled big but there are some serious red flags. First, his college decision suggests a rather uncompetitive nature where he looks to get his and be in a comfort zone. Second, I have seen nothing on the court to suggest that he is a fierce competitor who really wants to win. On the contrary, he has shown some very lazy habits and lack of effort. Third, he is athletically limited and at times looks like he is running in water. Considering that he's not otherworldly skilled, I'm not sure what his path to being a great NBA player looks like. He can be solid if he puts in the effort though, I imagine (which is not a given, however).

Anyone else who has been talked about as a potential top 3 pick at one point or another? I haven't seen enough of Hardy to form an opinion but if he's a scorer first, second and third, he better project to be next level good at it and obviously he has struggled thus far against physically mature competition. Still, an explosive scoring Guard can be valuable in the NBA if one or two ancillary skills develop, so I'll take a close look at him over the course of the season.

I like Jaden Ivey ever since I watched him play for Team USA. He has a chance to climb really high on my board but he'll have to convince me that he can be an at least average shooter and playmaker. I'm skeptical about AJ Griffin at this point – I suspect he'd have to have a borderline elite shooting year to win me over.

I think Houstan is a really solid all-around player with a good-looking jump shot but nothing sticks out about him and he screams role player to me. I view Christie similarly who looks like he has more upside as a scorer but needs to show flashes in other areas for me to jump on the hype train.

Chandler looks like a good offensive player to me but he looked really bad on defense – and will be an obvious target in the NBA – and he doesn't seem to have the kind of deep pull-up game mixed with elite playmaking skills that would make me comfortable picking him very high in the draft. For PGs, I actually like JD Davison more at this point – if he proves to be able to make enough shots off the dribble, that is. Some of his reads and passes are really impressive (although he's not always the most accurate passer) and he knows how to make defenses shift with penetration and create good looks. He could develop into a really solid NBA PG.

Kendall Brown is an interesting prospect as well, he really looks like he jumps off a trampoline. I have no idea of what to make of him yet, though, with his refusal to shoot and my questions as to which role he could effectively fill at the next level. It'll definitely take me some more games to get an idea of what to make of him. I also like Diabate. He runs the floor well, provides energy and had some really strong possessions staying with smaller players. He's not a player that projects to have great upside, though, with his shooting deficiencies and without the size to play the 5 full time. As noted before, I also really like Keon Ellis as a role player at the next level – just to also mention one of the older guys and throw his name out there.

There are some other players I'll have to watch more on like Jović (who looked good when I watched him play international basketball but I had some concerns as well), Prkačin (who I liked last year and hope makes a jump this season), Dieng and Nzosa (haven't seen much of either) the G-League guys, some Sophomores that I didn't pay that much attention to last year (e.g. Murray, Mathurin) and some of the raw Freshmen with upside but thus far limited playing time.

Still, for the time being I'm not impressed by this draft. I hope that changes over the year but so far the top of the draft has a lot prospects with question marks and somewhat problematic archetypes in my eyes.

[clyde21]

yea, not a great draft overall. id say clearly worse than 2021 and close to 19 and 20, and 19/20 are probably deeper.

still early tho and things are very fluid. there are some intriguing guys no one is talking about that might make the draft more interesting if they put things together well see.

[GSWFan1994]

AJ doesn't look 6-7 to me but maybe im trippin

He doesn't look 6'7'' to me either (these Duke game's camera views are so confusing), but he seems strong and with a very good wingspan, so it's all good IMO.

I haven't been that much impressed by Banchero too... he seems good and definitely a top tier lottery prospect, but there's just something off about him IMO... I really can't put my finger on it at the moment.

I like Chet and Jabari Smith... very impressed by what I've saw of Smith, seems like the most promising player of the few I've studied so far.

Cheers Clyde.

[The-Power]

...

What would you say is the median outcome for the players in your first (and second) tier? And is there anyone you see as a (potential) franchise player?

[clyde21]

...

What would you say is the median outcome for the players in your first (and second) tier? And is there anyone you see as a (potential) franchise player?

tier 1 (Smith/Chet/Paolo) for me right now is low-end all star types, not perennial guys by any stretch, possibly 3rd best players on PO teams, but I think Chet/Paolo specifically have bigger questions than Smith in terms of either physical profile or being locked positionally.

only one I see as potential franchise guy possibly is Jabari but I'm not there with him at this point either.

[yoyoboy]

AJ Griffin definitely intrigues me, but I have yet to watch a full game. I just like the way he moves especially with that frame of his, and between those aspects and his footwork he really does give Jimmy Butler vibes at times.

He does play weirdly crouched down a lot. And he spreads his feet really far apart when shooting. I’d be interested to get an exact height measurement on him. I still have PTSD from Okoro allegedly being “6’6” lol.

I have no worries about him being able to play and guard SFs though, at least from a size perspective. I’m seeing his wingspan ranges from 7’0-7’2 depending on the source and he clearly has broad shoulders and good musculature.

[The-Power]

AJ Griffin definitely intrigues me, but I have yet to watch a full game. I just like the way he moves especially with that frame of his, and between those aspects and his footwork he really does give Jimmy Butler vibes at times.

But what skills does he have? Genuinely asking. I haven't seen a lot of him but I just didn't see much skill besides maybe the potential as a shooter if last game was any indication (which I'm not sure it really was). Maybe he simply couldn't showcase it yet?

[retrobro90]

Purdue is a blast to watch. Ivey's passing ability off a live dribble after he's created the advantage looks very translatable. If the J is real then he could be a legit PG prospect with size. I think Edey is getting wrongfully dismissed as a novelty because he's so massive. See a lot of stuff that won't show up in the stat sheet. Very good sealing/screening etc. Gotten an unfair whistle a couple times now just because he's such a tough cover when he's posted up.