Our Defense Has Fallen Off a Cliff

[SFour]

I think Nurse needs to switch up his defensive gameplan.....teams around the league have figured out the scramble defense at this point, they know how to get open corner 3s at will against the Raptors

[ruckus]

I think Nurse needs to switch up his defensive gameplan.....teams around the league have figured out the scramble defense at this point, they know how to get open corner 3s at will against the Raptors

This may have some merit.

First 10 games, open+wide open 3 point attempts accounted for 36.6% of the opponents field goals.

Last 8 games, open+wide open 3 point attempts accounted for 41.3% of the opponents field goals.

So, it can be offenses adjusting or the defense not being as crisp as it was early in the season.

In terms of quality of opponent, during the 1st 10 games, opponents were making their open+wide open 3's at 35.1%. During the last 8, it's increased significantly to 41.8%.

Overall, during this recent stretch, teams are taking more open+wide open 3's and making them at a higher clip.

[NirvanaFC]

Nah this hasn’t been a fluke. We’ve been just bad. We have missed OG that’s for sure, but it can’t be this much. I mean we’ve been about the worst in the league the last 7 or so.

That last extra pass playing Against the GSW KiLLED us. Siakam and Barnes were late every single time, over helping in the post.

I remember one time we were doubling Draymond in the post!!

[HiJiNX]

Guys, if we stop doubling then we stop getting deflections and steals. So it’s kind of a pick your poison.

But nobody was complaining on our win streak, with the same scheme that was shutting people down. Even Cleveland we shut down except for Garland who abused FVV and Rubio who abused Banton.

When the scheme works it’s incredible. When it doesn’t it’s awful. It’s very high variance. If we were to change the scheme we would likely have a very mediocre defence anyway given our lack of size inside. I think this is the way it has to be unless we obtain more size. Let’s just hope the players master it sooner rather than later.

[Gold Dragon]

Teams get wide open corner 3s against us like clockwork. This needs to be fixed, we are in a 3 point era, can't be allowing wide open 3s all game, they are like layups these days. Wiggins was just living in that corner last game.

It reminds me of the game we had vs rockets a few years back were scrubs on the rockets torched us via corner Threes over and over again. Rivers jr mclamore etc. It's tough to watch sometimes

This last game against the warriors was very similar to that rockets game where we doubled harden every time he touched the ball and basically had the rest of the team play 3 on 4 basketball until one of the doublers could get back into the play. It is an aggressive strategy to completely take out one player in the other team and seeing how well your other guys can recover short handed. And I remember it almost worked at one point against Houston.

The “box and one” - ish scheme we use on Curry doesn’t quite commit the double as much as that Houston game. But it commits Fred to Curry and effectively takes Fred out of all our defensive rotations. It probably would work better with OG around. But having Barnes and Trent trying to figure out zone concepts and the nuances of off ball D against a high quality ball movement O is a pretty dicey risk right now if we were going all out trying to win that one game. But longer term it is an important experience for them. They are much better on ball defenders at this stage of the game than off ball.

A lot of Barnes’ mistakes in the first half of the GSW game were more basic than that though and guys were just walking into the paint at will against him. Then our other guys had to rotate leading to a wide open man. Maybe there was just too many things he was thinking about. He seemed to clean it up in the 2nd half.

[Indeed]

Guys, if we stop doubling then we stop getting deflections and steals. So it’s kind of a pick your poison.

But nobody was complaining on our win streak, with the same scheme that was shutting people down. Even Cleveland we shut down except for Garland who abused FVV and Rubio who abused Banton.

When the scheme works it’s incredible. When it doesn’t it’s awful. It’s very high variance. If we were to change the scheme we would likely have a very mediocre defence anyway given our lack of size inside. I think this is the way it has to be unless we obtain more size. Let’s just hope the players master it sooner rather than later.

Wasn't it Trent who also got abused?
From the last 2 mins report:
https://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0022100127&eventNum=2127
- Birch cut off driving lane for no reason, OG rotate over to tag and leave wide open 3
https://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0022100127&eventNum=2134
- Went the wrong way for a clear path

[DelAbbot]

Guys, if we stop doubling then we stop getting deflections and steals. So it’s kind of a pick your poison.

But nobody was complaining on our win streak, with the same scheme that was shutting people down. Even Cleveland we shut down except for Garland who abused FVV and Rubio who abused Banton.

When the scheme works it’s incredible. When it doesn’t it’s awful. It’s very high variance. If we were to change the scheme we would likely have a very mediocre defence anyway given our lack of size inside. I think this is the way it has to be unless we obtain more size. Let’s just hope the players master it sooner rather than later.

Wasn't it Trent who also got abused?
From the last 2 mins report:
https://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0022100127&eventNum=2127
- Birch cut off driving lane for no reason, OG rotate over to tag and leave wide open 3
https://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0022100127&eventNum=2134
- Went the wrong way for a clear path

but GTJ leads the league in deflections and is top 5 in steals! he must be a good defender!

[Wannabe MEP]

In the first 5 games, we looked like top 10 defensively - by the eye test it was due to Achiuwa being at centre.

Problem with this argument is that the team has played appreciably worse on defense in the last few games both with Achiuwa on the court and when he's on the bench.

Defensive rating with Achiuwa ON:

• First 9 games: 102.5 (214 minutes)
• Last 9 games: 109.6 (151 minutes)

Defensive rating with Achiuwa OFF:

• First 9 games: 98.7 (218 minutes)
• Last 9 games: 119.6 (281 minutes)

I don't buy the argument that it's injuries and lack of lineup continuity that caused our defense to fall off a cliff. We had more injuries in 2019/2020 season before Covid and we had "next man up" and kept up the defense.

You don't think lack of continuity combined with youth/inexperience has anything to do with it? E.g., perhaps lineup inconsistency affects Marc Gasol and Kyle Lowry less than it affects Scottie Barnes and Precious Achiuwa?

[HumbleRen]

Read on Twitter

[refshateRaps]

Clearly the effort in a few players has gone down since Pascals return

Not sure why so drastic tho

[GLF]

In the first 5 games, we looked like top 10 defensively - by the eye test it was due to Achiuwa being at centre.

Problem with this argument is that the team has played appreciably worse on defense in the last few games both with Achiuwa on the court and when he's on the bench.

Defensive rating with Achiuwa ON:

• First 9 games: 102.5 (214 minutes)
• Last 9 games: 109.6 (151 minutes)

Defensive rating with Achiuwa OFF:

• First 9 games: 98.7 (218 minutes)
• Last 9 games: 119.6 (281 minutes)

I don't buy the argument that it's injuries and lack of lineup continuity that caused our defense to fall off a cliff. We had more injuries in 2019/2020 season before Covid and we had "next man up" and kept up the defense.

You don't think lack of continuity combined with youth/inexperience has anything to do with it? E.g., perhaps lineup inconsistency affects Marc Gasol and Kyle Lowry less than it affects Scottie Barnes and Precious Achiuwa?

It's still not great but in the last 9 games with Precious on it's 109.6 and with Precious off it's 119.6. That's a 10 point difference. That's pretty significant to me. Precious isn't a good offensive player by any means but the defence is definitely better when he's on the floor. At least lately.

[HiJiNX]

Guys, if we stop doubling then we stop getting deflections and steals. So it’s kind of a pick your poison.

But nobody was complaining on our win streak, with the same scheme that was shutting people down. Even Cleveland we shut down except for Garland who abused FVV and Rubio who abused Banton.

When the scheme works it’s incredible. When it doesn’t it’s awful. It’s very high variance. If we were to change the scheme we would likely have a very mediocre defence anyway given our lack of size inside. I think this is the way it has to be unless we obtain more size. Let’s just hope the players master it sooner rather than later.

Wasn't it Trent who also got abused?
From the last 2 mins report:
https://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0022100127&eventNum=2127
- Birch cut off driving lane for no reason, OG rotate over to tag and leave wide open 3
https://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0022100127&eventNum=2134
- Went the wrong way for a clear path

I’m not sure what I’m supposed to be seeing here. The first was a missed shot from Osman after Barnes defended the pnr penetration and Trent Jr. caught up to the play after initially losing Garland in space and the second was a tie up (which might have actually been a travel). Both were caused because Trent Jr. didn’t give up on the play. So the initial defence did it’s job. But those are also just two plays. Go back and watch the whole second half and see who Cleveland was targeting (FVV and Birch).

FVV can’t stay with fast guards. At all. This game isn’t the only example. Maxey also abused FVV with numerous clear blow bys. FVV just doesn’t have the athletic attributes to deal with those guys. It actually makes me worried for our matchup with Morant tomorrow, especially if Morant is making shots.

[DelAbbot]

Read on Twitter

what's the joke/punchline?

[Wannabe MEP]

In the first 5 games, we looked like top 10 defensively - by the eye test it was due to Achiuwa being at centre.

Problem with this argument is that the team has played appreciably worse on defense in the last few games both with Achiuwa on the court and when he's on the bench.

Defensive rating with Achiuwa ON:

• First 9 games: 102.5 (214 minutes)
• Last 9 games: 109.6 (151 minutes)

Defensive rating with Achiuwa OFF:

• First 9 games: 98.7 (218 minutes)
• Last 9 games: 119.6 (281 minutes)

I don't buy the argument that it's injuries and lack of lineup continuity that caused our defense to fall off a cliff. We had more injuries in 2019/2020 season before Covid and we had "next man up" and kept up the defense.

You don't think lack of continuity combined with youth/inexperience has anything to do with it? E.g., perhaps lineup inconsistency affects Marc Gasol and Kyle Lowry less than it affects Scottie Barnes and Precious Achiuwa?

It's still not great but in the last 9 games with Precious on it's 109.6 and with Precious off it's 119.6. That's a 10 point difference. That's pretty significant to me. Precious isn't a good offensive player by any means but the defence is definitely better when he's on the floor. At least lately.

I mean...sure. But this is a huge problem that has nothing to do with Achiuwa:

Defensive rating with Birch ON:

• First 9 games: 98.8 (208 minutes)
• Last 9 games: 123.7 (136 minutes)

Birch didn't go from being awesome at defense to terrible at defense all of a sudden. There are clearly other things at play besides *not enough Achiuwa*.

[HiJiNX]

Problem with this argument is that the team has played appreciably worse on defense in the last few games both with Achiuwa on the court and when he's on the bench.

Defensive rating with Achiuwa ON:

• First 9 games: 102.5 (214 minutes)
• Last 9 games: 109.6 (151 minutes)

Defensive rating with Achiuwa OFF:

• First 9 games: 98.7 (218 minutes)
• Last 9 games: 119.6 (281 minutes)

You don't think lack of continuity combined with youth/inexperience has anything to do with it? E.g., perhaps lineup inconsistency affects Marc Gasol and Kyle Lowry less than it affects Scottie Barnes and Precious Achiuwa?

It's still not great but in the last 9 games with Precious on it's 109.6 and with Precious off it's 119.6. That's a 10 point difference. That's pretty significant to me. Precious isn't a good offensive player by any means but the defence is definitely better when he's on the floor. At least lately.

I mean...sure. But this is a huge problem that has nothing to do with Achiuwa:

Defensive rating with Birch ON:

• First 9 games: 98.8 (208 minutes)
• Last 9 games: 123.7 (136 minutes)

Birch didn't go from being awesome at defense to terrible at defense all of a sudden. There are clearly other things at play besides *not enough Achiuwa*.

I think a lot of it is on Birch though. He can’t guard the pnr and I think what we are seeing is more teams are figuring that out.

[pingpongrac]

As others have said, variance (in who we play and three-point shooting as well as who has been available to suit up for us) is the biggest factor.

First 10 games:
- 81.9 FGA against
- opponents averaged 4.0 open 3FGM on 12.9 attempts (31%)
- opponents averaged 6.5 wide open 3FGM on 17.0 attempts (38%)
- 4 games against top 10 offences / 3 games against mid-tier offences / 3 games against bottom 10 offences

Last 8 games:
- 83.3 FGA against
- opponents averaged 5.9 open 3FGM on 15.5 attempts (38%)
- opponents averaged 8.5 wide open 3FGM on 18.9 attempts (43%)
- 4 games against top 10 offences / 3 games against mid-tier offences / 1 game against bottom 10 offences

So our opponents are attempting 4.5 more open threes per game and making almost all of those additional shots (4 more open 3FGM). It should also be noted we were generally playing low-volume three-point shooting teams to start the season (Chicago, Cleveland, Washington and Philadelphia are bottom 10 in 3FGA and averaging less than 35 per game) while we have been playing some high-volume three-point shooting teams as of late (Utah, Golden State and Portland are top 6 in 3FGA and averaging more than 39 per game).

I anticipate with the schedule easing up a bit we'll see a bit of a swing in the opposite direction. With the exception of Milwaukee/Brooklyn/NYK, we aren't facing many high-volume or good three-point shooting teams in the next 10 games. They are almost all middle of the pack in attempts and middle of the pack in percentage while Memphis is the only top 10 offence (10th).

[Wannabe MEP]

It's still not great but in the last 9 games with Precious on it's 109.6 and with Precious off it's 119.6. That's a 10 point difference. That's pretty significant to me. Precious isn't a good offensive player by any means but the defence is definitely better when he's on the floor. At least lately.

I mean...sure. But this is a huge problem that has nothing to do with Achiuwa:

Defensive rating with Birch ON:

• First 9 games: 98.8 (208 minutes)
• Last 9 games: 123.7 (136 minutes)

Birch didn't go from being awesome at defense to terrible at defense all of a sudden. There are clearly other things at play besides *not enough Achiuwa*.

I think a lot of it is on Birch though. He can’t guard the pnr and I think what we are seeing is more teams are figuring that out.

Perhaps (part of) the solution is the same, even if there are varying theories about the cause: return to combos that worked early in the season.

Starters: FVV-Trent-OG-Siakam-Achiuwa
Bench: Banton-____-Barnes-Boucher-Birch

Regardless of why these were working early season...they were working. Restore continuity and do stuff that works. The significant change is Siakam: he has to start, because max contract. It seems like this starting unit should do pretty well. And Barnes would get more touches and add value to the already successful Banton-Boucher-Birch combo. (Depending on match-ups, perhaps small-ball to close games/halves.)

[Indeed]

Guys, if we stop doubling then we stop getting deflections and steals. So it’s kind of a pick your poison.

But nobody was complaining on our win streak, with the same scheme that was shutting people down. Even Cleveland we shut down except for Garland who abused FVV and Rubio who abused Banton.

When the scheme works it’s incredible. When it doesn’t it’s awful. It’s very high variance. If we were to change the scheme we would likely have a very mediocre defence anyway given our lack of size inside. I think this is the way it has to be unless we obtain more size. Let’s just hope the players master it sooner rather than later.

Wasn't it Trent who also got abused?
From the last 2 mins report:
https://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0022100127&eventNum=2127
- Birch cut off driving lane for no reason, OG rotate over to tag and leave wide open 3
https://official.nba.com/last-two-minute-report/?gameNo=0022100127&eventNum=2134
- Went the wrong way for a clear path

I’m not sure what I’m supposed to be seeing here. The first was a missed shot from Osman after Barnes defended the pnr penetration and Trent Jr. caught up to the play after initially losing Garland in space and the second was a tie up (which might have actually been a travel). Both were caused because Trent Jr. didn’t give up on the play. So the initial defence did it’s job. But those are also just two plays. Go back and watch the whole second half and see who Cleveland was targeting (FVV and Birch).

FVV can’t stay with fast guards. At all. This game isn’t the only example. Maxey also abused FVV with numerous clear blow bys. FVV just doesn’t have the athletic attributes to deal with those guys. It actually makes me worried for our matchup with Morant tomorrow, especially if Morant is making shots.

Trent is as guilty as anyone. Both the 1st and 2nd video clearly showed Trent lost his man (no, it was not a PnR, there was no screen).

And you can see another example:
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=85&GameID=0022100127&Season=2021-22&flag=1&title=MISS%20Sexton%203%27%20Cutting%20Layup%20Shot&sct=plot

We are over aggressive, while we do not have a paint present against good ball penetration.

[d00lttle]

Read on Twitter

what's the joke/punchline?

Same, same but different.

[HiJiNX]

I mean...sure. But this is a huge problem that has nothing to do with Achiuwa:

Defensive rating with Birch ON:

• First 9 games: 98.8 (208 minutes)
• Last 9 games: 123.7 (136 minutes)

Birch didn't go from being awesome at defense to terrible at defense all of a sudden. There are clearly other things at play besides *not enough Achiuwa*.

I think a lot of it is on Birch though. He can’t guard the pnr and I think what we are seeing is more teams are figuring that out.

Perhaps (part of) the solution is the same, even if there are varying theories about the cause: return to combos that worked early in the season.

Starters: FVV-Trent-OG-Siakam-Achiuwa
Bench: Banton-____-Barnes-Boucher-Birch

Regardless of why these were working early season...they were working. Restore continuity and do stuff that works. The significant change is Siakam: he has to start, because max contract. It seems like this starting unit should do pretty well. And Barnes would get more touches and add value to the already successful Banton-Boucher-Birch combo. (Depending on match-ups, perhaps small-ball to close games/halves.)

I actually really like this idea. Birch and Siakam combo is atrocious on defence while the Birch/Boucher/Banton has been really good on D due to their length. I also like Barnes off the bench so he can play a more uptempo game and find his own shots with the bench while still being the glue in any minutes played with the starters.

I do like this idea indeed.