Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Depending on our roster I can see Herro averaging 25-30 within the next 2 years. As Jimmy and Lowry age I expect Herro and Bam to pick up the scoring load

[Wiltside]

Low key hoping Thad Young gets a buyout and comes this way. He'd be a nice upgrade in the frontcourt. Underrated player IMO.

[KingDavid]

BTW... ORTG-DRTG 17 games in, overall Herro isn't much better then Robinson even with Herro shooting great so far and Robinson shooting horribly so far, both bad defenders but Herro not as efficient as he should be because of TOs. Lowry has been a disappointment, at first he looked only to pass, but his offense just hasn't been good much like Robinson's year Miami is still 11-6 with those issues.

Code: Select all

Name            ORtg DRtg ORtg-DRtg
----            ---- ---- ---------
Jimmy Butler    131  103         28
P.J. Tucker     131  107         24
Dewayne Dedmon  121  102         19
Udonis Haslem   117  102         15
Bam Adebayo     112  101         11
Caleb Martin    106  101          5
Max Strus       109  106          3
Kyle Lowry      107  106          1
Tyler Herro     108  108          0
Gabe Vincent    109  109          0
Omer Yurtseven  105  107         -2
Duncan Robinson 103  106         -3
Markieff Morris 105  109         -4
KZ Okpala       97   107        -10
Marcus Garrett  93   111        -18

Thanks for doing this again, this is by far my favorite stat still. I think if Tyler were starting with Lowry or playing off the bench with a PG like Oladipo, he'd have WAY less turnovers as his responsibility would solely be on scoring. Wonder how his numbers are when next to Lowry.

Yea the difference in TOs is to be expected though. Robinson literally has 1 job and it’s to catch and shoot. Tyler is needed to be a 3 level scorer and playmaker so that’s not surprising at all.

I actually think when Dipo comes back if he’s still what he was then our closing lineup will be

Lowry
Dipo
Herro
Jimmy
Bam

With Tucker subbing in offense/defense with Herro when needed. If we’re up against Giannis/Durant this may change with Tucker closing over Dipo due to matchup reasons but I’m not sure.

Not sure about Jimmy playing the 4 to close lineups out. We'll suffer in getting critical rebounds. I thought Dipo's strength was with the ball and creating for others, not off the ball.

[KingDavid]

Depending on our roster I can see Herro averaging 25-30 within the next 2 years. As Jimmy and Lowry age I expect Herro and Bam to pick up the scoring load

His finishing at the basket and ability to draw fouls would have to significantly improve or else it won't be consistent...but that's coming for sure. For now, when his shot is off, he doesn't have any tools to get to the line yet.

[puppa bear]

Low key hoping Thad Young gets a buyout and comes this way. He'd be a nice upgrade in the frontcourt. Underrated player IMO.

Thad would have been the perfect pick-up back when Spo was still trying to force forwards into that Bron-lite role. Now that he’s coaching to the players more I think he wouldn’t be as successful here.

Having said that I’d still see him as a player worth getting if he gets bought out.

[AirP.]

19 games in, some interesting numbers/combos showing up from basketball-reference even though it's still not a lot of data at this point (probably not a good mix of good/bad defenses they're going against).

The 3-player combo on the court
Butler, Bam and Herro are -20.1 points per 100 possessions. (134 minutes this year)
4-man combo of
Butler, Bam, Herro and Robinson, they're -29.7 points per 100 possessions. (72 minutes this year)

Interesting enough, Lowry is not negative with all top 10 2-man combinations that bbref shows. Things are pointing towards Buter and Herro not working together very well(so far).

What works, what doesn't 5-man combos (built around the starting 5).
Starting 5
Lowry, Robinson, Butler, Tucker, Bam +9.6 (173 min)
Replace Lowry with Herro
Herro, Robinson, Butler, Tucker, Bam -23.7 (52 min)
Replace Butler with Herro
Lowry, Herro, Robinson, Tucker Bam +12.8 ((57 min)
Replace Robinson with Herro
Lowry, Herro, Butler, Tucker, Bam -26.2 (17 min)

[AirP.]

Updated ORTG-DRTG after 19 games.

Lowry is underperforming still but he showed decline in Toronto.
Herro has been dropping to the point of now being an overall negative but so far much better than his -9 his first 2 years.
Robinson has just been bad all year long.

So far, Miami is paying around 45 million for 2 nearly net 0 players in Lowry and Robinson.

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Name            ORtg DRtg ORtg-DRtg
----            ---- ---- ---------
Jimmy Butler    129  103         26
P.J. Tucker     130  107         23
Dewayne Dedmon  125  103         22
Udonis Haslem   116  102         14
Bam Adebayo     111  102          9
Caleb Martin    104  101          3
Max Strus       109  106          3
Kyle Lowry      106  105          1
Gabe Vincent    108  107          1
Tyler Herro     106  107         -1
Omer Yurtseven  105  107         -2
Duncan Robinson 103  106         -3
Markieff Morris 105  109         -4
KZ Okpala       96   107        -11
Marcus Garrett  92   111        -19

[miamiballer]

Thinking we might benefit from trading Robinson for a stretch 4, maybe add a pick if need be and bring in oladipo and move herro to bench, Robinson and first for Myles turner?

[Kobewade11]

Thinking we might benefit from trading Robinson for a stretch 4, maybe add a pick if need be and bring in oladipo and move herro to bench, Robinson and first for Myles turner?

It's been said on here that Robinson isnt trade eligible.

[Johnny Fontane]

Think big changes must be made if we want to compete for a title this year. Tired of the blown defensive assignments, and the overcompensation defense because Robinson and Herro are such big defensive liabilities. The ceiling on this team looks real because the mental makeup is just not there right now

[Johnny Fontane]

Thinking we might benefit from trading Robinson for a stretch 4, maybe add a pick if need be and bring in oladipo and move herro to bench, Robinson and first for Myles turner?

It's been said on here that Robinson isnt trade eligible.

Was this confirmed? It reads on Spotrac that he can't be traded until Jan. 15th which is still prior to the deadline

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/miami-heat/duncan-robinson-27658/

[3ammy3uck3ts]

For what it’s worth, Adam Borai told me Duncan can be traded prior to March so I honestly don’t know.

[Flash4thewin]

Thinking we might benefit from trading Robinson for a stretch 4, maybe add a pick if need be and bring in oladipo and move herro to bench, Robinson and first for Myles turner?

Also Indiana laughs at that offer. You do realize Robinson with his on court play is a negative asset?

[Johnny Fontane]

For what it’s worth, Adam Borai told me Duncan can be traded prior to March so I honestly don’t know.

Hope that's not true, but if it is obviously not good.

Getting rid of that contract is going to be a real task for the Heat

[BenoUdrihFTL]

It's obvious that the team's ceiling is 3pt shooting, and we've been limited here because Duncan and Lowry (the two guys we were really counting on) have been terrible. I get wanting to trade Duncan because he's been so bad but unless that translates to a better 3pt shooter then it's not moving the needle

E.g. if we can move Duncan for a Buddy Hield then that may be something to look at. But Duncan for Myles Turner only makes our offense worse

[Johnny Fontane]

It's obvious that the team's ceiling is 3pt shooting, and we've been limited here because Duncan and Lowry (the two guys we were really counting on) have been terrible. I get wanting to trade Duncan because he's been so bad but unless that translates to a better 3pt shooter then it's not moving the needle

E.g. if we can move Duncan for a Buddy Hield then that may be something to look at. But Duncan for Myles Turner only makes our offense worse

In the bold not hard to do this season. We could have easily let him walk and have Strus step into the role or find an undrafted guy who can match Duncan's production and provide more. The front office's hard-on for extending flukey players has killed us the past half-decade

[3ammy3uck3ts]

For what it’s worth, Adam Borai told me Duncan can be traded prior to March so I honestly don’t know.

Hope that's not true, but if it is obviously not good.

Getting rid of that contract is going to be a real task for the Heat

You hope he can or can’t be traded?

[3ammy3uck3ts]

It's obvious that the team's ceiling is 3pt shooting, and we've been limited here because Duncan and Lowry (the two guys we were really counting on) have been terrible. I get wanting to trade Duncan because he's been so bad but unless that translates to a better 3pt shooter then it's not moving the needle

E.g. if we can move Duncan for a Buddy Hield then that may be something to look at. But Duncan for Myles Turner only makes our offense worse

Wow I didn’t realize this but Turner is shooting 40% from 3 on 5 attempts!

[Johnny Fontane]

For what it’s worth, Adam Borai told me Duncan can be traded prior to March so I honestly don’t know.

Hope that's not true, but if it is obviously not good.

Getting rid of that contract is going to be a real task for the Heat

You hope he can or can’t be traded?

I'm saying I'm hoping he can be traded before the deadline and what you were told isn't true

[carnageta]

We've gone .500 since starting the season 6-1. We've got to get out sh*t together and get to 20 wins before we get to 10 losses.