Miami Heat Regular Season Thread 21-22 Vol. 1

[RexBoyWonder]

1. I really underrated Tucker. I still think we need a younger, bigger scorer as the second big, but the guy is a) a true dog and b) more skillful then i ever saw him in all his NBA seasons. He has a surprisingly nice mid range floater and passing.

2. Duncan was retained (also) because we needed a mid-sized contract we could move for a needed position down the road. He's (if he bounces back) our most tradable asset because we don't want to send out the big 3 or Herro and no else makes enough $$$ to bring in a meaningful player.

Him sucking is disappointing, but it shouldn't hurt the team that much. Strus and Martin look ready to take some of his minutes, and Duncan's salary could not have been used on a free agent this past offseason.

We need him to play better, but more so for his trade value then his actual on court performance.

[SerialChiller]

Read on Twitter

[MettaWorldPanda]

https://news4sanantonio.com/amp/sports/of-course-heats-duncan-robinson-has-admiration-for-the-spurs

Keep an eye out for the Spurs when it comes to a team that’s in a position to gamble on Duncan’s long term contract. They have a disgruntled Thaddeus Young who makes for a great fit here adding depth to our front court and bringing great defense. He also makes a little less then Duncan and works to get us away from the luxury tax. Spurs had heavy interest in Duncan during the offseason.

[RexBoyWonder]

Read on Twitter

1. Unfortunately he's a role player. Doesn't have the skillset or mindset to be more.

2. He can be an awesome role player, and Id love to get him next to Bam. His combination of shooting and rim protection will fit nicely here. Sadly I don't Duncan is enough to send out, and not sure how we can bridge the gap.

[twix2500]

https://youtu.be/T-Ij3eYoUGQ

Hope this game is a confidence booster for KZ and Strus, that will carry into future games.

Getting wins while getting development mins for the inexperienced will help down the road when the team is healthy.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[AirP.]

Here's the updated ORTG-DRTG for Miami, I also tossed in the TS% to see how efficient players were scoring and Box Score Plus/Minus from BBRef. These are simple numbers that try to figure out how much a player is contributing to the team and if you see something that looks odd maybe it's time to go deeper into that player's stats/play to figure it out. We all know Robinson has been horrible this year (and it shows), but those who have been praising Herro need to really start looking past PPG and seeing his smooth scoring (which is being seen more since he's getting more minutes and is shooting more). Herro's MPG has gone up and his FGA rate has went up dramatically since his first 2 years (20.4, 21.2, 26.9). I'm wondering if Herro is being showcased at this point.

Here's the ORTG, DRTG, ORTG-DRTG (sorted by ORTG-DRTG)

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player          ORtg DRtg ORtg-DRtg
------          ---- ---- ---------
Jimmy Butler    126  105         21
P.J. Tucker     125  109         16
Dewayne Dedmon  120  104         16
Caleb Martin    116  106         10
Udonis Haslem   116  107          9
KZ Okpala       116  108          8
Max Strus       117  110          7
Bam Adebayo     111  105          6
Kyle Lowry      109  109          0
Gabe Vincent    109  110         -1
Omer Yurtseven  104  106         -2
Tyler Herro     102  110         -8
Duncan Robinson 102  110         -8
Markieff Morris 104  112         -8
Marcus Garrett  93   114        -21

Here's True Shooting % to see how efficient a player has been.

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player          TS%
------          ---
Dewayne Dedmon  .628
Max Strus       .625
P.J. Tucker     .613
Jimmy Butler    .607
Caleb Martin    .580
Bam Adebayo     .577
Gabe Vincent    .570
Omer Yurtseven  .557
Kyle Lowry      .556
Tyler Herro     .547
Markieff Morris .533
Duncan Robinson .516
Udonis Haslem   .500
KZ Okpala       .491
Marcus Garrett  .000

Decided to toss in Box score plus/minus.

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player          OBPM DBPM BPM
------          ---- ---- ---
Jimmy Butler    5.5  2.9  8.5
Bam Adebayo     0.8  0.9  1.7
Caleb Martin    0.1  1.0  1.1
Max Strus       0.7  -0.1 0.6
P.J. Tucker     -0.5 1.1  0.6
Kyle Lowry      0.2  0.0  0.2
Tyler Herro     1.7  -1.7 0.0
Marcus Garrett  -6.5 0.8  -5.7
Udonis Haslem   -5.0 0.1  -4.9
Omer Yurtseven  -3.7 -0.1 -3.8
Markieff Morris -1.9 -0.4 -2.3
KZ Okpala       -2.3 0.4  -1.9
Duncan Robinson -1.4 -0.4 -1.8
Gabe Vincent    -1.7 0.1  -1.6
Dewayne Dedmon  -1.2 -0.1 -1.2

To give some meaning to the BPM from bbref.

To give a sense of the scale:

+10.0 is an all-time season (think peak Jordan or LeBron)
+8.0 is an MVP season (think peak Dirk or peak Shaq)
+6.0 is an all-NBA season
+4.0 is in all-star consideration
+2.0 is a good starter
+0.0 is a decent starter or solid 6th man
-2.0 is a bench player (this is also defined as "replacement level")
Below -2.0 are many end-of-bench players

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html

[AirP.]

https://youtu.be/T-Ij3eYoUGQ

Hope this game is a confidence booster for KZ and Strus, that will carry into future games.

Getting wins while getting development mins for the inexperienced will help down the road when the team is healthy.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

One of Strus' attributes is that he really doesn't alter his frame of mind, making or missing his last shot doesn't affect him, it was very noticeable his first game with Miami last year.

KZ on the other hand is usually very affected based on what he's done recently. He played a very limited game early on, had no mistakes, made some good plays and expanded his game by attacking the basket (which I don't think he should do at this point in his career). After all the good he did, he got a pass at the top of the key, had a 3pt shot but instead did a little fake then drove all the way to the free throw line and was stuck. All KZ needs to do is what I said this offseason, go the PJ Tucker route for now, hit some open 3s and play solid defense.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Here's the updated ORTG-DRTG for Miami, I also tossed in the TS% to see how efficient players were scoring and Box Score Plus/Minus from BBRef. These are simple numbers that try to figure out how much a player is contributing to the team and if you see something that looks odd maybe it's time to go deeper into that player's stats/play to figure it out. We all know Robinson has been horrible this year (and it shows), but those who have been praising Herro need to really start looking past PPG and seeing his smooth scoring (which is being seen more since he's getting more minutes and is shooting more). Herro's MPG has gone up and his FGA rate has went up dramatically since his first 2 years (20.4, 21.2, 26.9). I'm wondering if Herro is being showcased at this point.

Here's the ORTG, DRTG, ORTG-DRTG (sorted by ORTG-DRTG)

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player          ORtg DRtg ORtg-DRtg
------          ---- ---- ---------
Jimmy Butler    126  105         21
P.J. Tucker     125  109         16
Dewayne Dedmon  120  104         16
Caleb Martin    116  106         10
Udonis Haslem   116  107          9
KZ Okpala       116  108          8
Max Strus       117  110          7
Bam Adebayo     111  105          6
Kyle Lowry      109  109          0
Gabe Vincent    109  110         -1
Omer Yurtseven  104  106         -2
Tyler Herro     102  110         -8
Duncan Robinson 102  110         -8
Markieff Morris 104  112         -8
Marcus Garrett  93   114        -21

Here's True Shooting % to see how efficient a player has been.

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player          TS%
------          ---
Dewayne Dedmon  .628
Max Strus       .625
P.J. Tucker     .613
Jimmy Butler    .607
Caleb Martin    .580
Bam Adebayo     .577
Gabe Vincent    .570
Omer Yurtseven  .557
Kyle Lowry      .556
Tyler Herro     .547
Markieff Morris .533
Duncan Robinson .516
Udonis Haslem   .500
KZ Okpala       .491
Marcus Garrett  .000

Decided to toss in Box score plus/minus.

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player          OBPM DBPM BPM
------          ---- ---- ---
Jimmy Butler    5.5  2.9  8.5
Bam Adebayo     0.8  0.9  1.7
Caleb Martin    0.1  1.0  1.1
Max Strus       0.7  -0.1 0.6
P.J. Tucker     -0.5 1.1  0.6
Kyle Lowry      0.2  0.0  0.2
Tyler Herro     1.7  -1.7 0.0
Marcus Garrett  -6.5 0.8  -5.7
Udonis Haslem   -5.0 0.1  -4.9
Omer Yurtseven  -3.7 -0.1 -3.8
Markieff Morris -1.9 -0.4 -2.3
KZ Okpala       -2.3 0.4  -1.9
Duncan Robinson -1.4 -0.4 -1.8
Gabe Vincent    -1.7 0.1  -1.6
Dewayne Dedmon  -1.2 -0.1 -1.2

To give some meaning to the BPM from bbref.

To give a sense of the scale:

+10.0 is an all-time season (think peak Jordan or LeBron)
+8.0 is an MVP season (think peak Dirk or peak Shaq)
+6.0 is an all-NBA season
+4.0 is in all-star consideration
+2.0 is a good starter
+0.0 is a decent starter or solid 6th man
-2.0 is a bench player (this is also defined as "replacement level")
Below -2.0 are many end-of-bench players

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html

Man if Jimmy could’ve just had a healthy season he would’ve been MVP

[3ammy3uck3ts]

https://news4sanantonio.com/amp/sports/of-course-heats-duncan-robinson-has-admiration-for-the-spurs

Keep an eye out for the Spurs when it comes to a team that’s in a position to gamble on Duncan’s long term contract. They have a disgruntled Thaddeus Young who makes for a great fit here adding depth to our front court and bringing great defense. He also makes a little less then Duncan and works to get us away from the luxury tax. Spurs had heavy interest in Duncan during the offseason.

Give me Young and Doug or give me White.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Read on Twitter

1. Unfortunately he's a role player. Doesn't have the skillset or mindset to be more.

2. He can be an awesome role player, and Id love to get him next to Bam. His combination of shooting and rim protection will fit nicely here. Sadly I don't Duncan is enough to send out, and not sure how we can bridge the gap.

This. I’d love to have him next to Bam and it’ll save Tucker for the postseason where we need him most.

He’s a role player but he can actually get all nba defense recognition playing defense here as we’d probably be the top defense in the league. Hell get recognition for winning and being a key part of that. His age fits the timeline for now and the future.

Send Robinson, another young guy and a 1st, maybe even 2 at this point and get him. He’s the perfect fit, let’s get this championship.

[MettaWorldPanda]

https://news4sanantonio.com/amp/sports/of-course-heats-duncan-robinson-has-admiration-for-the-spurs

Keep an eye out for the Spurs when it comes to a team that’s in a position to gamble on Duncan’s long term contract. They have a disgruntled Thaddeus Young who makes for a great fit here adding depth to our front court and bringing great defense. He also makes a little less then Duncan and works to get us away from the luxury tax. Spurs had heavy interest in Duncan during the offseason.

Give me Young and Doug or give me White.

Any of those players attached to Young don’t work. Young and a 2nd rd pick should suffice. We gotta stop marking up Duncan’s value like he’s going to pull in some top talents. We looking at solid veterans in bad situations with soon to be expirings as his going rate.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Read on Twitter

1. Unfortunately he's a role player. Doesn't have the skillset or mindset to be more.

2. He can be an awesome role player, and Id love to get him next to Bam. His combination of shooting and rim protection will fit nicely here. Sadly I don't Duncan is enough to send out, and not sure how we can bridge the gap.

This. I’d love to have him next to Bam and it’ll save Tucker for the postseason where we need him most.

He’s a role player but he can actually get all nba defense recognition playing defense here as we’d probably be the top defense in the league. Hell get recognition for winning and being a key part of that. His age fits the timeline for now and the future.

Send Robinson, another young guy and a 1st, maybe even 2 at this point and get him. He’s the perfect fit, let’s get this championship.

I know you mean well but it’s highly doubtful anything with Turner happens here. Pacers will have other offers to weigh that will most likely be better offers then our one dimensional three point shooter. Duncan is not going to be an easy sell to teams and we are also tap dancing on avoiding the tax. Wizards find themselves in a similar situation with Davis Bertans.

[BFRESH44]

Yeah, I’d bank on Duncan getting hot and hitting of 40% on 8 attempts again, before I dump him off for Thaddeus Young’s expiring and a 2nd rounder. No thanks.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Yeah, I’d bank on Duncan getting hot and hitting of 40% on 8 attempts again, before I dump him off for Thaddeus Young’s expiring and a 2nd rounder. No thanks.

46% over his last 4

[3ammy3uck3ts]

1. Unfortunately he's a role player. Doesn't have the skillset or mindset to be more.

2. He can be an awesome role player, and Id love to get him next to Bam. His combination of shooting and rim protection will fit nicely here. Sadly I don't Duncan is enough to send out, and not sure how we can bridge the gap.

This. I’d love to have him next to Bam and it’ll save Tucker for the postseason where we need him most.

He’s a role player but he can actually get all nba defense recognition playing defense here as we’d probably be the top defense in the league. Hell get recognition for winning and being a key part of that. His age fits the timeline for now and the future.

Send Robinson, another young guy and a 1st, maybe even 2 at this point and get him. He’s the perfect fit, let’s get this championship.

I know you mean well but it’s highly doubtful anything with Turner happens here. Pacers will have other offers to weigh that will most likely be better offers then our one dimensional three point shooter. Duncan is not going to be an easy sell to teams and we are also tap dancing on avoiding the tax. Wizards find themselves in a similar situation with Davis Bertans.

Maybe so but they’ve been trying to trade him for 3 years and haven’t been able too. Duncan killed them last game, yurt played well. Maybe they want to see what Yurt develops into or another one of our young guys. The main asset is the picks/picks I’m assuming they haven’t been offered in the past.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

https://news4sanantonio.com/amp/sports/of-course-heats-duncan-robinson-has-admiration-for-the-spurs

Keep an eye out for the Spurs when it comes to a team that’s in a position to gamble on Duncan’s long term contract. They have a disgruntled Thaddeus Young who makes for a great fit here adding depth to our front court and bringing great defense. He also makes a little less then Duncan and works to get us away from the luxury tax. Spurs had heavy interest in Duncan during the offseason.

Give me Young and Doug or give me White.

Any of those players attached to Young don’t work. Young and a 2nd rd pick should suffice. We gotta stop marking up Duncan’s value like he’s going to pull in some top talents. We looking at solid veterans in bad situations with soon to be expirings as his going rate.

Meant white by himself, idk why I thought Doug was on a minimum contract

[MettaWorldPanda]

Yeah, I’d bank on Duncan getting hot and hitting of 40% on 8 attempts again, before I dump him off for Thaddeus Young’s expiring and a 2nd rounder. No thanks.

You underrate Thaddeus Young like many in here underrated PJ Tucker. Young is better then Duncan. Just like many thought Tucker was washed in Houston it’s the same situation Young is going through with the Spurs. We are soon going to have a major log jam in the swing spots. Duncan may not even get the opportunity you speak of once all the pieces are healthy and with the emergence of players like Martin and Strus. We get married to some of our players too much. I remember uproar by some when we traded Winslow for Crowder and Iguodala. I view trading Duncan for Young in that same light.

[AirP.]

Man if Jimmy could’ve just had a healthy season he would’ve been MVP

He was being talked about in the MVP race by some of the national media before these injuries. He's currently 4th in BPM so having him still in the top 10 while missing this much time is pretty good.

The Next Five:

6. Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

7. DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls

8. Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls

9. Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks

10. Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz

And five more (listed alphabetically): LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets; Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns; Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks; James Harden, Brooklyn Nets; Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies.

https://www.nba.com/news/kia-mvp-ladder-lamelo-ball-makes-way-into-conversation

[KingDavid]

Here's the updated ORTG-DRTG for Miami, I also tossed in the TS% to see how efficient players were scoring and Box Score Plus/Minus from BBRef. These are simple numbers that try to figure out how much a player is contributing to the team and if you see something that looks odd maybe it's time to go deeper into that player's stats/play to figure it out. We all know Robinson has been horrible this year (and it shows), but those who have been praising Herro need to really start looking past PPG and seeing his smooth scoring (which is being seen more since he's getting more minutes and is shooting more). Herro's MPG has gone up and his FGA rate has went up dramatically since his first 2 years (20.4, 21.2, 26.9). I'm wondering if Herro is being showcased at this point.

Here's the ORTG, DRTG, ORTG-DRTG (sorted by ORTG-DRTG)

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player          ORtg DRtg ORtg-DRtg
------          ---- ---- ---------
Jimmy Butler    126  105         21
P.J. Tucker     125  109         16
Dewayne Dedmon  120  104         16
Caleb Martin    116  106         10
Udonis Haslem   116  107          9
KZ Okpala       116  108          8
Max Strus       117  110          7
Bam Adebayo     111  105          6
Kyle Lowry      109  109          0
Gabe Vincent    109  110         -1
Omer Yurtseven  104  106         -2
Tyler Herro     102  110         -8
Duncan Robinson 102  110         -8
Markieff Morris 104  112         -8
Marcus Garrett  93   114        -21

Here's True Shooting % to see how efficient a player has been.

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player          TS%
------          ---
Dewayne Dedmon  .628
Max Strus       .625
P.J. Tucker     .613
Jimmy Butler    .607
Caleb Martin    .580
Bam Adebayo     .577
Gabe Vincent    .570
Omer Yurtseven  .557
Kyle Lowry      .556
Tyler Herro     .547
Markieff Morris .533
Duncan Robinson .516
Udonis Haslem   .500
KZ Okpala       .491
Marcus Garrett  .000

Decided to toss in Box score plus/minus.

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player          OBPM DBPM BPM
------          ---- ---- ---
Jimmy Butler    5.5  2.9  8.5
Bam Adebayo     0.8  0.9  1.7
Caleb Martin    0.1  1.0  1.1
Max Strus       0.7  -0.1 0.6
P.J. Tucker     -0.5 1.1  0.6
Kyle Lowry      0.2  0.0  0.2
Tyler Herro     1.7  -1.7 0.0
Marcus Garrett  -6.5 0.8  -5.7
Udonis Haslem   -5.0 0.1  -4.9
Omer Yurtseven  -3.7 -0.1 -3.8
Markieff Morris -1.9 -0.4 -2.3
KZ Okpala       -2.3 0.4  -1.9
Duncan Robinson -1.4 -0.4 -1.8
Gabe Vincent    -1.7 0.1  -1.6
Dewayne Dedmon  -1.2 -0.1 -1.2

To give some meaning to the BPM from bbref.

To give a sense of the scale:

+10.0 is an all-time season (think peak Jordan or LeBron)
+8.0 is an MVP season (think peak Dirk or peak Shaq)
+6.0 is an all-NBA season
+4.0 is in all-star consideration
+2.0 is a good starter
+0.0 is a decent starter or solid 6th man
-2.0 is a bench player (this is also defined as "replacement level")
Below -2.0 are many end-of-bench players

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html

Need to make a thread to keep track of these stats

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Man if Jimmy could’ve just had a healthy season he would’ve been MVP

He was being talked about in the MVP race by some of the national media before these injuries. He's currently 4th in BPM so having him still in the top 10 while missing this much time is pretty good.

The Next Five:

6. Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

7. DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls

8. Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls

9. Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks

10. Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz

And five more (listed alphabetically): LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets; Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns; Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks; James Harden, Brooklyn Nets; Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies.

https://www.nba.com/news/kia-mvp-ladder-lamelo-ball-makes-way-into-conversation

He’s first few weeks of the season he was sitting at number 1