Official Trade Thread - Part XLII

[9 and 20]

Punting on a prime season of a healthy Embiid is a crime against humanity. That dude, even if he is a bully and kind of a jerk on the court, deserves better. He's a great, great player. Maybe only Jokic better, and that's arguable. Plus, they have a bunch of other players who nicely complement him. They should go all in now and trade Simmons for the best return they can get - tomorrow or next year may be the time Embiid's knees implode.

[payitforward]

Punting on a prime season of a healthy Embiid is a crime against humanity. That dude, even if he is a bully and kind of a jerk on the court, deserves better. He's a great, great player. Maybe only Jokic better, and that's arguable. Plus, they have a bunch of other players who nicely complement him. They should go all in now and trade Simmons for the best return they can get - tomorrow or next year may be the time Embiid's knees implode.

Couldn't ask for a better example of how people over-rate scoring.

Jokic gets 27% more defensive boards than Embiiid, but that doesn't weigh in the assessment of the two.

Oh, and 65% more offensive boards too. 80% more assists. & a significantly higher TS% too. It was closer last year, but Embiid has never had a year when he was as good as Jokic.

Embiid is a terrific player, don't get me wrong! But, he's not on a level with Jokic.

Still right on to say that it'd be ridiculous to waste a prime season of a player as good as he is.

[Ruzious]

But what about defense? Just watching them play, it appears to be obvious that Embiid is far superior defensively than Jokic. I'm not sure that Embiid's defense makes him overall a better player than Jokic, but it's extraordinarily hard to win in the playoffs without a good defensive big.

[nate33]

But what about defense? Just watching them play, it appears to be obvious that Embiid is far superior defensively than Jokic. I'm not sure that Embiid's defense makes him overall a better player than Jokic, but it's extraordinarily hard to win in the playoffs without a good defensive big.

Agreed. I'd give Jokic the edge over Embiid, but it's only a small one.

Jokic is obviously a better playmaker and it's incredible that he can essentially be the team's PG, but he is not the intimidator that Embiid is on D. Also, I think Jokic's offensive style is one that you can eventually adapt to in a 7-game series and figure out how to take away his passing lanes. There is no adapting to Embiid no matter how much you've seen him play. He really can't be stopped without a double-team.

[GoneShammGone]

But what about defense? Just watching them play, it appears to be obvious that Embiid is far superior defensively than Jokic. I'm not sure that Embiid's defense makes him overall a better player than Jokic, but it's extraordinarily hard to win in the playoffs without a good defensive big.

Agreed. I'd give Jokic the edge over Embiid, but it's only a small one.

Jokic is obviously a better playmaker and it's incredible that he can essentially be the team's PG, but he is not the intimidator that Embiid is on D. Also, I think Jokic's offensive style is one that you can eventually adapt to in a 7-game series and figure out how to take away his passing lanes. There is no adapting to Embiid no matter how much you've seen him play. He really can't be stopped without a double-team.

Agree about Jokic's defense when it comes to the "eye-test" but its worth noting that 538's Raptor metric has Jokic as the best defender in the NBA (!): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

I was kind of shocked when I saw that. Its worth digging into the Raptor methodology a little to see what's going on. They have a pretty thorough explanation of their methods: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/

Bascially, they have a big on/off component which they combine with a bunch of player tracking statistics. From the link above:

On defense, it looks at factors like how often the player was the nearest defender on an opponents’ shot and how often those shots went in, how many points and rebounds were scored by opponents at the defender’s position, and how often the player induced offensive fouls.

Fwiw, this is the same defensive metric that loves Deni Avdija. Looks like Jokic does a good job contesting shots at the very least. As for Embiid, Raptor thinks his defense is good, but not really close to Jokic.

[Ruzious]

Meh, in past years I've seen metrics that have Jokic among the worst defenders in the NBA. I think the answer is somewhere in the middle.

[Frichuela]

Trading Beal should be seriously contemplated at this deadline, particularly now that he seems to be back to his old self...

However, if the powers that be are hell bent on keeping Beal, I would look to acquire Sabonis from the Pacers as long as the price is not too hefty.

I'd be prepared to offer Kuzma, Rui and Kispert plus NO 2022 1st (lottery protected from trading Harrell to CHA) for Sabonis+Brissett.

The Harrell trade could net us Ish + Carey (or ideally JT Thor) in return. In this case I'd trade Neto to the Cavs for SAS 2022 2nd they own (+Windler). I'd also contemplate trading Bryant for some guard help and 2nd round draft compensation.

Imagine this roster:

Dinwiddie/Ish/Ayayi
Beal/Holiday/Guard from Bryant trade
KCP/Brissett/Windler
Deni/Bertans/Todd
Sabonis/Gafford/Carey (or JT Thor)

+ 2 new 2nd round picks.

I think the pairing of Deni+Sabonis could be great, with Deni providing enough defense and weak side rim protection (he is averaging 1.2 blocks per 36). At short stints, we could even contemplate playing Sabonis as PF with Gafford a C against big teams like the Cavs or the Sixers.

I have dreams of Wes using Sabonis like a Jokic-light point-center version running the offense and surrendered by cutters and shooters...

Obviously for Indiana to contemplate this, we would need Rui to get back to playing for a few games at a decent level and Kuzma to keep it up.

[payitforward]

But what about defense? Just watching them play, it appears to be obvious that Embiid is far superior defensively than Jokic. I'm not sure that Embiid's defense makes him overall a better player than Jokic, but it's extraordinarily hard to win in the playoffs without a good defensive big.

Agreed. I'd give Jokic the edge over Embiid, but it's only a small one.

Jokic is obviously a better playmaker and it's incredible that he can essentially be the team's PG, but he is not the intimidator that Embiid is on D. Also, I think Jokic's offensive style is one that you can eventually adapt to in a 7-game series and figure out how to take away his passing lanes. There is no adapting to Embiid no matter how much you've seen him play. He really can't be stopped without a double-team.

Agree about Jokic's defense when it comes to the "eye-test" but its worth noting that 538's Raptor metric has Jokic as the best defender in the NBA (!): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

I was kind of shocked when I saw that. Its worth digging into the Raptor methodology a little to see what's going on. They have a pretty thorough explanation of their methods: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/

Bascially, they have a big on/off component which they combine with a bunch of player tracking statistics. From the link above:

On defense, it looks at factors like how often the player was the nearest defender on an opponents’ shot and how often those shots went in, how many points and rebounds were scored by opponents at the defender’s position, and how often the player induced offensive fouls.

Fwiw, this is the same defensive metric that loves Deni Avdija. Looks like Jokic does a good job contesting shots at the very least. As for Embiid, Raptor thinks his defense is good, but not really close to Jokic.

All these points about Embiid's defense are perfectly valid -- & player comparisons can never be exact, above all between two really outstanding players.

As to Raptor, it's mystery meat, despite the "pretty thorough explanation." If I can't check a complex metric by calculating it myself (or at least knowing that the tools & methodologies are available for someone else to check it), that metric is not much help.

Embiid is obviously a tremendous player. OTOH, after 40 games last year, Philly was 28-12. Right now, they're 19-16. & if you account for home & away games being different in number, they'd be either 1 or 2 games above .500 right now.

There's been one significant change to the team, & it wasn't Joel Embiid. They don't have their best player: Ben Simmons.

[nate33]

Embiid is obviously a tremendous player. OTOH, after 40 games last year, Philly was 28-12. Right now, they're 19-16. & if you account for home & away games being different in number, they'd be either 1 or 2 games above .500 right now.

There's been one significant change to the team, & it wasn't Joel Embiid. They don't have their best player: Ben Simmons.

That's seriously misleading. Embiid has missed a bunch of games this season. The Sixers are 16-8 in games Embiid has played, and 3-8 without him.

Last year, the Sixers were 39-12 with Embiid playing, and 10-11 without him.

For comparison, the Sixers were 41-17 with Simmons on the court, and 7-7 without him.

[Ruzious]

Agreed. I'd give Jokic the edge over Embiid, but it's only a small one.

Jokic is obviously a better playmaker and it's incredible that he can essentially be the team's PG, but he is not the intimidator that Embiid is on D. Also, I think Jokic's offensive style is one that you can eventually adapt to in a 7-game series and figure out how to take away his passing lanes. There is no adapting to Embiid no matter how much you've seen him play. He really can't be stopped without a double-team.

Agree about Jokic's defense when it comes to the "eye-test" but its worth noting that 538's Raptor metric has Jokic as the best defender in the NBA (!): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

I was kind of shocked when I saw that. Its worth digging into the Raptor methodology a little to see what's going on. They have a pretty thorough explanation of their methods: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/

Bascially, they have a big on/off component which they combine with a bunch of player tracking statistics. From the link above:

On defense, it looks at factors like how often the player was the nearest defender on an opponents’ shot and how often those shots went in, how many points and rebounds were scored by opponents at the defender’s position, and how often the player induced offensive fouls.

Fwiw, this is the same defensive metric that loves Deni Avdija. Looks like Jokic does a good job contesting shots at the very least. As for Embiid, Raptor thinks his defense is good, but not really close to Jokic.

All these points about Embiid's defense are perfectly valid -- & player comparisons can never be exact, above all between two really outstanding players.

As to Raptor, it's mystery meat, despite the "pretty thorough explanation." If I can't check a complex metric by calculating it myself (or at least knowing that the tools & methodologies are available for someone else to check it), that metric is not much help.

Embiid is obviously a tremendous player. OTOH, after 40 games last year, Philly was 28-12. Right now, they're 19-16. & if you account for home & away games being different in number, they'd be either 1 or 2 games above .500 right now.

There's been one significant change to the team, & it wasn't Joel Embiid. They don't have their best player: Ben Simmons.

You had me until the end there. I'm one of Ben's biggest fans, but saying he's better than Embiid is a bit outrageous.

[9 and 20]

Punting on a prime season of a healthy Embiid is a crime against humanity. That dude, even if he is a bully and kind of a jerk on the court, deserves better. He's a great, great player. Maybe only Jokic better, and that's arguable. Plus, they have a bunch of other players who nicely complement him. They should go all in now and trade Simmons for the best return they can get - tomorrow or next year may be the time Embiid's knees implode.

Couldn't ask for a better example of how people over-rate scoring.

Jokic gets 27% more defensive boards than Embiiid, but that doesn't weigh in the assessment of the two.

Oh, and 65% more offensive boards too. 80% more assists. & a significantly higher TS% too. It was closer last year, but Embiid has never had a year when he was as good as Jokic.

Embiid is a terrific player, don't get me wrong! But, he's not on a level with Jokic.

Still right on to say that it'd be ridiculous to waste a prime season of a player as good as he is.

Not to pile on, but I couldn't ask for a better example of -



OK! A little bit of piling on.

[Illuminaire]

Embiid is a terrific player, don't get me wrong! But, he's not on a level with Jokic.

I would have argued with you about this a year ago. But I've watched a ton of Nuggets games the last two seasons, and Jokic is the real deal - even on defense. His improvement there is staggering. He's not an intimidating rim protector, but his positional defense is vastly improved. The same BBIQ that lets him rip apart defenses with savvy passing is at work there, keeping him in the right place to cut off drives, stymie secondary actions, and contest shots.

If anyone here feels like being a super basketball nerd, I warmly suggest watching a Denver match just to see how he anchors a motley crew of 6th men on the defensive end. You'll be pleasantly surprised.

[FAH1223]

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[nate33]

Embiid is a terrific player, don't get me wrong! But, he's not on a level with Jokic.

I would have argued with you about this a year ago. But I've watched a ton of Nuggets games the last two seasons, and Jokic is the real deal - even on defense. His improvement there is staggering. He's not an intimidating rim protector, but his positional defense is vastly improved. The same BBIQ that lets him rip apart defenses with savvy passing is at work there, keeping him in the right place to cut off drives, stymie secondary actions, and contest shots.

If anyone here feels like being a super basketball nerd, I warmly suggest watching a Denver match just to see how he anchors a motley crew of 6th men on the defensive end. You'll be pleasantly surprised.

Guys like Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol have demonstrated that you don't need great footspeed and athleticism to be an elite defender, as long as you are huge and have a good intuitive sense of spacing and angles.

[80sballboy]

Sounds like they are talking Deni/Rui and a first. All three would be absurd.

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?s=20

[payitforward]

Embiid is obviously a tremendous player. OTOH, after 40 games last year, Philly was 28-12. Right now, they're 19-16. & if you account for home & away games being different in number, they'd be either 1 or 2 games above .500 right now.

There's been one significant change to the team, & it wasn't Joel Embiid. They don't have their best player: Ben Simmons.

That's seriously misleading. Embiid has missed a bunch of games this season. The Sixers are 16-8 in games Embiid has played, and 3-8 without him.

Last year, the Sixers were 39-12 with Embiid playing, and 10-11 without him.

For comparison, the Sixers were 41-17 with Simmons on the court, and 7-7 without him.

You are quite correct! I should have dug a bit deeper.

Main takeaway is how good both guys are. Secondarily, part of the difference in the impact of their absences (or of any player) lies in how good the guy is who replaces one of them when he's out. 3d question would be how many of each of those players' "out" games also were with the other guy out.

[Ruzious]

Sounds like they are talking Deni/Rui and a first. All three would be absurd.

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?s=20

Well, Sabonis is a stats machine and a quality player. Aside from the issue about whether he can play PF and win - is the thing that people doubted DeRozan on - Sabonis is a poor 3 point shooter. Now, DeRozan - after years in the NBA - has overcome that stigma. Sabonis is just 25 - I could see him having that same kind of victory in his game. Dude is tremendously skilled - except for his shooting range. And I do think he's got to adjust to sticking at PF. And in order to get a quality producer like Sabonis, it will cost. Indiana's failure to win with him will make the cost reasonable, imo.

[payitforward]

Sounds like they are talking Deni/Rui and a first. All three would be absurd.

Deni & a first would be absurd.

Anyway, Sabonis makes $18.5m.

Plus, our 2023 R1 pick is gone, so I don't think we can trade either our 2022 or our 2024 -- is that not correct?

[80sballboy]

Sounds like they are talking Deni/Rui and a first. All three would be absurd.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Well, Sabonis is a stats machine and a quality player. Aside from the issue about whether he can play PF and win - is the thing that people doubted DeRozan on - Sabonis is a poor 3 point shooter. Now, DeRozan - after years in the NBA - has overcome that stigma. Sabonis is just 25 - I could see him having that same kind of victory in his game. Dude is tremendously skilled - except for his shooting range. And I do think he's got to adjust to sticking at PF. And in order to get a quality producer like Sabonis, it will cost. Indiana's failure to win with him will make the cost reasonable, imo.

Kuzma's best position is power forward. You might as well trade him and the pick if you think you can get Sabonis. He's a hell of a player. Great passer and rebounder like his old man. Not a great defender. I'm sure Beal would love to play with him. Is he a center or power forward? We certainly can use more size and a rebounder.

[Ruzious]

Sounds like they are talking Deni/Rui and a first. All three would be absurd.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Well, Sabonis is a stats machine and a quality player. Aside from the issue about whether he can play PF and win - is the thing that people doubted DeRozan on - Sabonis is a poor 3 point shooter. Now, DeRozan - after years in the NBA - has overcome that stigma. Sabonis is just 25 - I could see him having that same kind of victory in his game. Dude is tremendously skilled - except for his shooting range. And I do think he's got to adjust to sticking at PF. And in order to get a quality producer like Sabonis, it will cost. Indiana's failure to win with him will make the cost reasonable, imo.

Kuzma's best position is power forward. You might as well trade him and the pick if you think you can get Sabonis. He's a hell of a player. Great passer and rebounder like his old man. Not a great defender. I'm sure Beal would love to play with him. Is he a center or power forward? We certainly can use more size and a rebounder.

Yeah, maybe start off offering Kuz and Deni for Sabonis? We can add either Neto or Holliday as filler. We don't want to over-pay for Sabonis, because he's not going to get us a championship.