Official Celtics 2022 Off-Season Thread

[Feed Your Head]

Imagine where he’d be if he could make a three.

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[Joshyjess]

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This is our moment.

I'll vote for you if you vote for me!!!

[Andrew McCeltic]

paging Fencer bc you seem like you'll have a good answer

General stats question that's nagged at me for years:

Is there a stat for how much a player hovers around his averages on a night to night basis? Like, the "gravity" of the mean?

Over ten games, you could average 18 points a night by putting up 18 every single night, or by putting up 0 half the time and 36 the other half. Guys must have different consistency/reliability stats.

[Fencer reregistered]

paging Fencer bc you seem like you'll have a good answer

General stats question that's nagged at me for years:

Is there a stat for how much a player hovers around his averages on a night to night basis? Like, the "gravity" of the mean?

Over ten games, you could average 18 points a night by putting up 18 every single night, or by putting up 0 half the time and 36 the other half. Guys must have different consistency/reliability stats.

Sorry, can't help. First, I'm not up on basketball stats sites. Second, definitions in statistics get really confused between probabilistically expected difference from the mean and actual difference from mean. (Look up definitions for "standard deviation", "variance" or "volatility" to see what I mean.)

[Andrew McCeltic]

paging Fencer bc you seem like you'll have a good answer

General stats question that's nagged at me for years:

Is there a stat for how much a player hovers around his averages on a night to night basis? Like, the "gravity" of the mean?

Over ten games, you could average 18 points a night by putting up 18 every single night, or by putting up 0 half the time and 36 the other half. Guys must have different consistency/reliability stats.

Sorry, can't help. First, I'm not up on basketball stats sites. Second, definitions in statistics get really confused between probabilistically expected difference from the mean and actual difference from mean. (Look up definitions for "standard deviation", "variance" or "volatility" to see what I mean.)

Nah, that helps plenty. You're setting a way higher bar than I need, lol. I'd just love to see some giant, eight-ballpark-sized ballpark estimate.

But standard deviation for per-game stats sounds like it's a useful measure of 'consistency'/'reliability', and variance gives you the typical range of inconsistency - like, averages 16, most nights that means you're getting between 13 and 19 points - versus, averages 16 but any given night you could get 11 or 21.. they seem like similar and complementary measures.

[Floody100]

CP3
Brown
Tatum
Grant
Rob

That starting 5 would be first in the East right now.

[zoyathedestroya]

Tatum has one hot spot. Everywhere else has been average to bad?

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[Shak_Celts]

paging Fencer bc you seem like you'll have a good answer

General stats question that's nagged at me for years:

Is there a stat for how much a player hovers around his averages on a night to night basis? Like, the "gravity" of the mean?

Over ten games, you could average 18 points a night by putting up 18 every single night, or by putting up 0 half the time and 36 the other half. Guys must have different consistency/reliability stats.

Sorry, can't help. First, I'm not up on basketball stats sites. Second, definitions in statistics get really confused between probabilistically expected difference from the mean and actual difference from mean. (Look up definitions for "standard deviation", "variance" or "volatility" to see what I mean.)

You lost me after "First!"

[Feed Your Head]

Tatum has one hot spot. Everywhere else has been average to bad?

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At the rim doesn’t seem right? He’s at 68% within 3 feet, and 62% in the RA.

Everywhere else though? Yeah it seems right lol.

[Andrew McCeltic]

Yeah, Tatum’s turned into a “volume scorer” this season… haven’t thought of that phrase in fifteen years, f*ck

[Fencer reregistered]

General stats question that's nagged at me for years:

Is there a stat for how much a player hovers around his averages on a night to night basis? Like, the "gravity" of the mean?

Over ten games, you could average 18 points a night by putting up 18 every single night, or by putting up 0 half the time and 36 the other half. Guys must have different consistency/reliability stats.

Sorry, can't help. First, I'm not up on basketball stats sites. Second, definitions in statistics get really confused between probabilistically expected difference from the mean and actual difference from mean. (Look up definitions for "standard deviation", "variance" or "volatility" to see what I mean.)

You lost me after "First!"

tl;dr: Statistical terminology sucks

[bucknersrevenge]

I have this recurring fantasy that plays out like that scene in Rudy:

Ime is sitting at his desk when Al walks in with his jersey and drops it down on the desk and tells Ime to play Romeo in his place. Ime replies

"That's ridiculous. Al, you're our most veteran player and a half of the double-big. Act like it."

To which Al replies "I believe I am" and then walks out. And then the rest of the starting 5 and the bench all walk in afterwards one by one and put their jersey on the desk to put an end to the double-big starting.

[playa-hater]

I have this recurring fantasy that plays out like that scene in Rudy:

Ime is sitting at his desk when Al walks in with his jersey and drops it down on the desk and tells Ime to play Romeo in his place. Ime replies

"That's ridiculous. Al, you're our most veteran player and a half of the double-big. Act like it."

To which Al replies "I believe I am" and then walks out. And then the rest of the starting 5 and the bench all walk in afterwards one by one and put their jersey on the desk to put an end to the double-big starting.

My lord.. This is so funny and so sad... Not sue how to react

[zoyathedestroya]

Trade Schroder. Shut down Tatum. Bench JRich and Horford (trade ballasts in summer). Get high pick.

Pritchard | Nesmith | Brown | Hauser | Timelord
Smart | Brodric | Langford | Grant | Kanter

Closing lineup of PP-Nee-Ro-Brown-Bruno.

[DarkAzcura]

As big as the structural problems are on this team and some of Ime’s coaching, when it comes down to it, what separates us from the top of the conference is that the players still think they are too good to show up against mediocre to bad teams. Our record against > .500 teams has been fine relative to the top of the conference. Our record against < .500 teams is embarrassing relatively speaking.

https://imgur.com/a/n4GBKCf

While I would agree we need a much better team makeup to compete for a championship, there’s really no excuse for this imo. Shooters, playmakers, 3rd star aside, simple analysis, they have to stay awake against bad teams better than they do.

Even last year, what actually kept us from the 4-6 seed with NY, Atlanta, and Miami who were all roughly 8-10 games above .500 was that they performed much better against bad teams than us.

[fallguy]

How do we feel about this starting lineup:

Pritchard
Smart
JB
JT
Rob

Feel like that gives us a lot of what we need...

[Fencer reregistered]

The first time I saw a play of this kind, Scottie Pippen did it against a Phoenix Sun who had turned away to shout defensive directions.

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Care to guess who the Sun was?

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[zoyathedestroya]

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Might be the reason why Ime won't give up the double-big lineups. This is also 4th of 53 in net rating. The offensive rating of this group isn't even that bad. It would put us just outside the top 10, ahead of GSW.

The problematic lineup is the one with Schroder instead of Brown. Even the Kanter-Horford lineups have surprisingly outscored opponents for the most part.

Question is... can Tatum sustain his shooting, aggressiveness in attacking the rim, and playmaking regardless of what position he plays?

[Half-Full]

Trade Schroder. Shut down Tatum. Bench JRich and Horford (trade ballasts in summer). Get high pick.

Pritchard | Nesmith | Brown | Hauser | Timelord
Smart | Brodric | Langford | Grant | Kanter

Closing lineup of PP-Nee-Ro-Brown-Bruno.

Those are some interesting lineups. What might result if we went with those lineups? We might find that one or more of Pritchard, Langford, Nesmith, Hauser, and Brodric are better than we thought. The coaches might find they have confidence in those players, and that confidence will carry over to the players. Depending on their play, their trade value may go up. Any who remain with the team next year will feel more confident, and that they are a contributing part of the team. Yeah, they could all show that their real place is in the G-League, or holding down bench spots 12, 13, 14, and 15, but I would roll with it and hope for the best. I don't think I would be disappointed with the result.

[Celts17Pride]

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Elgin Baylor was quite a player