Blazer Rumors Roundup 2022

[Roy The Natural]

One would suspect Portland/Nurk will have extension talks prior to the end of the season that are
designed to either lower that cap hold number or to make a decision on his future in Portland. One
would think Portland would get something done if their was mutual interest in getting something done
for come day 1 of free agency, Portland will be ready to make some moves.

It'll be interesting to see what Portland does this summer with Dame for in the remaining games left
in the season, Simons if he finishes strong will be entrenched in the starting lineup and the moves then
will be how to build the team around him as opposed to Dame.

Here's the problem.

The Blazers are basically at around $80M-$82M in no doubter guaranteed salary next year. This money is for:
Lillard
Simons (cap hold)
Winslow
Little
Bledsoe (stretch & waive)
Louzada
Keon
G. Brown
Nicholson (stretch & waive)
Draft Pick cap holds probably about $8M-$9M

So... that leaves
Nurk at $18M cap hold
Hart $13M unguaranteed
to make decisions on.

The projected salary cap is $121M as far as I know. Renouncement of both Nurkic and Hart leaves us with $39M-$41M. A good amount with which to do some cool stuff. Absorb salary no problem and sound out assets for a potential big-time player. Bring back Hart and we're down to $26M-$28M. Still enough to do interesting stuff, but probably only one interesting move. Obviously without renouncing Nurk, we're down to about $8M-$10M and severely limited to the point where we'd probably be better just being over the salary cap and having access to the MLE.

I was cool with the CJ and NAW trade... however, I don't feel this team is setup well at all right now for the offseason. Either Nurkic or Hart should have been moved before the deadline. There are ways that the Blazers can still make things work... but they're waaaaaayyyy more limited with Nurkic on-board. I don't see any reason to play the game of waiting for him to explore the market while eating his cap-hold that really sucks for the team. Sign and trade is off the table due to hard capping.

[Roy The Natural]

Looks like Portland escaped the Grant overpay trade. Where do they go from here now

I know not everyone will agree but with Harden off the market..

I think we should make some real big ass toxic front-loaded offers to DeAndre Ayton and Miles Bridges and either force those owners to pay or blink and say goodbye.

Or even Mitchell Robinson.

I've looked at the Blazer cap next year from several angles. In order to make a max offer, even for the 25% rookie extension, the Blazers would have to renounce Nurkic & the two TPE's, and maybe even Simons. And risk that the other team would match

Most likely they'd renounce Hart and Nurkic. Which of course begs the question... why weren't they moved?

[The Sebastian Express]

I know not everyone will agree but with Harden off the market..

I think we should make some real big ass toxic front-loaded offers to DeAndre Ayton and Miles Bridges and either force those owners to pay or blink and say goodbye.

Or even Mitchell Robinson.

I've looked at the Blazer cap next year from several angles. In order to make a max offer, even for the 25% rookie extension, the Blazers would have to renounce Nurkic & the two TPE's, and maybe even Simons. And risk that the other team would match

Most likely they'd renounce Hart and Nurkic. Which of course begs the question... why weren't they moved?

Because you can move Hart during the draft with picks if needed, same thing with Bledsoe (who's guarantee date for 2022-2023 is AFTER the draft). I think not moving Nurkic is a mistake, though.

[Roy The Natural]

I've looked at the Blazer cap next year from several angles. In order to make a max offer, even for the 25% rookie extension, the Blazers would have to renounce Nurkic & the two TPE's, and maybe even Simons. And risk that the other team would match

Most likely they'd renounce Hart and Nurkic. Which of course begs the question... why weren't they moved?

Because you can move Hart during the draft with picks if needed, same thing with Bledsoe (who's guarantee date for 2022-2023 is AFTER the draft). I think not moving Nurkic is a mistake, though.

Can you move Hart and/or Bledsoe for picks and not take back bad/longer-term salary? I have my doubts.

I don't mind the Blazers keeping these guys around into the offseason if the goal is to tear it down. It makes sense then. I don't see any real scenario where the Blazers have taken an appreciably large step forward walking into next season. Not unless they get the rarest of rare of a high pick returning immediately large dividends in the form of an immediate impact potential star.

[The Sebastian Express]

Most likely they'd renounce Hart and Nurkic. Which of course begs the question... why weren't they moved?

Because you can move Hart during the draft with picks if needed, same thing with Bledsoe (who's guarantee date for 2022-2023 is AFTER the draft). I think not moving Nurkic is a mistake, though.

Can you move Hart and/or Bledsoe for picks and not take back bad/longer-term salary? I have my doubts.

Not for picks. WITH picks. We can package our lottery pick(s) with them.

[Roy The Natural]

Because you can move Hart during the draft with picks if needed, same thing with Bledsoe (who's guarantee date for 2022-2023 is AFTER the draft). I think not moving Nurkic is a mistake, though.

Can you move Hart and/or Bledsoe for picks and not take back bad/longer-term salary? I have my doubts.

Not for picks. WITH picks. We can package our lottery pick(s) with them.

If we had traded them for less salary (expiring)+w/e picks or what not, we could send out our lottery picks without them just the same? I don't understand your point here.

Bledsoe only hurts the value of the picks. Hart is solid, but he's not going to be the difference between accomplishing a trade that brings the level of player Portland needs/wants and not. The lotter picks are that difference.

If the Blazers are $43M under the salary cap they can send out the picks straight up and don't need to package it with anything.

[DusterBuster]

I know not everyone will agree but with Harden off the market..

I think we should make some real big ass toxic front-loaded offers to DeAndre Ayton and Miles Bridges and either force those owners to pay or blink and say goodbye.

Or even Mitchell Robinson.

I've looked at the Blazer cap next year from several angles. In order to make a max offer, even for the 25% rookie extension, the Blazers would have to renounce Nurkic & the two TPE's, and maybe even Simons. And risk that the other team would match

Most likely they'd renounce Hart and Nurkic. Which of course begs the question... why weren't they moved?

Because there's no need to renounce them until the last second.

[DusterBuster]

Because you can move Hart during the draft with picks if needed, same thing with Bledsoe (who's guarantee date for 2022-2023 is AFTER the draft). I think not moving Nurkic is a mistake, though.

Can you move Hart and/or Bledsoe for picks and not take back bad/longer-term salary? I have my doubts.

Not for picks. WITH picks. We can package our lottery pick(s) with them.

What's the decision date for Hart and Bledsoe's non-guaranteed deals? Before or after the draft?

[Roy The Natural]

I've looked at the Blazer cap next year from several angles. In order to make a max offer, even for the 25% rookie extension, the Blazers would have to renounce Nurkic & the two TPE's, and maybe even Simons. And risk that the other team would match

Most likely they'd renounce Hart and Nurkic. Which of course begs the question... why weren't they moved?

Because there's no need to renounce them until the last second.

Oh sure... but the point is more that Nurk certainly had some level of value, even if it's a couple of 2nds, or a young guy and a worse player on an expiring. I think ultimately there's a much larger chance that Nurkic is renounced or jets on his own than there is of him being a good piece to retain. Thus he is more likely to bring Portland no return value than leave Portland is an advantageous position.

There are some positives/good reasons to not necessarily trade Hart right this second. He has decent value on his contract and is likely a positive player that in the VERY VERY VERY likely event that crap hits the proverbial fan in the offseason when the Blazers fall on their face trying to acquire players as always.... can still be moved for good value.

I don't see the same with Nurkic. I'm having a very hard time seeing a scenario in which Portland gets a big enough fish to make the impact they're looking for, and Nurkic's cap hold isn't a hindrance in that process. When all the big fish fall through the net, they'll likely end up renouncing him anyways... or even more disastrously they'll try to sell the fanbase on resigning him to some deal.

[The Sebastian Express]

Can you move Hart and/or Bledsoe for picks and not take back bad/longer-term salary? I have my doubts.

Not for picks. WITH picks. We can package our lottery pick(s) with them.

If we had traded them for less salary (expiring)+w/e picks or what not, we could send out our lottery picks without them just the same? I don't understand your point here.

Bledsoe only hurts the value of the picks. Hart is solid, but he's not going to be the difference between accomplishing a trade that involves lottery picks and not.

If the Blazers are $43M under the salary cap they can send out the picks straight up and don't need to package it with anything.

The difference and the point is this: the Blazers do not have cap space until after the switch over to the new NBA calendar year - which is after the draft.

Bledsoe and Hart aren't guaranteed until after the draft, but before the switch to the new NBA calendar year.

The Blazers can package their draft picks and these non-guaranteed contracts leading up to the draft (and possibly during the draft, though not 100% certain on this one) to a team wanting to control the picks themselves and get out of guaranteed money going into the 2022 offseason. Which would give them the flexibility to make their own trades during the draft with those picks as well.

It's not about the players. It's about the non-guaranteed contracts, the flexibility and it all happening before the switch over.

It's why in theory Rubio's expiring contract had less value than Bledsoe's non-guaranteed contract. Rubio could only be traded up until today. Bledsoe can be traded during the draft period, because he technically has a contract next year.

[The Sebastian Express]

Can you move Hart and/or Bledsoe for picks and not take back bad/longer-term salary? I have my doubts.

Not for picks. WITH picks. We can package our lottery pick(s) with them.

What's the decision date for Hart and Bledsoe's non-guaranteed deals? Before or after the draft?

They're after. Hart's is the 25th, Bledsoe's is the 30th and the draft is the 22nd.

[The Sebastian Express]

Not for picks. WITH picks. We can package our lottery pick(s) with them.

What's the decision date for Hart and Bledsoe's non-guaranteed deals? Before or after the draft?

They're after. Hart's is the 25th, Bledsoe's is the 30th and the draft is the 22nd.

Apologies, draft is the 23rd.

[Wizenheimer]

One would suspect Portland/Nurk will have extension talks prior to the end of the season that are
designed to either lower that cap hold number or to make a decision on his future in Portland. One
would think Portland would get something done if their was mutual interest in getting something done
for come day 1 of free agency, Portland will be ready to make some moves.

It'll be interesting to see what Portland does this summer with Dame for in the remaining games left
in the season, Simons if he finishes strong will be entrenched in the starting lineup and the moves then
will be how to build the team around him as opposed to Dame.

Here's the problem.

The Blazers are basically at around $80M-$82M in no doubter guaranteed salary next year. This money is for:
Lillard
Simons (cap hold)
Winslow
Little
Bledsoe (stretch & waive)
Louzada
Keon
G. Brown
Nicholson (stretch & waive)
Draft Pick cap holds probably about $8M-$9M

So... that leaves
Nurk at $18M cap hold
Hart $13M unguaranteed
to make decisions on.

The projected salary cap is $121M as far as I know. Renouncement of both Nurkic and Hart leaves us with $39M-$41M. A good amount with which to do some cool stuff. Absorb salary no problem and sound out assets for a potential big-time player. Bring back Hart and we're down to $26M-$28M. Still enough to do interesting stuff, but probably only one interesting move. Obviously without renouncing Nurk, we're down to about $8M-$10M and severely limited to the point where we'd probably be better just being over the salary cap and having access to the MLE.

I was cool with the CJ and NAW trade... however, I don't feel this team is setup well at all right now for the offseason. Either Nurkic or Hart should have been moved before the deadline. There are ways that the Blazers can still make things work... but they're waaaaaayyyy more limited with Nurkic on-board. I don't see any reason to play the game of waiting for him to explore the market while eating his cap-hold that really sucks for the team. Sign and trade is off the table due to hard capping.

Blazers have a 21M and a 7M TPE. So they'd have to renounce both of those exceptions. I think a strong case can be made that for a team like Portland, TPE's actually have more value than cap-space

and in a S&T the team that receives the player is the one that is hard-capped. So the Blazers could S&T Nurkic without that headache

[Wizenheimer]

Spoiler:

I know not everyone will agree but with Harden off the market..

I think we should make some real big ass toxic front-loaded offers to DeAndre Ayton and Miles Bridges and either force those owners to pay or blink and say goodbye.

Or even Mitchell Robinson.

I've looked at the Blazer cap next year from several angles. In order to make a max offer, even for the 25% rookie extension, the Blazers would have to renounce Nurkic & the two TPE's, and maybe even Simons. And risk that the other team would match

Are we sure about that with RFA's? Don't they only have to make those renouncements when the deal is about to be finalized (the other team hasn't matched). The Blazers would obviously have to be prepared to renounce all those players should the other team not match, but I'm not sure they have to renounce them just for the initial offer sheet that goes to the team holding the players rights. Would be curious to know the CBA rules for that timelines.

IIRC, and this could be from the last CBA, the rule is the RFA's cap-hold is either his actual CBA mandated cap-hold, or, the first year salary on his offer sheet, whichever is greater

[Blazinaway]

One would suspect Portland/Nurk will have extension talks prior to the end of the season that are
designed to either lower that cap hold number or to make a decision on his future in Portland. One
would think Portland would get something done if their was mutual interest in getting something done
for come day 1 of free agency, Portland will be ready to make some moves.

It'll be interesting to see what Portland does this summer with Dame for in the remaining games left
in the season, Simons if he finishes strong will be entrenched in the starting lineup and the moves then
will be how to build the team around him as opposed to Dame.

Here's the problem.

The Blazers are basically at around $80M-$82M in no doubter guaranteed salary next year. This money is for:
Lillard
Simons (cap hold)
Winslow
Little
Bledsoe (stretch & waive)
Louzada
Keon
G. Brown
Nicholson (stretch & waive)
Draft Pick cap holds probably about $8M-$9M

So... that leaves
Nurk at $18M cap hold
Hart $13M unguaranteed
to make decisions on.

The projected salary cap is $121M as far as I know. Renouncement of both Nurkic and Hart leaves us with $39M-$41M. A good amount with which to do some cool stuff. Absorb salary no problem and sound out assets for a potential big-time player. Bring back Hart and we're down to $26M-$28M. Still enough to do interesting stuff, but probably only one interesting move. Obviously without renouncing Nurk, we're down to about $8M-$10M and severely limited to the point where we'd probably be better just being over the salary cap and having access to the MLE.

I was cool with the CJ and NAW trade... however, I don't feel this team is setup well at all right now for the offseason. Either Nurkic or Hart should have been moved before the deadline. There are ways that the Blazers can still make things work... but they're waaaaaayyyy more limited with Nurkic on-board. I don't see any reason to play the game of waiting for him to explore the market while eating his cap-hold that really sucks for the team. Sign and trade is off the table due to hard capping.

Blazers have a 21M and a 7M TPE. So they'd have to renounce both of those exceptions. I think a strong case can be made that for a team like Portland, TPE's actually have more value than cap-space

agree on the TPE's likely having more value

[Wizenheimer]

Because you can move Hart during the draft with picks if needed, same thing with Bledsoe (who's guarantee date for 2022-2023 is AFTER the draft). I think not moving Nurkic is a mistake, though.

Portland would have to guarantee Hart's contract in order to trade. In Bledsoe's case, he can either be traded as a 3.9M salary or Portland would guarantee his final year and trade him as a 19M salary. IIRC, he would be like a BYC contract in that Portland would only get a trade credit for 3.9M while the other team would have to accept him as a 19M contract. So they'd need the space or a massive TPE. And it would have to happen before his guarantee date. I don't think it's an easy needle to thread. Maybe impossible. Which is probably why we're hearing rumblings about the Blazers buying out Bledsoe

[Brandon-Clyde]

Both Hart and Nurkic will also hold some value as as sign and trade pieces. For example if Portland made a sizable offer for Ayton or Bridges both Charlotte and Phoenix might want Nurkic in exchange rather than lose them for nothing.

[The Sebastian Express]

Read on Twitter

I'm glad Cronin and management said no to this asking price for Grant.

[Wizenheimer]

there will probably be no cap-space. There was probably never was going to be cap-space

right now the inclusive Blazer cap for next season is somewhere around 145-146M. Projected salary cap is 121M. So, Portland renouncing the non-Bird rights to Elleby, McLemore, and Smith puts the Blazers around 140-141M. NOT having the Pels 1st round pick would drop the Blazers down to 136-137M. Renouncing both TPE's drops Portland to around 110M. Hooray!! they now have 10-11M in cap-space!! by sacrificing the more valuable TPE's

but wait....that doesn't account for Bledsoe's 3.9M guarantee so Portland only has 6-7M in space. But wait, part 2....Blazers only have 10 players so they are assessed 2 roster charges dropping their space to 4-5M

ok then. They can renounce Josh Hart and they have 13M more, minus the 1M for the added roster charge and Portland is at 16-17M in cap-space

So then, the way to get enough space to approach a max offer would be renouncing Nurkic's rights, and shedding his 18M cap-hold (but adding another roster charge). That would get them at 33-34M in space. But 29-30M if they have the good fortune to have the Pels 1st conveyed this draft

now, I'm scribbling this from memory and I may have the numbers wrong. But I've see the free agent class and unless the Blazers are making a run at Zach LaVine, most of those moves aren't worth it. And, it would likely require renouncing the rights to Simons

[DusterBuster]

Read on Twitter

I'm glad Cronin and management said no to this asking price for Grant.

Same, that's overpriced for what he is. I would hope the Blazers have their sights set higher.