Simons vs Lillard?

[BNM]

Spoiler:

the previous 4 seasons, Dame's TS% has been:

.594
.588
.627
.623

and he's done that against a barrage of traps and doubles; against opposing defenses that have twisted to a total focus on Dame when he's on the floor. Those TS% marks are not the marks of a player who takes a lot of bad shots. Dame is an elite scorer who makes tough shots because defenses work hard to not allow him open shots. Simons has not faced that type of defensive focus. He might by the end of the season

for comparison. Ant's TS% last year and this year:

.589
.582

The difference in TS% is not due to shot selection, or even FG shooting. It's FTr. .

duhhh....damn right it is. Drawing fouls and converting from the FT line is a critical part of the game. It's simply inaccurate to say that FT rate is not due to shot selection. It is absolutely welded to shot selection. Shot selection is about choices and about style. Dame has chosen to not avoid contact (unlike CJ and Ant); instead, he seeks it out, at times, especially on drives into the paint. That's a style. The same style as just about all the greats have had

shooting percentages are not the same as shooting efficiency. And shooting efficiency is essentially the same as scoring efficiency. CJ usually had better shooting percentages; He almost always had a better eFG% than Dame (like Ant), but eFG% is a flawed craptastic stat because it doesn't account for FT's. CJ was/is a couple of tiers below Dame in shooting efficiency. And it was because of FT's

Dame's style has evolved too, and I think a large part of that was due to how much defenses focused on him. He got no air and the team ran almost no off-ball offense for him designed to create that air. Yet, despite always being the focus and always drawing the other team's best defender, and always having to create his own offense, as well as the team's, he was able to post the scoring efficiency he did the previous couple of seasons. To be sure, at times that produced some questionable shots, but even with those questionable shots, and all the defensive resistance, Dame was still elite as a scorer

more than that though was that CJ, and the rest of the Blazers other than Dame, were never able to overcome Portland's Achilles Heel. And that was that when a team, especially in the playoffs, had a game plan of 'stop-Dame-at-all-costs', it succeeded, time and time again. That's because CJ, with his better shooting percentages could not score at the rate Dame could and could not run the offense with any consistency. If CJ would have averaged 7 or 8 points from the FT line at those times, instead of 0,1 or 2, the result could have been different

That's where Simons may very well be better than CJ. He may, in the next season or two, be good enough that teams will not be able to double and trap Dame constantly while sliding a weak defender to Ant, like they always did with CJ. Ant has already shown better court vision than CJ (at least he has when driving right), and he seems to move quicker, dribble less, and make faster decisions. But yes, he really needs to dramatically improve his FT rate. He has way too much CJ on his dribble drives. The problem is, (and I had this debate with CJ fans for years) is that if CJ is a template, his fans kept assuring me that next season, always next season, CJ would improve his FT rate...and he never did. Hopefully, Ant will be different but it's show-me time, not trust-me time

Five lengthy paragraphs to basically say you agree with me. I did not, nor have I ever used eFG% for any purpose. Bringing it up in a response to my post is a strawman. I always use TS%, because it also includes FTs, which as I mentioned are still the most efficient way to score.

You also left out this part of my post:

"If he can double his current FTr, he could eclipse peak Dame in TS%. If he tripled his FTR (comparable to Dame), he would be a much more efficient scorer than peak Dame."

So yes, we both agree that increasing his FTr is vital to Simons becoming a more efficient scorer than Dame.

[Wizenheimer]

Five lengthy paragraphs to basically say you agree with me. I did not, nor have I ever used eFG% for any purpose. Bringing it up in a response to my post is a strawman. I always use TS%, because it also includes FTs, which as I mentioned are still the most efficient way to score.

it is not a strawman at all, it was completely germane because you mentioned Ant being better at 3pt% and 2pt%....which is eFG%. That's it's definition

by the way, if there was a strawman here it was you talking about my posting style and "5 paragraphs"

You also left out this part of my post:

"If he can double his current FTr, he could eclipse peak Dame in TS%. If he tripled his FTR (comparable to Dame), he would be a much more efficient scorer than peak Dame."

So yes, we both agree that increasing his FTr is vital to Simons becoming a more efficient scorer than Dame.

you say that as if it's simple to do. Simons is in his 4th season and his FT rate has dropped every single season:

2018-19 - .254
2019-20 - .172
2020-21 - .142
2021-22 - .132

now, I know a probable response to that is that "he is a starter now so things should be different". But as a starter, Ant's FT rate is only .146. That's about the same as last season and quite a bit less than the season before (his rookie season is irrelevant because of sample size).

Ant's career rate is .151. CJ's career rate is .160. CJ's best season in FT rate is only 20% better than his career mark. yet you're theorizing Ant with a 200% or 300% improvement; which would be 10-15 times greater than CJ's, and then have to be sustained, which is an entirely different gauge. And CJ has been well aware of this because he's mentioned it in every off-season as a point of improvement he needed to make...but never did

by the way, in the last 6 games, Ant's FT rate is .091 and that includes shooting 4 FT's on T's and illegal defense

[BNM]

it is not a strawman at all, it was completely germane because you mentioned Ant being better at 3pt% and 2pt%....which is eFG%. That's it's definition

Still a strawman in the context presented. I never mentioned eFG%, but in my very first two sentences I mentioned both TS% and FTr. Then I specifically said Ant needs to increase his FTr for his scoring efficiency to be as good or better, than Dames.

I also didn't say Ant is a better 2FG shooter than Dame, I said he's a better 2FG shooter AT THE SAME AGE. Not the same thing. Dame improved and Ant needs to do the same.

I'm done arguing with someone who agrees with my point. Especially someone who's response begins with a dismissive "duhhh...."

Welcome to ignore ****.

[Wizenheimer]

Welcome to ignore ****.

good then...I'll test the ignore function's thoroughness by continuing to respond to your posts.

for instance, since you're projecting Ant's ability to potentially double or triple his FT rate, can you think of any perimeter players that did anything close to that after 4 seasons in the league?

[HoopsFanAZ]

Let me try at this using no stats …

CJ doesn’t dunk or look to dunk. His lay-ups are either basic and coincidental or driving to the right on a wide angle, higher off the board after a semi-cradle … and that looks pretty cool. Otherwise, his shots, IMHO, are a function of having been a little guy who didn’t draw contact. A little guy who developed his handles, footwork, hesitations … which take time to perfect and to get the shot off. He got so good with creating space that he avoided contact, and trying to draw some now lacks that skill.

Simons is a slam dunk champ. Even not being a guy who seeks out contact, he has opportunities to get to the line. This season he has begun taking guys on in the paint and is still getting the shot off. He hits the three, has a nice midrange game that looks fairly natural and is going to the rim even in a crowd. Simons’ ceiling is MUCH higher than CJ’s both with the ball and without on O.

CJ’s time in college left his body closer to a finished product. Simons is taller and longer and more athletic. He has the time to fill out and even become a player at both ends. The way CJ handles on O does not lead me to say, “Hey, I bet he can play D, too.”

If the New Orleans pick arrives this summer, I’m fine with the trade. It isn’t an amazing return but it’s close enough.
With Norm, a two-way player whose game I liked a whole lot better got sent packing because of $$$ and years. Still don’t like it even if I mostly understand it.

[Sinobas]

Anfernee only averages 1.4 less FT attempts per 36 minutes at age 22 than Dame did at age 22 (his rookie year).

Dame steadily got better at that, and I think Ant can too, as he certainly has the athleticism.

[Wizenheimer]

CJ doesn’t dunk or look to dunk. His lay-ups are either basic and coincidental or driving to the right on a wide angle, higher off the board after a semi-cradle … and that looks pretty cool. Otherwise, his shots, IMHO, are a function of having been a little guy who didn’t draw contact. A little guy who developed his handles, footwork, hesitations … which take time to perfect and to get the shot off. He got so good with creating space that he avoided contact, and trying to draw some now lacks that skill.

Simons is a slam dunk champ. Even not being a guy who seeks out contact, he has opportunities to get to the line. This season he has begun taking guys on in the paint and is still getting the shot off. He hits the three, has a nice midrange game that looks fairly natural and is going to the rim even in a crowd..

just some numbers about that: for his career, 13.8% of Ant's shots are at the rim (0-3'); and 12.3% are in the 3-10' zone. Or, around 26% of his shots are within 10'. For his career, 16.8% of CJ's shots have been at the rim, and 15.2% have been in the 3-10' zone; that's 32% of CJ's shots within 10' compared to 26% for Ant

Now, this year has certainly been different for Ant than the previous 3 seasons. But if he was expanding his inside game as a starter you'd expect to see that the rate of his inside shots have increased over his norms this season. Instead, his at the rim percentage has dropped from 13.8% to 11.9%. And his shots in the 3-10' zone have dropped from 12.3% to 11.5%

again, that's comparing his career marks to this season so keep in mind, that his lower rates this season, when factored with his highest total FGA's mean his actual career marks were higher when the season started. So an even wider gap if you compare this season to his previous 3 seasons

Anfernee only averages 1.4 less FT attempts per 36 minutes at age 22 than Dame did at age 22 (his rookie year).

Dame steadily got better at that, and I think Ant can too, as he certainly has the athleticism.

there's some missing context there though. When Dame started his rookie season he had one summer league and one NBA training camp; and zero games of NBA experience

when Simons started this season, he had 3 summer leagues, 3 NBA training camps, and 170 games of NBA experience. Might be closer to compare 4th year Ant to 3rd year Dame, or maybe 2nd year Dame. That NBA experience advantage Ant had over Dame's Weber State experience is pretty substantial.
*****************************************************************

I think Ant will improve. He will probably get more comfortable absorbing contact. But he has pretty firmly established his playing style and at this point, and that style is similar to CJ's on dribble-drives. That's a tendency to search for open shot opportunities while quite often terminating the dribble before risking contact

and, while improvement in FT Rate is quite possible, expecting he can actually double or triple his FT rate starting in his 5th season is kind of crazy

I mean, if we're using Dame's rookie season as a gauge, he's had a remarkable improvement in his ability to draw fouls, yet his career FT rate is only 34% higher than his rookie season. And his best season in FT rate is only 54% higher than his rookie year. And Dame showed an affinity for attacking the hoop and absorbing contact right from the start. Ant has shown an affinity for avoiding contact

[LillardTime]

CJ doesn’t dunk or look to dunk. His lay-ups are either basic and coincidental or driving to the right on a wide angle, higher off the board after a semi-cradle … and that looks pretty cool. Otherwise, his shots, IMHO, are a function of having been a little guy who didn’t draw contact. A little guy who developed his handles, footwork, hesitations … which take time to perfect and to get the shot off. He got so good with creating space that he avoided contact, and trying to draw some now lacks that skill.

Simons is a slam dunk champ. Even not being a guy who seeks out contact, he has opportunities to get to the line. This season he has begun taking guys on in the paint and is still getting the shot off. He hits the three, has a nice midrange game that looks fairly natural and is going to the rim even in a crowd..

just some numbers about that: for his career, 13.8% of Ant's shots are at the rim (0-3'); and 12.3% are in the 3-10' zone. Or, around 26% of his shots are within 10'. For his career, 16.8% of CJ's shots have been at the rim, and 15.2% have been in the 3-10' zone; that's 32% of CJ's shots within 10' compared to 26% for Ant

Now, this year has certainly been different for Ant than the previous 3 seasons. But if he was expanding his inside game as a starter you'd expect to see that the rate of his inside shots have increased over his norms this season. Instead, his at the rim percentage has dropped from 13.8% to 11.9%. And his shots in the 3-10' zone have dropped from 12.3% to 11.5%

again, that's comparing his career marks to this season so keep in mind, that his lower rates this season, when factored with his highest total FGA's mean his actual career marks were higher when the season started. So an even wider gap if you compare this season to his previous 3 seasons

Anfernee only averages 1.4 less FT attempts per 36 minutes at age 22 than Dame did at age 22 (his rookie year).

Dame steadily got better at that, and I think Ant can too, as he certainly has the athleticism.

there's some missing context there though. When Dame started his rookie season he had one summer league and one NBA training camp; and zero games of NBA experience

when Simons started this season, he had 3 summer leagues, 3 NBA training camps, and 170 games of NBA experience. Might be closer to compare 4th year Ant to 3rd year Dame, or maybe 2nd year Dame. That NBA experience advantage Ant had over Dame's Weber State experience is pretty substantial.
*****************************************************************

I think Ant will improve. He will probably get more comfortable absorbing contact. But he has pretty firmly established his playing style and at this point, and that style is similar to CJ's on dribble-drives. That's a tendency to search for open shot opportunities while quite often terminating the dribble before risking contact

and, while improvement in FT Rate is quite possible, expecting he can actually double or triple his FT rate starting in his 5th season is kind of crazy

I mean, if we're using Dame's rookie season as a gauge, he's had a remarkable improvement in his ability to draw fouls, yet his career FT rate is only 34% higher than his rookie season. And his best season in FT rate is only 54% higher than his rookie year. And Dame showed an affinity for attacking the hoop and absorbing contact right from the start. Ant has shown an affinity for avoiding contact

Dame had 4 years at Weber State, not just playing basketball but also being involved in their strength and conditioning program. Simons had 0 years at college. In Dame’s rookie year he was 22, Simons is currently 22. Dame came into the league much more physically mature that Simons did and it has only been this past offseason where it was noticeable that Ant came back with a much stronger stature. Sure Simons has had 4 years in the Blazers system but when he arrived at Portland he was a baby. Just because he had insane hops and explosiveness, doesn’t mean he had the physical strength to get into the paint and rough it with the bigs of the league. In terms of stature he is much more like CJ in that he is lean whereas Dame is much sturdier.

The rate of growth Simons showed last year has now exploded this year since becoming a starter and is the only thing that matters. It would be crazy to say that Simons has maxed out on his potential and is the finished product. All good players go away during the off-season and add something to their game. For Ant, now that he has established himself as a player and his bread and butter which is his shooting, he has the chance to work on things like building his frame so he absorbing contact better and get to the line more while finding that balance of retaining his explosiveness. He will never be built like someone like Dame or Harden who are much thicker through the body. Even if Simons “only” becomes 4/5 of Dame, that is still a brilliant player. Someone ought to give Olshey some credit for making that pick.

[Norm2953]

Let's wait and see when we begin to compare Dame/Ant for Ant has only really been playing consistent
minutes since Dame went on the shelf.

I do think both Dame and CJ would be very proud in Ant's breakthrough season. Add in Chauncey who
as a former championship level PG, has helped Ant immensely, he's only going to get better. Let's just
see if Dame and Ant can work effectively together for if not a trade likely will happen.

[Wizenheimer]

Dame had 4 years at Weber State, not just playing basketball but also being involved in their strength and conditioning program. Simons had 0 years at college. In Dame’s rookie year he was 22, Simons is currently 22. Dame came into the league much more physically mature that Simons did and it has only been this past offseason where it was noticeable that Ant came back with a much stronger stature. Sure Simons has had 4 years in the Blazers system but when he arrived at Portland he was a baby. Just because he had insane hops and explosiveness, doesn’t mean he had the physical strength to get into the paint and rough it with the bigs of the league. In terms of stature he is much more like CJ in that he is lean whereas Dame is much sturdier.

ok

doesn't change the reality that Simons had 3 NBA off-seasons while Dame had 1. Practicing against NBA players prepares a player for NBA action a hell of a lot better than practicing against Weber St. players

and, there's a world of difference between 104 games in the Big Sky Conference and 170 games in the actual NBA. Besides that, Simons did work on his craft at image academy

The rate of growth Simons showed last year has now exploded this year since becoming a starter and is the only thing that matters. It would be crazy to say that Simons has maxed out on his potential and is the finished product..

well then it's a good thing I didn't say that

what I did say, or at least tried to, is that attacking the rim and drawing fouls is not a matter of maturity, it's a matter of style and aggression. You can have that style and aggression at 170 lbs as well as at 220 lbs.

Simons is a hell of a lot bigger than Allen Iverson, Kyrie Irving, and Trae Young; and the same size as Ja Morant (maybe bigger)

how do their career FT rates look?

Iverson .410
Young .400
Morant .355
Irving .242
Simons .132

now, Simons has a changed role this year for sure. But his FT rate this year, as a starter, is only .146. That's a slight improvement over .132, but there's not much indication of a vast leap

but since we know that FT rate is tied to attempts at the rim, where does Simons rank with those guys in rate of shots st the rim vs all shots?

Morant 35.1%
Iverson 28.7%
Irving 24.1%
Young 19.6%
Simons 13.8%....BUT, only 11.9% this year with his expanded role

it's certainly not a good indicator that as Ant's role has expanded, he's attacking the rim less. Further, his FG% at the rim this year is lower than his career mark

you can certainly make a case that he's dealing with adjustments to his role. And I am actually optimistic about his upside and the potential of a Dame and Ant back court, especially with Hart as the 3rd guard and Billups as a defensive coach. I think there is a pretty decent chance Dame/Ant won't just be a reboot of Dame/CJ

my main point was when it comes to his upside in attacking the rim and drawing fouls, big leaps in those areas are very rare. Ant would have to dramatically change his game to make big leaps. He's not a rookie, he's in the last third of his 4th season. Dame's career FT rate is less than 35% higher than his rookie rate, and less than 17% higher than his 3rd season. In Dame's rookie season, 26.2% of his shots were at the rim. His career mark is 27.3%. Where Dame has made a vast improvement at the rim is in conversion rate. His rookie season his FG% at the rim was .531; last season it was .631. This is where Simons can improve

I'm not saying it's impossible Simons can dramatically increase his FT rate and his shots at the rim. Just that's it's very unlikely. He can certainly make incremental improvements and any will help. But again, those two areas are not about experience and maturity as much as they are about style. And Simons has developed his style already

[Norm2953]

Ant was in a Jermaine O'Neal situation for with established veterans ahead of him, he wasn't going to get
a chance at meaningful minutes and likely would have left in RFA if CJ and Norm were still on the roster.

Dame's situation was radically different in 2012 with only Nolan Smith and Ronnie Price on the roster.

Interesting to read BE's re-do of the 2018 draft for both Ant and GTJ rise into the mid-lottery in the re-do.
Whatever criticisms of NO as a GM, he nailed the 2018 draft for Portland.

[GEE]

I still believe that while stats are great, the eyeball test is still the best test. But who's better, doesn't really matter due to their timelines, and that word... "Timelines", is the difference and will lead to having to answer the bigger questions every Blazer fan needs to ask themselves...

Surely everyone has read the Wiretap Headline of Dame by now, but I'd recommend reading the whole interview for context purposes at least. I read it twice, and found the last sentence or two to be the most informative: Dame does not want to leave, Dame still wants to win a title here, but he also poses the question of, "If that's STILL the plan", or something like that(will edit later). Hints at continued building of the team "around him" in the interview, and that is where I get concerned.

So far, Cronin and the Vulcans, through their actions, have not tipped their hand as to which direction this franchise is headed. Like we have two horses in a race; We seem to be in a position to cater to Dame 100%, if willing to trade any and all future assets this off-season, and make a run with Dame over the next 2-4 years. How far would YOU FANS be willing to go to make every wish of Dame's come true? I personally worry about this more than anything: How willing will the Brass be, to mortgage the future and what we are currently seeing at Dame's request? Would you be willing to move Simons, if it brought back a PG13, or a similar star name? A lottery pick in a better than average draft for a Grant type talent?

Or... Will Cronin and the Vulcans draw some sort of line with Dame? Are we trying to win one with a Dame/Simons pairing gong forward... Is THAT really the plan? Maybe. Will Dame be willing to have the attitude CJ had in his statement when he returned back, basically saying he wanted to add to what is already working, or will Dame change the style of play, in a negative way? Size on defense will instantly become an issue regardless, because just like with CJ, Simons is now way too good to be a 6th man.

Also, I mentioned Dame maybe questioning himself: Wants to win one here, but how bad does he want to win that title if he can't win one here? Would he ever really WANT to uproot for a few years to do it somewhere else? I think good opportunities for to go to a Philly or Boston may have sailed on, and time is not on Dame's side of things. Ultimately, Dame doesn't want to leave, even if it means not winning a championship.

With that... Bigger question is for Cronin and the Vulcans: Will they be willing to largely scrap what we've seen on the court for the last two months, and flip it for another star player of two to put around Dame? I honestly am asking, cause I don't know the answer, but I hope the hell not.

For all parties including Dame, I've thought for some time now that a good PR campaign is all it would really take for Dame to save face, and was hoping Dame would ultimately get moved to a Championship team, but with the recent REALGM Wiretap Headline and the linked interview, I get the feeling Dame is digging in, and still asking for star-power. Whether Cronin plays along remains to be seen. I hope to god not. Also to consider, the better destinations available to Dame are either gone or are going away fast, leaving only the less desirable and non-contending ones.

I think the next few months are going to become increasingly ugly when it comes to matters regarding Dame, and it's unfortunate. It will take a needle-threading effort, to avoid doing so. My only hope is that we shut-down our best players for the future, and feature DAME ONLY, for the remainder of the season. Let him average 30+ for the final 30 games or whatever. Tank in the process. That's what I'd do if I were Cronin.

[HoopsFanAZ]

[…]

what I did say, or at least tried to, is that attacking the rim and drawing fouls is not a matter of maturity, it's a matter of style and aggression. You can have that style and aggression at 170 lbs as well as at 220 lbs.
Simons is a hell of a lot bigger than Allen Iverson, Kyrie Irving, and Trae Young; and the same size as Ja Morant (maybe bigger)
how do their career FT rates look?

Iverson .410
Young .400
Morant .355
Irving .242
Simons .132

now, Simons has a changed role this year for sure. But his FT rate this year, as a starter, is only .146. That's a slight improvement over .132, but there's not much indication of a vast leap
But since we know that FT rate is tied to attempts at the rim, where does Simons rank with those guys in rate of shots st the rim vs all shots?

Morant 35.1%
Iverson 28.7%
Irving 24.1%
Young 19.6%
Simons 13.8%....BUT, only 11.9% this year with his expanded role

it's certainly not a good indicator that as Ant's role has expanded, he's attacking the rim less. Further, his FG% at the rim this year is lower than his career mark

You can certainly make a case that he's dealing with adjustments to his role. And I am actually optimistic about his upside and the potential of a Dame and Ant back court, especially with Hart as the 3rd guard and Billups as a defensive coach. I think there is a pretty decent chance Dame/Ant won't just be a reboot of Dame/CJ

My main point was when it comes to his upside in attacking the rim and drawing fouls, big leaps in those areas are very rare. Ant would have to dramatically change his game to make big leaps. He's not a rookie, he's in the last third of his 4th season. Dame's career FT rate is less than 35% higher than his rookie rate, and less than 17% higher than his 3rd season. In Dame's rookie season, 26.2% of his shots were at the rim. His career mark is 27.3%. Where Dame has made a vast improvement at the rim is in conversion rate. His rookie season his FG% at the rim was .531; last season it was .631. This is where Simons can improve

I'm not saying it's impossible Simons can dramatically increase his FT rate and his shots at the rim. Just that's it's very unlikely. He can certainly make incremental improvements and any will help. But again, those two areas are not about experience and maturity as much as they are about style. And Simons has developed his style already

Thank you for the numbers,Wiz. They’re appreciated.
Eye tests are important AND numbers are important. Moreso? It depends on the eyes and the numbers. You’ve got REASONABLE numbers.
I, too, have hopes (and even expectations) Simons becomes a much more complete player than CJ. The way he is attacking the D going into the paint looks like he’s serious in developing it. CJ will never [IMHO] have that style just as Simons doesn’t have to go Full-Iverson or Westbrook … since he looks like a shooter (cf. a scorer).

It’s a good question and argument with an answer in 2 years or less. By then, Simons game and style will be solidified (with room to add tweaks and skills here and there). [Then, it’s “He is what he is” with NBA years adding up.]

[Norm2953]

There are times when I wonder if a team like the Magic which is a collection of 6-10 guys throughout
their roster would be open to a trade which Orlando native Anfernee Simons ends up in Orlando and
Portland and Orlando switch places in the draft, allowing Portland to draft Holmgren (or whoever
Portland views as the best fit for their roster).

That might make the Magic really tough with Simons/Suggs in their backcourt and they can sort out
their collection of 6-10 guys they already have on their roster. Portland would (hopefully) get the
player they thought they were getting from the 2017 draft in Holmgren.

[DusterBuster]

Dame for real isn’t given the respect he deserves. He’s recognized as one of the 75 best players and has shots so historic for the league they are working it into all star events. He’s still loyal here… enjoy that as fans… that doesn’t happen often.

I’ve legit come around on the Dame Simons duo… maybe it’ll be a repeat of Dame/CJ, but I’m willing to at least give it a shot with an open mind for Dame. **** the advanced stats or salaries, just give it a shot, cause Dame is awesome, Simons Is awesome… so why not?!…

[DusterBuster]

There are times when I wonder if a team like the Magic which is a collection of 6-10 guys throughout
their roster would be open to a trade which Orlando native Anfernee Simons ends up in Orlando and
Portland and Orlando switch places in the draft, allowing Portland to draft Holmgren (or whoever
Portland views as the best fit for their roster).

That might make the Magic really tough with Simons/Suggs in their backcourt and they can sort out
their collection of 6-10 guys they already have on their roster. Portland would (hopefully) get the
player they thought they were getting from the 2017 draft in Holmgren.

I think Holmgren is gonna be a bust. Calling my shot right now on that. I’ve been burned too many times on Gonzaga prospects that I’ve been told will be awesome and do nothing but flame out spectacularly in the NBA.

Simons will be a better NBA pro than Holmgren… bookmark this post if you care about that kind of thing.

[GEE]

There are times when I wonder if a team like the Magic which is a collection of 6-10 guys throughout
their roster would be open to a trade which Orlando native Anfernee Simons ends up in Orlando and
Portland and Orlando switch places in the draft, allowing Portland to draft Holmgren (or whoever
Portland views as the best fit for their roster).

That might make the Magic really tough with Simons/Suggs in their backcourt and they can sort out
their collection of 6-10 guys they already have on their roster. Portland would (hopefully) get the
player they thought they were getting from the 2017 draft in Holmgren.

THIS!

This is the exact kind of thinking that I most worry about... Moving Simons to appease Dame. It is the nightmare scenario for me.

As for comparisons... Dame has mostly been a combo-guard like a Monte Ellis, and has rarely been asked to play defense since Nate got shown the door. Great shooter/scorer, but BBIQ has always been suspect IMO.
CJ has rarely been asked to be the PG for this team, but rather the starting SG whose job it is to shoot, and shoot some more. CJ's knock is that he's undersized, and got killed on defense against bigger 2s on a regular basis and especially in the playoffs. You can get away with one bad defender, but not two.
Simons is a freaky good shooter, learning the PG position from one of the greats. Time will tell mostly, but I can easily see him as a 50/40/90, Steve Nash type, with the athleticism of a Westbrick. NOT TRADING HIM!

[wjun15]

Dame for real isn’t given the respect he deserves. He’s recognized as one of the 75 best players and has shots so historic for the league they are working it into all star events. He’s still loyal here… enjoy that as fans… that doesn’t happen often.

I’ve legit come around on the Dame Simons duo… maybe it’ll be a repeat of Dame/CJ, but I’m willing to at least give it a shot with an open mind for Dame. **** the advanced stats or salaries, just give it a shot, cause Dame is awesome, Simons Is awesome… so why not?!…

I think it's because it's glaringly obvious you can't run two 6"3 - 6 "3.5 at the 2 that don't play good defense and expect to win a chip when your going against guys that are legit 6"6 6"7 with strong frames.

Also the purpose of trading Dame is because his value is only going to get lower every year. what people fail to realize is he is not going to be the next Chris Paul because Dame and Cp3 share 0 similarities in how they play. Dame always relied on north south explosive first step and quickness while Cp3 relies much more on craftiness and smarts without using much athleticism. If you look at players that rely on first step they usually do not do well once their early 30s are gone...Dame is a great shooter which will keep him relevant but he will not be as successful as cp3 in his mid 30s.

right now Dame has done so much for the franchise and city and that's why the gm is prolly not going to trade Dame and give simons the reign. However, loyalty aside from a purely basketball perspective the Blazers should trade dame for a young star that plays the sf pf c position to create a more well balanced team that can contend not for 3 years but for 10 years down the line.

[Wizenheimer]

Spoiler:

Dame for real isn’t given the respect he deserves. He’s recognized as one of the 75 best players and has shots so historic for the league they are working it into all star events. He’s still loyal here… enjoy that as fans… that doesn’t happen often.

I’ve legit come around on the Dame Simons duo… maybe it’ll be a repeat of Dame/CJ, but I’m willing to at least give it a shot with an open mind for Dame. **** the advanced stats or salaries, just give it a shot, cause Dame is awesome, Simons Is awesome… so why not?!…

I think it's because it's glaringly obvious you can't run two 6"3 - 6 "3.5 at the 2 that don't play good defense and expect to win a chip when your going against guys that are legit 6"6 6"7 with strong frames.

wut?

Blazers will be 'running' Simons and Hart. Hart is very good at defense. Besides that, how many teams have SG's that are "legit 6"6 6"7 with strong frames"...and that actually use those strong frames to punish defenders??

* Utah has Conley and Mitchell...a smaller back court than Portland
* Suns have 6'4.5 Booker but he doesn't play bully-ball
* Warriors have 6'7 Klay Thompson and 6'3.5 Poole, but neither play bully-ball
* Memphis has 6'6 Dillon Brooks, when healthy, and he will play some bully-ball, some of the time

you get the point and I'm not going to go thru the rest of the league. I just don't think there are very many bully-ball shooting guards

I'll admit, I have often pointed out the defensive 'short-comings' of the Dame/CJ duo. But that was in the context of their poor fit and redundancy on offense. In that context, the poor defense was the straw that broke backs. Ant and CJ are not identical players on offense

but more than that is this: in 2017-18 Portland ranked 8th in defense in the NBA. And that was with Dame/CJ as starters and Stotts and his passive defense. The key to that, and I think it was accidental since olshey never valued defense much, was that the BLazers did not have defensive holes in the rotation other than Dame/CJ. Let me repeat....a team with Dame/CJ starting, Napier & Connaughton as the backups, and Stotts as coach, had the 8th best defense in the league. Dame/Ant will have a much different equation than Dame/CJ because Dame/CJ never had a 3rd guard in the rotation like Hart, and they never had a coach like Billups

Also the purpose of trading Dame is because his value is only going to get lower every year

as to Dame's 'declining trade value: I DON"T CARE. I don't give a sht or a flying fk. It's irrelevant; as irrelevant as Duncan's declining trade value or Dirk's declining trade value. Portland won't trade Dame unless he demands to be traded and it sure is looking like that won't happen. We've seen enough anti-Blazer flappage out of Clyde's big mouth to know that Dame is the best Blazer ever, even without a championship to show for it. I'm convinced Portland will respond to Dame's loyalty to Portland with equal loyalty to Dame. As they should

what people fail to realize is he is not going to be the next Chris Paul because Dame and Cp3 share 0 similarities in how they play. Dame always relied on north south explosive first step and quickness while Cp3 relies much more on craftiness and smarts without using much athleticism.

I don't think anybody was saying that Dame and CP3 are the same players. Only that, considering CP3 is 5-6 years older having played 400 more games over 7 more seasons it bodes well for Dame's future

I don't agree with your characterizations of their games either. CP3 has probably lost a step on defense, but he hasn't lost any on offense. It's also a bit crazy to say CP3 doesn't have much athleticism. And the way that both Dame and CP3 get that 1st step on defenders is primarily thru the PnR and screens. Dame does not have some elite otherworldly 1st step. I also think it's a bit bogus to credit CP3 with cleverness and guile, but not credit Dame with any

this entire "Dame is declining", "Dame is over the hill" narrative is based on one thing: how he played this season with an injured abdomen. An injury severe enough to warrant surgery. That's the foundation of the 'trade-Dame' narrative. But here's the thing: less than 10 months ago Dame averaged 34 points and 10 assists in the playoffs; he had a PER of 30.6 and a TS% of .660. He led all playoff performers in winshares/48, OBPM, and BPM. If Dame was on the decline, he wouldn't have done that. But more than that is it's just not credible, at all, in any way, that Dame had any significant decline in the 5 months between that playoff series and the start of this season

[Wizenheimer]

This is the exact kind of thinking that I most worry about... Moving Simons to appease Dame. It is the nightmare scenario for me.

LOL...c'mon man

your fairly persistent vague and not so vague anti-Dame screeds are kinda of amusing in a 'well, this is predictable' sort of way. But what dark place did you pull this paranoia out of?

can you point to even one time in Dame's 10 year career that Dame wanted and asked for a teammate to be traded? Just once? The opposite is actually true in that Dame has been accused, over and over, of having too much loyalty to teammates and coaches. In this case, he's been Ant's mentor since Ant was drafted and has nothing but good things to say about Ant

but you're worried that behind the scenes Dame is lobbying to Ant for be traded? That's crazy

I remember that way back in 2012, the day of the draft when it was announced that Portland took Dame, 3 or 4 posters here went ballistic big-time, saying it was the worst mistake in franchise history. It was a wasted pick and Lillard would be a bust. I'm really beginning to wonder if you were one of those posters

As for comparisons... Dame has mostly been a combo-guard like a Monte Ellis. Great shooter/scorer, but BBIQ has always been suspect IMO.

LOL...case rested