OT: Crypto, Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, Investments, IRAs & Finances, etc.

[Garbagelo]

The hot play is still NFTs but has emigrated to AVAX chain

Making great yield on Pizza game https://pizza.game/ while the NFTs keep rising. Premise of the game is to grow your pizzeria to create more pizza so you can sell on the open market. Pizza itself is a key currency to grow your pizzeria.

Waiting on RYU to launch their yield farm/breeding as well https://twitter.com/RyuNFT

Gamefi is here

[SA37]

So I guess you are expecting an even bigger drop in the market at some point in the next ~6 months? Any reason you don't have Apple?

I really don't know. If I HAD to take a guess, I would say yes. Russia, fed-hikes, and there's always potential for more Covid-variants and China news. Oh, and mid-term elections.

But I mostly cashed out of a lot of positions because I do plan on buying a house and a new car. So, I didn't feel comfortable parking that much cash in equities.

What about you, what do you think?

As far as Apple, I have to do more DD on them. But at the moment, I still like Microsoft, Nvidia, Google better. I haven't found a reason why I should buy Apple over those 3. I know Apple has some more under-the-radar health devices (not fitness stuff, but actual healthcare equipment/devices). I need to read up on that some more. I believe Steve Jobs foresaw Apple going in that direction.

And my retirement accounts are all index funds, so I have some Apple.

Good luck with both the house and car search!

I like you see a lot of potential bumps in the road, especially with multiple rate hikes not too far down the road. It's so hard to even hazard a guess as to how the big whales might react to a higher-than-expected rate hike or anything Russia-related. The market seems very detached from any sort of logical, grounded reading of events and the hyper-reactive activity we're seeing shows just how speculative the market has become. The logical part of me says that if the US is really committed to re-shoring a lot of the supply chain and rebuilding its manufacturing capabilities, there will be plenty of long-term investment opportunities there. However, financial institutions have become addicted to the instantly-profitable, extractive economy that I am not sure enough private money will flow there without massive government investment. Without that government investment, I can only assume there will be a handful of companies that will monopolize production capacity and those companies will stand to be massive winners. Still, I think we'll see a bit more money flow into slightly more productive, established companies and into the financial sector (where they can still extract large profits) and there will be a bit less money for startups and other companies that forego profits for growth.

The threat to all of this is the threat of strong antitrust action. I am not sure the Dems will have much support from the Republicans beyond the scope of Big Tech and social media platforms. Politicians seem to be most concerned about controlling the narrative through media than anything else, but inflation, price fixing, and public sentiment/backlash about the economy is forcing them to think about monopolies, monopsonies, and market concentration. A good start would be breaking up 2 of the 4 big companies (Meta/FB and Amazon) and closing the toll road that is Apple's app store. However, to see a real impact, it would have to go beyond that and include breaking up the airline industry, Big Ag, and some companies that dominate the production of every day goods.

As far as Apple goes, they are creeping into healthcare equipment and devices and they also have dipped their toes into the VR/AR space and are rumored to be working on EVs. The Achilles heel is their dependence on Chinese manufacturing, but otherwise they are a vertical company that is going to be able to lock everyone into their eco system via their software, which you will access via expensive hardware. This is essentially what Microsoft did, except they have had less success than Apple in creating hardware everyone wants. Once you're locked in, they'll be able to extract even more ad revenue from companies and they'll have another toll road companies will need to pay to access customers. This is where I start to see it making sense for them to buy a company like Peloton: it's health-related and the high-tech nature of it would go perfectly with the gamification (Apple TV/VR/AR/potentially crypto?) and work-from-home push we're seeing.

[dakomish23]

Watch on YouTube

[Stannis]

The hot play is still NFTs but has emigrated to AVAX chain

Making great yield on Pizza game https://pizza.game/ while the NFTs keep rising. Premise of the game is to grow your pizzeria to create more pizza so you can sell on the open market. Pizza itself is a key currency to grow your pizzeria.

Waiting on RYU to launch their yield farm/breeding as well https://twitter.com/RyuNFT

Gamefi is here

You think AVAX is a good coin to own to get some NFT exposure?

Not sure I have the knowledge to flip NFTs and gaming coins like you. It seems like a fast-moving sector. But just reading up on AVAX, it seems like an ok coin to hold.

[Stannis]

I like you see a lot of potential bumps in the road, especially with multiple rate hikes not too far down the road. It's so hard to even hazard a guess as to how the big whales might react to a higher-than-expected rate hike or anything Russia-related. The market seems very detached from any sort of logical, grounded reading of events and the hyper-reactive activity we're seeing shows just how speculative the market has become. The logical part of me says that if the US is really committed to re-shoring a lot of the supply chain and rebuilding its manufacturing capabilities, there will be plenty of long-term investment opportunities there. However, financial institutions have become addicted to the instantly-profitable, extractive economy that I am not sure enough private money will flow there without massive government investment. Without that government investment, I can only assume there will be a handful of companies that will monopolize production capacity and those companies will stand to be massive winners. Still, I think we'll see a bit more money flow into slightly more productive, established companies and into the financial sector (where they can still extract large profits) and there will be a bit less money for startups and other companies that forego profits for growth.

The threat to all of this is the threat of strong antitrust action. I am not sure the Dems will have much support from the Republicans beyond the scope of Big Tech and social media platforms. Politicians seem to be most concerned about controlling the narrative through media than anything else, but inflation, price fixing, and public sentiment/backlash about the economy is forcing them to think about monopolies, monopsonies, and market concentration. A good start would be breaking up 2 of the 4 big companies (Meta/FB and Amazon) and closing the toll road that is Apple's app store. However, to see a real impact, it would have to go beyond that and include breaking up the airline industry, Big Ag, and some companies that dominate the production of everyday goods.

As far as Apple goes, they are creeping into healthcare equipment and devices and they also have dipped their toes into the VR/AR space and are rumored to be working on EVs. The Achilles heel is their dependence on Chinese manufacturing, but otherwise they are a vertical company that is going to be able to lock everyone into their eco system via their software, which you will access via expensive hardware. This is essentially what Microsoft did, except they have had less success than Apple in creating hardware everyone wants. Once you're locked in, they'll be able to extract even more ad revenue from companies and they'll have another toll road companies will need to pay to access customers. This is where I start to see it making sense for them to buy a company like Peloton: it's health-related and the high-tech nature of it would go perfectly with the gamification (Apple TV/VR/AR/potentially crypto?) and work-from-home push we're seeing.

I think Airlines should stay like they are. It's an industry that's hard to stay profitable in. From a little reading (I could be wrong), but I believe the 80s and 90s crashes had a bunch of airlines that tanked with the market. I think it's ok to have a solid 4 in the USA. And Frontier and Spirit just merged which should make things a little more competitive actually. And the lockdowns, mandates, restrictions didn't help them either. I wouldn't be surprised to see an Alligent-Jet Blue merger next. Mergers and acquisitions are helping the current market imho.

I would like to see Apple acquire true healthcare companies like Teladoc or even DexCom. I don't consider Peloton a healthcare company. And Peloton is going through a transition to focus more on the streaming/subscriptions instead of the equipment, which is a wise decision imo. The equipment seems like a lot of overhead. It's not something I would want to own right now, especially if I was Apple or Amazon who are already having supply constraint issues. Essentially, Apple would be buying Peloton for their userbase, which would be good. But I'm not sure if it would be a good idea at this point in time.

[Garbagelo]

The hot play is still NFTs but has emigrated to AVAX chain

Making great yield on Pizza game https://pizza.game/ while the NFTs keep rising. Premise of the game is to grow your pizzeria to create more pizza so you can sell on the open market. Pizza itself is a key currency to grow your pizzeria.

Waiting on RYU to launch their yield farm/breeding as well https://twitter.com/RyuNFT

Gamefi is here

You think AVAX is a good coin to own to get some NFT exposure?

Not sure I have the knowledge to flip NFTs and gaming coins like you. It seems like a fast-moving sector. But just reading up on AVAX, it seems like an ok coin to hold.

It would definitely benefit from a run but the upside is limited because it has already gone up by so much in the past year

[dakomish23]

I know the advice is to buy a hold forever. But I'm honestly really lucky I never took that advice. I sold a lot of "good" companies for a profit like PayPal, Etsy, Pinterest because I just think they lost their moat. And they tanked hard. Also, I sold a lot of BS like Virgin Galactic and BlackBerry.

I'm not gonna just sit here a brag though. I still lost a lot on options. And made some crappy moves with $SFT and sold $AMC too early before their soar. I also sold shipping companies like $ZIM way too early.

I'm sooo close to liquidating a lot more now, but just can't because I'm basically only in the mega-caps like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, TSM, and ASML. I like their moats. These are literally my only individual stocks lol. I used to have a stock portfolio of over 20 stocks. I'm thinking about trimming my SP500 and VTI but I only hold those in retirement accounts.

I did open a new position in $SMH (semi-conductor ETF) because I'm bullish on chip companies long-term (much more than the QQQ and ARK tech stocks). I didn't want to be too much in cash. And the SMH fits my agenda and outlook.

I do have an actively traded account where I trade steel, copper, and aluminum stocks. I work in the industry so it's just something I know. I did sell all of $AA today, which is the last of my aluminum stocks. With what's going on in Russia and China though, I could see it going even higher.

Cleveland Cliffs reports Friday, and the CEO usually does a good job on earnings. I'm eyeing an exit here tbh. The market usually keeps these stocks on a short leash. And they can only beat earnings 4 times a year...

I've never invested/traded in an increasing interest-rate environment tbh. So I know nothing. But I still think the market hasn't "valued" it in yet. Lot of the big banks are predicting 5-7 rate hikes in 2022-2024.

If you like moats, you should look at Broadridge ticker BR

I worked there for 8 years. They have a monopoly on investor communications. Every time ppl thought a change in regulation or technology adoption would hurt them, they’ve found a way to make the new scenario even more profitable. They had so much cash they just kept buying businesses. When they got spun off from ADP, they were at $24 / share. I was too naive and didn’t buy it then. Then I got in around the 50’s but was too impatient

Now I’m literally a guy who checks my stocks maybe 2x a month instead of being rash. I wish this guy had that opportunity.

[Stannis]

It would definitely benefit from a run but the upside is limited because it has already gone up by so much in the past year

Went ahead and bought AVAX and it's been up a lot. Almost up 25% in just a few days. It seems like a better investment than DOT and even ETH (which I sold) at this point. I've been reading about some of the games on this platform, and I really like the idea of the classic play-to-earn instead of the pay-to-win model that has been dominating mainstream gaming this last decade. It seems like a good coin for somebody like me to invest in.


Also, I bought puts options on Roblox stock because you've been mentioning these metaverse/gaming coins. So, thanks for that! Lot of these coins are still low market cap with high players, while Roblox was valued at like 40b before the dip today. I made quite a bit today. The thesis behind my put options was Crypto will be the future of metaverse/gaming. I'm not saying Roblox doesn't have a place, but that valuation was nutz. And I don't think it will ever reach a market share that would justify that kind of valuation.

[Garbagelo]

It would definitely benefit from a run but the upside is limited because it has already gone up by so much in the past year

Went ahead and bought AVAX and it's been up a lot. Almost up 25% in just a few days. It seems like a better investment than DOT and even ETH (which I sold) at this point. I've been reading about some of the games on this platform, and I really like the idea of the classic play-to-earn instead of the pay-to-win model that has been dominating mainstream gaming this last decade. It seems like a good coin for somebody like me to invest in.


Also, I bought puts options on Roblox stock because you've been mentioning these metaverse/gaming coins. So, thanks for that! Lot of these coins are still low market cap with high players, while Roblox was valued at like 40b before the dip today. I made quite a bit today. The thesis behind my put options was Crypto will be the future of metaverse/gaming. I'm not saying Roblox doesn't have a place, but that valuation was nutz. And I don't think it will ever reach a market share that would justify that kind of valuation.

Next play will probably be on the application layer of Fantom (FTM)

Big project launching next week made by the best dev in defi

[Stannis]

It would definitely benefit from a run but the upside is limited because it has already gone up by so much in the past year

Went ahead and bought AVAX and it's been up a lot. Almost up 25% in just a few days. It seems like a better investment than DOT and even ETH (which I sold) at this point. I've been reading about some of the games on this platform, and I really like the idea of the classic play-to-earn instead of the pay-to-win model that has been dominating mainstream gaming this last decade. It seems like a good coin for somebody like me to invest in.


Also, I bought puts options on Roblox stock because you've been mentioning these metaverse/gaming coins. So, thanks for that! Lot of these coins are still low market cap with high players, while Roblox was valued at like 40b before the dip today. I made quite a bit today. The thesis behind my put options was Crypto will be the future of metaverse/gaming. I'm not saying Roblox doesn't have a place, but that valuation was nutz. And I don't think it will ever reach a market share that would justify that kind of valuation.

Next play will probably be on the application layer of Fantom (FTM)

Big project launching next week made by the best dev in defi

Is FTM just gonna be a quick flip? You got a price target?

[Garbagelo]

Went ahead and bought AVAX and it's been up a lot. Almost up 25% in just a few days. It seems like a better investment than DOT and even ETH (which I sold) at this point. I've been reading about some of the games on this platform, and I really like the idea of the classic play-to-earn instead of the pay-to-win model that has been dominating mainstream gaming this last decade. It seems like a good coin for somebody like me to invest in.


Also, I bought puts options on Roblox stock because you've been mentioning these metaverse/gaming coins. So, thanks for that! Lot of these coins are still low market cap with high players, while Roblox was valued at like 40b before the dip today. I made quite a bit today. The thesis behind my put options was Crypto will be the future of metaverse/gaming. I'm not saying Roblox doesn't have a place, but that valuation was nutz. And I don't think it will ever reach a market share that would justify that kind of valuation.

Next play will probably be on the application layer of Fantom (FTM)

Big project launching next week made by the best dev in defi

Is FTM just gonna be a quick flip? You got a price target?

FTM and AVAX are blue chips with advanced ecosystems and applications. For the most part, the prices are being driven by actual demand and usage. This type of activity can last longer than you can believe.

I'm pretty bullish overall on all of the chains with actual activity going on it this includes MATIC, SOL, FTM, AVAX, LUNA, ETH, NEAR, DOT, JUNO, ALGO, ONE, ATOM, and a bunch of others. However, I think of these more lower upside and less risky projects. Upside would be about maybe 2-4x depending on marketcap and drawdowns of 40% are possible. Best to check coingecko what the market cap of each of these are.

I can make the case to simply create a balanced stack of each of these in your portfolio and just dollar cost average once a week. I don't think any of them are going away during an innovation cycle.

[Stannis]

FTM and AVAX are blue chips with advanced ecosystems and applications. For the most part, the prices are being driven by actual demand and usage. This type of activity can last longer than you can believe.

I'm pretty bullish overall on all of the chains with actual activity going on it this includes MATIC, SOL, FTM, AVAX, LUNA, ETH, NEAR, DOT, JUNO, ALGO, ONE, ATOM, and a bunch of others. However, I think of these more lower upside and less risky projects. Upside would be about maybe 2-4x depending on marketcap and drawdowns of 40% are possible. Best to check coingecko what the market cap of each of these are.

I can make the case to simply create a balanced stack of each of these in your portfolio and just dollar cost average once a week. I don't think any of them are going away during an innovation cycle.

Thank you. That's probably too much for me to keep up with. I might just add FTM and stick with DOT+AVAX. And maybe add SAND, and rebuy CRV.

Also, I'm pretty surprised how well Crypto is holding up with tech stocks bleeding. I think the Russia news is keeping Crypto steady and not falling with the tech stocks.

[Stannis]

I'm happy to be over 50% cash atm. My $BOIL commons and puts on ARK are keeping me up as well. I think overvalued tech bleeds more.

[Dantares]

So I am short the market with puts. I am so ashamed, I got excited when I heard the news that Biden believes(per US intelligience) Russia has decided to invade Ukraine. Then I got sick to my stomach. this is real life and not numbers or a game. more people are going to die in this conflict.

If you are short the market then you will probably make alot of money when the market opens next week but remember don't **** dance. I hope Putin changes his mind and my puts end up worthless tbh.

Watch on YouTube

[Stannis]

So I am short the market with puts. I am so ashamed, I got excited when I heard the news that Biden believes(per US intelligience) Russia has decided to invade Ukraine. Then I got sick to my stomach. this is real life and not numbers or a game. more people are going to die in this conflict.

If you are short the market then you will probably make alot of money when the market opens next week but remember don't **** dance. I hope Putin changes his mind and my puts end up worthless tbh.

Being bearish right now seems too easy, considering value stocks are still up and the speculative/unprofitable companies are already down 60%, basically the stocks in ARK ETF. The market is weeding out unprofitable companies and rotating into value. Also, people are losing hope and leaving the speculative BS (e.g. Virgin Galatic. This imo, sounds like a healthy market because they are actually valuing balance sheets and profits now.

I don't think we will see another 2008 where the whole market goes down. But probably a mini-dot com bubble.

[Stannis]

Lot of coins down today. I bought more BTC

[Stannis]

SPELL is kicking my ass.

I added more AVAX. And I'm debating about opening a new position in SAND and accepting my losses on SPELL.

[Stannis]

I've been having probably my best month trading. Been buying puts on all the meme, ARKK, retail, speculative stocks.

I'm up bigly on SPCE, Lemonade, and ARKK puts.

Also, BOIL is doing good as a hedge for the Russian conflict.

[KOA]

Still too much speculation in the market. Too many pre-revenue companies are worth BILLIONS
Once TSLA has a reasonable valuation, then you know its safe to re-enter (the balloon might finally be popping).

Think all coins are going to get hammered with QE. When you start taking down 9 trillion of liquidity in the market, the most speculative of assets are likely to be the first to go.

[Stannis]

Still too much speculation in the market. Too many pre-revenue companies are worth BILLIONS
Once TSLA has a reasonable valuation, then you know its safe to re-enter (the balloon might finally be popping).

Think all coins are going to get hammered with QE. When you start taking down 9 trillion of liquidity in the market, the most speculative of assets are likely to be the first to go.

ARKK and the speculative stocks were already overvalued pre-covid. The covid bubble has burst and now it's a falling knife imo.

I'm eyeing Tesla as well for the reasons you stated. Once that gets to a reasonable valuation, is the moment to buy since so many of the speculative stocks were following Tesla. Everyone started buying these pre-revenue companies in hopes to find the next Tesla.

Also, I have the MAGA stocks on my watchlist. They are keeping the indexes alive. Amazon has been falling.