2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[Doctor MJ]

For the record, the Kerr Warriors, when healthy, have fallen behind (2-1 or 3-1) 3 times.
Each time they came back and won the series.

In 2019, the team lost KD against the Rockets and were expected to lose out from there, instead they won, won the next series, and then fought the champs respectably.

I would submit that the perception that Curry fails against adversity doesn't have the track record evidence people have come to think it does.

Thanks Doc. Seems like my perception of Curry and the team is based more on my observations than on reality. Appreciate you correcting the record on that. I guess I need to not let his body language impact me so much. But just like Luka's constant berating of the officials concerns me a great deal about his focus, a lot of Curry's actions when he gets frustrated really rub me wrong.

But I'm big on what happens over my perception of what's happening. So you present some compelling evidence that either my worry is silly or Draymond's influence is enough to overcome Steph's.

Chuck, good for you for being able to see and acknowledge when your normal human data-accumulating process leads you to conclusions you can't truly justify.

Let me say something in the opposite direction pertaining to Curry:

While I think Curry absolutely has a strong case for regular season MVP this year because we've seen a continued track record of the Warriors being able to be great as long as Curry is out there even when his shot isn't falling, I do think Golden State may be poised for a disappointment in the playoffs if Curry doesn't get back on track.

Push comes to shove, if you are losing a playoff series against GS while committing super-heavy coverage to Curry, and he doesn't seem to be hitting shots in a Curry-like way, you'd be foolish not to adapt and force him to actually beat you with his shooting rather than dying the slow death at the hands of his gravity.

In the end, for GS to win the title, I think we're going to have to see some classic Steph games - as well as likely some classic Klay games - and if they can't bring those when needed, I expect the team offense to get "figured out" over the course of a playoff series.

[HeartBreakKid]

Steve Kerr underrated? Guy had everything short of a blow job when the Warriors were on top, which is most years.

[Doctor MJ]

Steve Kerr underrated? Guy had everything short of a blow job when the Warriors were on top, which is most years.

Did you predict the Warriors would have the record they do this year?

[falcolombardi]

For the record, the Kerr Warriors, when healthy, have fallen behind (2-1 or 3-1) 3 times.
Each time they came back and won the series.

In 2019, the team lost KD against the Rockets and were expected to lose out from there, instead they won, won the next series, and then fought the champs respectably.

I would submit that the perception that Curry fails against adversity doesn't have the track record evidence people have come to think it does.

Thanks Doc. Seems like my perception of Curry and the team is based more on my observations than on reality. Appreciate you correcting the record on that. I guess I need to not let his body language impact me so much. But just like Luka's constant berating of the officials concerns me a great deal about his focus, a lot of Curry's actions when he gets frustrated really rub me wrong.

But I'm big on what happens over my perception of what's happening. So you present some compelling evidence that either my worry is silly or Draymond's influence is enough to overcome Steph's.

Chuck, good for you for being able to see and acknowledge when your normal human data-accumulating process leads you to conclusions you can't truly justify.

Let me say something in the opposite direction pertaining to Curry:

While I think Curry absolutely has a strong case for regular season MVP this year because we've seen a continued track record of the Warriors being able to be great as long as Curry is out there even when his shot isn't falling, I do think Golden State may be poised for a disappointment in the playoffs if Curry doesn't get back on track.

Push comes to shove, if you are losing a playoff series against GS while committing super-heavy coverage to Curry, and he doesn't seem to be hitting shots in a Curry-like way, you'd be foolish not to adapt and force him to actually beat you with his shooting rather than dying the slow death at the hands of his gravity.

In the end, for GS to win the title, I think we're going to have to see some classic Steph games - as well as likely some classic Klay games - and if they can't bring those when needed, I expect the team offense to get "figured out" over the course of a playoff series.

how do you feel about the warriors only managing an average ish offense despite the "greater than the sum of their parts" theory about kerr system?

i know this may be unfair to curry, but i honestly am a bit underwhelmed by warriors offense

seems like they should be a bit better than that talent wise but maybe i am overstimating them?

[Doctor MJ]

Thanks Doc. Seems like my perception of Curry and the team is based more on my observations than on reality. Appreciate you correcting the record on that. I guess I need to not let his body language impact me so much. But just like Luka's constant berating of the officials concerns me a great deal about his focus, a lot of Curry's actions when he gets frustrated really rub me wrong.

But I'm big on what happens over my perception of what's happening. So you present some compelling evidence that either my worry is silly or Draymond's influence is enough to overcome Steph's.

Chuck, good for you for being able to see and acknowledge when your normal human data-accumulating process leads you to conclusions you can't truly justify.

Let me say something in the opposite direction pertaining to Curry:

While I think Curry absolutely has a strong case for regular season MVP this year because we've seen a continued track record of the Warriors being able to be great as long as Curry is out there even when his shot isn't falling, I do think Golden State may be poised for a disappointment in the playoffs if Curry doesn't get back on track.

Push comes to shove, if you are losing a playoff series against GS while committing super-heavy coverage to Curry, and he doesn't seem to be hitting shots in a Curry-like way, you'd be foolish not to adapt and force him to actually beat you with his shooting rather than dying the slow death at the hands of his gravity.

In the end, for GS to win the title, I think we're going to have to see some classic Steph games - as well as likely some classic Klay games - and if they can't bring those when needed, I expect the team offense to get "figured out" over the course of a playoff series.

how do you feel about the warriors only managing an average ish offense despite the "greater than the sum of their parts" theory about kerr system?

i know this may be unfair to curry, but i honestly am a bit underwhelmed by warriors offense

seems like they should be a bit better than that talent wise but maybe i am overstimating them?

Well, let's first remember the shift with Kerr's arrival in GS.

2013-14 under Mark Jackson, Golden State rORtg +0.8
2014-15 under Steve Kerr, Golden State rORtg +6.0

This was a massive improvement, and it doesn't make sense to separate this from Kerr, because the main shift was a difference in offensive system away from a more basic NBA offense to a motion offense strikingly different from anything else in the league.

On the other end of things, let's separate out the 4 factors and recognize that the Warriors' eFG% this year at 55% is 3rd in the league this year. Hence the idea of "if this is working, why is it so mediocre?" doesn't hold up because the Warriors continue to put up outstanding eFG even with Curry having a major shooting slump.

So it's other factors holding the ORtg back, with turnovers being the glaring issue relative to earlier elite seasons for the team. Turnover economy is obviously not something to be shrugged off, and in a motion offense like the Warriors, high turnovers are precisely the sort of things to be concerned about, but it's worth considering that with a 13.7 TO%, they aren't far off from the 13.5 number of their 2015-16 season.

To become a world-beater offense a la the 73-9 Warriors, you might argue that what they need to be aiming for is to go from merely being an elite eFG team, to a step ahead of everyone else. And this of course is the sort of performance I'd only expect if the Splash Brothers both look like Splash Brothers.

I will say that when you talk about the talent on the roster now, aside from Steph/Klay/Dray - who haven't been their peak trio self this year obviously - who are you talking about? The same crew that everyone knew about before the season started that led people to conclude they'd be a play-in-ish team again? Are you perhaps rounding up how good that supporting cast is now that the team looks like a contender? I think it's important, for example, for folks to remember that Wiggins was literally a bust before he got to GS - despite the max contract, which was not smart management.

[Dr Positivity]

Annoying that missed games will take away Draymond DPOY, Gobert is favored despite Jazz being weirdly offense first this year

[Dr Positivity]

Raptors fans booing a player who didn't want to play there feels like old times

[sp6r=underrated]

The list below is ranking franchises based on the structural advantages they hold over franchises.


Apex: Los Angeles Laker: LA the city and the brand name gives them a long-lasting structural advantage over the next group that will only end with a sustained, generational spell of irrelevance.
Major Advantage: Los Angeles Clippers, Brooklyn Nets and NY Knicks. Based on the city they play in they have a real advantage. Note the Clippers squandered it throughout the Sterling years the Knicks have squandered it after they burned down the remaining capital of what Riley created.
Advantage over neutral group: Chicago, Dallas, Golden State, Houston. These cities are all much closer to neutral than the big ones. There advantage is really minor over neutral franchises. The main advantage I can see is a minor QOL advantage/financial advantage
Neutral: Most franchises within this group is a range.
Major Disadvantage: Utah, Oklahoma City. The City these franchises are located in is actively harmful.

[eminence]

I think I'd mention Miami in the 'Advantage' group.

[Dr Positivity]

Toronto is probably one of the biggest disadvantages in the league, I'd say Indiana, Minnesota are up there also.

[Texas Chuck]

Reggie Bullock with an absolute masterclass tonight on defending Steph Curry tonight. Holy cow. I know the numbers look good for Steph 8/15 and 4/5 but Bullock was just all over him. And first 4th Q of Steph's career where he played the entire Q and didn't attempt a shot.

Of course then Moses freaking Moody did his best Steph impression, but still that was something out of Bullock.

[sp6r=underrated]

Toronto is probably one of the biggest disadvantages in the league, I'd say Indiana, Minnesota are up there also.

Completely disagree on Toronto.

1. The City gives Toronto significant revenue streams over most franchises. No one wants to play in SLC/OKC and they lack the ability to generate significant revenue.
2. Indiana/Minnesota are in the bottom end of the normal range

[Dr Positivity]

Toronto is probably one of the biggest disadvantages in the league, I'd say Indiana, Minnesota are up there also.

Completely disagree on Toronto.

1. The City gives Toronto significant revenue streams over most franchises. No one wants to play in SLC/OKC and they lack the ability to generate significant revenue.
2. Indiana/Minnesota are in the bottom end of the normal range

They still don't want to play in a different country, a few loyalists like Lowry and Derozan but the same could be said of Utah. I'm not sure there's any other team that could win a title and then have their superstar leave anyway.

[sp6r=underrated]

Toronto is probably one of the biggest disadvantages in the league, I'd say Indiana, Minnesota are up there also.

Completely disagree on Toronto.

1. The City gives Toronto significant revenue streams over most franchises. No one wants to play in SLC/OKC and they lack the ability to generate significant revenue.
2. Indiana/Minnesota are in the bottom end of the normal range

They still don't want to play in a different country, a few loyalists like Lowry and Derozan but the same could be said of Utah. I'm not sure there's any other team that could win a title and then have their superstar leave anyway.

It still has a better nightlife than most NBA cities. It is nothing like the situation Salt Lake City faces:

1. Little economic stream
2. Almost no nightlife
3. Almost no black people

As to Kawhi leaving, he had just forced his way off a 67 win club that he won a title with. He was hell bent on getting back to his home.

[Colbinii]

Toronto is probably one of the biggest disadvantages in the league, I'd say Indiana, Minnesota are up there also.

Completely disagree on Toronto.

1. The City gives Toronto significant revenue streams over most franchises. No one wants to play in SLC/OKC and they lack the ability to generate significant revenue.
2. Indiana/Minnesota are in the bottom end of the normal range

They still don't want to play in a different country, a few loyalists like Lowry and Derozan but the same could be said of Utah. I'm not sure there's any other team that could win a title and then have their superstar leave anyway.

Replace Toronto with literally any city except LA and Kawhi leaves. Kawhi was choosing to go to LA because he wanted to be in LA.

[SeniorWalker]

Is gobert the leading candidate for DPOY? He's missed about 20 games right?

[eminence]

Candidates/stats I see looking around the league (stats from BBref).

Giannis - Bucks 8th in Net Rating, 13th in Defense, -0.6 Defense (negative is good), +8.5 oncourt, +11.9 on/off - probably get some votes, but I'd be surprised if he won it without a big late surge, Bucks have largely disappointed to date and that's always a factor.

Jokic - Nuggets 10th in Net Rating, 12th in Defense, -0.8 Defense, +8.9 oncourt, +16.4 on/off - No chance he gets it due to the narrative around his defense, but he should be a more serious candidate than I expect he will be.

Gobert - Jazz 2nd in Net Rating, 10th in Defense, -1.1 Defense, +9.8 oncourt, +6.0 on/off - Doubt he gets it again, voters want to see playoff success, missed a decent portion of time, and hasn't fully found his groove since returning.

Embiid - Sixers 11th in Net Rating, 9th in Defense, -1.4 Defense, +8.1 oncourt, +12.2 on/off - Has one of the stronger narratives running, could see the team surge up the rankings overall as the season finishes. Also missed some time.

Bam - Heat 5th in Net Rating, 6th in Defense, -2.6 Defense, +7.0 oncourt, +3.5 on/off - Missed too much time I think, but figured I'd mention him.

Mobley/Allen - Cavs 7th in Net Rating, 4th in Defense, -3.9 Defense, +2.8/+4.5 oncourt, -1.4/+2.7 on/off - Hard to differentiate the two. Imagine they'll syphon from one another a bit to keep either from the top of the heap.

Celtic? - 4th in Net Rating, 3rd in Defense, -4.8 Defense - A real cast effort over there, 1 through 5 are all + defenders (Tatum/Smart/Brown/Horford/Williams). I don't see any one guy, but they deserve some recognition on the All-D squads for sure.

Mikal Bridges - 1st in Net Rating, 2nd in Defense, -4.9 Defense, +10.6 oncourt, +7.6 on/off - Also has a strong defensive cast around him, but I do see him as their clear best defender. Big props to CP3 for his continued captaining of the defense as well. Would be quite surprised if Bridges won it though, his rep doesn't seem good enough for it.

Warrior? - 3rd in Net Rating, 1st in Defense, -5.4 defense - Another team effort, Curry, Wiggins, Looney, OPJ, Payton, Draymond are all good to great defenders. Defense has slipped a bit recently as rookies have replaced vets in the rotation. Curry/Wiggins/Looney and Draymond if he comes back in time deserve All-D consideration.

Embiid would be my pick for who's likely to win it as of now, though I think my personal pick as of now would be Mikal Bridges.

[Dr Positivity]

Is gobert the leading candidate for DPOY? He's missed about 20 games right?

Gobert has the best betting odds right now followed by Giannis. Gobert has played 47 games whereas Draymond only has 34.

It seems to me like Bridges and Jackson are both possible as the Suns could pass Warriors for highest ranked defense, Jackson is close to being the blocks per game leader over Gobert and Timelord, and awarding Suns or Grizzlies season would be more exciting to them than this years Bucks and Jazz.

[LukaTheGOAT]

If the Warriors keep losing, they could end up matching up against the Nuggets in the first round. Considering we don't know what Dray will look like when he gets back, and that they won't have a guy over 6'9 in their rotation, I am a bit worried about them having to match up with Joker. Then MPJ if he is right, is a good offensive rebounder, and Jamal Murray has impressive shotmaking...I don't know, that seems like a potential upset to keep your eyes on.

[falcolombardi]

If the Warriors keep losing, they could end up matching up against the Nuggets in the first round. Considering we don't know what Dray will look like when he gets back, and that they won't have a guy over 6'9 in their rotation, I am a bit worried about them having to match up with Joker. Then MPJ if he is right, is a good offensive rebounder, and Jamal Murray has impressive shotmaking...I don't know, that seems like a potential upset to keep your eyes on.

any team not calles Phoenix suns has first round danger right now imo, specially with how weird east seeding is right now