2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 6) - with ROY poll

[srhcan]

Far from. It is by far the most important information we have on the players.

I would imagine Cade would go first to some GMs, but Mobley to most. I actually think a handful of GMs would now jump at the opportunity to take Kuminga 3rd (some 2nd, but likely no lower than 4-5).

I do think Mobley is the best now and it is likely to stay that way, but man was there some real talent this year.

Post past drafts where the 1st year, 5th year, and 10th year redrafts would look exactly the same. I'd guess that in the majority of drafts there would be seismic shifts at each point.

I would say any "seismic" shift comes after year 1 (you have a very good idea of their current ability against pros, their potential and their mind set). After year 3 you would see another large adjustment, and anything beyond would largely be tinkering in most seasons (excluding injured players).

The idea of a 1st year redraft being "meaningless" is obviously nonsense.

No. Nonsense is to think 1st year redraft is a good thing. Only a fool will think like that. There are so many examples of players who have shown they are better then where they were drafted after couple of years. Similarly there are so many examples of players who have shown they are not worth the position where they were drafted after couple of years. I would say to wait until at least 3 years before doing a redraft.

[LoveMyRaps]

Barnes vs. Mobley tonight.

But the real battle tonight will be Raps vs. Cavs for that 6th seed.

[BoatsNZones]

Post past drafts where the 1st year, 5th year, and 10th year redrafts would look exactly the same. I'd guess that in the majority of drafts there would be seismic shifts at each point.

I would say any "seismic" shift comes after year 1 (you have a very good idea of their current ability against pros, their potential and their mind set). After year 3 you would see another large adjustment, and anything beyond would largely be tinkering in most seasons (excluding injured players).

The idea of a 1st year redraft being "meaningless" is obviously nonsense.

No. Nonsense is to think 1st year redraft is a good thing. Only a fool will think like that. There are so many examples of players who have shown they are better then where they were drafted after couple of years. Similarly there are so many examples of players who have shown they are not worth the position where they were drafted after couple of years. I would say to wait until at least 3 years before doing a redraft.

I’m not advocating for this as an exercise, if that’s what you two are confused about. I have definitely learned an extensive amount more about these players than based on our limited knowledge going into the draft though, that is for sure. Such is the 1 and done era.

[reanimator]

I would say any "seismic" shift comes after year 1 (you have a very good idea of their current ability against pros, their potential and their mind set). After year 3 you would see another large adjustment, and anything beyond would largely be tinkering in most seasons (excluding injured players).

The idea of a 1st year redraft being "meaningless" is obviously nonsense.

No. Nonsense is to think 1st year redraft is a good thing. Only a fool will think like that. There are so many examples of players who have shown they are better then where they were drafted after couple of years. Similarly there are so many examples of players who have shown they are not worth the position where they were drafted after couple of years. I would say to wait until at least 3 years before doing a redraft.

I’m not advocating for this as an exercise, if that’s what you two are confused about. I have definitely learned an extensive amount more about these players than based on our limited knowledge going into the draft though, that is for sure. Such is the 1 and done era.

No doubt. We know more now than predraft.

My point was more so that what we know now may not be indicative of how things track years from now. I think around years 3-5, we will have a better gauge on these players impact and ability with some outlier development maybe even past that time frame. By year 10, we will have a better gauge on their longevity and accolades.

[JackTalkThai]

Kind of a dud night from both ROTY front runners.

[aad]

3 bad games in a row for Barnes

[Tripod]

Barnes bad/dud night. Just scratching the surface.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[whitehops]

Barnes bad/dud night. Just scratching the surface.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

first of all with the first video, impressive strip. garland is super quick and has a tight handle but barnes clocked it the whole way.

that said, what on earth is barnes doing on the fast break in the first video? precious is clearly ahead for a wide open dunk and barnes opts to not pass, let the defense catch up, dump it off and then make precious pump fake, creating his own open look. it's like fast break 101 to pass ahead...

and i'm loving the trend of barnes doing completely unnecessary no-looks like in the second video. the player he passed to was clearly wide open for a dunk even if he stared them down. he also looked off to a complete non-threat, which is why none of the cavs players even flinched in that direction. this is an example of actual eye manipulation, even though it's not a no-look. he freezes the weakside defenders by looking at *actual* threats, which leaves the gap to zip a pass inside for stewart.

barnes is just scratching the surface, but that also highlights how far he has to go.

[Tripod]

Barnes bad/dud night. Just scratching the surface.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

first of all with the first video, impressive strip. garland is super quick and has a tight handle but barnes clocked it the whole way.

that said, what on earth is barnes doing on the fast break in the first video? precious is clearly ahead for a wide open dunk and barnes opts to not pass, let the defense catch up, dump it off and then make precious pump fake, creating his own open look. it's like fast break 101 to pass ahead...

and i'm loving the trend of barnes doing completely unnecessary no-looks like in the second video. the player he passed to was clearly wide open for a dunk even if he stared them down. he also looked off to a complete non-threat, which is why none of the cavs players even flinched in that direction. this is an example of actual eye manipulation, even though it's not a no-look. he freezes the weakside defenders by looking at *actual* threats, which leaves the gap to zip a pass inside for stewart.

barnes is just scratching the surface, but that also highlights how far he has to go.

this one any better for your criteria? Oh, and Achiuwa often fumbles the ball...small hands. I thing Scottie expected Ach to block the defender a bit and was just going to dunk it himself.

Watch on YouTube

[whitehops]

this one any better for your criteria? Oh, and Achiuwa often fumbles the ball...small hands. I thing Scottie expected Ach to block the defender a bit and was just going to dunk it himself.

Watch on YouTube

that's literally the same one i quoted...

[MrBigShot]

I may be wrong and obviously have some bias, but I still think the majority of GMs would take Cade #1 if a re-draft were held.

If you look at his best month of games compared to any other rookie's, he has peaked the highest imo, with 22/7/7 on 47/33/83 shooting splits in the month of March. Even taking into account Kuminga and Jalen Green's absurd athleticism and physical tools and Mobley's great rookie year, I still honestly believe Cade has the highest ceiling in the draft based on his archetype and combination of physical tools + skillset and feel for the game.

[jasonxxx102]

I may be wrong and obviously have some bias, but I still think the majority of GMs would take Cade #1 if a re-draft were held.

If you look at his best month of games compared to any other rookie's, he has peaked the highest imo, with 22/7/7 on 47/33/83 shooting splits in the month of March. Even taking into account Kuminga and Jalen Green's absurd athleticism and physical tools and Mobley's great rookie year, I still honestly believe Cade has the highest ceiling in the draft based on his archetype and combination of physical tools + skillset and feel for the game.

Depends on whether you're bought in on the offensive development of Mobley or not. If Mobley can become a ~35% 3Pt shooter and clean up his handle enough to be functional that's possibly MVP material.

Is Cade a transcendent player? I don't see it. I mean, he's going to be fantastic but I don't see best player in the league upside. The mold for best player in the league from a primary ball handler is Luka and Cade isn't Luka.

[Madhouse]

I may be wrong and obviously have some bias, but I still think the majority of GMs would take Cade #1 if a re-draft were held.

If you look at his best month of games compared to any other rookie's, he has peaked the highest imo, with 22/7/7 on 47/33/83 shooting splits in the month of March. Even taking into account Kuminga and Jalen Green's absurd athleticism and physical tools and Mobley's great rookie year, I still honestly believe Cade has the highest ceiling in the draft based on his archetype and combination of physical tools + skillset and feel for the game.

yes, it's a reasonable thought. If you had Cade at #1 before the draft, not much/enough as happened to reverse that now. I had him at #3 personally and I would still have him at #3 right now but I don't think anything from draft to now has changed in regards to Cade. He's had his duds but at the same time looked dominant at times already. I do enjoy watching him because he has a complete skillset.

[Madhouse]

I may be wrong and obviously have some bias, but I still think the majority of GMs would take Cade #1 if a re-draft were held.

If you look at his best month of games compared to any other rookie's, he has peaked the highest imo, with 22/7/7 on 47/33/83 shooting splits in the month of March. Even taking into account Kuminga and Jalen Green's absurd athleticism and physical tools and Mobley's great rookie year, I still honestly believe Cade has the highest ceiling in the draft based on his archetype and combination of physical tools + skillset and feel for the game.

Depends on whether you're bought in on the offensive development of Mobley or not. If Mobley can become a ~35% 3Pt shooter and clean up his handle enough to be functional that's possibly MVP material.

Is Cade a transcendent player? I don't see it. I mean, he's going to be fantastic but I don't see best player in the league upside. The mold for best player in the league from a primary ball handler is Luka and Cade isn't Luka.

I mean, you could say this about a bunch of players...if this player improves this and that, he is All-NBA/MVP caliber.

[jasonxxx102]

I may be wrong and obviously have some bias, but I still think the majority of GMs would take Cade #1 if a re-draft were held.

If you look at his best month of games compared to any other rookie's, he has peaked the highest imo, with 22/7/7 on 47/33/83 shooting splits in the month of March. Even taking into account Kuminga and Jalen Green's absurd athleticism and physical tools and Mobley's great rookie year, I still honestly believe Cade has the highest ceiling in the draft based on his archetype and combination of physical tools + skillset and feel for the game.

Depends on whether you're bought in on the offensive development of Mobley or not. If Mobley can become a ~35% 3Pt shooter and clean up his handle enough to be functional that's possibly MVP material.

Is Cade a transcendent player? I don't see it. I mean, he's going to be fantastic but I don't see best player in the league upside. The mold for best player in the league from a primary ball handler is Luka and Cade isn't Luka.

I mean, you could say this about a bunch of players...if this player improves this and that, he is All-NBA/MVP caliber.

but you really can't.

How many 7fters are there in the league who have DPOY - All-Defense upside. That's why I'm saying if he becomes an above average offensive weapon (I can lay out the groundwork on how he can do that) then you've really got something special.

As good as Cade looks or projects out to be I just don't see (best player in the league) type skills. If you could convince me that he's Luka, then maybe but the playmaking isn't there

[Jabroni Lames]

With the Cavs defense wilting down the stretch since Jarrett Allen went out and the Raptors surging with key guys in and out of the lineup... you'd have to give the edge now to Barnes for ROY. He looks to be getting stronger and even running the offense for good stretches as the primary creator. Mobley tends to disappear at times, while Barnes is in your face for the entire game. The legit creation element of Barnes with his more versatile 1 to 5 defensively switchability (although Mobley is great for his size there too) is what makes the better prospect, IMO.

I'm no longer buying the "generational defender" hype of Mobley, although he will legit make All-Defense 1st team at some point in his career.

[Madhouse]

Depends on whether you're bought in on the offensive development of Mobley or not. If Mobley can become a ~35% 3Pt shooter and clean up his handle enough to be functional that's possibly MVP material.

Is Cade a transcendent player? I don't see it. I mean, he's going to be fantastic but I don't see best player in the league upside. The mold for best player in the league from a primary ball handler is Luka and Cade isn't Luka.

I mean, you could say this about a bunch of players...if this player improves this and that, he is All-NBA/MVP caliber.

but you really can't.

How many 7fters are there in the league who have DPOY - All-Defense upside. That's why I'm saying if he becomes an above average offensive weapon (I can lay out the groundwork on how he can do that) then you've really got something special.

As good as Cade looks or projects out to be I just don't see (best player in the league) type skills. If you could convince me that he's Luka, then maybe but the playmaking isn't there

It doesn't have to be Mobley's skillset. There a bunch of players in the league who have a special trait/skill and if you just completely wash away their weaknesses, they are all world. There is a path for someone like Mobley to become a future MVP but that path exists for others like Barnes and Cunningham as well. You can't just say if this players cleans up this and that (knowing he is very far away from cleaning it up) he has best player in the world potential and then say others don't have that potential even though they have more complete skillsets as first year players.

[jasonxxx102]

I mean, you could say this about a bunch of players...if this player improves this and that, he is All-NBA/MVP caliber.

but you really can't.

How many 7fters are there in the league who have DPOY - All-Defense upside. That's why I'm saying if he becomes an above average offensive weapon (I can lay out the groundwork on how he can do that) then you've really got something special.

As good as Cade looks or projects out to be I just don't see (best player in the league) type skills. If you could convince me that he's Luka, then maybe but the playmaking isn't there

It doesn't have to be Mobley's skillset. There a bunch of players in the league who have a special trait/skill and if you just completely wash away their weaknesses, they are all world. There is a path for someone like Mobley to become a future MVP but that path exists for others like Barnes and Cunningham as well. You can't just say if this players cleans up this and that (knowing he is very far away from cleaning it up) he has best player in the world potential and then say others don't have that potential even though they have more complete skillsets as first year players.

Do they have more complete games, though?

[Que Rico]

Herb should make all NBA defense but I know that will be reserved for LeBron since he's showing out defensively this year (green font)

[HotelVitale]

Depends on whether you're bought in on the offensive development of Mobley or not. If Mobley can become a ~35% 3Pt shooter and clean up his handle enough to be functional that's possibly MVP material.

Is Cade a transcendent player? I don't see it. I mean, he's going to be fantastic but I don't see best player in the league upside. The mold for best player in the league from a primary ball handler is Luka and Cade isn't Luka.

I mean, you could say this about a bunch of players...if this player improves this and that, he is All-NBA/MVP caliber.

but you really can't.

How many 7fters are there in the league who have DPOY - All-Defense upside. That's why I'm saying if he becomes an above average offensive weapon (I can lay out the groundwork on how he can do that) then you've really got something special.

As good as Cade looks or projects out to be I just don't see (best player in the league) type skills. If you could convince me that he's Luka, then maybe but the playmaking isn't there

You're skipping a lot of steps here and create an unequal comparison. For this comp to make any sense, you have to be holding Mobley to the standard of being a 'transcendent player' which means assuming that Mobley will not only be a very good defender--or even a top-20 one--but rather a defensive supernova, clear-cut game-changing multiple-DPOY guy. I'm all about dreaming big for rookies, but that's a big leap. As you said, he has that upside--but for him to become a 'transcendent' player he needs to become legitimately awesome on defense, one of if not the best defenders of the last decade. He has no chance otherwise, since we're all acknowledging he's unlikely to get better than 'hey, pretty good!' as a scorer.

Cade on the other hand doesn't need to develop 'best player in the league' skills to be better than Mobley. He just needs to become a more efficient, consistent, and sharper version of what he already basically is, and he needs Mobley to not become the very best version of himself.

Point is, they're both good prospects who have a chance of being top-5ish players, but that's extremely far from guaranteed for either player. Mobley isn't a couple of clicks from getting there, and Cade also has a lot of the foundation already laid for becoming that. I'd probably agree that Mobley has a slightly clearer path to becoming that, but it's still all going to depend on a bunch of unpredictable things. Lots of guys kind of plateau after strong rookie years, and lots of guys make huge leaps randomly in years 2,3, 4 or sometimes 5. We're not gonna know who's better until it's happening.