Texas Chuck wrote:on Luka -- I don't think he should be an MVP candidate simply because there are too many guys who just played better.
But man do I hate using raw +/- to dismiss players.
The Mavs starting 5 absolutely wrecks opponents. Better offensively than the Death Lineup to give you an idea how good they are. Then the bench comes in the 2nd half of the 1st and 3rd quarters and Luka stays out there with the 2nd unit and they give some back. Then the rest of the starters get to come back in and that always included Brunson and now also includes Dinwiddie.
So Luka's raw plus minus looks mediocre yet, with the starting 5, his numbers are exactly what you'd expect from a player of his caliber. But people don't take the time to look into the rotations(I know I don't--I'm just intimately familiar with Dallas because I follow them closely) and thus lose a lot of context.
We saw this same thing with the Bulls with Mike and Pippen btw. Pippen was always the guy who played with the 2nd unit and Mike played a higher percentage of minutes with the best players. And these numbers have been used against Pippen while ignoring the realities of the lineups.
The general perception is that this team is Luka and a bunch of nobodies. Given this, it's weird that Luka requires the perfect other 4 guys around him before the team actually performs well, isn't it?
I get that there's more to look at than raw +/-, but if you can point to any more sophisticated matric in that space that indicates Luka should be seen as an MVP candidate, please let me know, because I haven't found it.
Now again: I am not in any way betting against Luka's capacity to be the best player on the court against any team in the world come post-season time. He's for real...
but there are players who just find ways to contribute massive impact in all settings as lineups shift around them, and there are those that just tend to play their game and count on that working out. Diana Taurasi called this distinction impact players vs flow players - where she was a flow player, and Maya Moore was an impact player.
What I see to this point in Doncic's career, he's more of a "flow" player than an impact player, though this is a misleading name for Doncic because he's not "going with the flow" out there. He's dictating play, and it just so happens that when he does this over the course of his 3 quality regular seasons, we don't see massive impact the way we've seen with various other guys. Doesn't mean Doncic won't come out on top come June, but I think we've seen enough to see that it's a thing.
As a basic of comparison here, unless Doncic goes nuts in the playoffs - which I'll readily agree is a distinct possibility - this will mean 4 years into the NBA after coming in the league a Euroleague MVP, and still never leading his team in +/-, what about other guys we talk about in the MVP conversation in their first 4 years?
Jokic - all 4 years
Giannis - none - didn't do it until his 6th year
Embiid - 3 of his first 4 years
Tatum - 3 of his first 4 years
Curry - 1 of his first 4 years (apologies, thought it was his 5th year, but it was his 4th)
And other guys who have played entirely in this +/- era who have won MVPs:
Duncan - 3 of his first 4 years
Garnett - 2 of his first 4 years
Nash - 2 of his first 4 years
Dirk - 2 of his first 4 years
Kobe - none - didn't do it until his 10th year
LeBron - 3 of his first 4 years
Rose - none - to this point, still hasn't done it in his career
Durant - 1 of his first 4 years
Westbrook - none - didn't do it until his 7th year
Harden - 1 of his first 4 years
And for the record over in the WNBA:
Taurasi - 1 of her first 4 years
Moore - all 8 of the years she played
I so don't want to overstate things indicating that this is a clear, direct relationship between how good a player's career accomplishment will be, but I think we see some similarities recurring. While in some cases there are reasons why a guy might take a while before he's head and shoulders above his teammates on any metric like this, sometimes that's just how the guy rolls.
I don't think it was a mistake for the Lakers to bet on Kobe and I don't think it's a mistake for the Mavs to be on Luka, but I don't think what Luka's done to this point in his career should be seen as creating MVP-level regular seasons.