2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#21 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Apr 9, 2022 5:38 pm

jalengreen wrote:
sp6r=underrated wrote:Hypo: Say Kyrie Irving turned in a post-season similar in value to Kawhi's 2019 campaign. Nets lose in Finals but he is clearly the best player in each series

Would you consider putting him on your POTY ballot after what he pulled in the regular season


i know it's just a hypothetical but it's such a hard one to even imagine with KD on the team lol


KD can get injured though, as we've seen this season already.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#22 » by eminence » Sat Apr 9, 2022 5:54 pm

I don't think Kyrie hypotheticals like that are worth much thought at this point (check in again if we're headed into the conference finals and he's been the best player in the playoffs to date). He's never looked like the best player in the world for any sort of extended time (or honestly all that close to being the best player in the world).

It's only slightly more likely than Mike Conley deciding to look like prime Steve Nash on his way to the title, we'd just have to completely reframe how we look at Kyrie as a player.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#23 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Apr 9, 2022 6:15 pm

Putting some thoughts down right now -

The guys I've been thinking of in terms of MVP (and thus POY down the road) are Jokic, Giannis, Tatum, Embiid, Curry and...Mikal Bridges.

With regards to Giannis, Embiid & Curry, I'm going to have really think about whether Giannis & Embiid played enough to surpass Curry. I, like I think everyone else, took Curry off the list when he got hurt, but it's bizarre to look up at season's end and realize that 2 of the top candidates still have only played about as much as he did.

Tatum is a guy that I'm just finding I have to take very seriously, despite the fact I still don't perceive him as a top tier superstar.

Jokic has been in the lead for me for most of the season and I expect he'll be my MVP choice when the regular season ends.

On Bridges: I get really frustrated at the Booker MVP campaign when people are pointing to the success without Paul without ever seeming to realize that the team missed comparable time without Booker and also did fine. This is clearly a team without any towering MVP candidate, and if we're looking for the guy who has reliably given the team value all year, I'd say it's Bridges, despite the fact that I'll still see Paul & Booker as better playoff players until Bridges demonstrates otherwise.

It will be interesting to see if Jokic keeps the lead on my list, as we expect him to make a relatively quick playoff exit and then we spend a couple of months focusing on guys still playing. Last year he ended up slipping from 1st to 2nd in my vote (behind Giannis), but while Jokic has been considerably stronger this year than last, competition may end up brutal.

On OPOY:

Jokic is a super-strong candidate, and it's easy to see how Curry could end up swooping back in if the Warriors somehow hit their stride going forward.

Thinking a lot about Trae Young here, and whether to take the offense of the Hawks at face value as the team loafs on the treadmill of mediocrity.

On DPOY:

My god this award is impossible right now. Seems likely we'll end up letting the playoffs have a huge say in how this turns out.

I'll give a shout out to Draymond Green as the guy who was clearly going to be my pick if he could have just kept up what he did to start the year.

I struggle to give Gobert serious consideration here. I'm not going to dismiss him out of hand, but the Jazz feel like they've just fallen apart. If they end up getting torched defensively in the playoffs, as has happened before, hard for me to imagine Gobert will make my ballot. To be clear: I'm not in the category of people who acts as Gobert is the problem for the Jazz defense, but I am also asking myself always "What's been achieved this year?"

On ROY:

What a race! Best since 2017 when we had Simmons, Tatum & Mitchell all making waves in the playoffs.

I'm really focused on Mobley & Barnes in my Top 2 at this point, and am hoping to see something amazing in the playoffs that sways me (granted, that's looking less likely for Mobley due to all the injuries in Cleveland).

On MIP:

Haven't put a ton of thought into this yet. I find it to be one of the more tedious awards to exam during the season. I'll certainly look at Ja, but Garland, both Bridges, as well as Bane & JJJ in Memphis also seem like great candidates.

On 6MOY:

Tends to be something where I put a lot of stock in the playoffs. Haven't ever named Montrez my 6MOY, and probably never will unless he does something to wash the bitter taste from my mouth.

Herro seems like the obvious candidate here so far. Some have suggested he plays too many minutes to be a "real 6th man", but I fundamentally disagree with that mindset. We don't give this award because we care who the best 6th-best player on a team is, we give it to celebrate someone taking on a less prestigious role - not getting their name read in the arena as a starter each and every night - to help their team be better.

On COY:

Don't think I can side against Monty right now, but if the team doesn't win the championship, that door will be likely be wide open.

The most eye-opening candidate this year is Taylor Jenkins for the Grizz. Whoda thunk?

Spoelstra also looms. If in the playoffs the team comes together beyond what they've been as an injured team that's somehow still managed to end a #1 seed, he'll be tough to beat.

It's within the realm of possibility - Timelord permitting - that Boston will end up champs, and frankly I could see giving Udoka the award even if they don't quite reach that rare air.

On EOY:

Need to chew on this more. My early EOY pick was Artūras Karnišovas in Chicago in part because he was being proven right where I was wrong with DeRozan. I have to say though, that while I know the team has had injuries, in the end, the team feels like a 1st-Round level team...and that's basically how I saw them before the season. While I am a DeRozan skeptic who has had to admit that DeRozan's played great this year, my main gripe with the Bulls' off-season is that I didn't think they should be chasing the 1st Round, as to me that's not a high enough ceiling to be reaching for.

I think clearly Masai is looking great with the Scottie Barnes pick, and with continuing to stand with his young core.

I have to say Memphis' Adams acquisition has worked marvelously, and I need to eat some crow there.

Brad Stevens deserves a shout out for having the awareness to replace himself as coach with someone he thought could better get through to his players, and then making small shrewd moves to weld a cohesive core back together.

Finally, I think clearly if Harden is great in the playoffs and Philly goes far, Daryl Morey is going to be someone who warrants serious consideration. The miracle of being able to get Harden though was of course built on top of Harden becoming less enticing of an asset. If in the end, Philly ends up back where they started with Simmons, but now with less assets and a much older player who is expecting a super-max deal, then no, I probably won't be giving much consideration to Morey in the end.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#24 » by jalengreen » Sat Apr 9, 2022 6:52 pm

am i overrating luka? i feel like he should be on the POY shortlist if the mavs were able to pull off a run. i don't expect him to win but the guy's a first team all-nba lock and a clear top 5 MVP candidate. hasn't gotten as many mentions as i expected.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#25 » by Texas Chuck » Sat Apr 9, 2022 7:02 pm

easiest call is Gobert for best defender unless Embiid or Bam or ? goes on a deep dominant playoff run. Say whatever you want about the Jazz falling apart down the stretch the gap between the Jazz defense with Gobert on the court versus with him off continues to be by far the biggest in the league. People don't like him and people are tired of him winning, but tough imo. He's still the biggest impact defender in the world. It's him.

Most valuable feels like a 2 man race with Giannis/Jokic. Giannis having the better chance at a deep playoff run probably makes him the favorite. Guys like Embiid, Tatum, Curry, Luka could maybe get into the conversation with a deep and dominant run, but feels like Giannis to lose with Jokic winning out if he can win a round and Giannis can't win 2 or more or plays below his expected standard.

For COY I know Jenkins is the hot name but that culture runs deep and their success goes beyond him. Meanwhile I look at the Suns forever before Monty and the Suns now and everything is so different. Obviously Paul and Crowder deserve some credit too, but this board has never given Paul credit for leadership so consistency wise they should be giving it to Monty.

OPOY feels like Jokic, but there are plenty of other great candidates to mention. Trae hurt by probably not being able to do much in the playoffs and his utter lack of commitment to the other end sabotages his own team and I hate to ignore that and just look at offense. Luka has been brilliant in 2021, but those first couple months means he needs probably 3 rounds of brilliance and I don't see how Dallas beats the Suns in round 2. Curry had a hot start, but then wasn't actually as great as his rep for a long time before getting hurt. Not a fan of reputation votes. KD missed a bunch of time and I don't see the Nets as a playoff threat. Tatum and Booker just aren't on that top level, though a deep run could elevate them and Booker certainly looks like a lock for a long run. And Giannis and Embiid shouldn't be ignored here just because they play differently. Giannis in particular continues to be far and away the most underrated offensive player in the league because of how much we have come to fetishize the 3-pt shot.

Herro is going to win 6th man. Seems fine, I guess.

EOY -- leaning Riley. Added Lowry/Tucker with no assets. Continues to find cheap contributors to fill-in, has his core locked up. They know what kind of players they want and they get them and grow them and make it work.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#26 » by SkyHookFTW » Sat Apr 9, 2022 7:10 pm

Other than the 3-way between Jokic, Embiid, and Giannis, my other choices are still up in the air.

I will say that Maxey deserves some run in the MIP race though.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#27 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Apr 9, 2022 7:13 pm

jalengreen wrote:am i overrating luka? i feel like he should be on the POY shortlist if the mavs were able to pull off a run. i don't expect him to win but the guy's a first team all-nba lock and a clear top 5 MVP candidate. hasn't gotten as many mentions as i expected.


I'm very low on Luka's regular season, and I'll explain why - but let me say up front that I could literally see him lead his team to a championship in any playoff run. The point of the playoffs is to outscore the team on the other side of you. Do that for 4 series against their very best efforts, and you get crowned. I could see Doncic's incredible volume resilience making him rise to #1 on everyone's ballots.

But consider the raw +/- here. If you have Doncic as a clear cut Top 5 guy, you're probably thinking "He's putting up huge stats and his team is better than Jokic, so why shouldn't he be in the mix with Jokic?"

Dallas
Bullock +254
Finney-Smith +227
Brunson +219
Doncic +127

Denver
Jokic +444
Gordon +321
Morris +283

You can see that Jokic has had WAY more on court success than Doncic this year, in terms of how the team has done with him on the court, to the point that the main role players who've managed to just not get hurt for the Nuggets have also had more success than anyone on the Mavericks, and much more than Doncic.

Denver is how things look when you have a superstar carrying a team to success.
Dallas is how things look when you have an ensemble cast that's driving success.

Other MVP candidates don't have quite so stark a difference, but suffice to say there are lots of stars who have had more on-court team success than Doncic this year.

Going back to the big picture here:

There are certain players who generally weren't "regular season MVP types" based on impact data who nevertheless shine in the playoffs by continuing to do their thing in the playoffs. Kobe was like this in general (where Jordan was not), and various veterans tend to become more like this overtime.

Doncic may end up being the first guy I've ever seen who never has anything like a real regular season MVP season, and yet still a GOAT candidate, given that so far, he doesn't seem to be building in the right direction since his 2nd year (which was a big improvement from his rookie year where he had the worst negative +/- of anyone on his team):

'19-20: +253 and 4th on his team in the RS
'20-21: +164 and 2nd on his team in the RS
'21-22: +127 and 4th on his team at almost the end of the RS.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#28 » by eminence » Sat Apr 9, 2022 7:18 pm

Personally I'm pretty solidly lower on Luka's RS than many seem to be. I do think he's the type of player who could have a huge playoffs run and justify a slot on the ballot (I think he'd have to win the title to wind up above the top few guys). Don't have him as a first team lock (he may be in actuality, but not how I'd be voting), but one of many competitors for the non-Steph guard slot. I've been very impressed with his 2/3 this season (Brunson/DFS).
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#29 » by Dutchball97 » Sat Apr 9, 2022 7:22 pm

I'd like to vote again as well.

Weighing regular season and play-offs is always a difficult task but I think most of the time someone has to have at least had an All-NBA level regular season to really contend for POY. For most of those guys they'd still need a run like Giannis had last year to have a realistic case. If the likes of Jokic, Giannis and Embiid have good showings in the post-season I'm not sure how many others could still catch them even with a dominant run. I think Tatum, Luka, Curry, Booker and CP3 are the most serious challengers. Maybe KD, Ja or Butler too if they go deep but they do have more ground to make up than the others due to playing under 60 games in the regular season.

OPOY seems like it's Jokic' to lose. There are a couple other contenders but he has a pretty big lead in my eyes. DPOY is up in the air at the moment. Plenty of options but the post-season will be key for someone to seperate themselves from the pack. I think MIP and 6MOY are similar cases. Herro seems to be a big favorite for the sixth man award but I'm not quite sure if his actual impact reflects that.

COY should be between Monty and Jenkins. Maybe Nurse could get into the mix if the Raptors keep rolling. A similar case could probably be made for Udoka as well. I'm not sure if I'll vote for EOY yet to be honest, I'll have to look into it a bit more.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#30 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Apr 9, 2022 7:38 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:For COY I know Jenkins is the hot name but that culture runs deep and their success goes beyond him. Meanwhile I look at the Suns forever before Monty and the Suns now and everything is so different. Obviously Paul and Crowder deserve some credit too, but this board has never given Paul credit for leadership so consistency wise they should be giving it to Monty.


One thing I'll say here:

I'm on board with giving coaches credit with changing culture, but tend to see it as a thing that happens and then it is done.

Monty changed the culture in '19-20, and I gave him the COY in '20-21 in no small part because of this, so I feel like I'm "good" here. While Monty currently tops my leaderboard for '21-22, I probably won't give him any kind of tiebreaker on the basis of cultural stuff I've already given him credit for.

Re: Grizzlie culture runs deep. Well, do consider that the Grizzlies have never been this good in the history of their franchise before (by SRS, and sustained mid-season dominance) despite the fact they missed their star player a lot this year, and we're only a few years removed from them firing a coach mid-season on their way to 22 wins. At that time, their culture didn't seem to mean much.

The front office deserves credit for hiring Jenkins, making good draft picks, and as far from the Sacramento Kings as a small market can get, but the team success this year is eye-opening to pretty much everyone I think.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#31 » by sp6r=underrated » Sat Apr 9, 2022 10:02 pm

eminence wrote:Personally I'm pretty solidly lower on Luka's RS than many seem to be. I do think he's the type of player who could have a huge playoffs run and justify a slot on the ballot (I think he'd have to win the title to wind up above the top few guys). Don't have him as a first team lock (he may be in actuality, but not how I'd be voting), but one of many competitors for the non-Steph guard slot. I've been very impressed with his 2/3 this season (Brunson/DFS).


I'm not quite as low on Luka as you are but I agree with your overall impression. We're in a Forward/Big time period so making it as a guard on the 1st team is slightly easier. Like you I have Curry slotted for one of the 1st teams currently but the other spot is wide open.

Luka isn't guaranteed for that spot. His war on the refs immaturity is a problem on par with Rasheed.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#32 » by Texas Chuck » Sat Apr 9, 2022 11:00 pm

on Luka -- I don't think he should be an MVP candidate simply because there are too many guys who just played better.

But man do I hate using raw +/- to dismiss players.

The Mavs starting 5 absolutely wrecks opponents. Better offensively than the Death Lineup to give you an idea how good they are. Then the bench comes in the 2nd half of the 1st and 3rd quarters and Luka stays out there with the 2nd unit and they give some back. Then the rest of the starters get to come back in and that always included Brunson and now also includes Dinwiddie.

So Luka's raw plus minus looks mediocre yet, with the starting 5, his numbers are exactly what you'd expect from a player of his caliber. But people don't take the time to look into the rotations(I know I don't--I'm just intimately familiar with Dallas because I follow them closely) and thus lose a lot of context.

We saw this same thing with the Bulls with Mike and Pippen btw. Pippen was always the guy who played with the 2nd unit and Mike played a higher percentage of minutes with the best players. And these numbers have been used against Pippen while ignoring the realities of the lineups.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#33 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:27 am

Texas Chuck wrote:on Luka -- I don't think he should be an MVP candidate simply because there are too many guys who just played better.

But man do I hate using raw +/- to dismiss players.

The Mavs starting 5 absolutely wrecks opponents. Better offensively than the Death Lineup to give you an idea how good they are. Then the bench comes in the 2nd half of the 1st and 3rd quarters and Luka stays out there with the 2nd unit and they give some back. Then the rest of the starters get to come back in and that always included Brunson and now also includes Dinwiddie.

So Luka's raw plus minus looks mediocre yet, with the starting 5, his numbers are exactly what you'd expect from a player of his caliber. But people don't take the time to look into the rotations(I know I don't--I'm just intimately familiar with Dallas because I follow them closely) and thus lose a lot of context.

We saw this same thing with the Bulls with Mike and Pippen btw. Pippen was always the guy who played with the 2nd unit and Mike played a higher percentage of minutes with the best players. And these numbers have been used against Pippen while ignoring the realities of the lineups.


The general perception is that this team is Luka and a bunch of nobodies. Given this, it's weird that Luka requires the perfect other 4 guys around him before the team actually performs well, isn't it?

I get that there's more to look at than raw +/-, but if you can point to any more sophisticated matric in that space that indicates Luka should be seen as an MVP candidate, please let me know, because I haven't found it.

Now again: I am not in any way betting against Luka's capacity to be the best player on the court against any team in the world come post-season time. He's for real...

but there are players who just find ways to contribute massive impact in all settings as lineups shift around them, and there are those that just tend to play their game and count on that working out. Diana Taurasi called this distinction impact players vs flow players - where she was a flow player, and Maya Moore was an impact player.

What I see to this point in Doncic's career, he's more of a "flow" player than an impact player, though this is a misleading name for Doncic because he's not "going with the flow" out there. He's dictating play, and it just so happens that when he does this over the course of his 3 quality regular seasons, we don't see massive impact the way we've seen with various other guys. Doesn't mean Doncic won't come out on top come June, but I think we've seen enough to see that it's a thing.

As a basic of comparison here, unless Doncic goes nuts in the playoffs - which I'll readily agree is a distinct possibility - this will mean 4 years into the NBA after coming in the league a Euroleague MVP, and still never leading his team in +/-, what about other guys we talk about in the MVP conversation in their first 4 years?

Jokic - all 4 years
Giannis - none - didn't do it until his 6th year
Embiid - 3 of his first 4 years
Tatum - 3 of his first 4 years
Curry - 1 of his first 4 years (apologies, thought it was his 5th year, but it was his 4th)

And other guys who have played entirely in this +/- era who have won MVPs:

Duncan - 3 of his first 4 years
Garnett - 2 of his first 4 years
Nash - 2 of his first 4 years
Dirk - 2 of his first 4 years
Kobe - none - didn't do it until his 10th year
LeBron - 3 of his first 4 years
Rose - none - to this point, still hasn't done it in his career
Durant - 1 of his first 4 years
Westbrook - none - didn't do it until his 7th year
Harden - 1 of his first 4 years

And for the record over in the WNBA:

Taurasi - 1 of her first 4 years
Moore - all 8 of the years she played

I so don't want to overstate things indicating that this is a clear, direct relationship between how good a player's career accomplishment will be, but I think we see some similarities recurring. While in some cases there are reasons why a guy might take a while before he's head and shoulders above his teammates on any metric like this, sometimes that's just how the guy rolls.

I don't think it was a mistake for the Lakers to bet on Kobe and I don't think it's a mistake for the Mavs to be on Luka, but I don't think what Luka's done to this point in his career should be seen as creating MVP-level regular seasons.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#34 » by LukaTheGOAT » Sun Apr 10, 2022 1:22 pm

Pretty much none of my choices are cemented except Ja Morant for MIP.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#35 » by Texas Chuck » Sun Apr 10, 2022 1:29 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
The general perception is that this team is Luka and a bunch of nobodies. Given this, it's weird that Luka requires the perfect other 4 guys around him before the team actually performs well, isn't it?

I get that there's more to look at than raw +/-, but if you can point to any more sophisticated matric in that space that indicates Luka should be seen as an MVP candidate, please let me know, because I haven't found it.



I don't care about perception.....

The Mavs are built on depth around Luka. This is what it is. I don't think anyone thinks Brunson or Doe Doe are top 50 players? Top 75 players? But they are good players. Bullock is a good player. Powell excels in his role. Kleber is a good player. Dinwiddie has been good in Dallas etc....

I never will suggest Luka is having to play with scrubs. Just like when Dirk stopped playing with all-stars after Nash, I would never make the claim he didn't have quality supporting casts. They were just more about depth than high end. We should be able to acknowledge that reality without trying to spin some narrative.

And I stated quite clearly I don't think Luka should be an MVP candidate so I'm not going to try and point you to any metric that says he should be. Since Jan 1, he's been an MVP level player, but those first 2 months he was far from it and there are players who have been great all season. He's not a candidate.

But just in theory if every minute Luka sat, Steph came in and played, Luka's on/off isn't going to wow you because this great player came in. And if we are saying that the rest of the Mavs are a good team--a point you were clear about making, then why does it matter that its not Steph, but rather Brunson and Hardaway and Kleber coming in and playing well?

That's my point. My point isn't about Luka, but rather the flaws in using raw on/off and raw +/- to say well this guy isn't as good as this other guy. It inflates guys who don't have deep teams and rewards guys who play with other stars because those stars mostly play together.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#36 » by eminence » Sun Apr 10, 2022 2:46 pm

I think Brunson and DFS both have very strong arguments for top 50 players.

Using DFS/Brunson as a proxy for the non-Luka starters for the Mavs. Nbawowy

Luka/DFS/Brunson - 1130 minutes - 118.6/113.4/+5.2
DFS/Brunson no Luka - 679 minutes - 116.1/106.5/+9.6
Luka/DFS no Brunson - 664 minutes - 110.6/112.5/-1.9
Brunson no Luka/DFS - 525 minutes - 106.8/106.6/+0.2
Luka no DFS/Brunson - 312 minutes - 111.9/102.3/+9.6
None (garbage minutes) - 285 minutes - 100.3/101.5/-1.2
Luka/Brunson no DFS - 165 minutes - 99.4/106.1/-6.7
DFS no Luka/Brunson - 143 minutes - 101.4/96.8/+4.6

Luka's played ~80% of his minutes with DFS on the court, approaching 90% for DFS or Brunson. The 'bench' lineups have been very good in the limited time he's been featured with them (+9.6). It's not the few minutes with the bench dragging Luka down in +/- stats. It's the fairly large sample where the starters have succeeded (+9.6) without Luka and the Luka/no-Brunson starters lineups failing (-1.9).
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#37 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Apr 10, 2022 4:44 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Pretty much none of my choices are cemented except Ja Morant for MIP.


So, everybody take a shot, I'm going to bring up +/-.

Consider this, here's Morant's raw +/- the last two years:

'20-21 +108
'21-22 +189

Now teammate JJJ:

'20-21 -64 (granted he missed most the season)
'21-22 +361

And Bane:

'20-21 +12
'21-22 +361

Is it really that clear that Morant's the MIP of his own team?

And some other guys to consider:

Darius Garland:

'20-21 -237
'21-22 +338

Miles Bridges:

'20-21 -9
'21-22 +142

Mikal Bridges:

'20-21 +337
'21-22 +584

I think Morant is the most exciting young player to watch in the league right now, and of anyone here, I see him as by far the most likely to win an MVP...but in terms of "his team is doing a lot better because he's a lot better", I don't know if he's even in the conversation.

Garland will probably be my pick, though there's a part of me that wants to push Mikal. Beyond that, I'd probably lean to either JJJ or Bane.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#38 » by Dutchball97 » Sun Apr 10, 2022 5:21 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:Pretty much none of my choices are cemented except Ja Morant for MIP.


So, everybody take a shot, I'm going to bring up +/-.

Consider this, here's Morant's raw +/- the last two years:

'20-21 +108
'21-22 +189

Now teammate JJJ:

'20-21 -64 (granted he missed most the season)
'21-22 +361

And Bane:

'20-21 +12
'21-22 +361

Is it really that clear that Morant's the MIP of his own team?

And some other guys to consider:

Darius Garland:

'20-21 -237
'21-22 +338

Miles Bridges:

'20-21 -9
'21-22 +142

Mikal Bridges:

'20-21 +337
'21-22 +584

I think Morant is the most exciting young player to watch in the league right now, and of anyone here, I see him as by far the most likely to win an MVP...but in terms of "his team is doing a lot better because he's a lot better", I don't know if he's even in the conversation.

Garland will probably be my pick, though there's a part of me that wants to push Mikal. Beyond that, I'd probably lean to either JJJ or Bane.


In terms of boxscore production you could make a good case as well with him going from 0.23 WS/48 and -2.1 BPM to .125 WS/48 and 2.5 BPM. Historical EPM isn't available for free but his LEBRON improved from -1.04 to +2.47 and his RAPTOR went from -1.3 to +4.3.

Desmond Bane and Ja Morant also had big statistical leaps though. Mikal and JJJ look pretty similar to last year, to me that makes it pretty hard to have them as MIP candidates. Miles Bridges did make a noticeably statistical leap but less so than Garland, Bane and Morant. I'd also like to add Dejounte Murray to the list as someone who made a big statistical jump. His +- isn't that great though but I do think he at least should be in the conversation.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#39 » by Texas Chuck » Sun Apr 10, 2022 5:24 pm

eminence wrote:I think Brunson and DFS both have very strong arguments for top 50 players.


Very strong surprises me I must say. Essentially this is saying that only the worst 10 teams in the league don't have 2 better players than Dorian and Jalen while also none of the good teams have 3 or more. And we know there are definitely teams with at least 3 players better than both, and some with clearly 4.

But I agree they are good players.

As to the on/off stuff I'll have to try and find the tweet because its a local Mavs twitter guy I don't follow but someone had re-tweeted. But they had the numbers on just how good Dallas with the starters and how much worse they are the latter minutes of the 1st and 3rd. Spurred some real discussion around town about whether or not Kidd should change his rotations.

Goes to Doc's point about what does it tell us about Luka if you can put 5 man units out there with him that are bad. Or it says something about a guy who has fitness questions playing 12 straight minutes and is that the issue, Luka fatigue?

IDK, but I do not its not as simple as the Mavs play well when he sits, because that's simply punishing Luka for Brunson being good which of course makes no sense at all.
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Re: 2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#40 » by eminence » Sun Apr 10, 2022 6:08 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
eminence wrote:I think Brunson and DFS both have very strong arguments for top 50 players.


Very strong surprises me I must say. Essentially this is saying that only the worst 10 teams in the league don't have 2 better players than Dorian and Jalen while also none of the good teams have 3 or more. And we know there are definitely teams with at least 3 players better than both, and some with clearly 4.

But I agree they are good players.


I'll focus here as I think it's more interesting, the +/- stuff comes down to a lot of personal feelings on what data to value.

But what teams do you think have 3 players better (leaning towards having had better seasons, cause Kawhi is obviously better, but also didn't play at all). Looking just at the West quickly, bolding guys I'm not sold on either way.

PHX - CP3, Mikal, Booker, Ayton
MEM - Ja, Bane, JJJ, Adams
GSW - Steph
Jazz - Gobert, Donovan, Conley
DEN - Jokic
MIN - Towns, Edwards
LAC - nobody
NOP - Ingram, Valanciunas
SAS - Murray, Poeltl
LAL - LeBron
SAC - Sabonis
POR - nobody
OKC - nobody
HOU - nobody
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