toooskies wrote:jbk1234 wrote:toooskies wrote:Assuming zero offensive progress from Garland/Mobley/Allen, Sexton being useless/signed elsewhere so Okoro still starts, Okoro staying the same or regressing, and the new SF being a serious step back from Lauri who's only slightly above league average in TS% and can't create his own shot?
If our young guys don't continue to improve we're a treadmill team regardless of who we bring in.
Edit: and that's before getting into pacing discussions with your 100 point barriers, the Cavs played the slowest in the league this year.
In terms off offense, there's a better chance of regression than improvement if the Cavs don't address their spacing issues and no, Sexton does not improve spacing. Not unless he dramatically alters how he plays.
The thing is, Lauri's defense at the 3 isn't that bad. Like I have his defense as a better option than many of the alternatives that you suggested. Having him slotted to take over Love's role in part of a three big rotation is ideal, but until we have a better option at the 3, I don't se the point of subbing a guy in just because he's a more *traditional* SF.
You're not going to convince me that Sexton isn't a spacing improvement over Isaac Okoro. Yes, Sexton can drive off the dribble. He was already improving his 3-point volume to start this past season before Garland emerged, going from ~24% of his shots to ~30% of his shots, with more being assisted than at any other point in his career. He profiled very similarly in shot selection to Caris LeVert, with Sexton only having slightly more shots at the rim.
I can definitely agree that Lauri wasn't bad as our SF. He was surprisingly good, in fact. But can the Cavs win meaningful games with him there, or should we move him to backup PF now when we want to do that eventually anyway? He doesn't have the ballhandling or playmaking to be next to Garland and Okoro in pressure situations, he doesn't have the on-ball defense to be next to Garland and Sexton, so the fit is just wrong with the current roster. Maybe you solve that by resolving the SG spot with someone who can handle the ball, shoot, and be a point-of-attack defender, but finding that guy is harder than, say, swapping Love for Hayward and moving Lauri to the second unit. Or swapping Lauri+ for Simmons, if you can get assurances that he re-signs.
Not saying those options are explicitly out there, most of the time you don't know if guys are available until they're available. And maybe you just wait to see if Love is worth re-signing next offseason before you make a move. Maybe you draft a wing and see if they might be the new SF first. Maybe Stevens develops an outside shot, or Wade develops his all-around game.
Doing nothing is fine, but there's no point trying to see the parts of the team jell in a weird team construction unless we're committed to playing that way long-term. (In which case, let's reinforce the tall-ball roster with another 3/4 or pure 5 in the draft.)
I'm skeptical that Sexton will in anyway improve spacing due to his overall usage, which very, very high, and where he likes to shoot (inside the arc). He drives three out of every four times he has the ball. The name of the game is improving overall team efficiency on offense and it's not clear he does that. There's very little evidence he's a net plus on the floor despite playing with pretty bad teammates his first three years.
As an aside, you have to be concerned with whether his trips the line will continue on those drives where he initiates the contact, or like other players, whether he'll struggle with the game being called differently. You have to be concerned whether Sexton's +/- gets worse if he's asked to take less shots. Some players can scale, others are far less efficient when they're asked to do more, and players like Sexton often times aren't positive players when they're not scoring at a high rate.
Ben Simmons is an awful fit on this roster, like worse than Okoro in the starting unit, and if the Cavs trade for him, they're liable to make Mobley, Garland, and their agents very, very unhappy with possible catastrophic repercussions. The goal here is to build around your best players, not in spite of them. Luckily, I don't see any team actually trading for Simmons until he gets on the court and plays at least a half a season of basketball. He's owed more than $100M over the next three season, and him not suiting up for the Nets suggests that whatever the problem is, it hasn't been resolved. A team cannot avail itself of the medical retirement provision if it trades for the player knowing he has the condition.
Hayward has missed 30 or more games in four out of five of his last seasons, and much to the chagrin of the teams he's played on, he keeps getting injured before the post season. There's a real question in my mind as to whether he has the constitution required to be a starter in an 82-game season. Tying up that cap on him shuts a ton of doors without knowing what might be behind them.
At the end of the day, I'd rather the Cavs be patient and give their best players the proper space on the court to develop. The Cavs cannot control when real needle movers become available. No one anticipated that the Nets would trade Jarret Allen until Harden asked out even a few months before it happened.
Portland is going to try to trade for another star to put next to Dame. If they cannot, Dame might go on the block. Beal may insist on a supermax, and the Wizards would be foolish to give it to him. Kyrie's making public statements like he wants to be in charge of the Nets F.O. Let's see how that sits with the Nets. Fat Thor wants a max deal from the Sixers and he's playing a little better than average this post season. Westbrook needs a new home.
We don't know what the trade landscape will look like three month from now let alone over the next 24 months. I'd rather Altman knife his way into one of those trades as a third team, and pick off a player who could actually be the answer, than bid against the Hornets, Pelicans, Blazers, and Spurs while driving up the price of a guy like LeVert or hoping against hope that Hayward is done getting injured.
