Offseason Plan

[payitforward]

First it was a fixation on Tyus Jones here. Now it's a fixation on Jalen Brunson.

This team is not a good team, ok? It is a bad team. It is a team that for the last several years has averaged 34 wins a season. That won 35 games this season. To put it another way, this is a rebuilding team -- but wait, no, noone likes that word. No matter how bad we are for how many years in a row, "rebuilding" is a bad word: we cannot be "rebuilding." So...

Let's say instead that the Wizards are a rebuilding team -- one that is being rebuilt. At least that's what we hope. In fact, given the pace of roster change (of the 9 guys with guaranteed contracts now, only 3 were on the team at the start of the 2020-21 season, & 1 of those (Deni) was a rookie & another (Rui) was entering his 2d year. Brad is the 3d guy), really we are still just beginning that rebuilding process.

IOW, we are not an already-built team that is, say, one player away (a starting PG) from being good. In fact, we are not one player away from being average either -- &, no, average is not "good." We're not "one player away" from anything. We are many players away from being an above average team.

The 100% guaranteed way for a team at this point in its development to fail -- 100% guaranteed -- is to act like we just need one guy, that missing "piece," so let's go pay big money to get it, & oh boy we'll really win a lotta games, go deep into the playoffs, you name it.

Don't get me wrong; Brunson is a good player. & if you add a good player; you would certainly expect to get better. But "better" doesn't mean the same thing as "good."

We'd be a lot better with the younger Jones, Tre, on a rookie salary than with Tyus or Brunson at what they're going to cost. For which reason, the first step on the PG front should be to try to trade a forward for him. Ideally Kuzma. If not, then Rui.

I'd even be tempted to give Kuzma plus our #10 pick for Jones & SA's #20 -- more than tempted. I'd do it in a minute! I'd even do it if, instead of #20, SA gave us the #25 & #38 -- & we threw in our #54 too for that matter.

Tre Jones is 22, & he's terrific.

[FAH1223]

I like Brunson. A lot. But I also believe that he's probably not the free agent PG that the Zards FO will target, primarily because of his size.

If Ricky Rubio (who went out with a bad knee injury midseason) is healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Zards make a play for him. Rubio was having an outstanding season before the injury.

I also expect Sato to be resigned and could see the Zards drafting Daniels if he's available when they draft.

But keep an eye on TyTy Washington. He's a good shooter from pretty much anywhere on the court, sees the floor well as a passer, and competes hard at both ends of the court. Washington skillset will enable him to play both guard positions.

Limited court vision, no creativity, no quick first step, only adequate ball handler, and will struggle defensively...

[DCZards]

I like Brunson. A lot. But I also believe that he's probably not the free agent PG that the Zards FO will target, primarily because of his size.

If Ricky Rubio (who went out with a bad knee injury midseason) is healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Zards make a play for him. Rubio was having an outstanding season before the injury.

I also expect Sato to be resigned and could see the Zards drafting Daniels if he's available when they draft.

But keep an eye on TyTy Washington. He's a good shooter from pretty much anywhere on the court, sees the floor well as a passer, and competes hard at both ends of the court. Washington skillset will enable him to play both guard positions.

Limited court vision, no creativity, no quick first step, only adequate ball handler, and will struggle defensively...

Agree with you on the first step. TyTy is not a great athlete.

Disagree with you on the court vision. His 17 assists in one game says otherwise.

[dobrojim]

I'm sure this is a pipe dream that we can't afford, but Victor Oladipo....local guy right?
DeMatha. Would he be a better use of money than Beal?

[trast66]

First it was a fixation on Tyus Jones here. Now it's a fixation on Jalen Brunson.

This team is not a good team, ok? It is a bad team. It is a team that for the last several years has averaged 34 wins a season. That won 35 games this season. To put it another way, this is a rebuilding team -- but wait, no, noone likes that word. No matter how bad we are for how many years in a row, "rebuilding" is a bad word: we cannot be "rebuilding." So...

Let's say instead that the Wizards are a rebuilding team -- one that is being rebuilt. At least that's what we hope. In fact, given the pace of roster change (of the 9 guys with guaranteed contracts now, only 3 were on the team at the start of the 2020-21 season, & 1 of those (Deni) was a rookie & another (Rui) was entering his 2d year. Brad is the 3d guy), really we are still just beginning that rebuilding process.

IOW, we are not an already-built team that is, say, one player away (a starting PG) from being good. In fact, we are not one player away from being average either -- &, no, average is not "good." We're not "one player away" from anything. We are many players away from being an above average team.

The 100% guaranteed way for a team at this point in its development to fail -- 100% guaranteed -- is to act like we just need one guy, that missing "piece," so let's go pay big money to get it, & oh boy we'll really win a lotta games, go deep into the playoffs, you name it.

Don't get me wrong; Brunson is a good player. & if you add a good player; you would certainly expect to get better. But "better" doesn't mean the same thing as "good."

We'd be a lot better with the younger Jones, Tre, on a rookie salary than with Tyus or Brunson at what they're going to cost. For which reason, the first step on the PG front should be to try to trade a forward for him. Ideally Kuzma. If not, then Rui.

I'd even be tempted to give Kuzma plus our #10 pick for Jones & SA's #20 -- more than tempted. I'd do it in a minute! I'd even do it if, instead of #20, SA gave us the #25 & #38 -- & we threw in our #54 too for that matter.

Tre Jones is 22, & he's terrific.

Thankfully, everyone has moved on from the Ben Simmons fixation.

[FAH1223]

First it was a fixation on Tyus Jones here. Now it's a fixation on Jalen Brunson.

This team is not a good team, ok? It is a bad team. It is a team that for the last several years has averaged 34 wins a season. That won 35 games this season. To put it another way, this is a rebuilding team -- but wait, no, noone likes that word. No matter how bad we are for how many years in a row, "rebuilding" is a bad word: we cannot be "rebuilding." So...

Let's say instead that the Wizards are a rebuilding team -- one that is being rebuilt. At least that's what we hope. In fact, given the pace of roster change (of the 9 guys with guaranteed contracts now, only 3 were on the team at the start of the 2020-21 season, & 1 of those (Deni) was a rookie & another (Rui) was entering his 2d year. Brad is the 3d guy), really we are still just beginning that rebuilding process.

IOW, we are not an already-built team that is, say, one player away (a starting PG) from being good. In fact, we are not one player away from being average either -- &, no, average is not "good." We're not "one player away" from anything. We are many players away from being an above average team.

The 100% guaranteed way for a team at this point in its development to fail -- 100% guaranteed -- is to act like we just need one guy, that missing "piece," so let's go pay big money to get it, & oh boy we'll really win a lotta games, go deep into the playoffs, you name it.

Don't get me wrong; Brunson is a good player. & if you add a good player; you would certainly expect to get better. But "better" doesn't mean the same thing as "good."

We'd be a lot better with the younger Jones, Tre, on a rookie salary than with Tyus or Brunson at what they're going to cost. For which reason, the first step on the PG front should be to try to trade a forward for him. Ideally Kuzma. If not, then Rui.

I'd even be tempted to give Kuzma plus our #10 pick for Jones & SA's #20 -- more than tempted. I'd do it in a minute! I'd even do it if, instead of #20, SA gave us the #25 & #38 -- & we threw in our #54 too for that matter.

Tre Jones is 22, & he's terrific.

Thankfully, everyone has moved on from the Ben Simmons fixation.

Get defensive dogs.

In the draft.

Undrafted.

Off the scrap heap.

You put a bunch of guys who want to defend and take pride in it, your fortunes change even with a flawed roster.

[dobrojim]

First it was a fixation on Tyus Jones here. Now it's a fixation on Jalen Brunson.

This team is not a good team, ok? It is a bad team. It is a team that for the last several years has averaged 34 wins a season. That won 35 games this season. To put it another way, this is a rebuilding team -- but wait, no, noone likes that word. No matter how bad we are for how many years in a row, "rebuilding" is a bad word: we cannot be "rebuilding." So...

Let's say instead that the Wizards are a rebuilding team -- one that is being rebuilt. At least that's what we hope. In fact, given the pace of roster change (of the 9 guys with guaranteed contracts now, only 3 were on the team at the start of the 2020-21 season, & 1 of those (Deni) was a rookie & another (Rui) was entering his 2d year. Brad is the 3d guy), really we are still just beginning that rebuilding process.

IOW, we are not an already-built team that is, say, one player away (a starting PG) from being good. In fact, we are not one player away from being average either -- &, no, average is not "good." We're not "one player away" from anything. We are many players away from being an above average team.

The 100% guaranteed way for a team at this point in its development to fail -- 100% guaranteed -- is to act like we just need one guy, that missing "piece," so let's go pay big money to get it, & oh boy we'll really win a lotta games, go deep into the playoffs, you name it.

Don't get me wrong; Brunson is a good player. & if you add a good player; you would certainly expect to get better. But "better" doesn't mean the same thing as "good."

We'd be a lot better with the younger Jones, Tre, on a rookie salary than with Tyus or Brunson at what they're going to cost. For which reason, the first step on the PG front should be to try to trade a forward for him. Ideally Kuzma. If not, then Rui.

I'd even be tempted to give Kuzma plus our #10 pick for Jones & SA's #20 -- more than tempted. I'd do it in a minute! I'd even do it if, instead of #20, SA gave us the #25 & #38 -- & we threw in our #54 too for that matter.

Tre Jones is 22, & he's terrific.

Thankfully, everyone has moved on from the Ben Simmons fixation.

Get defensive dogs.

In the draft.

Undrafted.

Off the scrap heap.

You put a bunch of guys who want to defend and take pride in it, your fortunes change even with a flawed roster.

It's a lot easier to get high quality shots off of TOs. This becomes ever more true in the playoffs.
So getting great defensive players can improve your offense.

[payitforward]

One of the reasons I really like GPII. Do the Warriors have him locked up going foward? Wait, I'll look....

Nope, he's a UFA. The kind of vet I like -- very cheap & very productive.

[WallToWall]

The Wizards have the $10.3 million mid-level exception, and the $4.1 bi-annual exception. Who can they sign?

[bsilver]

Not getting good starting pg from MLE or draft.
Really like Brunson. Rather pay him the 25M and let Beal walk. Use savings and draft to improve wing positions.
Don’t think this has any chance of happening. Paying Beal max will be huge mistake.

[Rafael122]

The Wizards have the $10.3 million mid-level exception, and the $4.1 bi-annual exception. Who can they sign?

Can they split the BAE? If so, I'd take a flyer on Oladipo.

[nate33]

The Wizards have the $10.3 million mid-level exception, and the $4.1 bi-annual exception. Who can they sign?

Can they split the BAE? If so, I'd take a flyer on Oladipo.

One half of the BAE is basically a vet minimum contract, and we can pass out an unlimited number of those (as can everyone else). A vet minimum contract would pay Oladipo, as a 9-year veteran, $2.4M.

Basically Oladipo will have vet minimum offers from everywhere. To woo him here, we'd have to pay more, the full BAE at least.

[GoneShammGone]

One of the reasons I really like GPII. Do the Warriors have him locked up going foward? Wait, I'll look....

Nope, he's a UFA. The kind of vet I like -- very cheap & very productive.

Gotta agree with PIF here. No sense in paying big money to any point guard over the age of 25. We are not going to be a top-tier team next year with Brad here, so let's keep developing young players and hope we can reach a point where we have the assets to get a really good *young* point guard (like D Murray for instance---we don't have what it takes to trade for a guy like that, but maybe if we draft well for once, we can get there).

In the meantime, sign Sato and GPIII. They will be solid and entertaining next year, and together cost 1/5th of Jalen Brunson.

[WallToWall]

The Wizards have the $10.3 million mid-level exception, and the $4.1 bi-annual exception. Who can they sign?

Can they split the BAE? If so, I'd take a flyer on Oladipo.

One half of the BAE is basically a vet minimum contract, and we can pass out an unlimited number of those (as can everyone else). A vet minimum contract would pay Oladipo, as a 9-year veteran, $2.4M.

Basically Oladipo will have vet minimum offers from everywhere. To woo him here, we'd have to pay more, the full BAE at least.

I like the Oladipo possibility. He is from the DC area so it will be like a home coming for him, and not a bad way to end a career if he chooses to stay here longish term.

[payitforward]

What good does it do the Wizards future to sign a vet to end his career with us?

Smoke & mirrors, maybe: "they got Oladipo," pronounces the casual fan...

[WallToWall]

What good does it do the Wizards future to sign a vet to end his career with us?
Smoke & mirrors, maybe: "they got Oladipo," pronounces the casual fan...

He seems to have enough left in the tank. 23 pts on 8/16 shooting in his last game. Till we are able to get a more viable solution at PG, Oladipo is not a bad option. Even though he is listed as a SG, he can handle the ball well enough. One can make the case that Oladipo handles the ball better than Beal, and we've tried Beal at PG. If Beal stays, then a back court of Oladipo and Beal can be pretty good. I'd rather see the team go young, and do a rebuild - trade everyone over 26 yo, and get younger. If Beal stays, then why not give Oladipo a 3yr contract...?

[payitforward]

Enough left in the tank to do what?

Are we patching/repainting a hole in a wall? Do we have a plan? If so, how does he fit?

[doclinkin]

Enough left in the tank to do what?

Are we patching/repainting a hole in a wall? Do we have a plan? If so, how does he fit?

I think we all agree that the best plan would be to time travel back to when Beal was at peak value, and trade him for future assets. Ditto Bertans, etc. Ditto trading down in each draft for multiple picks, in that year or future years. And selecting the absolute best player available, with the benefit of living in the future now and knowing what those picks will be. Still, we didn't do that and are unlikely to do so now. Yes signing and trading Beal to a team of his choice, or simply outright letting him walk are also solid ideas that will probably not happen.

So. If we take as a given that for this year at least we will have a re-signed Beal, as all reports seem to indicate, what then is the best plan we can come up with in the interim. Yes at some point we may trade Beal on his new contract, even if he has less trade value.

Tommy has been given a mandate of Now-ness in every year. No tanking, try to build a decent team. One that perhaps can win more than they lose, for a start. Tommy still knows that kicks the future down the road a bit further. Still, Under that edict, he has been careful to land young players and future picks, so maybe we can grow our own future.

Put yourself in his shoes and try to imagine a plan under that mandate. Yes under this exercise you will have to accept that you will be handicapped by a big contract paid to a player who has been at best 'pretty good'. Given that: What is the best team you can build around that guy, while still collecting assets for the future?

That is the exercise that people have been working with here. We know it does not lead to a championship while Beal is a Wizard. But what is the closest you can come, or fastest you can get there, while pulling the drag chute of 'too much money invested in an injured player who was never a consensus all-star'.

For right now: Anything other than that is shouting at the sun for setting, raging at the tide.

[payitforward]

That's all totally accurate, doc. But, why should we be realistic in that sense?

Plus, thinking along those lines I don't imagine that any of us would have come up with the trade of John Wall for Russ -- & certainly not the trade of Russ to the Lakers. Not to mention the plethora of other completely surprising moves Tommy has engineered.

E.g. Tommy's first team, 2019-20, included only 5 guys who'd been with the team the previous year. Of those guys, 1 was Bryant whom Tommy had brought in the previous year, & another was the just-turned-20 Troy Brown Jr. entering his 2d year in the league.

Then, the following year, we wound up with 10 new players again!

Plus, this season, we started off with 8 guys who hadn't been on the team when the previous season began -- then added 4 different guys at the deadline!

No one can call Tommy boring! No one kicks the can down the road in as surprising a fashion as Mr. Sheppard!

[doclinkin]

That's all totally accurate, doc. But, why should we be realistic in that sense?

Plus, thinking along those lines I don't imagine that any of us would have come up with the trade of John Wall for Russ -- & certainly not the trade of Russ to the Lakers. Not to mention the plethora of other completely surprising moves Tommy has engineered.
...

No one can call Tommy boring! No one kicks the can down the road in as surprising a fashion as Mr. Sheppard!

Sure but that frees us up to propose the wildest possible deals that would fit under the guidelines given. The question is not "What should we do?" but "What should Tommy do?" Not what *will* he do, which yeah, is clearly something difficult to guess.

What is the best team we can build under the restraints that Tommy has surely been given. And what gives us the best chance for the future?

If you (collective you) were the GM and given Ted's double bottom happy talk, what is the best you could do to build a good team now, and a chance for a future better team. See if we can 'out-Tommy' Tommy.

I suspect that means: build a team around Porzingis + a re-signed Beal, that produces a better record next year, without bankrupting the future, has a prayer of eventual contention. It's both a low bar, and a tricky challenge. Given that handicap, what squad can you build?