Who do you want us to take at #1?

[MAGICian619]

With the way the top 3 played out last night, it seems like top 3 all go to ideal fits:

#1 Magic - Jabari
#2 Thunder - Chet
#3 Rockets - Paolo

[swarlesbarkley]

What a lottery! I expected 3-4 and I wanted us to take Ivey at #3 or #4 but at #1 I'm not sure.

Like most, Chet's body scares me. He's also not exciting. I know I know, winning is exciting, but at some point you need a character on the team to get NBA attention. Gobert is a winning player and no one likes him or watching him.

The obvious pick seems to be Jabari. If there's any bit of the Magic scouting team that believes he can develop into a playmaker in the style of Kawhi - that's obviously the pick. The stat that concerns me about Jabari is out of the top 5 picks from the past 10 years, Jabari took the most contested shots. Does that mean he can't create for himself at all? Or does that me his teammate were terrible and didn't have any gravity? Those contested shots are going to be even more difficult in the NBA. I'd like a #1 pick to be able to create offense. He also seems passive on the court - not sure we want that in a #1.

Paolo is interesting as a big playmaker and scorer. If the scouting team thinks he can develop into a plus defender, he might be the obvious pick. He'd be a much better fit with us if our guards were good 3pt shooters but current squad shouldn't really be considered much with the #1 pick.

Ivey is the best fit with our current squad if JI can return to 2020 JI. He'd bring instant offense and an attitude that we need.

Honestly, I hope we trade back with OKC - something like #1 + #32 for #2 + #12 and pick up Jabari/Paolo and Sharpe somehow.

[tiderulz]

I have Chet as the clear No.1 but i like Jabari too. Paolo would be a nightmare for me

I just think Chet not only got the higher upside, but also a easier path to become a top impact player than the other 2. Because he got all the skills & BBIQ necessary already. He just needs to stay healthy & add some pounds. Jabari just lacks skills that are super hard to learn at this age (dribbling/driving & passing). Paolo's combination of lack of length & instincts are super hard to overcome too to be at least not a negative defender + his offense lacks alot too, despite his skills. 3P shot / is he explosive enough to get by a NBA defender? / offensive efficiency.

Chet needs to add mass, the one thing every player in the leaque does over time. The others need to learn or refine skills. Thats much harder to do.

easier said than done, mostly because his frame is not one that will carry a lot of mass.

[Knightro]

Several reputable mock drafters released fresh mocks after last night's lottery. Do you notice a trend?

Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated.

1. Magic: Jabari Smith Jr., F, Auburn
Height: 6' 10" | Weight: 220 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Orlando struck gold on Tuesday, converting on top odds and winning the lottery for the first time since 2004, when they landed a franchise-changing player in Dwight Howard. While the broader narrative has been that the top of this draft is wide open, for most of the past six months, the vast majority of executives I’ve spoken with around the NBA consider Smith the big prize in this year’s class. The Magic will certainly do their due diligence on all of the top prospects, but for the time being, I’d operate under the assumption the pick will be Smith. His arrival might mean that Orlando moves on from Jonathan Isaac in the long run; whose checkered injury history makes it difficult to view him as an essential piece of the rebuild.

Smith is the youngest of the top prospects by a meaningful margin and brings a rare collection of plus attributes to the table: great positional size, elite jump shooting, modern defensive versatility and an advanced competitive mindset. Smith will have to expand his array of moves and work on getting to the rim more often, but there’s so much to like about a prospect who is polished in so many ways, yet still at a highly nascent stage of his basketball development. I’d take him at the top with confidence.

https://www.si.com/nba/2022/05/18/nba-mock-draft-orlando-magic-lottery-win-jabari-smith-chet-holmgren-paolo-banchero

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic

1. Orlando Magic
Jabari Smith Jr. | 6-10 forward | 19 years old | Auburn
Smith is my favorite prospect in the class because he possesses the combination of skills that are most in-demand in the current NBA. He’s an elite shooter who made 42 percent from 3 in 2021-22 while also possessing enough athleticism and shot-creation ability to get to his pull-up jumper. I see him as an efficient 20-plus point-per-game scorer and a versatile defender who can switch across multiple positions. Elite shooting and strong defense are the best possible baseline for a teenage NBA player.

Smith must improve as a passer and ballhandler attacking the rim. He was a good but not great finisher, and he hasn’t shown an ability to make multi-layered passing reads. But I think he’s the safest prospect in this class, and he retains a lot of upside because of his shot-creation skill, especially when generating stepback jumpers.

The Magic simply just need elite talent, and they’ll likely take the best player available. With that being the case, I like Smith as that guy for them. The team has a lot of pieces across the position spectrum and should just take the guy they think works best for them.

https://theathletic.com/3312706/2022/05/17/nba-mock-draft-2022/ ($)

Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report

1. Orlando Magic: Jabari Smith (Auburn, PF, Freshman)

This was a fitting year for the Magic to win the lottery, as they can finally add the franchise big man they've needed to pair with Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner. Smith figures to be the target for the NBA's No. 29 offense and No. 28 three-point shooting team. He'll give Orlando's guards a target to kick to or feature around the post. And though it's unclear what will happen with restricted free agent Mo Bamba, they'd pair well together because of Smith's perimeter skills and Bamba's shot-blocking.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2956172-2022-nba-mock-draft-full-2-rounds-post-draft-lottery-edition

[MAGICian619]

IMO Jabari Smith has the highest floor and the highest ceiling. I think he at this point he is an obvious pick for the Magic. Jabari has potential star written all over him.

Chet, while I think will be really good, screams high level role player. Will probably end up making some team much better but don't think he can ever truly be the #1 player on a team.

Paolo, I would stay away from. Going to eventually be a solid 18-20 ppg with little else to add. To me he is an old school PF forcing his way to play like a wing. As some have said, he could even make an all star team or two in his career, but there is a definite gap between 1/2 and 3.

[GelbeWand09]

I have Chet as the clear No.1 but i like Jabari too. Paolo would be a nightmare for me

I just think Chet not only got the higher upside, but also a easier path to become a top impact player than the other 2. Because he got all the skills & BBIQ necessary already. He just needs to stay healthy & add some pounds. Jabari just lacks skills that are super hard to learn at this age (dribbling/driving & passing). Paolo's combination of lack of length & instincts are super hard to overcome too to be at least not a negative defender + his offense lacks alot too, despite his skills. 3P shot / is he explosive enough to get by a NBA defender? / offensive efficiency.

Chet needs to add mass, the one thing every player in the leaque does over time. The others need to learn or refine skills. Thats much harder to do.

easier said than done, mostly because his frame is not one that will carry a lot of mass.

Yea sure, i doubt he will ever weigh 240+ but he can add functional strength. Garnett was super skinny til his late 20's and was strong & never missed a game. On defense he got toughness, timing & length to overcome alot & on offense he got awesome touch to finish, even when he got bumped. We have WCJ to defend the heavyweights.

[drsd]

If we draft Jabari, then Sharpe, Mathurin or Malaki Branham at 12. Really would want one of Mathurin or Sharpe and would trade up even more if needed. We still have Cole, Ross, 2nd rd picks and future picks if needed to do another trade.

If the Magic trade down to #2 and #12, and then end up with Smith and Mathurin, I will feel like WeHamm could have a real shot at management awards.




..

[tiderulz]

What a lottery! I expected 3-4 and I wanted us to take Ivey at #3 or #4 but at #1 I'm not sure.

Like most, Chet's body scares me. He's also not exciting. I know I know, winning is exciting, but at some point you need a character on the team to get NBA attention. Gobert is a winning player and no one likes him or watching him.

The obvious pick seems to be Jabari. If there's any bit of the Magic scouting team that believes he can develop into a playmaker in the style of Kawhi - that's obviously the pick. The stat that concerns me about Jabari is out of the top 5 picks from the past 10 years, Jabari took the most contested shots. Does that mean he can't create for himself at all? Or does that me his teammate were terrible and didn't have any gravity? Those contested shots are going to be even more difficult in the NBA. I'd like a #1 pick to be able to create offense. He also seems passive on the court - not sure we want that in a #1.

Paolo is interesting as a big playmaker and scorer. If the scouting team thinks he can develop into a plus defender, he might be the obvious pick. He'd be a much better fit with us if our guards were good 3pt shooters but current squad shouldn't really be considered much with the #1 pick.

Ivey is the best fit with our current squad if JI can return to 2020 JI. He'd bring instant offense and an attitude that we need.

Honestly, I hope we trade back with OKC - something like #1 + #32 for #2 + #12 and pick up Jabari/Paolo and Sharpe somehow.

i also believe he was the youngest person on that team. being only 18 can play into being a bit passive

[KillMonger]

Watch on YouTube

[VFX]

I have Chet as the clear No.1 but i like Jabari too. Paolo would be a nightmare for me

I just think Chet not only got the higher upside, but also a easier path to become a top impact player than the other 2. Because he got all the skills & BBIQ necessary already. He just needs to stay healthy & add some pounds. Jabari just lacks skills that are super hard to learn at this age (dribbling/driving & passing). Paolo's combination of lack of length & instincts are super hard to overcome too to be at least not a negative defender + his offense lacks alot too, despite his skills. 3P shot / is he explosive enough to get by a NBA defender? / offensive efficiency.

Chet needs to add mass, the one thing every player in the leaque does over time. The others need to learn or refine skills. Thats much harder to do.

easier said than done, mostly because his frame is not one that will carry a lot of mass.

Yea sure, i doubt he will ever weigh 240+ but he can add functional strength. Garnett was super skinny til his late 20's and was strong & never missed a game. On defense he got toughness, timing & length to overcome alot & on offense he got awesome touch to finish, even when he got bumped. We have WCJ to defend the heavyweights.

Give me an example of a 7 footer with his frame that is dominating todays league. Kevin Garnett had shoulders. You can fit two Holmgren frames inside 1 Giannis frame.

Kristaps Porzingis is the only player with his profile I can think of off the top of my head. People had the same concerns with him and he’s now broken.

[tiderulz]

I have Chet as the clear No.1 but i like Jabari too. Paolo would be a nightmare for me

I just think Chet not only got the higher upside, but also a easier path to become a top impact player than the other 2. Because he got all the skills & BBIQ necessary already. He just needs to stay healthy & add some pounds. Jabari just lacks skills that are super hard to learn at this age (dribbling/driving & passing). Paolo's combination of lack of length & instincts are super hard to overcome too to be at least not a negative defender + his offense lacks alot too, despite his skills. 3P shot / is he explosive enough to get by a NBA defender? / offensive efficiency.

Chet needs to add mass, the one thing every player in the leaque does over time. The others need to learn or refine skills. Thats much harder to do.

easier said than done, mostly because his frame is not one that will carry a lot of mass.

Yea sure, i doubt he will ever weigh 240+ but he can add functional strength. Garnett was super skinny til his late 20's and was strong & never missed a game. On defense he got toughness, timing & length to overcome alot & on offense he got awesome touch to finish, even when he got bumped. We have WCJ to defend the heavyweights.

yeah, but Kevin had a better frame and was already 20 lbs heavier while also being a year younger than Chet when he was drafted

[MagicFan12345]

Weltham said Magic is not trading the pick in his press conference last night so trading down is out

[swarlesbarkley]

Weltham said Magic is not trading the pick in his press conference last night so trading down is out

Or it's the beginning of the smoke and mirrors.

[swarlesbarkley]

Fultz + Wagner + Smith + WCJ is pretty tasty. Fultz might average 10 assists per game. Would love to pick up a SG who can consistently knock down a 3 but those guys, despite our futility in finding one lately, are the easiest to find in free agency.

[Petre1978]

Not a single basketball related reason not to take Chet first. He does literally everything on the floor and does it at 7’1”.

Just have Wendell guard Embiid and Joker the 5 times a year we play them.

In the end, the FO is gonna get a much closer look at whoever they pick than any of us.

[MAGICian619]

Not a single basketball related reason not to take Chet first. He does literally everything on the floor and does it at 7’1”.

Just have Wendell guard Embiid and Joker the 5 times a year we play them.

In the end, the FO is gonna get a much closer look at whoever they pick than any of us.

Yes there is. His name is Jabari Smith.

[Horcy]

It's not even a question to me. Jabari Smith jr.
End of story.

[jezzerinho]

Watch on YouTube

Like I said in my big ramble on Page 3, it's the risk that Paolo ends up a one-way player that worries most. Franz is an ok defender, but if you team him with Banchero at the 4 and Paolo doesn't improve his defence hugely, you're in a lot of trouble.

[GelbeWand09]

easier said than done, mostly because his frame is not one that will carry a lot of mass.

Yea sure, i doubt he will ever weigh 240+ but he can add functional strength. Garnett was super skinny til his late 20's and was strong & never missed a game. On defense he got toughness, timing & length to overcome alot & on offense he got awesome touch to finish, even when he got bumped. We have WCJ to defend the heavyweights.

Give me an example of a 7 footer with his frame that is dominating todays league. Kevin Garnett had shoulders. You can fit two Holmgren frames inside 1 Giannis frame.

Kristaps Porzingis is the only player with his profile I can think of off the top of my head. People had the same concerns with him and he’s now broken.

Like i wrote before. I see nor Porzingis at all. Porz was stiff even before the injuries & is freaking 7-3/4. For me every player over 7'0 is a walking injury waiting to happen.
Again functional strength is not mass. You can look skinny & still be strong. Thats what he needs to add. He obviously gonna add some weight too like everyone. Sure he still gonna look skinny.

The problem again is. Your concerns i can understand fully but there is no sure thing this draft. No Cade No 3 level scoring playmaker. No big elite 2way scoring wing.

I can ask the same question.
Which player who cant dribble or pass is dominating the NBA?
Which player with Banchero's play style & body/athletic tools is?
Which Guard with questionable handling, shooting & passing like Ivey is?

I know we will never come together in this case, but you are one of my favorite posters & i absolutely respect your opinion on this. One of my first thoughts opening realgm today was ''Matic gonna hate this''

[JBSouthpaw]

Not a single basketball related reason not to take Chet first. He does literally everything on the floor and does it at 7’1”.

Just have Wendell guard Embiid and Joker the 5 times a year we play them.

In the end, the FO is gonna get a much closer look at whoever they pick than any of us.

Hollinger wrote a couple basketball reasons here:
4. Chet Holmgren | 7-1 freshman | C | Gonzaga

A lot of the concerns about Holmgren have to deal with his frame. At 7-1 and just 195 pounds, will he be more prone to injuries? Will he hold up to the pounding of a routine NBA game multiplied by 82? The visual is hard to ignore — he looks like somebody might break him in half — but I’m wondering if these worries are missing the real issue. Career-length issues for bigs are usually driven by lower extremity injuries; the fact that Holmgren’s light build puts less strain on his knees and ankles could end up being a major positive for his long-term durability.

The real thing to wonder about with Holmgren is whether drafting a 7-1 center in the top five makes any sense unless he’s basically guaranteed to play in the All-Star game. Holmgren definitely has some huge positives — few bigs have shown as much juice off the dribble at a young age, his 3-point shot is already reliable enough to be a passable long-range floor spacer (39.0 percent from 3 as a freshman), and he finishes everything around the basket (73.7 percent on 2s).

Holmgren also controls the paint like few others, with an absurd 12.6 percent block rate and 28.7 percent Defensive Rebound Rate. NBA teams still are skittish about playing zone, but Holmgren could be an awesome zone defender.

Three issues prevent him from ranking higher here. First, the skinny body really limits his ability to have any kind of post game. There is virtually no cost to switching a guard on him. He can shoot and handle a bit, but offensively he’s trending toward Myles Turner.

Second, nobody talks about this, but Holmgren is a year older than most freshmen, with a May 2002 birthdate. For comparison, the next player on my board, Bennedict Mathurin, has played two years at Arizona but is a month younger than Holmgren.

Lastly, the defensive tape is perhaps not quite as awesome as the stats might make you believe, particularly in switch situations. The Synergy stats say he performed well against isolations, but several of those plays featured missed bunnies at the rim, and the sample is small enough that it matters. Holmgren typically gave up a driving lane to one side and then relied on his length to contest at the summit, but often didn’t get there in time.
https://theathletic.com/3317217/2022/05/18/nba-draft-2022-top-20-prospects/