Draft Thread - Kings move up to #4

[LightTheBeam]

Really looking rough that Monte hired Brown for 4 years, still hasn't received an extension, and may be desperate to trade #4 for "win now" talent even if it doesn't really dramatically improve our long term outlook. I'm bracing myself for an underwhelming trade which will likely be Vivek's fault for the continued playoff mandate.

REMOVE VIVEK

Maybe I'm being delusional, but I think Monte making a crap, win-now trade (like when the Wizards traded #5--IN A STACKED DRAFT!!!--for Miller and Foye) would effectively eliminate him from ever being a GM again. He could claim all he wanted about how "his owner wanted to win", but you just can't come back from something like that.

In my mind, the Kings have a clear problem: they don't have enough top end talent. Fox and Sabonis? OK, sure. Sabonis is an allstar level player and Fox might be as well, but neither is franchise level. Together they aren't good enough to lead you to the playoffs--irregardless of what you put around them. So to me, the Kings need to come up with a "3rd guy" here. They can draft one (be it Murray, Ivey, Sharpe, whoever) or trade for one. But the worst possible thing they can do is dilute the value of the pick into a bunch of role players or trade down a handful of spots for a bench player.

I guess it just depends how good you think Fox/Sabonis can be. Lots of teams with the 3 stars - no depth got bounced in the playoffs pretty early or missed the playoffs entirely. Id hate for this franchise to trade for say John Collins, and try to sell that to me as a "3rd star" with Fox/Sabonis.

Boston, GS, Dallas, Miami were all 1-2 stars surrounded by really good/elite role players. Obviously we don't have a Tatum, Butler, Luka, or Curry. But our depth is also terrible.

Now if you don't think Fox can be a top 2 player on a playoff team, then its probably time to sell him even if we don't get much of a return. I do believe he can be.

I posted a deal on the T&T board which basically had us turning Holmes + expirings + #4 into Keldon, Vassell, Morris, Mann. I'm guessing you hate that kind of a deal (I definitely don't love it). But id rather do that kind of deal than have the Kings sell me on John Collins or Jerami Grant being a 3rd star.

IMO best thing Monte can do is just take BPA. If that's Ivey so be it. Lets see what teams have fallen out around the deadline and who becomes available. Because right now the trade market doesn't look promising.

[rpa]

I guess it just depends how good you think Fox/Sabonis can be. Lots of teams with the 3 stars - no depth got bounced in the playoffs pretty early or missed the playoffs entirely. Id hate for this franchise to trade for say John Collins, and try to sell that to me as a "3rd star" with Fox/Sabonis.

Boston, GS, Dallas, Miami were all 1-2 stars surrounded by really good/elite role players. Obviously we don't have a Tatum, Butler, Luka, or Curry. But our depth is also terrible.

The bolded is really my point. Sure we could try to add depth, but at the end of the day Fox and Sabonis just aren't THAT good. They aren't "carry a bad team good".

I think the goal should be to get a player who's about as impactful overall as Fox or Sabonis and then use Holmes (specifically) to try and acquire some more depth at forward.

[LightTheBeam]

I guess it just depends how good you think Fox/Sabonis can be. Lots of teams with the 3 stars - no depth got bounced in the playoffs pretty early or missed the playoffs entirely. Id hate for this franchise to trade for say John Collins, and try to sell that to me as a "3rd star" with Fox/Sabonis.

Boston, GS, Dallas, Miami were all 1-2 stars surrounded by really good/elite role players. Obviously we don't have a Tatum, Butler, Luka, or Curry. But our depth is also terrible.

The bolded is really my point. Sure we could try to add depth, but at the end of the day Fox and Sabonis just aren't THAT good. They aren't "carry a bad team good".

I think the goal should be to get a player who's about as impactful overall as Fox or Sabonis and then use Holmes (specifically) to try and acquire some more depth at forward.

That is certainly ideal, I just don't know who is actually available. Early reports that Mitchell isn't going to be traded. Gobert doesn't fit our team. If you see one of those players available Id love to know who.

Now again, I'm on board with drafting BPA, waiting until the deadline and then hoping we can pull a similar trade as last year. In the meantime we could trade Holmes for a forward, sign OPJ to a mid-level contract and hope that's enough.

We probably wind up exactly where we were last year, too late to salvage the season and we are talking about next year finally being the year. Monte probably gets fired, and then we are right back to square one with a new GM and a coach signed for 3 years than he didn't hire. The roster would be in better shape, but I still think Monte gets more desperate than that.

[City of Trees]

I always wondered why such a talented player like Eason only came off the bench. The Draft board has a podcast link referencing multiple teams leaking Eason bombed their workouts. Rumor has it he's a low IQ player who possibly had issues learning the plays. Normally, at this time of year you take these rumors with a grain of salt, however Eason's path and not starting leaves me buying the rumor. All-world talent but might lack the necessary IQ to put it together. High risk -high reward lotto pick. Eason could slide on draft night.

[OxAndFox]

To me, Banchero feels like a Presti guy.
I also wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets took Ivey to pair with Green. They could go either wa. so it will just depend on what they see in Ivey. Having said that the tricky thing is I believe the Rockets would choose Ivey over Banchero, but not over Chet so if Presti does in fact go with Banchero the Kings are back to where they began.

[Silver Man]

I always wondered why such a talented player like Eason only came off the bench. The Draft board has a podcast link referencing multiple teams leaking Eason bombed their workouts. Rumor has it he's a low IQ player who possibly had issues learning the plays. Normally, at this time of year you take these rumors with a grain of salt, however Eason's path and not starting leaves me buying the rumor. All-world talent but might lack the necessary IQ to put it together. High risk -high reward lotto pick. Eason could slide on draft night.

FWIW Scottie Barnes used to come off the bench at Florida State.

[BoogieTime]

To me, Banchero feels like a Presti guy.
I also wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets took Ivey to pair with Green. They could go either wa. so it will just depend on what they see in Ivey. Having said that the tricky thing is I believe the Rockets would choose Ivey over Banchero, but not over Chet so if Presti does in fact go with Banchero the Kings are back to where they began.

Who is playing point guard between Ivey and Green? Do you believe Ivey is a point guard?

I feel these ideas of someone really liking Ivey are coming from someone really hopeful on one of the consensus three

Is Ivey a SG in how he isnt a playmaker and who he will defend, and who needs a SG in the top 3?

[OxAndFox]

To me, Banchero feels like a Presti guy.
I also wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets took Ivey to pair with Green. They could go either wa. so it will just depend on what they see in Ivey. Having said that the tricky thing is I believe the Rockets would choose Ivey over Banchero, but not over Chet so if Presti does in fact go with Banchero the Kings are back to where they began.

Who is playing point guard between Ivey and Green? Do you believe Ivey is a point guard?

I feel these ideas of someone really liking Ivey are coming from someone really hopeful on one of the consensus three

Is Ivey a SG in how he isnt a playmaker and who he will defend, and who needs a SG in the top 3?

I think Ivey can be a combo guard. It's a very good question about playmaking and defense though.
No doubt he needs to work on a lot of areas (defense mainly), however, his star potential is clear and that might be what the Rockets want next to Green.
Kevin Porter Jr played the PG position for the Rockets and Ivey would do the same, eventually. KPJ actually had a higher usage than Green last year, but I would say the Rockets would switch that up and some this coming season.
The reason I wouldn't count KPJ as a long-term piece is he is one moment away from ending his career. He can't be trusted, is in a contract year and I wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets look to cash in on him. He would be able to start with Ivey coming off the bench until they found a buyer.
It's a guard/wing driven league and Ivey is the best player available to them unless, of course, Chet falls to them which is gaining some momentum.
I also think Ivey's lack of shooting is overblown. He was more in line with Mathurin (who I really like) shooting this past season and being a gym rat, he will improve.

I don't believe the hype coming out that says OKC wants Ivey. Presti has never really operated that way so I can't see him starting now.
Banchero's playmaking skills are what would interest Presti and would fit very well with SGA/Giddey and I could see them taking Williams with #12 as their starting 5 or moving up with picks/players to grab Duren as the #1 option as they do need to package picks in this draft.
SGA/Dort/Giddey/Banchero/Duren is easily the best young core in the NBA.

[BoogieTime]

To me, Banchero feels like a Presti guy.
I also wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets took Ivey to pair with Green. They could go either wa. so it will just depend on what they see in Ivey. Having said that the tricky thing is I believe the Rockets would choose Ivey over Banchero, but not over Chet so if Presti does in fact go with Banchero the Kings are back to where they began.

Who is playing point guard between Ivey and Green? Do you believe Ivey is a point guard?

I feel these ideas of someone really liking Ivey are coming from someone really hopeful on one of the consensus three

Is Ivey a SG in how he isnt a playmaker and who he will defend, and who needs a SG in the top 3?

I think Ivey can be a combo guard. It's a very good question about playmaking and defense though.
No doubt he needs to work on a lot of areas (defense mainly), however, his star potential is clear and that might be what the Rockets want next to Green.
Kevin Porter Jr played the PG position for the Rockets and Ivey would do the same, eventually. KPJ actually had a higher usage than Green last year, but I would say the Rockets would switch that up and some this coming season.
The reason I wouldn't count KPJ as a long-term piece is he is one moment away from ending his career. He can't be trusted, is in a contract year and I wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets look to cash in on him. He would be able to start with Ivey coming off the bench until they found a buyer.
It's a guard/wing driven league and Ivey is the best player available to them unless, of course, Chet falls to them which is gaining some momentum.
I also think Ivey's lack of shooting is overblown. He was more in line with Mathurin (who I really like) shooting this past season and being a gym rat, he will improve.

I don't believe the hype coming out that says OKC wants Ivey. Presti has never really operated that way so I can't see him starting now.
Banchero's playmaking skills are what would interest Presti and would fit very well with SGA/Giddey and I could see them taking Williams with #12 as their starting 5 or moving up with picks/players to grab Duren as the #1 option as they do need to package picks in this draft.
SGA/Dort/Giddey/Banchero/Duren is easily the best young core in the NBA.

So aside from the playmaking issue, who is Ivey going to guard? Do you want him guarding point guards

I think the write up from the Rockets SBnation says a lot https://www.thedreamshake.com/2022/6/5/23154327/the-case-for-and-against-jaden-ivey-houston-rockets-2022-nba-draft-paolo-banchero-chet-holmgren

Let’s go back to the BPA vs fit issue. In all reality, it’s a false dichotomy. There’s no scientific method for determining the “best” player available. If there were, every big board would be identical, and many draft analysts would be out of a job.

Perhaps in the inevitably dystopian future, computers will be able to predict a prospect’s professional career with 99 percent accuracy. Until then, draft analysis is largely a guessing game.

The best approach is to divide players into tiers, and select based on fit from that point. If Stone has Ivey in a wholly different tier from any of Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., or Paolo Banchero, he should be the Rockets’ guy.

That feels highly unlikely.

Let’s assume, for argument’s sake, that Stone has the top four prospects in a similar tier. It’s hard to make a case for Ivey’s fit under those conditions.

Paolo Banchero looks like the presumptive choice for Houston at the moment. For all of the debate about Ivey’s ability to run the point, Banchero is a certified point forward. Concerns about his defense and floor-spacing are fair, but his floor vision is unimpeachable.

If he's the Rockets’ primary initiator of the future, that makes Porter Jr.’s job much easier. He’ll be primarily responsible for spacing the floor and attacking closeouts rather than setting up the offense. With the addition of Banchero, Porter Jr. is more so “lining up at the one” rather than “playing point guard”.

I’ll save some space on Holmgren and Smith Jr. because most observers expect them to be off the board. If they’re not, they’re both more obvious fits on this roster than Ivey also.

[LightTheBeam]

Can someone give me the argument against Murray at #4? (or even trading down with Detroit to grab him?)

He's by far the most polished guy of the bunch (arguably the entire draft). Hes insanely efficient. Can score inside, outside, transition, half court. He blocks shots, he gets steals, hes got good size.

I get that he's older and will be 22 by time of the draft, what are the other knocks? On paper he seems like the perfect fit next to Sabonis/Fox/Barnes and can make an immediate impact.

[Silver Man]

Can someone give me the argument against Murray at #4? (or even trading down with Detroit to grab him?)

He's by far the most polished guy of the bunch (arguably the entire draft). Hes insanely efficient. Can score inside, outside, transition, half court. He blocks shots, he gets steals, hes got good size.

I get that he's older and will be 22 by time of the draft, what are the other knocks? On paper he seems like the perfect fit next to Sabonis/Fox/Barnes and can make an immediate impact.

I think people would just rather if Murray the pick move down a couple spots and grab an asset to go along with rather than just draft at 4.

[BoogieTime]

If they can't trade the pick for good win now talent and draft, I think it will be Murray. Safe for the win now franchise and fits. Most would like to trade down at least once for Murray, but thats a risk, if the trade down isnt Detroit. It might be a risk even if it is Detroit at 5. Is there another prospect other than Ivey that you feel safe going before Murray?

If they end up drafting instead of trading and its Murray, hopefully they can get something from the Pacers at 6 but its dodging fate to a degree (Monte would have to like at least two prospect near as much)

[City of Trees]

Can someone give me the argument against Murray at #4? (or even trading down with Detroit to grab him?)

He's by far the most polished guy of the bunch (arguably the entire draft). Hes insanely efficient. Can score inside, outside, transition, half court. He blocks shots, he gets steals, hes got good size.

I get that he's older and will be 22 by time of the draft, what are the other knocks? On paper he seems like the perfect fit next to Sabonis/Fox/Barnes and can make an immediate impact.

Against: Your team has been in the lottery for 16 straight seasons. Just a few years back your team passed on a generational talent because they deemed another player the better fit. With the franchise's history and current roster construct you don't possess the luxury of drafting for fit. Take BPA and shoot for a star.

[LightTheBeam]

Can someone give me the argument against Murray at #4? (or even trading down with Detroit to grab him?)

He's by far the most polished guy of the bunch (arguably the entire draft). Hes insanely efficient. Can score inside, outside, transition, half court. He blocks shots, he gets steals, hes got good size.

I get that he's older and will be 22 by time of the draft, what are the other knocks? On paper he seems like the perfect fit next to Sabonis/Fox/Barnes and can make an immediate impact.

Against: Your team has been in the lottery for 16 straight seasons. Just a few years back your team passed on a generational talent because they deemed another player the better fit. With the franchise's history and current roster construct you don't possess the luxury of drafting for fit. Take BPA and shoot for a star.

So I guess this is the issue I'm having. Who is to say that Murray isn't BPA?

From what I've read/seen of Ivey there's a lot of question marks. Not a great defender, not a primary ball handler, not a great shooter. So what exactly makes him BPA? He is fast and athletic?

I'm pretty much all the way out on Sharpe. Too much of a mystery for me. From what I've seen the tiers seem to be

Tier 1 - Smith, Chet, Banchero
Tier 2 - Ivey, Sharpe, Murray

Maybe an argument that Daniels has elevated to Tier 2 status? But now days its hard to imagine guys like him becoming a star when they are bad shooters.

[LightTheBeam]

Can someone give me the argument against Murray at #4? (or even trading down with Detroit to grab him?)

He's by far the most polished guy of the bunch (arguably the entire draft). Hes insanely efficient. Can score inside, outside, transition, half court. He blocks shots, he gets steals, hes got good size.

I get that he's older and will be 22 by time of the draft, what are the other knocks? On paper he seems like the perfect fit next to Sabonis/Fox/Barnes and can make an immediate impact.

I think people would just rather if Murray the pick move down a couple spots and grab an asset to go along with rather than just draft at 4.

This is fine. I think it makes sense with Detroit, but the more I look the more I think Indiana would probably prefer Murray themselves. Hali - Brogdan - Duarte - Murray - Turner.

Its a league dominated by 3/4s. I think I'm all the way in on Murray, if we can get something additional that would be even better

[OxAndFox]

Who is playing point guard between Ivey and Green? Do you believe Ivey is a point guard?

I feel these ideas of someone really liking Ivey are coming from someone really hopeful on one of the consensus three

Is Ivey a SG in how he isnt a playmaker and who he will defend, and who needs a SG in the top 3?

I think Ivey can be a combo guard. It's a very good question about playmaking and defense though.
No doubt he needs to work on a lot of areas (defense mainly), however, his star potential is clear and that might be what the Rockets want next to Green.
Kevin Porter Jr played the PG position for the Rockets and Ivey would do the same, eventually. KPJ actually had a higher usage than Green last year, but I would say the Rockets would switch that up and some this coming season.
The reason I wouldn't count KPJ as a long-term piece is he is one moment away from ending his career. He can't be trusted, is in a contract year and I wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets look to cash in on him. He would be able to start with Ivey coming off the bench until they found a buyer.
It's a guard/wing driven league and Ivey is the best player available to them unless, of course, Chet falls to them which is gaining some momentum.
I also think Ivey's lack of shooting is overblown. He was more in line with Mathurin (who I really like) shooting this past season and being a gym rat, he will improve.

I don't believe the hype coming out that says OKC wants Ivey. Presti has never really operated that way so I can't see him starting now.
Banchero's playmaking skills are what would interest Presti and would fit very well with SGA/Giddey and I could see them taking Williams with #12 as their starting 5 or moving up with picks/players to grab Duren as the #1 option as they do need to package picks in this draft.
SGA/Dort/Giddey/Banchero/Duren is easily the best young core in the NBA.

So aside from the playmaking issue, who is Ivey going to guard? Do you want him guarding point guards

I think the write up from the Rockets SBnation says a lot https://www.thedreamshake.com/2022/6/5/23154327/the-case-for-and-against-jaden-ivey-houston-rockets-2022-nba-draft-paolo-banchero-chet-holmgren

Let’s go back to the BPA vs fit issue. In all reality, it’s a false dichotomy. There’s no scientific method for determining the “best” player available. If there were, every big board would be identical, and many draft analysts would be out of a job.

Perhaps in the inevitably dystopian future, computers will be able to predict a prospect’s professional career with 99 percent accuracy. Until then, draft analysis is largely a guessing game.

The best approach is to divide players into tiers, and select based on fit from that point. If Stone has Ivey in a wholly different tier from any of Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., or Paolo Banchero, he should be the Rockets’ guy.

That feels highly unlikely.

Let’s assume, for argument’s sake, that Stone has the top four prospects in a similar tier. It’s hard to make a case for Ivey’s fit under those conditions.

Paolo Banchero looks like the presumptive choice for Houston at the moment. For all of the debate about Ivey’s ability to run the point, Banchero is a certified point forward. Concerns about his defense and floor-spacing are fair, but his floor vision is unimpeachable.

If he's the Rockets’ primary initiator of the future, that makes Porter Jr.’s job much easier. He’ll be primarily responsible for spacing the floor and attacking closeouts rather than setting up the offense. With the addition of Banchero, Porter Jr. is more so “lining up at the one” rather than “playing point guard”.

I’ll save some space on Holmgren and Smith Jr. because most observers expect them to be off the board. If they’re not, they’re both more obvious fits on this roster than Ivey also.

KPJ is arguably a worse defender than Ivey so if they're fine with the former, they won't have a problem with drafting Ivey. It really comes down to if they view KPJ as part of the young core going forward or will they cash in on him. If they have any hesitation on this, the fit of Ivey is actually a good one to pair with Green.

[OxAndFox]

I will add to Ivey, that he was a better defender in his freshman year so perhaps it was important for them to focus on his offense?
I am just guessing on that so the interviews with these guys, their coaches etc will be extremely important. He was also playing 31mpg this past season.
Here in Sac he wouldn't have the burden of carrying the offense like he did at Purdue.

[City of Trees]

Can someone give me the argument against Murray at #4? (or even trading down with Detroit to grab him?)

He's by far the most polished guy of the bunch (arguably the entire draft). Hes insanely efficient. Can score inside, outside, transition, half court. He blocks shots, he gets steals, hes got good size.

I get that he's older and will be 22 by time of the draft, what are the other knocks? On paper he seems like the perfect fit next to Sabonis/Fox/Barnes and can make an immediate impact.

Against: Your team has been in the lottery for 16 straight seasons. Just a few years back your team passed on a generational talent because they deemed another player the better fit. With the franchise's history and current roster construct you don't possess the luxury of drafting for fit. Take BPA and shoot for a star.

So I guess this is the issue I'm having. Who is to say that Murray isn't BPA?

From what I've read/seen of Ivey there's a lot of question marks. Not a great defender, not a primary ball handler, not a great shooter. So what exactly makes him BPA? He is fast and athletic?

I'm pretty much all the way out on Sharpe. Too much of a mystery for me. From what I've seen the tiers seem to be

Tier 1 - Smith, Chet, Banchero
Tier 2 - Ivey, Sharpe, Murray

Maybe an argument that Daniels has elevated to Tier 2 status? But now days its hard to imagine guys like him becoming a star when they are bad shooters.

BPA in the top 5 leans heavily on player projection/potential. Who will player X be in four years? Most scouts give Ivey the nod over Murray in that department because of age, athleticism, and style of play, and how much room Ivey has to grow.

I like Murray as a player and think he fits best with what the team needs. No complaints from me if he is the pick. But if the Kings are going to pass on higher potential I'd like to see them recoup that value in a trade back.

[City of Trees]

Anyone else been faked out by Kris Murray?

[City of Trees]

I always wondered why such a talented player like Eason only came off the bench. The Draft board has a podcast link referencing multiple teams leaking Eason bombed their workouts. Rumor has it he's a low IQ player who possibly had issues learning the plays. Normally, at this time of year you take these rumors with a grain of salt, however Eason's path and not starting leaves me buying the rumor. All-world talent but might lack the necessary IQ to put it together. High risk -high reward lotto pick. Eason could slide on draft night.

FWIW Scottie Barnes used to come off the bench at Florida State.

Good call out.

When Im watching Eason game tape everything in me screams he belongs in the second tier of this years prospects. I mean watch his tape and explain why Eason isn't challenging Murray and Sharpe in the mock drafts. You referenced Scottie Barnes, maybe we see Eason go 4th or 5th this year like Barnes did? His feel for the game looks sharp, I know his offense has a ways to go but it would appear something is there. Maybe these rumors are mid 1st teams praying he falls to them?