Ask Jeff Risdon a question thread

Bucksfans1and2 · Post #101 » by **Bucksfans1and2** » Thu Apr 7, 2011 1:09 pm

I'd love to see

Carolina: Newton
Buffalo: Gabbert
Minnesota: Mallet
Miami: Ponder
Seattle: Locker

That would mean a lot of talent falls to the Packers at 32

Post #102 » by **Icness** » Thu Apr 7, 2011 1:23 pm

Mike Hunt wrote:Really appreciate the opinions. It's hard not to get wrapped up in the QB info floating around. It seems more teams have issues at that position right now than I can ever remember (at least in recent years, that is)

Here's another question, if you don't mind: Do you expect there to be some "overdrafting" of TEs because of the weakness of the talent pool? This looks to be one of the weakest TE classes ever. I'm wondering: A) How would you rate this class of TEs (do you agree with the general assessment that it's quite weak?), B) Would it surprise you to see guys picked a round or two ahead of where you would project them based on the obvious supply and demand scenario that could play out (assuming your answer to #1 is some variant oof "yes"), and C) If so, which TE who was rated lower on your list would you not be surprised to see get picked earlier than he probably should be?

Thanks

I don't have a grade above 3rd round on any TE, and my top guy is DJ Williams who I see as much as a Chris Cooley-like H-back more than a traditional TE. And the more I watch him, the less I like him.

Kyle Rudolph is a talented guy but the hamstring injury gives me serious concern. It was not a standard injury; he ripped the ligament from the bone and it split some of the bone off. When that happened to my dog, we put him to sleep because he'd never walk without a limp again and could never run. I'll believe he's good to go when I see it. He will go in the 2nd round but I wouldn't take him in the top 75. I have much less faith in him than Rob Gronkowski a year ago.

Lance Kendricks is probably going to go in the top 60, which is inexplicable to me. Not a bad player, but he's much more of an oversized WR wtih poor speed than a tight end. IMO he and Niles Paul (Nebraska WR) are essentially the same guy other than Kendricks weighing about 15 pounds heavier, and Paul will be lucky to go before the late 4th. I like Rob Housler much more, he's my 1B TE.

One guy I like that is moving up is Virgil Green from Nevada. I still wouldn't take him before the 3rd round but he's got excellent speed and hands. He's an unpolished gem a la Jimmy Graham last year, though Graham is a more natural receiver. I can see him sneaking into the bottom of the 2nd round. I like what I've seen of Jordan Cameron on the workout circuit but his experience makes Cam Newton seem like a greybeard. I like him in the 5th but he could be long gone by then if someone thinks he's ready.

Post #103 » by **Icness** » Thu Apr 7, 2011 7:05 pm

For those of you who would like a deeper glimpse into life inside a draft room, I spent the past three drafts building something very similar to this for a team:
http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/0 ... ue-chart-4

I'm not doing it this year but I actually have a homemade version of it on my PC in spreadsheet form, helps me keep track of things on mock drafts.

The team I worked with color coded the selections: black were certain, blue were likely, orange were variable. The more black, the better.

Off of this master chart, we concocted hundreds of draft scenarios. Not necessarily full mocks but more like clusters of picks, or "what if there's a run on X position" or figuring out who would trade up for whom and how that would impact the subsequent picks.

I'm not sold that everything on PFW's chart there is quite right, but I think it's pretty strong. Between that and Gil Brandt's Hot 100 groupings on NFL.com, which he breaks into groups of 10, that's yoru best resources for formulating fairly accurate mock drafts. I forget the stat but Gil correctly nails 9 out of 10 picks in a group range something like 85% of the time over the last 5 drafts. Ignore it at your peril. I shamelessly cop to being a disciple and both GMs I've worked with pay great attention to it as well.

TSE · Post #104 » by **TSE** » Thu Apr 7, 2011 9:59 pm

Bucksfans1and2 wrote:I'd love to see

Carolina: Newton
Buffalo: Gabbert
Minnesota: Mallet
Miami: Ponder
Seattle: Locker

That would mean a lot of talent falls to the Packers at 32

Maybe Mallett and Locker will end up getting picked in the top 12; lots of teams that need a quarterback.

Bucksfans1and2 · Post #105 » by **Bucksfans1and2** » Thu Apr 7, 2011 10:30 pm

Icness wrote:
Mike Hunt wrote:Really appreciate the opinions. It's hard not to get wrapped up in the QB info floating around. It seems more teams have issues at that position right now than I can ever remember (at least in recent years, that is)

Here's another question, if you don't mind: Do you expect there to be some "overdrafting" of TEs because of the weakness of the talent pool? This looks to be one of the weakest TE classes ever. I'm wondering: A) How would you rate this class of TEs (do you agree with the general assessment that it's quite weak?), B) Would it surprise you to see guys picked a round or two ahead of where you would project them based on the obvious supply and demand scenario that could play out (assuming your answer to #1 is some variant oof "yes"), and C) If so, which TE who was rated lower on your list would you not be surprised to see get picked earlier than he probably should be?

Thanks

I don't have a grade above 3rd round on any TE, and my top guy is DJ Williams who I see as much as a Chris Cooley-like H-back more than a traditional TE. And the more I watch him, the less I like him.

Kyle Rudolph is a talented guy but the hamstring injury gives me serious concern. It was not a standard injury; he ripped the ligament from the bone and it split some of the bone off. When that happened to my dog, we put him to sleep because he'd never walk without a limp again and could never run. I'll believe he's good to go when I see it. He will go in the 2nd round but I wouldn't take him in the top 75. I have much less faith in him than Rob Gronkowski a year ago.

Lance Kendricks is probably going to go in the top 60, which is inexplicable to me. Not a bad player, but he's much more of an oversized WR wtih poor speed than a tight end. IMO he and Niles Paul (Nebraska WR) are essentially the same guy other than Kendricks weighing about 15 pounds heavier, and Paul will be lucky to go before the late 4th. I like Rob Housler much more, he's my 1B TE.

One guy I like that is moving up is Virgil Green from Nevada. I still wouldn't take him before the 3rd round but he's got excellent speed and hands. He's an unpolished gem a la Jimmy Graham last year, though Graham is a more natural receiver. I can see him sneaking into the bottom of the 2nd round. I like what I've seen of Jordan Cameron on the workout circuit but his experience makes Cam Newton seem like a greybeard. I like him in the 5th but he could be long gone by then if someone thinks he's ready.

There are times when Kendricks looks like he can really block, and then there are times where it's almost embarassing.

There are some good ones in this video at, 2:14
2:37
2:42
3:22
3:51
6:08
6:21
7:17
8:20

but it's dissapointing how many blocks he doesn't finish. Obviously he's a TE and not a Tackle, and most NFL teams just hope that their TE's step in front of somebody but he shows he could be really good.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnxQ2NIxPfw[/youtube]

Post #106 » by **Icness** » Fri Apr 8, 2011 7:52 pm

I'm not all that concerned with Kendricks' blocking; he's functional. What gets me is he's a guy that isn't real fast, isn't real quick, isn't real physical. I want players in the first two rounds that offer me something that I can't get elsewhere and he doesn't do any one thing great. Housler can't block me but he can stretch the seam and he's got body control while moving that Kendricks only dreams about. Jermaine Gresham wasn't faster but he was a freaking bull and a huge target.

All of the good split-out TEs (Witten, Clark, V. Davis, Olsen, Heap before the injuries) either have great initial burst or exceptional feet when running their routes to get separation. Kendricks doesn't have either; he's good with both but not great. He's not strong enough or physical enough to be an in-line guy like Pettigrew or pre-injury Shockey or M. Lewis last year, a guy that can stay in and block or run routes and get open on any given play; defenses won't repsect his blocking like they have to for those guys.

Bucksfans1and2 · Post #107 » by **Bucksfans1and2** » Fri Apr 8, 2011 11:46 pm

Icness wrote:I'm not all that concerned with Kendricks' blocking; he's functional. What gets me is he's a guy that isn't real fast, isn't real quick, isn't real physical. I want players in the first two rounds that offer me something that I can't get elsewhere and he doesn't do any one thing great. Housler can't block me but he can stretch the seam and he's got body control while moving that Kendricks only dreams about. Jermaine Gresham wasn't faster but he was a freaking bull and a huge target. <BR itxtNodeId="766"><BR itxtNodeId="765">All of the good split-out TEs (Witten, Clark, V. Davis, Olsen, Heap before the injuries) either have great initial burst or exceptional feet when running their routes to get separation. Kendricks doesn't have either; he's good with both but not great. He's not strong enough or physical enough to be an in-line guy like Pettigrew or pre-injury Shockey or M. Lewis last year, a guy that can stay in and block or run routes and get open on any given play; defenses won't repsect his blocking like they have to for those guys.

I agree with you on that. If the Packers didn't have Finley I'd be fine with taking him in the 4th round, but I'm not seeing him as a top 50 talent.

Of the Badgers I think that Watt, Kendricks, and Tolzien are predicted to go too early, and I think that Carimi and Moffit are going too low.

Turk Nowitzki · Post #108 » by **Turk Nowitzki** » Sat Apr 9, 2011 1:44 am

How is Tolzien predicted to go too early? I didn't know he was predicted to get drafted at all.

RiotPunch · Post #109 » by **RiotPunch** » Sat Apr 9, 2011 4:09 am

I have seen Tolzien listed as a late 6th/7th round prospect. No way in hell is Watt projected to go too high. He deserves to be in the top 10 and I have seen him anywhere from 8 to 22. He is a freak of nature with picture perfect measurables. Kendricks as a 3rd or 4th rounder seems pretty accurate from a value standpoint as well.

Bucksfans1and2 · Post #110 » by **Bucksfans1and2** » Mon Apr 11, 2011 3:50 am

Where do you see Marcus Gilbert going?

Also, if you think Ryan Mallet is a statue in the pocket, you haven't seen Scott Tolzien.

RiotPunch · Post #111 » by **RiotPunch** » Mon Apr 11, 2011 4:57 pm

Bucksfans1and2 wrote:Also, if you think Ryan Mallet is a statue in the pocket, you haven't seen Scott Tolzien.

Obviously you haven't seen Scott Tolzien play. He definitely has above average mobility. My 4 year old nephew could beat Mallett in a footrace.

94feet · Post #112 » by **94feet** » Mon Apr 11, 2011 5:21 pm

Jeff,

It was mentioned on the wiretap the other day that the Colts and Polian is looking for Peyton's successor in this year's draft. Which QB's would they be looking at? Personally I would be looking at Dalton for the Colts system. What are your thoughts?

Post #113 » by **Icness** » Mon Apr 11, 2011 6:00 pm

Bucksfans1and2 wrote:Where do you see Marcus Gilbert going?

Also, if you think Ryan Mallet is a statue in the pocket, you haven't seen Scott Tolzien.

I think Gilbert is going in the 60-75 range, probably closer to 75 than 60.

Tolzien can run a little, it just takes him a couple steps to get started. He certainly lacks lateral agility, but it's still better than Mallett's. Mallett has the excuse of being about 5" taller and 35 pounds heavier though. I'm not sure Tolzien's waist is much above Mallett's knees :lol:

Post #114 » by **Icness** » Mon Apr 11, 2011 6:04 pm

94feet wrote:Jeff,

It was mentioned on the wiretap the other day that the Colts and Polian is looking for Peyton's successor in this year's draft. Which QB's would they be looking at? Personally I would be looking at Dalton for the Colts system. What are your thoughts?

Dalton fits with the headiness and guts, but his lack of downfield arm strength is a real problem for their current offense. IMO the thing that Manning does better than anyone ever has is throw the 15 to 30 yard passes with absolute perfect accuracy at high velocity. Dalton can come close to the accuracy but can't touch the velocity on those balls.

I'd like to see them take Ricky Stanzi at the bottom of Round 2. I think he fits well--better than Painter or Sorgi have as Peyton's understudies. Christian Ponder would work too.

Post #115 » by **PhilipNelsonFan** » Tue Apr 12, 2011 10:23 pm

In all this quarterback talk, is there still a chance that a team drafts Mike Coughlin? According to Don Banks of SI he's still a prospect.

And who are you leaning toward as Mr. Irrelevant?

Post #116 » by **studcrackers** » Tue Apr 12, 2011 10:29 pm

what in the hell are you doing here? i thought you were dead

Post #117 » by **Icness** » Wed Apr 13, 2011 12:34 pm

PhilipNelsonFan wrote:In all this quarterback talk, is there still a chance that a team drafts Mike Coughlin? According to Don Banks of SI he's still a prospect.

And who are you leaning toward as Mr. Irrelevant?

I can't see any team but the Patriots drafting Boise State's backup QB. I'd like to say more about him bu he never freaking played so I can't honestly evaluate him.

The Texans have the last pick and I've been paying pretty close attention to the lower-rung fruit they keep bringing to town. My top two guesses right now are Byron Maxwell, CB, Clemson and Eric Gordon, LB, Michigan State.

asdf1223 · Post #118 » by **asdf1223** » Thu Apr 14, 2011 2:23 am

Ic,
Is the reports that Marcus Cannon is suffering from Testicular Cancer true?

Turk Nowitzki · Post #119 » by **Turk Nowitzki** » Thu Apr 14, 2011 3:21 am

asdf1223 wrote:Ic,
Is the reports that Marcus Cannon is suffering from Testicular Cancer true?

Post #120 » by **Icness** » Thu Apr 14, 2011 1:12 pm

asdf1223 wrote:Ic,
Is the reports that Marcus Cannon is suffering from Testicular Cancer true?

It got confirmed this morning from his training facility. Terrible news for him, but apparently they caught it early and he has a very strong chance of full recovery. He's in very good physical condition (he squatted 940 last month) and that should really help. Hard to say what it does for his draft status but it's gotta be dropping. You can't really work out while undergoing treatment. Maybe 5th-6th round? I had him late 2nd/early 3rd.

Lance Armstrong came back just fine. I played vball in college with a guy who lost a testicle to cancer. He missed a season and came back actually better because he was more dedicated to being in optimum shape, which apparently happens with cancer survivors quite a bit. I hope that's the case for Cannon.