Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Amazin

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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#101 » by Import » Fri Jun 10, 2011 4:40 am

funkatron101 wrote:I fully expect some struggles in the first couple of years. I just don't understand why people are caught up in his size.


Exactly. It takes Euros a couple of years to adjust to the league anyway.

Can't wait to see Ricky Rubio play!
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#102 » by jinxed » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:02 am

Tsherkin wrote..
EDIT: It occurs to me that my right may be misplaced, as you were responding to the size-in-comparison-to-Aaron-Brooks issue and the notion that Rubio doesn't have a strong base. Oops. Yeah, his basic physical dimensions aren't the problem, there are lots of guards who don't have a huge powerful frame. Yeah, he's not going to be Chauncey Billups or Jason Kidd in year one, but his size isn't an issue, it's an advantage for sure. It's the pedestrian athletic talent and his weak shooting ability that will be the issue, not his size.


I agree with a lot of what you said..especially regarding his shooting..it needs improvement, especially his MID-RANGE game and finishing at the rim. 3 point shooting he was great two years ago..he shot 42% in the ACB, and in 2010 he shot a respectable 36%...this year...EEK...

I'm not sure why you think he's a pedestrian athlete..no he's not world class explosive like Dwyane Wade..not even close..but he's got great stamina..I've never seen him tired..although i've never seen him play 40 minutes he either..and I wouldn't see him as a weak athlete ..he has good coordination..he dunks very easily..I would say AVERAGE nba athlete..
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1ZNvI-oyB0[/youtube]


Yet despite his shooting which needs improvement..his average NBA athleticism..He is still the BEST offensive player in Europe..

How is this the case?...well..he has an off the charts basketball IQ. He knows how to run an offense..run a pick and roll..he knows how to get the ball to the guy who's hot. He knows when to shoot, when not to shoot. He knows when to push the fast break, when to slow it up..he knows hot to run a play, take care of the shot clock etc...etc..

He's also a very good defender. Even against NBA talent..in three games against team USA he has 10 steals..in about 60 minutes...so that's 6 steals per 36..
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#103 » by Apollo64 » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:13 am

jinxed wrote:Tsherkin wrote..


Yet despite his shooting which needs improvement..his average NBA athleticism..He is still the BEST offensive player in Europe..
How is this the case?...well..he has an off the charts basketball IQ. He knows how to run an offense..run a pick and roll..he knows how to get the ball to the guy who's hot. He knows when to shoot, when not to shoot. He knows when to push the fast break, when to slow it up..he knows hot to run a play, take care of the shot clock etc...etc..

He's also a very good defender. Even against NBA talent..in three games against team USA he has 10 steals..in about 60 minutes...so that's 6 steals per 36..


Can a mod please ban this guy? He is either nuts or trolling for laughs.
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#104 » by Shamizy » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:14 am

tsherkin wrote:
Yes, but...

Nash is one of the best shooters in NBA history. Not just as a set shooter, either, but off the dribble and on creative shots in the mid-range area while off-balance and contested.

Rubio, to be polite, is not a very good shooter and certainly not compensating for his comparatively weak athleticism with his perimeter game. He's a threat to pass, certainly, but he's got to be a threat to score before that really means all that much. He was perfectly HORRIBLE as a scoring threat in the Euroleague this year, something that's been consistently true.

So discussing him in comparison to Nash doesn't make sense, even if you're only trying to discuss size. Nash has a trump card, something that helps compensate for the fact that he's not an explosive athlete. He's got one of the best basketball IQs in the business, is arguably the best pick-and-roll guard in the last 20 years and he's one of the best shooters the league has ever seen.

Rubio has talent and potential, but he's going to have a rather large hurdle to overcome. Even Jason Kidd had a reasonably reliable shot out to 20-22 feet, which Rubio does not, and he had a post game that Rubio does not. Like Kidd, Rubio doesn't finish especially well under the arc and he isn't an explosive athlete (although in his day, Kidd was perhaps the quickest player end to end with the ball in his hands apart from Iverson).

He's going to struggle. I picture a fair number of turnovers and fouls and an exceedingly low scoring efficiency. He's going to have moments where his passing shines through and he's going to adjust and adapt with time, but he's not going to be a wildly effective player as a rookie.

EDIT: It occurs to me that my right may be misplaced, as you were responding to the size-in-comparison-to-Aaron-Brooks issue and the notion that Rubio doesn't have a strong base. Oops. Yeah, his basic physical dimensions aren't the problem, there are lots of guards who don't have a huge powerful frame. Yeah, he's not going to be Chauncey Billups or Jason Kidd in year one, but his size isn't an issue, it's an advantage for sure. It's the pedestrian athletic talent and his weak shooting ability that will be the issue, not his size.


Fantastic post. My thoughts exactly. When people throw out those comparison to Pistol Pete and Steve Nash that were rampant 3 years ago, they always seem to overlook the fact that Rubio is not a shooter. He can't shoot the basketball. That's what made each of those players so damn effective; they could either kill you with their own offense or creating for everyone else.

Rubio's going to need a ton of work on his jumper before becoming half-decent in the league. Without blinding quickness, great athleticism, or a strong body at his disposal, he's definitely at a disadvantage coming in.
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#105 » by jinxed » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:34 am

Apollo64 wrote:
jinxed wrote:Tsherkin wrote..


Yet despite his shooting which needs improvement..his average NBA athleticism..He is still the BEST offensive player in Europe..
How is this the case?...well..he has an off the charts basketball IQ. He knows how to run an offense..run a pick and roll..he knows how to get the ball to the guy who's hot. He knows when to shoot, when not to shoot. He knows when to push the fast break, when to slow it up..he knows hot to run a play, take care of the shot clock etc...etc..

He's also a very good defender. Even against NBA talent..in three games against team USA he has 10 steals..in about 60 minutes...so that's 6 steals per 36..


Can a mod please ban this guy? He is either nuts or trolling for laughs.



He has the best offensive adj plus/minus in the Euroleague...I.E the best offensive player in Europe over the last two years.

Go read the OP
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#106 » by Apollo64 » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:36 am

Here is the most likely scenario for Rubio in the NBA:

He will struggle a lot in the first couple of years, as most internationals do.

He won't ever be an All-Star level PG.

He won't compensate for his lack of shooting, so he'll probably end up as a serviceable back-up point guard bringing a lot of intangibles.

His stock won't be much in the NBA, so at some point he'll likely opt to return to Europe.

And, if this is any comfort to Minnesota fans, he'll be at least better than Sergio Rodriguez.
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#107 » by Apollo64 » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:46 am

jinxed wrote:
Apollo64 wrote:
jinxed wrote:Tsherkin wrote..


Yet despite his shooting which needs improvement..his average NBA athleticism..He is still the BEST offensive player in Europe..
How is this the case?...well..he has an off the charts basketball IQ. He knows how to run an offense..run a pick and roll..he knows how to get the ball to the guy who's hot. He knows when to shoot, when not to shoot. He knows when to push the fast break, when to slow it up..he knows hot to run a play, take care of the shot clock etc...etc..

He's also a very good defender. Even against NBA talent..in three games against team USA he has 10 steals..in about 60 minutes...so that's 6 steals per 36..


Can a mod please ban this guy? He is either nuts or trolling for laughs.



He has the best offensive adj plus/minus in the Euroleague...I.E the best offensive player in Europe over the last two years.

Go read the OP



The stat is worthless.

Have you even watched Rubio play in this season?
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#108 » by jinxed » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:59 am

Apollo64 wrote:[



The stat is worthless.

Have you even watched Rubio play in this season?


Well the stat must be worthless if it goes against what you think...of course NBA teams disagree and about half of all teams..including quality teams like..Miami, Dallas, OKC, Memphis each who pay statisticians over 6 figures a yeas to calculate that stat for them...So while it may be worthless to you(someone who i would bet 6 figures could not tell me what the stat even means.it certainly IS WORTH IT to the best teams in the world.

And yeah..I've probably seen about 75% of Rubio's games over the last three years. In Euroleague, ACB and NT duties..Over 100 games.
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#109 » by BadWolf » Fri Jun 10, 2011 9:22 am

8 Mile Ilic wrote:
BubbaTee wrote:
Johnny Firpo wrote:I know one thing, the Wolves will win more games with him, than without him. He will be an impactful quality starting PG at the very least. He may shoot 38% percent from the floor, but he won't hurt his team much with it. That's how great a passer he is. He has one elite skill, and that happens to be the most important one when it comes to a point guard. He won't be a bust, just no way.


Even if his offense is horrible he's still a better defender than Ridnour or Flynn. Though he might struggle at first in adjusting to the "breathe on him and it's a foul" rules the NBA has regarding perimeter defense. Once he gets a feel for the rules, he should be MIN's best perimeter defender.


In that case Minnesota better start planning for the 2012 draft lottery. :-?




they don't have to ;)
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#110 » by BadWolf » Fri Jun 10, 2011 9:37 am

jinxed wrote:
2) NEVER use just one year's data. Adjusted plus/minus NEEDS a lot of data to lower the error rate. At least two is the general rule of thumb. The euroleague stats are over the last two years. Three years is optimal.




You're using 40 games for Rubio and want to use at least 160 for NBA players to make it comparable?

Rubio was very unimpressive in Europe this year.
Why? We'll see, some say he tanked the season to get an easier buyout (is that even true?), some say he regressed, that european basketball isn't suited to his strengths...
I watched him less then 10 times this year, and he didn't stand out with anything in any of those games. I'd be surprised if he gets an all star ever, but could be servicable, kinda Sergio Rodriguez style - didn't he have an amazing control of the game too?
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#111 » by tsherkin » Fri Jun 10, 2011 11:02 am

jinxed wrote:I'm not sure why you think he's a pedestrian athlete..no he's not world class explosive like Dwyane Wade..not even close..but he's got great stamina..I've never seen him tired..although i've never seen him play 40 minutes he either..and I wouldn't see him as a weak athlete ..he has good coordination..he dunks very easily..I would say AVERAGE nba athlete..


I wouldn't say average because his lateral quickness and leaping ability are so unimpressive. Athleticism isn't an advantage to him, it's a hindrance, and that makes him below average. Athletically, he has more in common with JJ Redick than a lot of other guys, though by my eye he isn't stump-armed like Redick. His stamina is tough to evaluate; he plays a limited number of games and not a lot of minutes... and he doesn't play at a pace that's similar to the NBA. Having said that, lots of Euroleague guys end up not having an issue in that respect in the NBA, so I'm not going to worry about it.

I'm encouraged by his basketball IQ and his court vision. His FT shooting makes me think he's got the foundations for a decent jumper. But he's going to hit the rookie wall something fierce, because he's never really played more than 25 minutes per game over the course of a season or a tournament or anything, and he's not even approached 82 games in a season. That's an issue for anyone, of course, not specifically him.

Love his passing, I really do. He's a bit too flashy with the dribble and that will cause problems if he does it too much in the league, but he's got a pretty tight handle and that will help him. It's part of what makes Steve Nash so special, a rather underappreciated element of his game actually, so that's encouraging. But right now, you know who that sounds a lot like?

Jason Williams.

White Chocolate was a pretty good player once Hubie got a hold of him (especially since Brown got him playing defense) but he struggled his whole career with inefficiency on offense and it really limited him, crafted a glass ceiling for him. Now, Rubio's larger by about 3 inches and as a FT shooter has more in common with Memphis J-Will than Sacramento Williams, so maybe he'll parlay that size into some more success finishing around the rim. Not sure. More important will be the 20-footer, because Kidd made a whole career out of sucking at the rim and being tepid beyond the arc but being able to stick shots around the FT line and out of the PnR, so maybe Rubio can do that too.

Another point to consider is the spacing in the NBA; less zone defense will definitely help Rubio, as will the three-point line, more room to run the PnR. It's a shame he's going to Minnesota (sorry Wolves fans!) because he'd be a lot better off with a competent coach and a more compelling defensive cast.

Ah well, we shall see. He won't suck, that's for sure. He's going to look ugly as a scorer and I don't think February will treat him kindly but his passing will show through and if his defensive effectiveness translates from the Euroleague even a little, that'll make him valuable enough to watch closely and see if he figures out the jumper.
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#112 » by kd35sneighbor » Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:41 pm

All this talk about how inefficient he will be on the offensive end based on his stats and limited play in Europe is rubbish. I think he has more offensive game than most of us realize.

Tony Parker ain't that great of a shooter and he's doing well. But he's a great finisher at the rim? Sure, but Rubio is no slouch in that regard, and you can't judge him off how he did in Europe anyway.
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#113 » by jinxed » Fri Jun 10, 2011 3:43 pm

tsherkin wrote:I wouldn't say average because his lateral quickness and leaping ability are so unimpressive. Athleticism isn't an advantage to him, it's a hindrance, and that makes him below average. Athletically, he has more in common with JJ Redick than a lot of other guys, though by my eye he isn't stump-armed like Redick. His stamina is tough to evaluate; he plays a limited number of games and not a lot of minutes... and he doesn't play at a pace that's similar to the NBA. Having said that, lots of Euroleague guys end up not having an issue in that respect in the NBA, so I'm not going to worry about it.
.


Most of your post is well though out, I appreciate that. But I'd like to point out something that at first seems so contrarian to common sense, until you think about it for a while...and then you get it.

J.J Redick is the best athlete on the Orlando Magic.

What? That's crazy..isn't he on the same team as Dwight Howard?

Yep. But J.J still is.

Every year before training camp the Magic have a competition called the "Iron Magic" to see who the best athlete is on the team. It's a competition comprising of 8 different events..including bench press, 3 minute run, vertical leap, sprints, and agility drills.

In 2009 J.J Redick won the competition. In 2010 Gortat did, but he's no longer on the team..so J.J remains the incumbent champion.

We need to stop thinking people are unathletic because they have white skin..
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#114 » by jinxed » Fri Jun 10, 2011 3:46 pm

BadWolf wrote:

You're using 40 games for Rubio and want to use at least 160 for NBA players to make it comparable?



His ACB RAPM matches his Euroleague..so that's another 45 games for two years from their..so thats 90 ACB games, plus 42 euroleague games = 132 games and since he plays about half the game, it makes the math much easier. You need multiple seasons for guys like Dwight, because they play so many minutes and rarely come out.
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#115 » by doctorfunk » Fri Jun 10, 2011 4:09 pm

jinxed wrote:J.J Redick is the best athlete on the Orlando Magic.

What? That's crazy..isn't he on the same team as Dwight Howard?

Yep. But J.J still is.

Every year before training camp the Magic have a competition called the "Iron Magic" to see who the best athlete is on the team. It's a competition comprising of 8 different events..including bench press, 3 minute run, vertical leap, sprints, and agility drills.

In 2009 J.J Redick won the competition. In 2010 Gortat did, but he's no longer on the team..so J.J remains the incumbent champion.

We need to stop thinking people are unathletic because they have white skin..


nice didn't know that, but that's what happens when yo do those gay layups instead of dunking like a man!
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#116 » by Klomp » Fri Jun 10, 2011 4:39 pm

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKAd6qxvexk[/youtube]

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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#117 » by IvgenyIAS » Fri Jun 10, 2011 4:52 pm

I wasn't impressed by him this season. Granted, I only saw him twice this year but in both games it seemed like the opposing team had an easier time on defense whenever Rubio was on the floor. His defender didn't bother guarding him and just roamed around freely helping Navarro's and Anderson's men. He shot the ball extremely bad, especially considering the fact that he was wide open on all of his shots. Also, he has a tendency to always look for a pass to the trailing big man whenever he drives to the basket, in the games I saw the opposing team denied him those passes which resulted in a couple of turnovers.

I will say this though - he has good hands and is a very good passer. I think he can be effective in a team oriented offense which relies heavily on off the ball movement.
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#118 » by tsherkin » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:12 pm

jinxed wrote:J.J Redick is the best athlete on the Orlando Magic.

What? That's crazy..isn't he on the same team as Dwight Howard?

Yep. But J.J still is.

Every year before training camp the Magic have a competition called the "Iron Magic" to see who the best athlete is on the team. It's a competition comprising of 8 different events..including bench press, 3 minute run, vertical leap, sprints, and agility drills.

In 2009 J.J Redick won the competition. In 2010 Gortat did, but he's no longer on the team..so J.J remains the incumbent champion.

We need to stop thinking people are unathletic because they have white skin..


Nevertheless, athleticism outside of the scope of basketball activities is irrelevant. He's a good overall athlerte but it doesn't translate on the court. This is specifically related to the fact that he's slow laterally, doesn't accelerate well and has short arms. His physical tools are below average for the NBA. The competition you described favors stamina and non-basketball strength. His bench presses mean nothing when he gets pushed around and posted by small guards and such. His sprints mean little when he gets beat end to end and blown past in face-up isos. He's a good athlete by our standards but not in the context of basketball.

More particularly, one event? Not tell-all of athletic performance. Who was sick or nursing an injury or taking it easy that day? Dwight's a more effective NBA athlete by a huge margin. Relative to his position, his tools are way more valuable. Redick's tools are weak-sauce for the 2-guard position.
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#119 » by rennytwentyone » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:20 pm

He'll probably average around 10 pts and somewhere between 6-8 assists a game as a rookie. And improve each year after..
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Re: Euroleague Adj. +/- ..how good is Rubio really? Hint: Am 

Post#120 » by tsherkin » Fri Jun 10, 2011 8:34 pm

kd35sneighbor wrote:Tony Parker ain't that great of a shooter and he's doing well. But he's a great finisher at the rim? Sure, but Rubio is no slouch in that regard, and you can't judge him off how he did in Europe anyway.


Tony Parker is extremely FAST though, his end-to-end speed is excellent and he's got fantastic acceleration... neither of which are true of Rubio. He's also shorter, which helps a little. Rubio isn't that great of a finisher at the rim either, he doesn't do very well under the arc at all, though of course the exact percentages are skewed because of European defenses, court dimensions, etc, etc.

If you want to reference Parker for any reason, it's that he's improved considerably as a FT shooter and as a shooter in general. He hit the league around 68% FT and he's regularly between 75% and 78% over the last half decade. When he's been permitted to play off-ball a little more, he's even shown an improved shot beneath the arc.

He's a good example of how improvement is possible.

His game style and his ability to finish around the rim, however, are not things you want to use to reflect Rubio. Ricky hasn't really shown the same deft touch on his floaters and tear-drops, nor does he have anything like Parker's speed.

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