Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary

[Flash Falcon X]

Warriors won 47 games with Andrew Bogut out for a majority of the season. They started a rookie in Festus Ezeli over him and still won 47 games.

Andrew Bogut will finally be healthy this upcoming season and you think they still only win 47 games now that they don't have to start two rookies anymore?

I thought Warriors fans overrated Jarrett Jack, but once he left it was the non-Warriors fans who started overrating him.

Jarrett Jack leaving finally means that Stephen Curry isn't going to hold back anymore. Curry always played extremely passive alongside Jack at the point. Now Curry finally has the ultimate green light to shoot. Last time he had a green light like threat he scored 54 points in Madison Square Garden.

Not only does he have that green light, but now he has more pressure taken off of him, too. Andrew Bogut finally becoming healthy gives the Warriors a bigger presence and better defense. Andre Igoudala comes in and adds even more defense and another scoring to help out Curry. This moves Harrison Barnes to the bench, instantly becoming a super sub to give a much needed scoring spark in the 2nd unit.

[HartfordWhalers]

basketball reference has iggy at 5.6 WS last year. not sure where the discrepancy comes from.

It looks like they use really different formula's:

bbref uses points per possession and individual drating as its main basis, with supporting roles for team pace, minutes played, and team's relative pace. And standardizes a bunch.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

In contrast, there is a factor model, and adjustments for position, assists etc in the other:
http://wagesofwins.com/how-to-calculate-wins-produced/

The result is pretty different stats with the same name.

[Jazzfan12]

The Nuggets problem is that their frontcout is made entirely of motor/athleticism guys with no intelligence or skill. Faried/McGee/Hickson is bad without taking fit into account, but they complement each other terribly because they're all the same.

[MrBigShot]

Has your view on the pistons changed after the Jennings/Knight trade?

[jazzfan1971]

yeah, I'll probably give the pistons one more win and the bucks one less.

[Manimal]

I don't think Denver makes the playoffs, so I think 50 wins is outlandish for a team who

-Lost the COY and replaced him with a rookie coach with a new system and philosophy
-Lost the EOY who could have swindled some more trades for them
-Traded their starting C for a back-up PF
-Will not have their starting SF (Gallo) for a little while as he comes back from injury
-Lost their starting SG (Iggy) and replaced him with Foye

I would not at all be surprised if they tank, I mean focus on player development, for 2013-14 and finish well back of the playoffs.

Losing Karl changes a lot of things, but it doesn't necessarily mean the impact will be negative. I feel Shaw will be better for player development, which is a huge plus. He has also noted that he will have a much greater emphasis on defense and halfcourt offense...two things Karl's teams always lacked. So while Karl optimized the team's roster to the fullest for regular season success, and there will likely be a small dip there; I believe overall the switch to Shaw will prove beneficial.

"Traded their starter for a backup" only looks bad until you realize that starter was Kosta Koufos, who was a career backup before being forced into a starting role, in which he only played backup minutes anyway. Don't get me wrong, he is a solid player, but he is really no more talented or a difference maker than Mozgov or McGee. Not much of a 'loss'.

Yeah they lost Iguodala and brought in Foye, but it's not like it's a straight up swap in terms of minutes and role. Iguodala's minutes will be spread out between a variety of players. Foye being one, but also Fournier, Chandler, and Robinson. The implications of that are hard to gauge. One thing is certain, however, and that is two of the Nuggets' greatest weaknesses from last year (three point and free throw shooting) will both be improved greatly. We'll see how it affects other aspects later on.

And finally, I don't see how the loss of Masai can be added on top of things. The main impact of a GM is what roster moves are made, with the majority of them coming in the offseason. If people don't like the moves the GM who replaced him have made and think as a result that this roster and coach will struggle, that's one thing. But the loss of Masai from the office he sits in during the course of the season really wont have much affect on what the team, already assembled, is doing on the court.

As far as OPs prediction and assessment, while I disagree with some of the stated points, I think the prediction of a 50-32 record is right in the middle of the ballpark where I see them finishing this season.

[Trader_Joe]

I don't think Denver makes the playoffs, so I think 50 wins is outlandish for a team who

-Lost the COY and replaced him with a rookie coach with a new system and philosophy
-Lost the EOY who could have swindled some more trades for them
-Traded their starting C for a back-up PF
-Will not have their starting SF (Gallo) for a little while as he comes back from injury
-Lost their starting SG (Iggy) and replaced him with Foye

I would not at all be surprised if they tank, I mean focus on player development, for 2013-14 and finish well back of the playoffs.

Losing Karl changes a lot of things, but it doesn't necessarily mean the impact will be negative. I feel Shaw will be better for player development, which is a huge plus. He has also noted that he will have a much greater emphasis on defense and halfcourt offense...two things Karl's teams always lacked. So while Karl optimized the team's roster to the fullest for regular season success, and there will likely be a small dip there; I believe overall the switch to Shaw will prove beneficial.

"Traded their starter for a backup" only looks bad until you realize that starter was Kosta Koufos, who was a career backup before being forced into a starting role, in which he only played backup minutes anyway. Don't get me wrong, he is a solid player, but he is really no more talented or a difference maker than Mozgov or McGee. Not much of a 'loss'.

Yeah they lost Iguodala and brought in Foye, but it's not like it's a straight up swap in terms of minutes and role. Iguodala's minutes will be spread out between a variety of players. Foye being one, but also Fournier, Chandler, and Robinson. The implications of that are hard to gauge. One thing is certain, however, and that is two of the Nuggets' greatest weaknesses from last year (three point and free throw shooting) will both be improved greatly. We'll see how it affects other aspects later on.

And finally, I don't see how the loss of Masai can be added on top of things. The main impact of a GM is what roster moves are made, with the majority of them coming in the offseason. If people don't like the moves the GM who replaced him have made and think as a result that this roster and coach will struggle, that's one thing. But the loss of Masai from the office he sits in during the course of the season really wont have much affect on what the team, already assembled, is doing on the court.

As far as OPs prediction and assessment, while I disagree with some of the stated points, I think the prediction of a 50-32 record is right in the middle of the ballpark where I see them finishing this season.

SAS
HOU
LAC
OKC
MEM
GSW
MIN
DEN
PDX
DAL
LAL
NOP

Will all be teams fighting for the playoffs with Denver or 11-12 teams total. I think Denver will be a lesser team than everyone above them barring major injuries between then and now. I think I'm being generous putting them above Portland and Dallas as well, who clearly have better players than anyone on Denver's roster (LMA, Lillard, Dirk...I'd list Kobe but I don't know how or when he's coming back and he's rather inefficient these days) and pretty solid starting 5s.

Denver still has great depth and a strong home court advantage, but I'm expected a major step back this season. Their defense should also take a major hit losing Iggy and KK and signing terrible defenders like Nate and Hickson.

50 wins is going to be very hard for Denver to come by.
If I didn't have a sig bet going for after the season, I'd make one with you!

[floppymoose]

basketball reference has iggy at 5.6 WS last year. not sure where the discrepancy comes from.

It looks like they use really different formula's:

bbref uses points per possession and individual drating as its main basis, with supporting roles for team pace, minutes played, and team's relative pace. And standardizes a bunch.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

In contrast, there is a factor model, and adjustments for position, assists etc in the other:
http://wagesofwins.com/how-to-calculate-wins-produced/

The result is pretty different stats with the same name.

They have different names: wins produced, win shares.

And wins produced is a useless 'stat'. It depends on its magic 'team adjustment' value to get all of its correlation with performance. The individual player values are laughably bad. It thought Troy Murphy was a top player, and that prime Dirk was not as good as Kris Humphries.

[HartfordWhalers]

I read both as wins.
I'm pretty skeptical of both, thus the more than a grain of salt recommendation.

[EvanZ]

So "jazzfan" pick Nuggets ahead of Warriors. Shocking, folks.

[jazzfan1971]

Well, Denver won 10 more games last season. So, it's not that much of a stretch is it?

[JimmyTD3]

Interesting that the Warriors basically added Bogut (who was out for most of the year, injured when he did play) and Iguodala, swapped out Landry/Jack with JO/Speights/Douglas...and you are projecting them to be worse? Not to mention a year of experience for Klay and Barnes.

Surely the minimal decrease in quality of the bench is offset by adding two bigtime players to the regular season roster?

Guess not..

[jazzfan1971]

I didn't say worse did I?

[JimmyTD3]

I didn't say worse did I?

Guess not.

Again, adding Bogut and Iguodala to any squad would presumably make that team better. And I don't think swapping Jack/Landry for JO/Speights/Douglas is enough to negate that "better". But I'm obviously biased so we'll see

[jazzfan1971]

Not sure how many games you can count on from Bogut.

[GoldenGoose]

I may have a bias, but I honestly cannot see the Nuggets ahead of Golden State. They lost their coach, their best player, their GM, and their starting center and replaced them with a roster full of small PGs and PFs. I don't buy it.

[jazzfan1971]

Knicks up.

[hamncheese]

Well, Denver won 10 more games last season. So, it's not that much of a stretch is it?

I think Denver has taken a number of steps back from 56 wins. Losing Iguodala and Karl is fairly significant. Long-term, replacing Karl makes sense but unless there is an established roster, replacing a veteran head coach with a rookie head coach is usually a rocky transition. Add to that, Gallinari won't be ready to start the season and is unknown as to when and how he will be when he does. I also feel, in terms of wins, last year's Nuggets over-achieved.

As for the Warriors, I am biased, but a top 6 of Curry, Klay, Iguodala, Lee, Bogut, and Barnes is better than a top 6 of Curry, Klay, Barnes, Lee, Bogut, and Jack. And a bench of Speights, O'Neal, and Douglas looks collectively better than Landry, Biedrins, and Jefferson. The rookies will be better, and while I am not confident in a full season of Bogut, I believe they will have more Bogut than 20 games like they had during last regular season.

I would flip Denver and Golden State for preseason rankings and put the Warriors ahead of the Knicks by a game or two. The Western Conference is tough, so even though I see the Warriors as improved, I can see them still finishing 6th, but they could challenge for a top 4 seed.

[EvanZ]

Well, Denver won 10 more games last season. So, it's not that much of a stretch is it?

One of the main reasons they won 10 more games is they added Iguodala, who was their best player. Their second best player, Gallinari, is probably out until January.

So yeah, I think it's quite a stretch.

[Jazzfan12]

Well, Denver won 10 more games last season. So, it's not that much of a stretch is it?

One of the main reasons they won 10 more games is they added Iguodala, who was their best player. Their second best player, Gallinari, is probably out until January.

So yeah, I think it's quite a stretch.

But they have Hickson now and they'll be playing McGee heavy minutes.

Nothing can go wrong there