2017-2018 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread Part Deux: Follow the Melo Brick Road

[slick_watts]

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stay me7o

[slick_watts]

How many #1 defensive teams have won it all over the past 10 years?

two. the 2007-08 celtics and the 2014-15 warriors.

the 2016-17 warriors are the only #1 offense to win a title in the same span.

you lose. better register another name.

[Pillendreher]

How many #1 defensive teams have won it all over the past 10 years?

I don't think you're really hearing what I'm saying. I'm not talking about #1 defense. I'm talking about if there were 40 teams instead of 30, this defense with Melo on the floor would rank 40th.

If we get into a 7 game series with Houston with a healthy CP3 and it turns into a shootout (it likely would), I'd rather have Melo on the floor for 30 plus minutes than Patterson. To me, the defensive statistical analysis goes out the window against elite offensive teams (Warriors, Houston).

Firt off, this isn't some made up #. This is the points we're giving up per 100 possessions (so you can account for pace and compare those numbers) with him on the floor. This is how good or bad we are defensively.

If you think you're gonna win a shootout against the two best offenisve teams in the league, you're going to lose, period. You can only beat those teams if you can actually defend them.

[Pillendreher]

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stay me7o

You know I'm with you on Melo, but this is not Melo's fault imo. First off, Russ is once again refusing to defend his man. That has George playing in no man's land because Russ will let Booker blow by him. It's his guy standing under the bucket.
If anything, Melo is the only guy rotating at the end.

[slick_watts]

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stay me7o

You know I'm with you on Melo, but this is not Melo's fault imo. First off, Russ is once again refusing to defend his man. That has George playing in no man's land because Russ will let Booker blow by him. It's his guy standing under the bucket.
If anything, Melo is the only guy rotating at the end.

if that's any other big on our roster the layup is contested.

[Pillendreher]

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stay me7o

You know I'm with you on Melo, but this is not Melo's fault imo. First off, Russ is once again refusing to defend his man. That has George playing in no man's land because Russ will let Booker blow by him. It's his guy standing under the bucket.
If anything, Melo is the only guy rotating at the end.

if that's any other big on our roster the layup is contested.

Oh sure. But that's nothing new with Melo. The only rim protection he's giving you is slapping at the ball.

[EnragedThunder]

How many #1 defensive teams have won it all over the past 10 years?

two. the 2007-08 celtics and the 2014-15 warriors.

the 2016-17 warriors are the only #1 offense to win a title in the same span.

you lose. better register another name.

We'll see in the next two months on whether the Thunder are better or worse with or without Roberson, and if Patterson ends up being the better offensive option over Melo.

The Sefaloshoa strategy didn't work against Miami, the Thunder couldn't get it done against the Warriors with Roberson/Ibaka, and Westbrook/Roberson couldn't get it done against the Rockets. We'll see.

[EnragedThunder]

When you look at the SG position for the 08 Celtics (Allen) and 15 Warriors (Thompson), there's a huge difference. Those guys can create shots, drain 3's, make free throws, which is quite opposite of Roberson. I'd argue that NBA champions seem to have elite SG's, versus players like Sefalosha and Roberson.

[ThunderBolt]

We’ve already seen that the thunder are worse without Roberson. We don’t need another month. You don’t have to have an all star at every position to win the finals.

[slick_watts]

How many #1 defensive teams have won it all over the past 10 years?

two. the 2007-08 celtics and the 2014-15 warriors.

the 2016-17 warriors are the only #1 offense to win a title in the same span.

you lose. better register another name.

We'll see in the next two months on whether the Thunder are better or worse with or without Roberson, and if Patterson ends up being the better offensive option over Melo.

The Sefaloshoa strategy didn't work against Miami, the Thunder couldn't get it done against the Warriors with Roberson/Ibaka, and Westbrook/Roberson couldn't get it done against the Rockets. We'll see.

this convo has been re-hashed here ad infinitum and, to be quite honest, if you're questioning whether the thunder are 'better or worse with or without roberson' at this point you're likely beyond reason.

i just wanted to tell you that you were incorrect with your insinuation re: #1 defensive teams winning titles. that you would be incorrect about such a simple thing to research before posting tells me (and others, i hope) what your opinion on this topic is worth.

[Bergmaniac]

The current version of Melo gives his team very little offensively, especially when paired up with two much better offensive players. It's not just his poor shooting. He can't get to the line, he is a terrible screener and he is not much of a passer. If he wasn't a big name getting paid huge money he'd have been benched long ago.

[ThunderBolt]

If We were told before the season that we would return the reigning mvp and sign him to an extension, George would play well alongside Westbrook, Felton would be much better than Semaj, and Adams would be the player we hoped for last year, who would have believed we might still miss the playoffs?

[slick_watts]

If We were told before the season that we would return the reigning mvp and sign him to an extension, George would play well alongside Westbrook, Felton would be much better than Semaj, and Adams would be the player we hoped for last year, who would have believed we might still miss the playoffs?

i mean, you're leaving out all the bad stuff, so no.

[Pillendreher]

One thing that has to improve no matter what is our shooting. We're 14th in C&S 3PA per game and 24th in C&S 3P%. We're 8th in open 3PA per game and 23rd in open 3P%. We're 16th in wide open 3PA per game and 14th in wide open 3P%. We're 16th in pull up 3PA per game and 27th in pull up 3P%.

8 guys on our team take at least 5 3s per 100 possessions. 164 guys do that league wide. This is how our 8 guys rank in 3P%:

19th: George
83rd: Patterson
91st: Felton
96th: Abrines
113th: Melo
144th: Ferguson
159th: Russ
162nd: Huestis

Currently, only George, Patterson, Felton and Abrines are at least average from the 3pt line. George takes 7.7 per game and the other 3 combine for 7.8 attempts per game. The rest of the team combines for 15.4 attempts and makes 31.8 % of those.

Enough with all the non-shooters. Enough with guys who can't make a 3 unless they are wide open. Enough with the offensive system that prevents us from getting guys open shots. I'm just sick of it. Sacramento and Dallas are 2nd and 3rd in team c&s 3P%. It is not that difficult to find guys to make shots.

EDIT:

Oh, and the other thing of course is free throw shooting.



This is another trend that's just horrible. We were excellent at that for years and now we're the 2nd worst FT shooting team in the league. Just making our FTs at a league average rate would push our MOV by +1.3 at this point. That's just a complete waste of easy points.

Please get back to actually caring about fundamentals. Enough with guys who can't even do basic stuff on the court.

And no, this is not meant as a bashing post re Adams and Roberson. Those guys are so good defensively, I'm willing to live with their shortcomings at the FT line. I'm talking about guys like Grant and Huestis and this season Russ as well.

[ThunderBolt]

If We were told before the season that we would return the reigning mvp and sign him to an extension, George would play well alongside Westbrook, Felton would be much better than Semaj, and Adams would be the player we hoped for last year, who would have believed we might still miss the playoffs?

i mean, you're leaving out all the bad stuff, so no.

Bedsides Dre getting hurt, what am I missing?

[Pillendreher]

If We were told before the season that we would return the reigning mvp and sign him to an extension, George would play well alongside Westbrook, Felton would be much better than Semaj, and Adams would be the player we hoped for last year, who would have believed we might still miss the playoffs?

i mean, you're leaving out all the bad stuff, so no.

Bedsides Dre getting hurt, what am I missing?

Russ having a bad year. Melo being really, really bad offensively. Donovan being his usual self.

[ThunderBolt]

i mean, you're leaving out all the bad stuff, so no.

Bedsides Dre getting hurt, what am I missing?

Russ having a bad year. Melo being really, really bad offensively. Donovan being his usual self.

That’s my point though. The fact that we were able to make the moves that addressed our weaknesses of not having a second option and backup point guard and the moves worked. Yet we might miss the playoffs...it’s just kind of crazy. I had concerns about Melo and didn’t expect Russ to replicate last season but didn’t expect their struggles to be enough to offset the other moves so much.

[Kizz Fastfists]

I didn't think Donovan could screw it up enough that with the moves they made there was any chance of them missing the playoffs. Melo's drop off isn't as surprising due his age and how his career has been going, but it was a bigger drop then most of us expected. I don't think anyone realistically expected Russ not to show some regression, especially his 3pt shooting. Even with Roberson being out they should still be an easy playoff team with this roster. Donovan's complete incompetence from rotations, schemes and not using players like Patterson, Dakari, Grant, etc right has really made a shallow roster look much worse. Give this roster to Brad Stevens or Pop and the Thunder are 3rd/4th in the West.

[Pillendreher]

Well I think there a couple of things one could not have seen coming:

-Russ overall inefficiency is quite staggering. Not getting to the line (as much), being horrible from the line, not being able to carry this team like he used to
-Melo is way worse than I thought. I saw that he was out yesterday and thought 'We just got better; we might just win this'.
-Donovan keeps going above and beyond trying to lose games. His rotations are horrible, as always. He still is unable to get the most out of his players and still does not understand what his players can do and how that works within a unit.
-Presti flat out refusing to get a backup for Adams
-Having the worst SG rotation in the league, possibly even without Dre being injured
-Not getting coached on offense, at all. Melo had to go to Donovan 20 games into the season and had to ask to get coached. It's already March and we still don't have any consistent flow and rhythm to our offense.
-Going from best to worst defensively because we are unwilling to adjust our defense according to personnel
-Being this absolutely horrible from 3 and from the line

I still remember Justin and David joking about what **** Donovan could pull before this season on MPN. He has not disappointed. I think one could honestly make the argument that you need a star on your roster just to offset Donovan as a coach.

[slick_watts]

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

this shot attempt by westbrook encapsulates the part of his game i can't get over. it happens way more than it ought to (it shouldn't happen at all), and it's why he's on a constant uphill battle as a scorer.

this shot is well contested. it's off balance. nobody is in position to rebound. why shoot this?

westbrook takes shots like this as if he is an elite shot maker like a stephen curry or dirk nowitzki. even in his best seasons, he's making 43% on pull-up two point jump shots. 38% this year.

how much better could westbrook be if he was a decent decision maker? these possessions he wastes on these shots have caught up to him with his three pointer not falling this year. is he ever going to grow up?