Playoff Race and Scoreboard Watching

[winforlose]

Houston needs to stay ahead of the Lakers. None of these teams, even OKC is going to shut it down with a week and a half left in the season.

I agree, but I am very curious what we will see from the Thunder when they play the Lakers twice in OKC next week. I agree they won’t shut it down, but with such a big lead, these games really don’t matter to the Thunder, so I wonder if we’ll get 100% commitment to winning. The Thunder are perfectly capable of putting two losses on the Lakers, but will they?

A knife doesn’t need to be super sharp to cut butter, but it does need to be sharp to cut through a watermelon. Does MD want his team his team at peak sharpness come playoff time, or does he want them to coast and dull their competitive edge?

[TimberKat]

If Wolves go 5-1 to finish 49-33 and DEN go 2-3. Every team DEN face are playoff teams.

Technically it's possible....I just don't see it as likely.

Looking at their schedule, Sacramento is below .500 and Memphis is reeling. In the finale, Houston will likely have nothing to play for.

Houston's remaining schedule is:
vs OKC
@ GSW
@ LAL
@ LAC
vs Nuggets

You don't think they will have anything to play for? It's likely they will be playing for their seed that day. Especially if the Nuggets only lose one of their next 4 games.

Denvers remaining schedule is:
@ GSW
vs. Pacers
@ Kings
vs MEM
@ Houston

Denver is reeling now too. They just lost @ home to the SAS last night who had lost 6 straight games and are without their top two players. I get they rested everyone, but everyone of their remaining games is more difficult than the SAS last night. Could they go 4-1 or 5-0? Sure, but I think 3-2 or 2-3 is just as likely.

If the Wolves win out they have a lot better chance to get the 3rd seed than you realize. We go 5-1 we probably get the 5 or 6 seed.

I told them to rest their players against Twolves Great job for Wolves to kill two games in one night.

[TimberKat]

I am actually more worried DEN than Lakers or Rockets. I know we beat DEN many times before but the Joker with a full deck is one dangerous hand.

[shrink]

I’m rooting for GSW@LAL to go to 3 OT.

They both are on the front ends of back-to-back.

[shrink]

I’m watching MEM @ MIA on TNT, but it’s hard to keep looking.

Both teams have nearly as many turnovers as assists.

[shrink]

Ja gamewinner as time expired.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

I’m rooting for GSW@LAL to go to 3 OT.

They both are on the front ends of back-to-back.

Me too !

[TimberKat]

I’m rooting for GSW@LAL to go to 3 OT.

They both are on the front ends of back-to-back.

Yes, I think Lakers are too far away. We need Lakers beat GSW tonight.

[Loaf_of_bread]

Lol.. back to 7th seed currently

[Loaf_of_bread]

GSW... look at their starting lineup.. they are so short. We wouldn't see them in first round, but that team is tiny.

[TimberKat]

Not a good night for scorebroad watching - MEM and GSW both won close games

[ILC]

With a GSW win all hell breaks loose. Anything from 3rd to 8th is possible now. If the Wolves win out I'm pretty optimistic about the 3rd seed. But Memphis and Bucks will be tough games, they have a lot to play for.

[winforlose]

It is way too early to know if GSW win is good or bad for us. I have no idea if the Lakers and Nuggets will each lose two games. They do, and GSW loses one then in theory if we win out we get the 3 seed. But even that needs to be double checked.

[winforlose]

So I did some digging, LAL has split with Denvert and Minnesota. They have a 3-1 lead over GSW and LAC. If we beat Memphis then Memphis cannot be tied with us, and I don’t see a multi way tie at 33 losses. Denver being 0-4 to us is massive in any tie breaker race. Therefore we should root for Denver to lose exactly two games if we want 3rd. If they lose less they are automatically ahead of us, more and we have to do the tie breaker math with less friendly teams (unless the Clippers can hold on and be there.) Gonna be a wild 10 days.

[Ethomasp31]

So I did some digging, LAL has split with Denvert and Minnesota. They have a 3-1 lead over GSW and LAC. If we beat Memphis then Memphis cannot be tied with us, and I don’t see a multi way tie at 33 losses. Denver being 0-4 to us is massive in any tie breaker race. Therefore we should root for Denver to lose exactly two games if we want 3rd. If they lose less they are automatically ahead of us, more and we have to do the tie breaker math with less friendly teams (unless the Clippers can hold on and be there.) Gonna be a wild 10 days.

Here are the latest odds at each seed. The Wolves are now a 9% chance to get the 3 seed. We play three games against teams who are playing for their draft pick...tomorrow night and then the last two games at home. If we win out that 9% is going to go to over 40%.

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/wid1CB.png

Also....here are all the head to head outcomes updated after last night. If we win out it doesn't matter if Memphis or the LAC keep on winning. We do lose a tie-breaker to whoever wins the Pacific Division, but they would have to be tied with us for that to happen. So I guess we might need the Clippers to lose one more game if they win the division.

Here are the head to head standings for teams 3-8.

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/HSfnMP.png

[Ethomasp31]

It is way too early to know if GSW win is good or bad for us. I have no idea if the Lakers and Nuggets will each lose two games. They do, and GSW loses one then in theory if we win out we get the 3 seed. But even that needs to be double checked.

We need the Lakers to lose 3 more games and the Warriors to lose 2 more games. If we are tied with those teams, the division winner would be the higher seed (plus they have the head to head or conference record tie-breakers).

Here are the basic tie-breakers...

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/5WXxwT.png

Also, the Blazers winning yesterday was good. They play the Bulls tonight (another game we want them to win), @ home against the SAS Sunday and then against the Jazz on Wednesday. While they are going through that stretch the Kings and Suns have brutal 4 game stretches. The Blazers could easily be playing to get into the play-in that last weekend @ home against two team we would like them to beat (GSW and LAL). I'm not saying they will beat them, but it is better that they would be playing for something rather than sitting half of their lineup like the Jazz, 76ers and Nets will be.

[Ethomasp31]

Not a good night for scorebroad watching - MEM and GSW both won close games

I don't know...the Lakers lost. Our chances for the 3rd seed went up from 6.5% to 8.9%. If we win out that would go over 40%. The Lakers and Warriors projected win totals for the season are now at 48.6 and 48.4 games. If we win out we are at 50 wins (our projected win total is now 48.5 games). Denvers is 49.6 but if we have the same record as they do we win the tie-breaker.

We now have a 71.3% chance at being one of the top 6 seeds, GSW are 67% and the LAL are at 83.8%. The Lakers still have to go to OKC twice, and I don't see OKC shutting it down until after those games. They want to play some high intensity games before the playoffs too. If we get to 50 wins we have a real shot at the 3 seed and a very good chance to have the home court advantage in the first round. If we get to 49 we will probably be the 5 or 6. With 48 wins we are most likely in the play=in game, especially if one of those losses is to Memphis.

[Domejandro]

There are multiple huge games tonight for Minnesota.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets (50-27)
Denver Nuggets (47-30) @ Golden State Warriors (45-31)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Lakers (46-30)
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers (44-32)

[shrink]

April 4

#3 DEN (47-30). 0.0 GB
#4 LAL (46-30). 0.5 GB

#5 GSW (45-31). 1.5 GB
#6 MEM (45-32). 2.0 GB
#7 MIN (45-32). 2.0 GB
#8 LAC (44-32). 2.5 GB

DEN: @GSW, vsIND, @SAC, vsMEM, @HOU
LAL: vsNOP (btb), @OKC, @OKC, @DAL (btb), vsHOU, @POR

GSW: vsDEN (btb), vsHOU, @PHX, vsSAS (btb), @POR, vsLAC

MIN: @PHI, @MIL, @MEM, vsBRK (btb), vsUTA
MEM: @DET, @CHA, vsMIN, @DEN (btb), vsDAL

LAC: vsDAL, vsDAL (btb), vsSAS, vsHOU (btb), @SAC, @GSW


Games Tonight, April 4

9:00 DEN (47-30) @ GSW (45-31). GSW favored by 1.5

9:30 NOP (21-55) @ LAL (46-30). LAL favored by 15.5

9:30 DAL (38-39) @ LAC (44-32). LAC favored by 10.5. NBA-TV

[shrink]

If the favorites win, spots 3-8 would only be separated by two games. If LAL got upset, it could be 1.5.