Retro Player of the Year 2014-15

[lessthanjake]

```

Overall, this is not entirely conclusive, since there’s data going both ways, but the data picture does go in Harden’s direction overall IMO. And when we account for the fact that Harden played 20% more minutes than LeBron during the regular season, it’s pretty easy to conclude that Harden was better in the regular season. Which, FWIW, was something that the MVP voters agreed with—putting Harden in 2nd, and well above LeBron in 3rd. This conclusion is, of course, bolstered by the fact that Harden lifted the Rockets to 56 wins, despite Dwight missing half the season.

I'm sorry but I don't think you read the data in best way.

WOWY RAPM and on/off say Lebron better so I think it must be said the numbers like Lebron for impact.

There are also problem maybe in one RAPM inside https://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?t=9491. Mamba maker says coding is wrong.```

How could WOWY say LeBron was better? Harden missed one game (which the Rockets lost). WOWY really doesn’t say anything about Harden at all that year, so there’s no comparison to be made on that front. Meanwhile, I included RAPM data, so I wouldn’t say on-off adds much of anything. RAPM is basically just on-off that controls for who else is on the court, so if the RAPM between two players is notably closer than the on-off, then it basically just tells us that lineup factors were more favorable to the player with the better on-off. Furthermore, if you want to talk about on-off, then FWIW Harden’s playoff on-off was notably better than LeBron’s (though obviously playoff impact data is super noisy).

Anyways, as for the Gitlab RAPM, all I see there is some discussion about optimizing things and reducing coding errors that could almost certainly be said about virtually any RAPM measure, but mostly isn’t because almost no one else actually provides their code like this person did. If MyUniBroDavis wants to actually elaborate this criticism himself rather than you passing along a link and a vague statement about what MyUniBroDavis thinks (which you likely did after some internal-Discord discussion on how to respond to that RAPM measure), then he can feel free to do so. In the meantime, I’m happy for others to read that thread you linked to and see if they really come away thinking that that RAPM measure isn’t a credible/good RAPM measure. In any event, this all seems a bit beside the point here, since that particular measure actually was one of the minority of measures that went in LeBron’s favor over Harden. If anything, throwing away that measure would make my point about Harden stronger. Given that, I suspect this is just a point that the Discord has been waiting to work into the first discussion where the GitLab RAPM is mentioned, ever since I pointed out that it isn’t “unsourced.”

[Elpolo_14]

```

I'm sorry but I don't think you read the data in best way.

WOWY RAPM and on/off say Lebron better so I think it must be said the numbers like Lebron for impact.

There are also problem maybe in one RAPM inside https://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?t=9491. Mamba maker says coding is wrong.```

How could WOWY say LeBron was better? Harden missed one game (which the Rockets lost). WOWY really doesn’t say anything about Harden at all, so there’s no comparison to be made on that front. Meanwhile, I included RAPM data, so I wouldn’t say on-off adds much of anything. RAPM is basically just on-off that controls for who else is on the court, so if the RAPM between two players is closer than the on-off, then it basically just tells us that lineup factors were more favorable to the player with the better on-off. Furthermore, if you want to talk about on-off, then FWIW Harden’s playoff on-off was notably better than LeBron’s.

Anyways, as for the Gitlab RAPM, all I see there is some discussion about optimizing things and reducing coding errors that could almost certainly be said about any RAPM measure, but mostly isn’t because almost no one else actually provides their code like this person did. If MyUniBroDavis wants to actually elaborate this criticism himself rather than you passing along a link and a vague statement about what MyUniBroDavis thinks (which you likely did after some internal-Discord discussion on how to respond to that RAPM measure), then he can feel free to do so. In the meantime, I’m happy for others to read that thread you linked to and see if they really come away thinking that that RAPM measure isn’t a credible/good RAPM measure. (In any event, this all seems a bit beside the point here, since that particular measure actually was one of the minority of measures that went in LeBron’s favor over Harden—I suspect it’s just a point that the Discord has been waiting to work into a discussion where the GitLab RAPM is mentioned, ever since I pointed out that it isn’t “unsourced”).

I wouldn't say the RAPM is close either
By Databallr - Bron 3.2 vs Harden 2.6. the gap get Significantly bigger by the sample ( 2yr - 6.8vs5.3 / 3yr - 8.4vs3.6 ect. )

Nbarapm - Bron 6.8 vs Harden 5.3 ( also get larger by multiple year RAPM )

The On/off also just an indicator because lebron RAPM is more notable anyway

Even DPM lebron have a an edge ( Bron take edge both Offense/ Defense )
Bron - 8.0
Harden - 6.0

Mamba
Bron -8.1
Harden - 7.3

Lebron
Bron - 5.4+ ( 6th in league )
Harden - 5.4 ( 7th in league )

The WOWY is to indicate how Bron impact the Team when he actually play because like you mentioned he did miss more game than Harden this year. It not to discredit Harden but rather show more Bron impact

Lastly who is mybrodavis?

[lessthanjake]

```
I'm sorry but I don't think you read the data in best way.

WOWY RAPM and on/off say Lebron better so I think it must be said the numbers like Lebron for impact.

There are also problem maybe in one RAPM inside https://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?t=9491. Mamba maker says coding is wrong.```

How could WOWY say LeBron was better? Harden missed one game (which the Rockets lost). WOWY really doesn’t say anything about Harden at all, so there’s no comparison to be made on that front. Meanwhile, I included RAPM data, so I wouldn’t say on-off adds much of anything. RAPM is basically just on-off that controls for who else is on the court, so if the RAPM between two players is closer than the on-off, then it basically just tells us that lineup factors were more favorable to the player with the better on-off. Furthermore, if you want to talk about on-off, then FWIW Harden’s playoff on-off was notably better than LeBron’s.

Anyways, as for the Gitlab RAPM, all I see there is some discussion about optimizing things and reducing coding errors that could almost certainly be said about any RAPM measure, but mostly isn’t because almost no one else actually provides their code like this person did. If MyUniBroDavis wants to actually elaborate this criticism himself rather than you passing along a link and a vague statement about what MyUniBroDavis thinks (which you likely did after some internal-Discord discussion on how to respond to that RAPM measure), then he can feel free to do so. In the meantime, I’m happy for others to read that thread you linked to and see if they really come away thinking that that RAPM measure isn’t a credible/good RAPM measure. (In any event, this all seems a bit beside the point here, since that particular measure actually was one of the minority of measures that went in LeBron’s favor over Harden—I suspect it’s just a point that the Discord has been waiting to work into a discussion where the GitLab RAPM is mentioned, ever since I pointed out that it isn’t “unsourced”).

I wouldn't say the RAPM is close either
By Databallr - Bron 3.2 vs Harden 2.6. the gap get Significantly bigger by the sample ( 2yr - 6.8vs5.3 / 3yr - 8.4vs3.6 ect. )

Nbarapm - Bron 6.8 vs Harden 5.3 ( also get larger by multiple year RAPM )

The On/off also just an indicator because lebron RAPM is more notable anyway

Even DPM lebron have a an edge ( Bron take edge both Offense/ Defense )
Bron - 8.0
Harden - 6.0

Mamba
Bron -8.1
Harden - 7.3

Lebron
Bron - 5.4+ ( 6th in league )
Harden - 5.4 ( 7th in league )

The WOWY is to indicate how Bron impact the Team when he actually play because like you mentioned he did miss more game than Harden this year. It not to discredit Harden but rather show more Bron impact

Lastly who is mybrodavis?

Of course LeBron’s multi-year RAPM easily pulls ahead of Harden. He was better than Harden in surrounding years. But this thread is about the 2014-15 year, not those other years. 2014-15 was a down year for LeBron. Multi-year RAPM tells us who was better over a longer span, not over a particular year, and that’s especially true when one of the players had a down year in the year in question. Meanwhile, I should note that while I did list it for sake of completeness, one-year RAPM is very noisy so it’s not all that helpful on its own for purposes of a POY vote (measures like all-in-ones that are aimed at reducing noise in smaller samples are better for these purposes).

Also, just as a factual matter, please do note that the NBArapm data you describe is two-year RAPM. It does not have one-year RAPM. And I don’t know what you’re referring to regarding databallr RAPM, since databallr is the one who operates the NBArapm website. Am happy for you to provide a link to whatever you’re talking about.

As to DPM, that is meant to be a predictive measure, not a descriptive one. It is not meant to be used for these purposes, just like the “Expected” version of EPM isn’t.

Finally, your MAMBA and LEBRON data is actually wrong. The NBArapm website must not be updated with data from the most recent versions of those metrics. If you pull the information from the metrics’ websites themselves, you’ll see the information I posted on those metrics for Harden and LeBron is correct. It doesn’t make a big difference, but Harden is ahead of LeBron by a bit in LEBRON in 2014-15.

[Top10alltime]

I've been seeing a LOT of Harden love, which makes absolutely no sense to put him even close to CP3 imo. In fact, a better case can even be made for CP3 over Lebron (my POY rn), than for Harden over CP3. In fact, I would have CP3 here as a better player than Steph himself. (I don't want to be accused of trolling tho). I'd actually love for people to make a decent argument for CP3 below Harden, because I have yet to find one in this thread!

I can see it for Steph, but I'm not convinced on him over CP3 either. Only one I'm convinced on, is Lebron in a down year

[Elpolo_14]

How could WOWY say LeBron was better? Harden missed one game (which the Rockets lost). WOWY really doesn’t say anything about Harden at all, so there’s no comparison to be made on that front. Meanwhile, I included RAPM data, so I wouldn’t say on-off adds much of anything. RAPM is basically just on-off that controls for who else is on the court, so if the RAPM between two players is closer than the on-off, then it basically just tells us that lineup factors were more favorable to the player with the better on-off. Furthermore, if you want to talk about on-off, then FWIW Harden’s playoff on-off was notably better than LeBron’s.

Anyways, as for the Gitlab RAPM, all I see there is some discussion about optimizing things and reducing coding errors that could almost certainly be said about any RAPM measure, but mostly isn’t because almost no one else actually provides their code like this person did. If MyUniBroDavis wants to actually elaborate this criticism himself rather than you passing along a link and a vague statement about what MyUniBroDavis thinks (which you likely did after some internal-Discord discussion on how to respond to that RAPM measure), then he can feel free to do so. In the meantime, I’m happy for others to read that thread you linked to and see if they really come away thinking that that RAPM measure isn’t a credible/good RAPM measure. (In any event, this all seems a bit beside the point here, since that particular measure actually was one of the minority of measures that went in LeBron’s favor over Harden—I suspect it’s just a point that the Discord has been waiting to work into a discussion where the GitLab RAPM is mentioned, ever since I pointed out that it isn’t “unsourced”).

I wouldn't say the RAPM is close either
By Databallr - Bron 3.2 vs Harden 2.6. the gap get Significantly bigger by the sample ( 2yr - 6.8vs5.3 / 3yr - 8.4vs3.6 ect. )

Nbarapm - Bron 6.8 vs Harden 5.3 ( also get larger by multiple year RAPM )

The On/off also just an indicator because lebron RAPM is more notable anyway

Even DPM lebron have a an edge ( Bron take edge both Offense/ Defense )
Bron - 8.0
Harden - 6.0

Mamba
Bron -8.1
Harden - 7.3

Lebron
Bron - 5.4+ ( 6th in league )
Harden - 5.4 ( 7th in league )

The WOWY is to indicate how Bron impact the Team when he actually play because like you mentioned he did miss more game than Harden this year. It not to discredit Harden but rather show more Bron impact

Lastly who is mybrodavis?

Of course LeBron’s multi-year RAPM easily pulls ahead of Harden. He was better than Harden in surrounding years. But this thread is about the 2014-15 year, not those other years. 2014-15 was a down year for LeBron. Multi-year RAPM tells us who was better over a longer span, not over a particular year, and that’s especially true when one of the players had a down year in the year in question. Meanwhile, I should note that while I did list it for sake of completeness, one-year RAPM is very noisy so it’s not all that helpful on its own for purposes of a POY vote (measures like all-in-ones that are aimed at reducing noise in smaller samples are better for these purposes).

Also, just as a factual matter, please do note that the NBArapm data you describe is two-year RAPM. It does not have one-year RAPM. And I don’t know what you’re referring to regarding databallr RAPM, since databallr is the one who operates the NBArapm website. Am happy for you to provide a link to whatever you’re talking about.

As to DPM, that is meant to be a predictive measure, not a descriptive one. It is not meant to be used for these purposes, just like the “Expected” version of EPM isn’t.

Finally, your MAMBA and LEBRON data is actually wrong. The NBArapm website must not be updated with data from the most recent versions of those metrics. If you pull the information from the metrics’ websites themselves, you’ll see the information I posted on those metrics is correct. It doesn’t make a big difference, but Harden is ahead by a bit in LEBRON in 2014-15.

You Saying EPM and DPM isn't to be use but you literally use EPM in the first few paragraphs on the original post I replied to.

For Databallr I don't know if they have website cause I use the application one. You can download ( Databallr on app store )then selection head to head comparison then chose Bron/Harden the same year to see the stat I mentioned.

I use Nbarapm.com 2 yr RAPM just to show in Identical to 2yr of Databallr who even have 1yr RAPM higher. ( I just recently learned that they're the same organization by you. Thx )

Do you have free link for the metric website cause everytime I try to use it it has a pay subscription wall before acceding to the info

[lessthanjake]

I've been seeing a LOT of Harden love, which makes absolutely no sense to put him even close to CP3 imo. In fact, a better case can even be made for CP3 over Lebron (my POY rn), than for Harden over CP3. In fact, I would have CP3 here as a better player than Steph himself. (I don't want to be accused of trolling tho). I'd actually love for people to make a decent argument for CP3 below Harden, because I have yet to find one in this thread!

I can see it for Steph, but I'm not convinced on him over CP3 either. Only one I'm convinced on, is Lebron in a down year

CP3 has a similar argument as Harden for being better than LeBron in the regular season. The data definitely doesn’t support CP3 above Steph, but it can support him above LeBron. And, while it’s a bit closer, there’s an argument for Chris Paul above Harden too. In terms of metrics, Harden is ahead of CP3 in LEBRON, BPM, and GitLab RAPM. Chris Paul is ahead of Harden in EPM, MAMBA, RAPTOR, BasketballDatabase RAPM, Thinking Basketball BPM, and WS/48. So while there’s data going both ways, I think on balance Chris Paul probably was better than Harden in the regular season (though Harden finished higher in MVP voting, probably because of the lift to the same 56-win record despite Dwight Howard being out half the season—a circumstantial fact to keep in mind about Harden’s season). The problem for Chris Paul was that he got injured in the playoffs, which significantly contributed to his team getting eliminated (a fact which I remembered while making this post, and will note that it definitely mostly mutes the force of what I’d said about the impressiveness of beating the Clippers in the playoffs). I think most people would take someone who was maybe slightly less good in the RS but actually stayed healthy in the playoffs instead of going out while injured. I think this factor puts CP3 below Harden and LeBron, even though he probably was a bit better than both in the RS.

[lessthanjake]

I wouldn't say the RAPM is close either
By Databallr - Bron 3.2 vs Harden 2.6. the gap get Significantly bigger by the sample ( 2yr - 6.8vs5.3 / 3yr - 8.4vs3.6 ect. )

Nbarapm - Bron 6.8 vs Harden 5.3 ( also get larger by multiple year RAPM )

The On/off also just an indicator because lebron RAPM is more notable anyway

Even DPM lebron have a an edge ( Bron take edge both Offense/ Defense )
Bron - 8.0
Harden - 6.0

Mamba
Bron -8.1
Harden - 7.3

Lebron
Bron - 5.4+ ( 6th in league )
Harden - 5.4 ( 7th in league )

The WOWY is to indicate how Bron impact the Team when he actually play because like you mentioned he did miss more game than Harden this year. It not to discredit Harden but rather show more Bron impact

Lastly who is mybrodavis?

Of course LeBron’s multi-year RAPM easily pulls ahead of Harden. He was better than Harden in surrounding years. But this thread is about the 2014-15 year, not those other years. 2014-15 was a down year for LeBron. Multi-year RAPM tells us who was better over a longer span, not over a particular year, and that’s especially true when one of the players had a down year in the year in question. Meanwhile, I should note that while I did list it for sake of completeness, one-year RAPM is very noisy so it’s not all that helpful on its own for purposes of a POY vote (measures like all-in-ones that are aimed at reducing noise in smaller samples are better for these purposes).

Also, just as a factual matter, please do note that the NBArapm data you describe is two-year RAPM. It does not have one-year RAPM. And I don’t know what you’re referring to regarding databallr RAPM, since databallr is the one who operates the NBArapm website. Am happy for you to provide a link to whatever you’re talking about.

As to DPM, that is meant to be a predictive measure, not a descriptive one. It is not meant to be used for these purposes, just like the “Expected” version of EPM isn’t.

Finally, your MAMBA and LEBRON data is actually wrong. The NBArapm website must not be updated with data from the most recent versions of those metrics. If you pull the information from the metrics’ websites themselves, you’ll see the information I posted on those metrics is correct. It doesn’t make a big difference, but Harden is ahead by a bit in LEBRON in 2014-15.

You Saying EPM and DPM isn't to be use but you literally use EPM in the first few paragraphs on the original post I replied to.

No. There’s two versions of EPM. One is a predictive measure, called “Expected” EPM. That one is like DPM. The other is a descriptive measure, called “Actual” EPM. That’s the one I cited to.

For Databallr I don't know if they have website cause I use the application one. You can download ( Databallr on app store )then selection head to head comparison then chose Bron/Harden the same year to see the stat I mentioned.

I don’t see that on the App Store, but I did find the website for it and located what you’re talking about. Thanks! For purposes of this discussion it seems consistent with the other two one-year RAPMs I posted. LeBron is ahead by a bit in all the one-year RAPMs, but one-year RAPM is super noisy so it really isn’t the best data for evaluating a single year (which is probably why the NBArapm website doesn’t list one-year RAPM, even though DataBallr obviously actually has it and NBArapm lists all the other RAPM timeframes he has). It’s worth putting in the pile of things we look at when evaluating a single year, but it really shouldn’t get the most weight (whereas, when evaluating longer time horizons, I think RAPM becomes something we should give quite a lot of weight to, because it is much less noisy over longer timespans).

And, on a semi-related note, I do also want to reiterate that Harden played like 20% more than LeBron in the RS, and all these measures we’re talking about are rate stats. I’m not big into weighing minutes-played too much, but missing 13 RS games is significant, and is glossed over by rate stats. If you look at all the relevant RS data, Harden looks better overall IMO (albeit not totally conclusively), but that becomes a pretty easy conclusion when you consider the missed games.

I use Nbarapm.com 2 yr RAPM just to show in Identical to 2yr of Databallr who even have 1yr RAPM higher. ( I just recently learned that they're the same organization by you. Thx )

Do you have free link for the metric website cause everytime I try to use it it has a pay subscription wall before acceding to the info

I don’t have a free link to EPM. That one you have to pay for. But LEBRON and MAMBA should be free.

[Djoker]

Jake, I'm a bit surprised that while you conclude that Harden > Lebron based on the metrics, you'd still put Lebron ahead because he made the Finals. Why would making it a round further in a weaker conference matter? They were both eliminated by the same Warriors team. As far as team accomplishment, they get an even score in my book.

[lessthanjake]

Jake, I'm a bit surprised that while you conclude that Harden > Lebron based on the metrics, you'd still put Lebron ahead because he made the Finals. Why would making it a round further in a weaker conference matter? They were both eliminated by the same Warriors team. As far as team accomplishment, they get an even score in my book.

It’s a good question, and one that definitely just comes down to my own subjective approach to the question of POY. To me, one aspect of POY is how significant a player was to the story of the league that year. On that front, I think the Finals weighs a pretty good amount in making someone important/significant that year. And that can potentially be enough to vault a player ahead of someone who I think performed better. To me, LeBron was close enough to Harden in individual performance in 2014-15 that the fact of making the Finals puts him above Harden for me for POY, even though I think Harden actually performed better and he simply lost to the same team one round earlier.

That said, I think my approach is definitely one that others could very reasonably not take. Indeed, the fact that I expect others don’t take this same approach is part of why I made the post about Harden/LeBron—I think there’s a good case for Harden to be picked over LeBron, particularly by people who might not take the exact same approach as I do.

As you note, one consequence to my approach on this is that it does basically advantage players who play in a weak conference, since it is easier to make the Finals and therefore easier to bolster one’s significance. This is probably a year where if you merely swapped the conferences of these players, I’d likely end up swapping my ranking of them, because swapping conferences would probably determine which one made the Finals and which one didn’t. I’m okay with that sort of thing, but mostly because I don’t see POY as strictly a “Who was the best player” or “Who performed the best” award (though obviously that’s a big part of the equation).

[Djoker]

It’s a good question, and one that definitely just comes down to my own subjective approach to the question of POY. To me, one aspect of POY is how significant a player was to the story of the league that year. On that front, I think the Finals weighs a pretty good amount in making someone important/significant that year. And that can potentially be enough to vault a player ahead of someone who I think performed better. To me, LeBron was close enough to Harden in individual performance in 2014-15 that the fact of making the Finals puts him above Harden for me for POY, even though I think Harden actually performed better and he simply lost to the same team one round earlier.

That said, I think my approach is definitely one that others could very reasonably not take. Indeed, the fact that I expect others don’t take this same approach is part of why I made the post about Harden/LeBron—I think there’s a good case for Harden to be picked over LeBron, particularly by people who might not take the exact same approach as I do.

As you note, one consequence to my approach on this is that it does basically advantage players who play in a weak conference, since it is easier to make the Finals and therefore easier to bolster one’s significance. This is probably a year where if you merely swapped the conferences of these players, I’d likely end up swapping my ranking of them, because swapping conferences would probably determine which one made the Finals and which one didn’t. I’m okay with that sort of thing, but mostly because I don’t see POY as strictly a “Who was the best player” or “Who performed the best” award (though obviously that’s a big part of the equation).

I can agree with your explanation and I also care about how a player featured in the story of the league that year.

However, the NBA media makes us believe that the Finals is always the battle between the two best teams... which it often is except when it isn't. Teams making it out of the Eastern Conference since the turn of the millennium have often not been a serious match for whoever came out of the West. In that case, I will make a mental note to not assign quite the usual credit for making the Finals. An extreme case is the 2001 Sixers being the weakest opponent (by SRS) that the 2001 Lakers faced in the playoffs. This has implications on both Iverson's case and Shaq's case that year as I don't think Shaq's Finals MVP is as important as Kobe's domination of the Spurs which was the "real Finals" that year. In 2015, there is a major mitigating factor of injuries to Kyrie/Love and so Lebron making the Finals is actually a bigger deal than it usually would be. Although as you've made the case in this thread and I have in the past, the 2015 Hawks are very much a paper tiger and a good bit weaker than a typical conference finalist. The Spurs, Clippers and Rockets are all better than any team Lebron faced in the East. All in all, the context surrounding the 2014-15 season is quite complex and there's a lot to unpack.

[lessthanjake]

It’s a good question, and one that definitely just comes down to my own subjective approach to the question of POY. To me, one aspect of POY is how significant a player was to the story of the league that year. On that front, I think the Finals weighs a pretty good amount in making someone important/significant that year. And that can potentially be enough to vault a player ahead of someone who I think performed better. To me, LeBron was close enough to Harden in individual performance in 2014-15 that the fact of making the Finals puts him above Harden for me for POY, even though I think Harden actually performed better and he simply lost to the same team one round earlier.

That said, I think my approach is definitely one that others could very reasonably not take. Indeed, the fact that I expect others don’t take this same approach is part of why I made the post about Harden/LeBron—I think there’s a good case for Harden to be picked over LeBron, particularly by people who might not take the exact same approach as I do.

As you note, one consequence to my approach on this is that it does basically advantage players who play in a weak conference, since it is easier to make the Finals and therefore easier to bolster one’s significance. This is probably a year where if you merely swapped the conferences of these players, I’d likely end up swapping my ranking of them, because swapping conferences would probably determine which one made the Finals and which one didn’t. I’m okay with that sort of thing, but mostly because I don’t see POY as strictly a “Who was the best player” or “Who performed the best” award (though obviously that’s a big part of the equation).

I can agree with your explanation and I also care about how a player featured in the story of the league that year.

However, the NBA media makes us believe that the Finals is always the battle between the two best teams... which it often is except when it isn't. Teams making it out of the Eastern Conference since the turn of the millennium have often not been a serious match for whoever came out of the West. In that case, I will make a mental note to not assign quite the usual credit for making the Finals. An extreme case is the 2001 Sixers being the weakest opponent (by SRS) that the 2001 Lakers faced in the playoffs. This has implications on both Iverson's case and Shaq's case that year as I don't think Shaq's Finals MVP is as important as Kobe's domination of the Spurs which was the "real Finals" that year. In 2015, there is a major mitigating factor of injuries to Kyrie/Love and so Lebron making the Finals is actually a bigger deal than it usually would be. Although as you've made the case in this thread and I have in the past, the 2015 Hawks are very much a paper tiger and a good bit weaker than a typical conference finalist. The Spurs, Clippers and Rockets are all better than any team Lebron faced in the East. All in all, the context surrounding the 2014-15 season is quite complex and there's a lot to unpack.

Yeah, I think all of this makes sense. I’ll note that I wouldn’t say I value making the Finals exactly the same in all contexts. Iverson making the Finals in 2001 is not as impressive to me as getting there with a much more difficult road (nor do I think people regarded it that way at the time). But I do put some independent value on the fact of having made the Finals, so I think a player like 2001 Iverson does get advantaged somewhat by my approach, since he would definitely rank higher to me than he would’ve if he’d been in the Western Conference and played equally well and simply lost in an earlier round to the Lakers.

The set of players that my approach might unduly put a finger on the scale in favor of therefore includes guys like LeBron, Magic, Kidd, and Iverson—who made Finals in very weak conferences. Conversely, I’d say my approach might unduly hurt guys like Nash, Duncan, Dirk, Harden, Chris Paul, and Bird—who had great teams and missed Finals while being in the tougher conference. My approach isn’t completely agnostic to this context—2001 Iverson making the Finals isn’t as impressive or significant as 2006 Dirk making the Finals, and Nash failing to make the Finals is made more understandable given his opponents. But making the Finals has independent value to me—i.e. I still do value losing in the Finals after getting through a weak conference as being more significant than losing before the Finals to the same opponent—so my approach does still end up putting the finger on the scale in favor of players in weak conferences.

I do want to note that this approach is quite charitable to LeBron, and yet I’m sure people here will continue accusing me of twisting things in as anti-LeBron a manner as possible. There’s a tendency here for people to sit in a glass house throwing stones at a brick house.

[Top10alltime]

Well, now that I think about it, I do think CP3 is above Steph this season. I'm going to explain why here (and hoping to move some people to put CP3 at 2nd).

CP3 > Steph because
-> he is far better at defence, anyone who disagrees never watched basketball in their life
-> he is the best playmaker in the league by far, much better than Steph due to him going on-ball (where he is mid) a LOT this year, he changed it in 16
-> Even though Steph is a much better scorer, CP3 is a top scorer in the league regardless.

This is the sort of help he had:
Without CP3 (RS): -11.5 NRTG
Without Steph (RS): +3.3 NRTG

As we can see, CP3 had worse help than Steph, with this type of terrible help, he led the team to:

A better ORTG with a worse situation (+6.8 to +6.0)
STILL the 2nd best NRTG/SRS/MOV itl right behind Steph's Warriors (remember, he had far better support

With this type of support, I'm surprised he made it to this far in the RS.

Let's check out his scoring:
14-15 CP3 at scoring (If you guys know where to find PPP stats, or more playtypes for 14-15, pls do tell me so I can add it here, I only have FG% )

FG% on Drives: 0.493
FG% on C&S: 0.437
FG% on pull-up: 0.474
FG% on mid-range: 0.495
FG% from corner 3: 0.354
FG% above the break 3: 0.405

14-15 Curry at scoring

FG% on Drives: 0.500
FG% on C&S: 0.463
FG% on pull-up: 0.432
FG% on mid-range: 0.411
FG% from corner 3: 0.573
FG% above the break 3: 0.429


I WILL note, this all puts Steph quite a bit above CP3 at scoring, but if Steph really transcends CP3 in scoring, I don't see it at all in the data here. It is a LOT closer than people suggest. Here is the tracking for those who want to see the eye test (shows how good an injured CP3's PM is, also his scoring)

Spoiler:

Since I got CP3 on my TOP 3 player of the year and Offensive player of the year. I will post my tracking of his offensive game in the playoffs

Chris paul Game 7 against the SPURS in 2015 Offense only

Watch on YouTube

;t=5766s

Playmaking
-DTOs ( Defender take out )
-EDTOs ( Effective defender taken out )
- ADAs ( Additional defender affected )
-Double
-Triple
-Création ~ R’Creation ( Rim )/ P’Creation ( Prerimeter )
-SC ( Screen assist ) ( GHOST SCREEN DO NOT COUNT )
- EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) for creation or when the defense is attach on his presence
- RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) for creation or when the defense is attach on his presence
- BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) for creation or when the defense is attach on his presence
Scoring
-FGA
-FGM
-M ( midrange )
-P ( Post play )
-R ( Rim : lay up / dunk )
-T ( 3pt )
-PB ( Putback )
-FTA + FTM
-OCT ( Offensive Contest )
-OUCT ( Offensive Uncontested )
- FD ( Foul draw by defender )
( P - Possession. If your team get the Oreb or foul and your team get control of the ball it will be counted as same possession )
Q1
P1 = 3.20 – CP bring ball up pass to JJ and run to the paint. He get the ball back at the elbow then Jordan screen for him. CP pump fake and hit a midrange on parker ( FGA1 FGM1 M1 OCT1 )
P2 = 4.00 – blake attempt a fast break lay up but get foul. CP was on the clipper side
P3 = 5.24 – Blake fast break lob to barnes but he missed. CP was on the clipper side
P4 = 6.13 – Cp PNR with Jordan. He drive to Duncan blocking lane so he bounce pass to open blake at ft line which he make the shot ( DTOs1-2-3 EDTOs1 ADAs1 P’creation1 EPDL1 )
P5 = 6.50 – CP top keys see JJ running off ball so he pass but kawhi get a tight contest make JJ miss
P6 = 7.16 – CP top keys pass to blake with kawhi on him. The pass is too high for kawhi to intercept so blake get the ball and drive for a foul ( CLIPPER BALL )
P6 = 7.40 – CP run to top keys with Jordan screen for him and he pass to JJ open at 3PT line cause Jordan make a moving screen on parker but JJ missed ( DTOs4-5 ADAs2 P’creation2 RPDL1 )
P7 = 8.22 – CP get the ball from JJ and drive pass parker with Jordan screening for him and attempt a midrange ( FGA2 M2 OCT2 )
P8 = 8.51 – JJ have the ball then pass to cp but CP set back. JJ drive kick to CP. CP pass to blake who get double team so he pass to barnes for open 3pt
P9 = 9.54 – CP boxing for position with Parker around the court and Blake hit a jumper on Duncan
P10 = 10.18 – Blake take the ball fast break b fake drive to double team and bounce pass to Barner for open 3pt but MISSED
P11 = 10.43 – CP top of the keys pass to barnes open at the corner cause Jordan was screening kawhi away ( DTOs6-7 ADAs3 P’creation3 EPDL2 )
P12 = 11.14 – fast break CP pass the ball to barnes at the logo. Barnes get pick by green so he pull up 3pt but missed
P13 = 11.50 -Cp get the ball and attempt to beat parker off the dribble but blake come screen for him. Parker foul the screen ( CLIPPER BALL )
P14 = 12.17 – JJ find barnes at the corner who drive lay up
P15 = 13.05 – CP pass to JJ who drive and kick back. Blake come GHOST screen and roll so CP who get double pass to blake who pass to JJ. JJ pumk fake and miss the long 2pt. Jordan get the OREB and pass to barnes who lay it up ( DTOs8-9 EDTOs2 R’creation1 RPDL2 )
P16 = 15.00 – CP on the logo with parker on him Jordan and Glen come screen. Cp Drive to a double pass to glen hit a long 2pt ( DTOs10-11-12 EDTOs3-4 P’Creation4 RPDL3 )
P17 = 16.35 - CP on the top Keys with parker on him Jordan and Glen come screen. Then drive to Duncan blocking lane then pass to glen who didn’t attempt a shot but make bad pass TOV ( DTOs13-14-15-16 EDTOs5-6 ADAs4 P’Creation5 RPDL4 )
P18 =17.10 – CP in transition beat Mills off the dribble and hit a open 3pt ( FGA3 FGM2 T1 OUCT1 )
Q2
P19 = 30.30 – CP offball top of keys with kawhi on him. Crawford attempt a long 2pt but missed Jordan is there to putback and get foul
P20 = 31.36 – CP bring ball up full court then pass to crawford when kawhi press him on the drive. Crawford pass the ball to blake who pump fake and get foul in the paint
P21 = 33.04 – CP bring ball up get press by kawhi Jordan come screen so CP drive away. Kawhi slip was screen at press CP. Jordan another screen on kawhi then CP drive pass to blake who pass to barnes at the post ( DTOs17-18-19 EDTOs7 ADAs5 RPDL5 )
P22 = 33.26 – CP on transition get the ball kick out ( CLIPPER BALL )
P23 = 33.50 – CP get ball hand off to blake cause Kawhi pressing. Get the ball back and make a great pass to blake for a open lay up cause boris try to gamble and make Blake open ( DTOs20 EDTOs8 R’creation2 EPDL3 )
P24 = 34.11 – CP pass the ball to JJ for a transition 3pt but miss
P25 = 35.48 – CP pass to JJ. JJ drive with Jordan help screen then GREEN foul the screener ( CLIPPER BALL )
P26 = 36.07 – CP pass to jj who beat his man off the dribble and attempt a shot but Green come back in time to snatch the ball out JJ shot attempt
P27 = 37.12 – CP on logo with kawhi barnes and glen come screen. CP drive to the elbow get double then pass to open glen who drive lay up but missed Jordan is there to clean up ( Double1 DTOs21-22-23 EDTOs9 ADAs6 P’creation6 RPDL6 )
P28 = 38.22 – Cp bring ball up get press by kawhi so he pass to Jordan and get the ball back. Kawhi too physical and fouls CP ( FD1 FTA1-2 FTM1-2 )
P29 = 39.34 – Barnes screen kawhi for CP. CP drive dribble around the court to beat out kawhi and he get double team so he bounce pass to Jordan but the pass is to slow so Duncan close up force Jordan to pass. Duncan kick ball ( CLIPPER BALL ) ( DOUBLE2 BPDL1 )
P30 = 40.07 – CP pass to JJ then get ball back with kawhi on him jordantry screen but kawhi get pass. Cp attempt drive with kawhi on him see parker overcommitted so he pass to barnes for a 3pt but missed ( DTOs24-25 EDTOs10 P’creation7 RPDL7 )
P31 = 40.53 – CP bring ball up bounce pass to glen on top keys. Glen pass to crawford and run a PNR but fail
P32 = 42.17 – CP beat kawhi off the dribble to the paint and step back midrange on his face ( FGA4 FGM3 M3 OCT3 )
P33 = 42.40 – CP pump fake then hand off to glen who give back and screen for CP. Then get double pass to glen but bad pass make Duncan close out and contest the shot ( Double3 DTOs26-27 EDTOs11 BPDL2 )
P34 = 43.07 – CP drive on kawhi and tiago come double. CP pass to glen who cut and lay up ( Double4 DTOs28-29 EDTOs12 R’creation3 EPDL4 )
P35 = 44.10 – cp BRING BALL UP but Jordan get foul off ball for FT
P35 = 45.06 – Glen get the OREB from Jordan miss FT pass to JJ who pass to crawford for a 3pt
P36 = 46.00 – Jordan got hacked for FT
P37 = 47.15 – CP get the ball try to shoot to beat the beezer but didn’t get it out in time
Q3
P38 = 48.02 – CP get the ball pass to blake at ft line. Blake fake drive and pass to barnes at 3pt line MISSED
P39 = 48.20 – CP transition bounce pass to blake at the logo. Blake post up Duncan no look pass to barnes who cut and reset the ball to blake. Blake get double team in the post pass to open CP on 3pt line for a 3pt ( FGA5 FGM4 T2 OCT4 )
P40 = 49.15 – CP at the logo with parker on him pass to JJ who break Green ankle and attempt a shot
P41 = 49.40 – CP get the ball pass to barnes in transition but kawhi is there to stop him. So CP re get the ball. Make a PNR with Blake. Nearly get double so he pass out but the pass get deflected by parker ( Clipper ball ) ( BPDL3 )
P42 = 50.15 – blake get ball pass to barnes who cut for open dunk and ONE
P43 = 51.38 – CP drive on parker and kick the ball to blake then he screen tiago ( SC1 )
P44 = 52.12 – CP transition pull up from 3pt ( FGA6 FGM5 T3 OCT5 )
P45 = 52.45 – CP bring ball up in transition blake screen parker so CP pull up fro, 3pt but missed ( FGA7 T4 OUCT2 )
P46 = 53.16 – CP bring ball up bounce pass to blake who post up tiago. Blake miss the jumper
P47 = 53.37 – CP on transition pass to blake but balek get pick up so CP retake the ball. CP drive on tiago and get foul on top keys ( CLIPPER BALL )
P48 = 54.14 – CP on top keys pass to crawford who drive and got block by green
P49 = 54.30 – CP pass to blake who pass to open JJ in transition
P50 = 55.09 – CP blow by parker get pick by Duncan. So he pass to blake. Blake pull up on Duncan face ( DTOs29-30 ADAs7 RPDL8 )
P51 = 55.48 – Cp waiting in corner
P52 = 56.14 – CP get the ball at logo by JJ who earlier try to dribble around the ft area. CP drive try to bounce pass for crawford at corner but bad pass got steal ( BPDL4 )
P53 = 56.26 – CP have the ball in transition try to drive but the lane is too compacted. So he pass to jj who just get to half court. JJ get foul ( Clipper ball )
P53 = 57.03 – CP waiting in corner while blake dunk on boris head
P54 = 57.30 – CP in corner when Crawford TOV
P 55 = 58.05 – CP bring ball up pass to JJ who pass to blake and try to cut but get foul off ball ( Clipper ball but CP go rest )
P56 = 106.38 – CP bring ball up in transition to beat the clock. Get pass half court and Pull up at the STAPLES CENTER logo for a 3PT at the BUZZER ( FGA8 FGM6 T5 OUCT3 )
Q4
P57 = 108.10 – CP box with parker for position at 3pt line. Clipper got foul off ball ( CLIPPER BALL )
P57 = 108.30 – CP get ball with parker on him then switch with Blake to be on tiago and pass to blake who got a mismatch. Blake get double pass back for CP to pull up on tiago face ( FGA9 FGM7 T6 OCT6 )
P58 = 109.24 – CP at FT line screen for blake but blake got steal after ( SC2 )
P59 = 109.35 – CP pass to blake who run fast break. Blake pass to barnes for a dunk
P60 = 110.16 – CP drive pass to barnes who was open cause CP drive. But barnes pass to crawford who drive for a floater ( DTOs31-32-33 EDTOs13-14 P’creation8 RPDL9 )
P61 = 111.42 – CP try to beat parker off drbble then switch on tiago then parker come double so he pass to blake on the paint but Blake TRAVEL ( DTOs34-35 EDTOs15 R’Creation4 EPDL5 )
P62 = 112.28 – CP drive on parker with Jordan screening. CP see Duncan on the lane so he pass to blake. Get ball back pull up 2pt on nel face ( FGA10 FGM8 M4 OCT7 )
P63 = 113.20 – CP bring ball up pass to Jordan at top keys and pass to blake who cut for a layup and ONE
P64 =115.05 _ CP bring ball up pass to blake. Then blake run action with crawford and get foul ( CLIPPER BALL )
P64 =115.39 – CP get ball pass to Crawford then to blake but got steal by green
P65 = 116.20 – CP bring ball up fast break 4 on 3 pass to JJ who pass to crawford fro open 3pt MISSED
P66 = 117.19 – CP bring ball up pass to blake at the post. Who then pass back to open CP cause Jordan screen for him. CP drive pass but get deflected ( Clipper ball )
P66 = 118.00 – Jordan get hacked
P67 = 119.10 – CP on top keys then Jordan come screen green. So Cp drive jump shot at long 2pt but missed. Parker get Dreb but CP pock it out off his gand to blake then parker foul blake (FGA11 M5 OUCT4 )
P68 = 120.45 – Duncan elbow CP on the head so jj IS THE ONE bring ball up in transition. JJ PNP with blake for a 3pt
P69 = 121.38 – CP in corner when JJ pump fake and hit another 3pt on green head
P70 = 122.20 – CP in corner try to move offball in paint but got press by kawhi so he comeback. Blake iso drive on Duncan for a foul
P71 = 124.54 – CP in corner then Blake drive make CP open. Blake pass the ball to CP who drive and attempt a tough layup MISSED ( FGA12 R1 OCT8 )
P72 = 125.10 – CP in transition drive pass to JJ but too far so JJ slow to get the ball and kawhi close up. JJ then drive to a double team and pass to barnes for a contested 3pt ( .DTOs36 BPDL5 )
P73 = 125.52 – CP PNR with blake then drive to double team of Duncan Green when pass to rolling blake who got block by green while attempting a dunk ( Double5 DTOs37-38-39 EDTOs16-17 R’creation5 EPDL6 )
P74 = 127.20 – CP drive bounce pass to blake too low blake have trouble to get the ball so he get press and pass to crawford for a layup ( BPDL6 )
P75 = 128.00 – CP bring ball up try to waste the shot clock. Then run PNR with blake. Blake screen and roll but got stop by parker who rotate on the lane. CP pass anyway. Blake get ball fake pass so parker run to crawford and he hit a long midrange on Duncan who close up MISSED but barnes get rebound TIMEOUT ( DTOs40-41-42 ADAs8 EDTOs18 P’creation9 RPDL10 ) ( CLIPPER BALL )
P76 = 130.00 – CP top keys PNR with blake then drive. CP then pull up on DUNCAN FOR A FOUL ( FD2 FTA3-4 FTM3-4 )
P77 = 134.42 – Blake hand off the ball to CP. CP at the logo get pick by green. Then he drive on green :green stumble back; so Duncan come contest but CP layup anyway FOR THE WINNNNN ( FGA13 FGM9 R2 OCT9 )

RESUME CHRIS PAUL GAME 7 AGAINST THE SPURS 2015
Total possession when CP was in the game = 77
Total possession that CP have action in both on/off ball = 65
Total Possession of play CP didn’t affect or didn’t have the opportunity to affect = 12
Playmaking
-DTOs - 42
-EDTOs - 18
-Double - 5
-ADAs - 8
-Triple - 0
-Création - 13
~ R’Creation ( Rim ) - 4
- P’Creation ( Prerimeter ) -9
-SC ( Screen ) - 2
- EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) - 6
- RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) - 10
- BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) - 6
Scoring
-FGA - 13
-FGM - 9
-M ( midrange ) -5 ( 3/5 )
-P ( Post play ) – 0
-R ( Rim : lay up / dunk ) – 2 ( 1/2 )
-T ( 3pt ) – 6 ( 5/6 )
-PB ( Putback ) – 0
-FTA - 4
+ FTM – 4
-OCT ( Offensive Contest ) - 9
-OUCT ( Offensive Uncontested ) - 4
- FD ( Foul draw by defender ) - 2

Since I'm too lazy to make a better argument (I will edit it out though, to make it better) I'll leave it here for people who want to discuss this with me.

NOTE: This is not to diminish Steph by any means. I have this version of CP3 as a top 25 peak ever, right behind guys like Harden/Embiid/KD.

[tsherkin]

I WILL note, this all puts Steph quite a bit above CP3 at scoring, but if Steph really transcends CP3 in scoring, I don't see it at all in the data here.

That's a hard sell for the little guy who never dealt with anything like Steph's usage, don't you think? Paul never really evinced the ability to elevate his scoring into Steph-like volume territory.

[Top10alltime]

I WILL note, this all puts Steph quite a bit above CP3 at scoring, but if Steph really transcends CP3 in scoring, I don't see it at all in the data here.

That's a hard sell for the little guy who never dealt with anything like Steph's usage, don't you think? Paul never really evinced the ability to elevate his scoring into Steph-like volume territory.

I got that Steph is a tier above CP3 as a scorer, but it is nowhere near how Steph fanboys say it is, like 5 tiers above.

[lessthanjake]

Well, now that I think about it, I do think CP3 is above Steph this season. I'm going to explain why here (and hoping to move some people to put CP3 at 2nd).

CP3 > Steph because
-> he is far better at defence, anyone who disagrees never watched basketball in their life
-> he is the best playmaker in the league by far, much better than Steph due to him going on-ball (where he is mid) a LOT this year, he changed it in 16
-> Even though Steph is a much better scorer, CP3 is a top scorer in the league regardless.

This is the sort of help he had:
Without CP3 (RS): -11.5 NRTG
Without Steph (RS): +3.3 NRTG

As we can see, CP3 had worse help than Steph, with this type of terrible help, he led the team to:

A better ORTG with a worse situation (+6.8 to +6.0)
STILL the 2nd best NRTG/SRS/MOV itl right behind Steph's Warriors (remember, he had far better support

With this type of support, I'm surprised he made it to this far in the RS.

Chris Paul did not have worse *offensive* support that year. The Warriors were really good, but they were a very defensively slanted roster, while the Clippers were a very offensively talented team. You’re pointing to raw on-off data to prove that Steph’s offensive support was better, but the Warriors staggered their best players more. The Clippers played their whole starting lineup together *a lot* that year. And Chris Paul played over 2,000 minutes on the court with every starter, while Draymond is the only player Steph played over 2,000 minutes with (though Klay was close). This difference in lineups is surely a good bit of why Steph’s ORAPM and all-in-one offensive data is better than Chris Paul’s, despite the raw data you’re pointing to.

And, overall, as per a post I made on the first page of this thread, impact data (including offense and defense) and box data clearly favors Steph. Of course, Steph also won the title, while Chris Paul got injured in the playoffs and lost in the second round. It’s not a difficult choice between them.

Another little point: Steph is absolutely not “mid” on the ball. He is fantastic on the ball (watch the video I posted on the first page of this thread to see how much Steph broke the Cavs defense in the Finals on the ball). Putting him off the ball is good because he’s so good off the ball that you can put someone else on the ball that isn’t much of an off-ball threat (for instance Draymond) and it might actually maximize the overall pressure the team is putting on the defense. That doesn’t mean he’s not incredible with the ball. He is. It’s just basically an application of comparative advantage.

[tsherkin]

I WILL note, this all puts Steph quite a bit above CP3 at scoring, but if Steph really transcends CP3 in scoring, I don't see it at all in the data here.

That's a hard sell for the little guy who never dealt with anything like Steph's usage, don't you think? Paul never really evinced the ability to elevate his scoring into Steph-like volume territory.

I got that Steph is a tier above CP3 as a scorer, but it is nowhere near how Steph fanboys say it is, like 5 tiers above.

I mean, he really is more than a tier above CP.

There's a LARGE difference between an efficient 18-20 ppg scorer and a mega-efficient 25-30 ppg scorer. There is no universe where Chris Paul was winning a scoring title (let alone two) in the NBA...

[AEnigma]

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Draymond Green
2. Kawhi Leonard
3. Deandre Jordan

Clear top two in my eyes. Kawhi had one of the best wing defensive seasons ever, and while in other years that has not necessarily been enough to crack the ballot — my condolences to 2004 Artest — competition this season is thin at the top. It is the first year I think Kawhi clearly outpaced Duncan as the team’s most important defender, and although I think Draymond should have won the official award for anchoring a better defence and playing notably more, when factoring in the boost from the 2014 Finals, it is not an egregious regular season pick. In the postseason though, it is not even a question between the two.

That leaves third place. Several notables missed time (Tony Allen, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah, Serge Ibaka, Andrew Bogut, Lebron), played limited minutes (Gobert, Iguodala, Andre Bogut and Tony Allen again), or had uninspiring seasons (Marc Gasol). Tyson Chandler is a thought, but I would have wanted to see a more significant defensive turnaround from the Mavericks. The Hawks were collectively good and well-coached, so this year at least I am not sure Horford or Millsap qualify. Do not think the Spurs deserve two, so Duncan is out. That leaves me with the first-team centre and official third place award finisher, who played over 2800 minutes and was the league’s top defensive rebounder. Not an inspiring pick, but in this case I would need to be a lot more confident in his value stemming from his offence in order to pick against him among a collectively flawed third place field, and personally I always felt there was some weird Chris Paul misattribution going on with that.

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Steph Curry
2. Chris Paul
3. Lebron James
HM: James Harden

On the Paul discourse, it is certainly closer than often portrayed.

You are presented two players: Player A and B in the PS

Player A
PS On/Off-8.6
3-year playoff PlayVal peak-1.3
3-year Backpicks BPM Peak of 6.9
3-year AuPM/g Peak-5.7
3-year Peak LEBRON-6.89

Player B
PS On/Off-14.7
3-year playoff PlayVal Peak-2
3- year Backpicks BPM Peak of 7.4
3-year AuPM/g Peak-5.2
3-year Peak LEBRON-7.40

Here’s the kicker: Player A is Curry and Player B is Paul. Now, I’m not saying Paul had a better peak than Curry, but it’s interesting to note that, statistically, he compares favorably in playoff performance. While Curry made deeper playoff runs, Paul actually faced tougher playoff defenses from 2012-2016 than Curry ever did. Not only did CP3 not get to boost his numbers against weaker defenses, but he still performed at an elite level, demonstrating the quality of an all-time great who consistently faced strong opponents.

Paul’s team offenses were excellent, posting a playoff offensive relative efficiency of +5.7 from 2013-2017, with a three-year peak of +7.7 (2015-2017). For comparison, Curry’s Warriors during the Durant era (2017-2019) peaked at +7.5.

That all said, I do not think Paul’s team was appreciably worse than Steph’s to justify the difference in results. We can ignore the bench — the Clippers were indeed severely disadvantaged there — but Steph led better lineups, performed better against their common opponent, and did not cost his team by missing games. I do not see it as remotely tenable to argue Chris Paul was disadvantaged by his roster when his roster outscored the Rockets on the road in the two games Paul missed, went 13-7 without him the previous year, and with Blake Griffin in the lineup went 29-24 without him from 2012-17. Paul’s series against the Spurs was stupendous, but it does not overwrite the gulf in actual success.

I am cooler on Lebron’s offence this year. While he gave us a nice little lesson in how scoring efficiency is not as inherently valuable as most seem to assume, this is still ultimately a version of Lebron struggling with a bad back and broken shot all year. I considered leaving him off this ballot, but in the same vein as feeling that you need to ignore results to entertain Paul over Steph, I think you would need to ignore results to at all entertain Harden over Lebron:

2015 Cleveland In/Out

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lebron OUT (13 G. 3-10)

-8.8 SRS, -4.4 Offense, +5.8 Defense

Spoiler:

99.7 ORTG, 111.1 DRTG, -10.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Lebron IN (69 G, 50-19)

+6.5 SRS, +8.5 Offense, +1.1 Defense

Spoiler:

114.2 ORTG, 106.3 DRTG, +7.3 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lebron OUT | Irving, Love IN (9 G, 3-6)

-5.1 SRS, -0.7 Offense, +5.8 Defense

Spoiler:

103.6 ORTG, 112.2 DRTG, -6.0 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Lebron IN | Irving, Love IN (60 G, 46-14)

+7.6 SRS, +9.3 Offense, +0.6 Defense

Spoiler:

115.0 ORTG, 105.8 DRTG, +8.7 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lebron, Mozgov OUT | Irving, Love IN (5 G, 1-4)

-6.0 SRS, -2.8 Offense, +4.4 Defense

Spoiler:

101.6 ORTG, 111.1 DRTG, -7.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Lebron OUT | Irving, Love, Mozgov IN (4 G, 2-2)

-3.9 SRS, +1.9 Offense, +6.4 Defense

Spoiler:

106.2 ORTG, 113.6 DRTG, -4.5 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Lebron IN | Irving, Love, Mozgov IN (33 G, 29-4)

+11.4 SRS, +11.0 Offense, -1.5 Defense

Spoiler:

116.6 ORTG, 103.4 DRTG, +12.5 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So that third In/Out set (^^^) is essentially the "healthy"/post-break Lebron set. They managed to sustain higher than an 11 SRS despite the defense dropping off, Blatt resting the starters/Lebron in the 4th quarter (they straight up threw a home game), coasting, etc. In the first 28 games of those 33, they were at a +13.4 SRS (25-3), last 5 they were at +0.2 SRS (4-1), so take that however you like.

Oh my.

I posted on my blog that I think that the post-LeBreak Cavs are playing better basketball than any Miami stretch save the 27 game streak. Would you say this is accurate? Those numbers are mind-boggling.

On NBA.com right now, Warriors starting 5 has a net rating of 19.6 while Cleveland's +Mozgov and Smith is at +19.3. Difference is Golden State's lineup with Iggy>Barnes is at +28.3 net rating . Cavs have no such trump card.

Like with 2014, I do not have strong enough opinions on RPoY to issue a formal vote. In 2015 I probably would have picked Lebron without much question, but with hindsight, Curry’s season was hardly some one-off stroke of fortune, so I do not see cause to pile on to this result. Lebron was the best player, and my enduring memory of the season is the heroics he went through to give the Cavaliers a 2-1 lead, but there were certainly points in the season where it leaned more toward Steph, so I am fine calling it as 1a Lebron, 1b Steph.

[BusywithBball]

Okay i say I don’t like just saying like fact how things are. I think they posted really useful info and even if you think it’s wrong you shouldn’t just ignore it because whatever.

Lebron score surprised me too though. I didn’t think he was a top 4 playmaker still. Both are great ofc and this is a tough year for sure. I think because of the winning and way warrior changed the sport i have to say Steph but it close. Lebron was awesome for sure and his finals was amazing.

We have a great finals now too

You didn’t think that LeBron was a top 4 playmaker over the course of 2018-2022? That’s very close to his best five-year timespan in terms of assists per game (second only to the nearby 2017-2021 span)! And it includes arguably his two best playmaking years (2018 and 2020). Would be a pretty remarkable indictment of his playmaking if he wasn’t even a top 4 playmaker in that span.

I just thought Lebron one man style fed him assists just for having ball alot. But maybe I’m biased. There’s the statistics saying Lebron was top playmaker here too so I might have to rethink. I still say Steph for this year because he wins and changes the game but I guess both style of playmaking works.

[BusywithBball]

I must say I think Steph defense is better than people think. I know he’s small but he has quick hands and was agile and had good positioning. He picked up a good amount of steals too and was in the right spot for rebounds. I’m not saying Steph is great defender but I think in his younger days he could be decent.

[Elpolo_14]

Okay i say I don’t like just saying like fact how things are. I think they posted really useful info and even if you think it’s wrong you shouldn’t just ignore it because whatever.

Lebron score surprised me too though. I didn’t think he was a top 4 playmaker still. Both are great ofc and this is a tough year for sure. I think because of the winning and way warrior changed the sport i have to say Steph but it close. Lebron was awesome for sure and his finals was amazing.

We have a great finals now too

You didn’t think that LeBron was a top 4 playmaker over the course of 2018-2022? That’s very close to his best five-year timespan in terms of assists per game (second only to the nearby 2017-2021 span)! And it includes arguably his two best playmaking years (2018 and 2020). Would be a pretty remarkable indictment of his playmaking if he wasn’t even a top 4 playmaker in that span.

I just thought Lebron one man style fed him assists just for having ball alot. But maybe I’m biased. There’s the statistics saying Lebron was top playmaker here too so I might have to rethink. I still say Steph for this year because he wins and changes the game but I guess both style of playmaking works.

Funny how this 5 year time span presented by Jake isn't lebron highest usage percentage but you still find the way to discredit Bron because of his style of ball dominant ( so if he stat pad Assist due to usage why in his early career with more usage have less APG number than this time span? ).
Just going by "Bron have ball a lot so he can up his assist" isn't really a way to contradicts the option to push lebron out the top 4 in term of playmaking ( when his assist number isn't that outline compare to Usage rate ). And just to be clear APG / Total Assist isn't a good way to measure a player ability to playmake ( to make his team have easier or more opportunities to generate point ). If we go by Assist alone John Stockton would be the best or 2nd best playmaker ever or if we go by more usage = bad then Luka is the assist padding and not an elite playmaker ( which is absolutely FALSE ). Just like how you have Steph above Bron in term of playmaking this year ( total valid takes ) we can see that playmaker can be operate in many way both on-ball / off ball - in a system/scheme run by team or in a sole engine organizer situation and a play style involving to the the ball in the hand of the best player do not make it less impressive in any way.

The ability to manipulate the defense and bring more quality per possession basis or to set your own pace to opponent is the keys of a good playmaker ( no matter if he HAVE THE BALL A LOT ). Just by the defensive attention Bron attract and collapse/rotation he force the opposite team to make each time he get to his position make him an all time PM. Combine it With his floor operator as Facilitor/distributeur to a high level to create separation for player on his team to have room to make their own shot/play easier than usual.
Bron still have great traits off the ball to help his team offense when someone else is initiating the offense on-ball ( great screen setting / elite slasher and positioning control )

He can be 1-4 it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of PM because people can Value different aspects than I do .But out of that tier is ridiculous

I want an argument/ reasoning / Criteria / point of view to why he isn't top 4 ( WHO is the four above him in your eyes )