2022 NBA Draft - Prospects Discussion

CharityStripe34 · Post #1041 » by **CharityStripe34** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:51 pm

Turnovers and transition D is a big part of it. Entry passes take time and are not easy to execute...then you have defenses swarming and the shot clock winding down, it seems to lead to a lot of turnovers....and now your slower bigs are underneath the basket while the opponent is racing the other way 5 on 3.

I too like the idea of going bigger, but you need smart guys who take care of the ball and will bust a gut to get back on defense.

Twin Towers approach is unlocked if both bigs are mobile, athletic and have a good motor to run the floor. Semi-transition can lead to early post-ups against mismatches as well. Post-ups are more prevalent in the half court setting for playoffs especially, when the game generally slows. It helps create easy offensive sets and double-teams. You are completely correct, though, that entry-passes are also becoming a lost art and there are times where maybe 1-2 guys on the Bucks can execute that properly and with timing (as are pocket passes).

Said second big next to Freak would have to be athletic, dedicated on both sides and intelligent with high-energy.

Licensed to Il · Post #1042 » by **Licensed to Il** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:54 pm

German Athens wrote:
Licensed to Il wrote:I think in a vacuum what you are saying is very true. Its an argument I've made for two years as to the importance of keeping Brook on the roster. But the two things that really work against "going big" are pace and refereeing. Even if you are patient on offense, find mismatches, and really good at converting normal field goals that takes a lot more time and thus you get fewer opportunities than the team jacking up a three in the first 10 seconds. You are getting less of something that is less valuable, while your opponent is getting more of something that is more valuable. The other reason, refereeing, I mean how many times in the last two playoffs have we anticipated a major advantage with Brook going against some 6'8 scrub and then the refs just whistle him with two junk fouls in the first quarter and now that's off the table? I do think the league is intentionally doing everything in its power to get teams to go small, fast, and chasing >115 points a game.

But I'm with you and Ron, basketball always evolves, and there is going to be a counter swing. The days of a center getting 15 post touches a game and your power forward getting 15+ on the block are gone. But it will never not be an advantage to be tall.

Head to head, though, the opponent playing at a faster pace doesn’t get more possessions than you. If you take over 20 seconds to get a shot and they take 10, it’s still going to be about the same by the end of the game.

I think pace matters in that you can generate good looks in transition and early offense that aren’t always there once the defense is properly set.

The refereeing part I agree with, and it frustrates me quite a bit at times.

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You touch on something that I have been toying with for a long time, and that is that we already have one of the best advantages in the entire league, which is Giannis in transition. So we are in a cooking contest, and we have an ingredient that no one else has. Now the right question to ask, is "what do we do with the rest of the possessions" or "what are the most complimentary ingredients?"

This is why I would love to see us play big as much as possible: the more blocks and rebounds we get (a product of going big) the more we feed that transition advantage. I think Bud and Horst have thought through a lot of this stuff. I'd love to have another 3 and D wing that can make a play when the open look isn't there, but then again, so could every team.

Gianstoppable · Post #1043 » by **Gianstoppable** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:56 pm

MVP2110 wrote:I'll say NBADraft.net nails our pick again but I'll guess it's a trade down. 24 & George Hill to Indiana for 31, 58, and a future 2nd.

I'd be upset with that move. If we are trading #24 and Hill we shouldn't be aiming for 3 2nds, IMO

BUCKnation · Post #1044 » by **BUCKnation** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:00 pm

I didn't realize Braun had fallen so far, I recall he was in the top 15 no less than a month or two ago. Give me that dude.

Ruben Quevedo · Post #1045 » by **Ruben Quevedo** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:13 pm

CharityStripe34 wrote:
Turnovers and transition D is a big part of it. Entry passes take time and are not easy to execute...then you have defenses swarming and the shot clock winding down, it seems to lead to a lot of turnovers....and now your slower bigs are underneath the basket while the opponent is racing the other way 5 on 3.

I too like the idea of going bigger, but you need smart guys who take care of the ball and will bust a gut to get back on defense.

Twin Towers approach is unlocked if both bigs are mobile, athletic and have a good motor to run the floor. Semi-transition can lead to early post-ups against mismatches as well. Post-ups are more prevalent in the half court setting for playoffs especially, when the game generally slows. It helps create easy offensive sets and double-teams. You are completely correct, though, that entry-passes are also becoming a lost art and there are times where maybe 1-2 guys on the Bucks can execute that properly and with timing (as are pocket passes).

Said second big next to Freak would have to be athletic, dedicated on both sides and intelligent with high-energy.

Yeah I agree with you. Having 2 bigs with that sort of ability and mobility would be a huge advantage in today's game.

skones · Post #1046 » by **skones** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:22 pm

I'm not as down as Kessler as some. I think watching Brook lumber out there has turned some folks off despite him being effective for us for years. Kessler is MUCH MUCH better in pursuit. He's far more mobile than he's being given credit for. For a guy his size, he actually moves his feet really really well because he's always twitchy and always on his toes. Shooting is a concern, but his feel on the defensive end us stupid impressive for 20 years old.

Wouldn't be a LFG pick for me, but wouldn't be a sky is falling situation either.

Emunney touched on it earlier in this thread with trends. This league will become cyclical defensively. The team that zigs the best when everyone else is zagging will reap the rewards. We happen to have a freak of nature with size playing for us. There's an opportunity to double down on that. Giannis's general ability to switch and guard on the perimeter is extremely overrated IMO, he's at his best when he's roaming. Going full switchy switch bois mitigates what he does best. The easier path is just to bludgeon teams.

I have a hard time looking at GS and thinking we wouldn't have just run through them because of their lack of size.

emunney · Post #1047 » by **emunney** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:38 pm

skones wrote:I'm not as down as Kessler as some. I think watching Brook lumber out there has turned some folks off despite him being effective for us for years. Kessler is MUCH MUCH better in pursuit. He's far more mobile than he's being given credit for. For a guy his size, he actually moves his feet really really well because he's always twitchy and always on his toes. Shooting is a concern, but his feel on the defensive end us stupid impressive for 20 years old.

Wouldn't be a LFG pick for me, but wouldn't be a sky is falling situation either.

Emunney touched on it earlier in this thread with trends. This league will become cyclical defensively. The team that zigs the best when everyone else is zagging will reap the rewards. We happen to have a freak of nature with size playing for us. There's an opportunity to double down on that. Giannis's general ability to switch and guard on the perimeter is extremely overrated IMO, he's at his best when he's roaming. Going full switchy switch bois mitigates what he does best. The easier path is just to bludgeon teams.

I have a hard time looking at GS and thinking we wouldn't have just run through them because of their lack of size.

Also people are forgetting that we didn't win the title because we were awesome at switching so much as that we just physically beat the living **** out of teams. Like we played a small ball C at SG, and when the other ECF team tried to hide their dinky guard on him, he crashed from the corner and put him in the net.

FrieAaron · Post #1048 » by **FrieAaron** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:44 pm

I've been staying out of this thread because I wanted to try something different (and insane) this year. I've always wondered how much of my rankings in the past has just been a result of the feedback loop using already ordered lists and filtering it myself. So this year I grabbed a top 50 list, sorted it alphabetically and then ranked every player myself without having any idea what their consensus ranking was by the draft experts and talking heads. This is especially easy for me because I don't pay a ton of attention to college basketball outside of the tournament, so while I recognized some of the names I still had no idea where they were expected to fall (Hey, Johnny Juzang. I remember him being talked about in the tournament! Does that mean he's projected to be a high pick? Turns out...no).

I knew this was going to result in a ton of hot takes that look extremely foolish in hindsight, and it did. But to my surprise my top 5 ended up being what seems to be the consensus (The one exception to my "knew nothing" rule was Chet Holmgren. It ended up being impossible to not hear his name come up as a lottery pick).

Full list below for those interested, but here are some highlights of those I massively overrated, underrated, and ended up more or less the same spot on the rankings I looked at afterwards. Number in parentheses denotes how much higher or lower I ranked them compared to the consensus mocks I looked at.

Top 5 I most overrated: Jabari Walker (+35), Wendell Moore (+21), Dalen Terry (+18), Bryce McGowens (+18), Iverson Molinar (+18).

Top 5 most underrated: Ousmane Dieng (-34), Tari Eason (-27), Jeremy Sochan (-26), Ochai Agbaji (-20), Jaylin Williams (-20)

Top 5 closest rankings in first round: Blake Wesley (0.17), Kennedy Chandler (0.67), Christian Braun (1), Jaden Hardy (1), TyTy Washington (1.29)

Thank you for listening to my Ted Talk. My full ranking:

Note: This list only goes to 49 because Leonard Miller pulled out (hehehe)

skones · Post #1049 » by **skones** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:48 pm

emunney wrote:
Also people are forgetting that we didn't win the title because we were awesome at switching so much as that we just physically beat the living **** out of teams. Like we played a small ball C at SG, and when the other ECF team tried to hide their dinky guard on him, he crashed from the corner and put him in the net.

Or that we took Boston to 7 with Middleton out and everyone shooting like ass because we dragged them down into the mud and said, "lol, play with us."

emunney · Post #1050 » by **emunney** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:50 pm

Read on Twitter

Annoying

CharityStripe34 · Post #1051 » by **CharityStripe34** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:53 pm

emunney wrote:
skones wrote:I'm not as down as Kessler as some. I think watching Brook lumber out there has turned some folks off despite him being effective for us for years. Kessler is MUCH MUCH better in pursuit. He's far more mobile than he's being given credit for. For a guy his size, he actually moves his feet really really well because he's always twitchy and always on his toes. Shooting is a concern, but his feel on the defensive end us stupid impressive for 20 years old.

Wouldn't be a LFG pick for me, but wouldn't be a sky is falling situation either.

Emunney touched on it earlier in this thread with trends. This league will become cyclical defensively. The team that zigs the best when everyone else is zagging will reap the rewards. We happen to have a freak of nature with size playing for us. There's an opportunity to double down on that. Giannis's general ability to switch and guard on the perimeter is extremely overrated IMO, he's at his best when he's roaming. Going full switchy switch bois mitigates what he does best. The easier path is just to bludgeon teams.

I have a hard time looking at GS and thinking we wouldn't have just run through them because of their lack of size.

Also people are forgetting that we didn't win the title because we were awesome at switching so much as that we just physically beat the living **** out of teams. Like we played a small ball C at SG, and when the other ECF team tried to hide their dinky guard on him, he crashed from the corner and put him in the net.

EDIT: brainfart, I got it

FrieAaron · Post #1052 » by **FrieAaron** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:54 pm

FrieAaron wrote:...

I supposed I should add, based on this, for the Bucks I'd hope for whoever's first available of Dalen Terry, EJ Liddel, Ryan Rollins.

We only have the one pick this year, right?

machu46 · Post #1053 » by **machu46** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:56 pm

FrieAaron wrote:
FrieAaron wrote:...

I supposed I should add, based on this, for the Bucks I'd hope for whoever's first available of Dalen Terry, EJ Liddel, Ryan Rollins.

We only have the one pick this year, right?

For now at least, yes, one pick.

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SKG · Post #1054 » by **SKG** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:01 pm

If we somehow could draft Jovic...

FrieAaron · Post #1055 » by **FrieAaron** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:02 pm

SKG wrote:If we somehow could draft Jovic...

Seems like he very well may fall to us. I'm not sure what the consensus on the draft is, but to me it feels not necessarily top heavy but pretty deep. Think there will be quite a few decent prospects for us still available.

SKG · Post #1056 » by **SKG** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:07 pm

FrieAaron wrote:
SKG wrote:If we somehow could draft Jovic...

Seems like he very well may fall to us. I'm not sure what the consensus on the draft is, but to me it feels not necessarily top heavy but pretty deep. Think there will be quite a few decent prospects for us still available.

I hope so he is worth the pick and risk.

M-C-G · Post #1057 » by **M-C-G** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:07 pm

FrieAaron wrote:
SKG wrote:If we somehow could draft Jovic...

Seems like he very well may fall to us. I'm not sure what the consensus on the draft is, but to me it feels not necessarily top heavy but pretty deep. Think there will be quite a few decent prospects for us still available.

I feel like him not meeting with us this week as scheduled might mean he got a promise. Could have been any other reason but my gut says he got a promise

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M-C-G · Post #1058 » by **M-C-G** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:09 pm

Watched a play where Kendall Brown got the tip off his way and I think two dribble dunked a la Giannis. Feel like those two in transition would be incredible. Just need to speed up and shore up his shooting, seems like he can do everything else

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machu46 · Post #1059 » by **machu46** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:14 pm

M-C-G wrote:Watched a play where Kendall Brown got the tip off his way and I think two dribble dunked a la Giannis. Feel like those two in transition would be incredible. Just need to speed up and shore up his shooting, seems like he can do everything else

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He’s a guy where the clips look much better than the overall game IMO. Not really a good defender yet and just isn’t skilled enough to contribute much offensively right now. His net on/off rating for Baylor was -21 points per 100 possessions.

Interesting project in the 2nd round, but seems likely to be a guy where he’ll be on his 2nd contract before he’s an impactful player.

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emunney · Post #1060 » by **emunney** » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:18 pm

Watching Arkansas again and I just refuse to hate the idea of drafting the smartest player in college ball.