Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

[payitforward]

Spoiler:

There is absolutely no way Beal gets Washington a package like New Orleans got for AD or OKC got for George. AD is unique in that he can anchor your defense and be your #1 option on offense; AD is perennial All-NBA 1st teal. Beal is just not on that level. The Clippers overpaid for George because it meant Kawhi Leonard would sign; that leverage does not exist for Washington.

I am really curious as to what the market would be for Beal. I think Beal is a good player, but I don't think he is an elite player (he's only been an All-star twice and has never made the All-NBA team, although he probably should have made the 3rd team over Westbrook last year). Plus, Victor Oladipo, Evan Fournier, Gary Trent Jr, DeMar DeRozan, and potentially Goran Dragic will all be good options at shooting guard in free agency.

An interesting option might be Atlanta, who did not come to terms with John Collins. I could see a deal like this helping both Washington and Atlanta:

Atlanta gets Bradley Beal
Washington gets Johns Collins, DeAndre Hunter, Tony Snell, and a pick/swap (some sort of draft considerations)

Other options I think could be viable and worth targeting: Jamal Murray + Will Barton, Buddy Hield + Harrison Barnes, Aaron Gordan + Evan Fournier, Terry Rozier + DeVonte Graham+Cody Zeller and picks

I think IF we were to deal Beal, the most likely scenario is Miami for Herro & Prescious + a future 1st (2023?).


https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7374799

Possibly, but I am not sure Miami would offer more than Herro and Nunn + cap relief (Olynyk and Iguodala); it really depends on how high Heat management are on Beal and if Miami feels like they can get Oladipo in free agency (Miami has supposedly had a lot of interest in him over the years). A big issue for Miami is they have future picks tied up with other teams from previous trades and I don't think they can send a pick unless it is 2025 or 2026 or unless they unprotect a 2023 pick sent to OKC...something like that.

My inclination is that Riley won't trade Herro without getting an elite player back (hence the brief Harden discussions). I have no idea if Miami feels Beal fits that bill. Personally, I don't feel Miami gets a lot better by moving Herro for Beal because of how Miami plays and what they are asking Herro to do (basically be the 3rd option on offense).

While I agree that people on this board over-value Bradley Beal -- the way fans always over-value their team's players -- the idea of taking Herro plus valueless assets for him is kind of silly.

Now, you frame that in terms of what "Miami would offer." If they wanted Bradley Beal, i.e. if they made the "offer," I doubt it would be at that level. But, at the same time, you suggest that they don't actually get much better with Beal instead of Herro. In that case, why would they be making the "offer" in the first place, I wonder? Perhaps what you really mean is that Miami isn't a particularly good trade partner if we do want to move Brad Beal. That may be so.

Your scenario for a trade with the Hawks seems a bit more to the point. The ones that follow... perhaps they were simply "off the top of your head," but for example I can't imagine anyone particularly wanting Harrison Barnes & Buddy Hield in the first place, as they are a pair of the most over-paid & under-performing players in the league, let alone giving a very very good player like Brad for the privilege of paying them $42m. The Magic & Hornets variants aren't much better.

[trast66]

The only trade partner for Brad I can find is the Pelicans.

Brad and Jerome for Steven Adams and Kira Lewis.

We get our 2021 and 2023 2nd rounders back.

Also 2021 NOP 1st round pick, 2022 Lakers 1st round, 2024 Pels/Bucks 1st round.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

hot take: starting to think Beal is a huge part of the problem and that we need to lock in a package for him sooner rather than later. Before, I wouldn't have accepted anything less than Herro/Achiuwa/Robinson for him, but atm, I'd do 1-2 of those 3 + 1st + Nunn, or a similar package. While I think the current roster still has potential, Brooks is so bad of a coach that this season is very likely a lost season because of that alone, so it forces us into a mini-rebuild. Then we try to offload Thomas on a sucker and try to recoup the pick we lost in the Westbrook deal, while seeing how far he can carry us by himself with a team more built around him, which may recoup some value for next season (esp with the think FA market and Beal off the board, a team might get desperate)

Ya think?

[Dat2U]

The only trade partner for Brad I can find is the Pelicans.

Brad and Jerome for Steven Adams and Kira Lewis.

We get our 2021 and 2023 2nd rounders back.

Also 2021 NOP 1st round pick, 2022 Lakers 1st round, 2024 Pels/Bucks 1st round.

I'd disown the organization if they did this lol.

[nate33]

The only trade partner for Brad I can find is the Pelicans.

Brad and Jerome for Steven Adams and Kira Lewis.

We get our 2021 and 2023 2nd rounders back.

Also 2021 NOP 1st round pick, 2022 Lakers 1st round, 2024 Pels/Bucks 1st round.

Not sure if serious, or trolling.

[gambitx777]

Troll
But the pells do have the assets
I'd say ingram , hayes, lewis jr, and ball
2021 first lakers, 2021 seconds from cavs and wiz
2022 first pels, 2022 second cavs.
2023 first lakers
2024 second pels
2025 first bucks
For
Beal , Burtans , and Robinson.

The only trade partner for Brad I can find is the Pelicans.

Brad and Jerome for Steven Adams and Kira Lewis.

We get our 2021 and 2023 2nd rounders back.

Also 2021 NOP 1st round pick, 2022 Lakers 1st round, 2024 Pels/Bucks 1st round.

Not sure if serious, or trolling.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[SA37]

Spoiler:

Possibly, but I am not sure Miami would offer more than Herro and Nunn + cap relief (Olynyk and Iguodala); it really depends on how high Heat management are on Beal and if Miami feels like they can get Oladipo in free agency (Miami has supposedly had a lot of interest in him over the years). A big issue for Miami is they have future picks tied up with other teams from previous trades and I don't think they can send a pick unless it is 2025 or 2026 or unless they unprotect a 2023 pick sent to OKC...something like that.

My inclination is that Riley won't trade Herro without getting an elite player back (hence the brief Harden discussions). I have no idea if Miami feels Beal fits that bill. Personally, I don't feel Miami gets a lot better by moving Herro for Beal because of how Miami plays and what they are asking Herro to do (basically be the 3rd option on offense).

While I agree that people on this board over-value Bradley Beal -- the way fans always over-value their team's players -- the idea of taking Herro plus valueless assets for him is kind of silly.

Now, you frame that in terms of what "Miami would offer." If they wanted Bradley Beal, i.e. if they made the "offer," I doubt it would be at that level. But, at the same time, you suggest that they don't actually get much better with Beal instead of Herro. In that case, why would they be making the "offer" in the first place, I wonder? Perhaps what you really mean is that Miami isn't a particularly good trade partner if we do want to move Brad Beal. That may be so.

Miami's offer is pretty much limited to crap + current assets because of having to meet the financial requirements for a trade and, because of other trades, cannot deal an unprotected 1st rd pick until 2028 (could be 2025 if they lift protections on a 2023 pick OKC owns); Miami has 4 big contracts: Olynyk, Leonard, Iguodala, and Dragic -- and I believe both Leonard and Dragic have to agree to any trade bc of their contract status.

Really the only reasons to trade for Beal is if Miami thinks 1) Herro will not come close to being the player Beal is and/or 2) Herro won't develop fast enough to maximize Jimmy Butler's ~3 year window to give Miami the best shot at a title. I purposely wrote "Miami would offer" because if you look at the trades Miami has completed for all-stars, they don't trade the farm for players; they generally send "crap" (aka cap relief) + an asset or two. Examples:

Miami got Shaq for

crap = Brian Grant (avg 9 and 7 on a max deal!)
assets = Lamar Odom, Caron Butler and a 1st rd pick and a 2nd rd pick.

Miami got Jimmy Butler for

crap = Hassan Whiteside (on a max deal!) and

assets = Josh Richardson and a 1st rd pick (lottery protected)

Miami got Goran Dragic and Zoran Dragic for

crap = Danny Granger, Norris Cole, Justin Hamilton and Shawne Williams
assets = two future first round draft picks (#16 in 2018 and they get Miami's 2021 pick).

Your scenario for a trade with the Hawks seems a bit more to the point. The ones that follow... perhaps they were simply "off the top of your head," but for example I can't imagine anyone particularly wanting Harrison Barnes & Buddy Hield in the first place, as they are a pair of the most over-paid & under-performing players in the league, let alone giving a very very good player like Brad for the privilege of paying them $42m. The Magic & Hornets variants aren't much better.

Part of what makes trades and potential trades interesting is that everyone values players differently. It is the ultimate exercise in one man's trash is another man's treasure, especially when it comes to evaluating prospects and their potential. For example, I imagine no one on this board thinks much (if anything) of Kendrick Nunn. But the objective reality is he was runner-up for RoY last year; from Miami's perspective, he is not just some random filler. Is he a flash in the pan? Does he have potential to improve? If so, how much? That is all a question of perspective.

My personal feeling is that Beal is not an elite player and probably a 3rd option on a title-contending team and I wouldn't trade Herro for him if I were running the Heat. However, I try to look at Beal's value objectively based on other trades I've seen made for other all-star-ish players who play a similar position, the fact Beal is only a 2-time all-star and has never made an All-NBA team, and who is going to be available in free agency and at what price.

The unfortunate reality is that when teams trade stars, they almost never get equal value in return and I don't think the case will be different with Beal if Washington does decide to move him.

[pcbothwel]

I dont want a bunch of mid 1st for the next 3-5 years. I want Cade, Suggs, or Boukright(Going to be a star). Assuming Mobley goes in the top 3, that means I need the 4th pick or higher.

[payitforward]

SA37 -- There are a lot of interesting points in your long post above. Rather than re-include the whole thing, which will make a cumbersome thread, I'll take up a few points at a time:

Miami's offer is pretty much limited to...

This doesn't affect the question of Beal's value in a trade. If you are limited in what you can offer, you are limited in what you can get.

Miami got... Miami got... Miami got...

Turn each of the trades around & it's a bargain, an example of the opposite of your point. I.e. if junk gets me a good player, what does a good player get me? This is the problem w/ cherry-picking illustrations of a point.

...everyone values players differently. It is the ultimate exercise in one man's trash is another man's treasure...

No. Just plain no. There are fairly objective ways of assessing the value of what a player does in his minutes -- with respect to its effect on winning/losing games. These facts enter into the negotiations that eventuate in trades. It's no different from any other kind of "trade." Of course, each party tries to get more than he gives... duh. & of course, sometimes you trade a few beans and get a goose that lays golden eggs. & sometimes -- by definition! -- you're the one who trades the goose!

I imagine no one on this board thinks much (if anything) of Kendrick Nunn. But the objective reality is he was runner-up for RoY last year

That's not an "objective reality" of any kind! Not about Kendrick Nunn as a basketball player. The objective reality is in the numbers he put up. They weren't good, they were bad. & in the unusual circumstance of his being a rookie (Nunn will turn 26 in August; he's only 2 years younger than Brad Beal). Nor is this about what anyone here or elsewhere "thinks." I'm sure Pat Riley would be happy to get more for Nunn than what the kid is worth. So what? Kendrick Nunn is not a good NBA basketball player.

[payitforward]

...My personal feeling is that Beal is not an elite player and ...I wouldn't trade Herro for him if I were running the Heat....

Forgive me, but this more or less disqualifies you as an objective observer. Moreover, it makes me think with some confidence that you have little or no experience "running..." anything!

Herro has as much potential as Beal -- why not? Perhaps he has more.

But no one who actually runs anything ever confuses "potential" with "actual." & anyone running any team would prefer to have Beal instead of Herro if he or she could only have 1 of them.

...I try to look at Beal's value objectively ...Beal is only a 2-time all-star and has never made an All-NBA team...

Do you honestly think that one GM says to another, "I can't give you X for Y, because Y 'is only a 2-time all-star and has never made an All-NBA team....'" You think that's the language they use? Those are the metrics by which they judge players? That's what they think of as "value objectively?"

...The unfortunate reality is that when teams trade stars, they almost never get equal value in return....

So, then... the teams that acquire stars in a trade must almost always get more than equal value.

...and I don't think the case will be different with Beal if Washington does decide to move him.

But... but... but... you just said that Beal was not a star. So, obviously, the right thing to do is to trade him for someone who actually is a star, right?

That way, according to you, we'll be very likely to get, as you suggest, more than equal value for him. Right?

[SA37]

This doesn't affect the question of Beal's value in a trade. If you are limited in what you can offer, you are limited in what you can get...

...Turn each of the trades around & it's a bargain, an example of the opposite of your point. I.e. if junk gets me a good player, what does a good player get me? This is the problem w/ cherry-picking illustrations of a point.

No, of course not. I wasn't suggesting Washington should accept, only why I thought Miami's offer wouldn't be much better than what I said.

As for the trades I used as examples, it was just to illustrate the types of trades Riley has made in the past and why I don't think Miami will offer more.

That's not an "objective reality" of any kind! Not about Kendrick Nunn as a basketball player. The objective reality is in the numbers he put up. They weren't good, they were bad...Kendrick Nunn is not a good NBA basketball player.

So you're saying he was runner-up for RoY and made the All-rookie team because he put up bad numbers and he is a bad basketball player? 15ppg 3a 3b on 44 fg% and 35 3pt% in 29mpg are bad numbers?

You're entitled to that opinion, but those who voted for RoY and the all-rookie team clearly don't share your opinion.

[dckingsfan]

...My personal feeling is that Beal is not an elite player and ...I wouldn't trade Herro for him if I were running the Heat....

Forgive me, but this more or less disqualifies you as an objective observer.

Pretty much it for those Beal proposals. Start with a fallacy and work from there. "Beal is not an elite player"... everything else falls from there.

[SA37]

Do you honestly think that one GM says to another, "I can't give you X for Y, because Y 'is only a 2-time all-star and has never made an All-NBA team....'" You think that's the language they use? Those are the metrics by which they judge players? That's what they think of as "value objectively?"

The objective value comes from the fact that NBA coaches and those who vote for All-NBA teams have still yet to see a season in which Bradley Beal is amongst the top 6 guards in the league; similarly, coaches and those who vote for All-stars (not the starters) have only deemed 2 of Beal's seasons as being all-star worthy. If Beal were an elite player, it stands to reason he'd perennially be on those lists. You can disagree with that, but it's not my opinion you are disagreeing with. Again, I am not saying he is a bad player, overrated or anything like that. I am saying he's not elite and the fact he has not been a fixture on either the NBA All-star team or the All-NBA team shows there is some evidence to back up that opinion.

I am sure GMs and coaches have armies of people evaluating all kinds of data and metrics, but there is still a massive margin for error when trying to calculate what a player might or might not do when acquired. The list of failed lottery picks, free agent signings and trades where teams invested in some cases over one hundred million dollars for players thinking they would be stars is endless (Juwan Howard, Otto Porter Jr, Eddie Jones, Luol Deng, Brian Grant, Allan Houston, Andrew Wiggins, Nic Batum, Rashard Lewis, Larry Hughes, Kevin Love, Gordon Hayward, Tobias Harris, Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Elton Brand...).

So, then... the teams that acquire stars in a trade must almost always get more than equal value.

Of course. When you trade a known asset for an unknown asset or set of unknown assets, the risk is much greater for whoever is receiving the unknown assets. Of course, many teams pass on trading lottery picks for established players in the hopes that their bet on their draft pick will pay off.

Many trades have not worked out well for the team acquiring the star (T-Mac in Houston, Francis in Orlando, Marbury in NJ, Blake Griffin in Detroit, Kevin Love and Andre Drummond in Cleveland, Russell Westbrook in Houston) and some have worked out well for the team acquiring unknown assets (Marc Gasol for Memphis, Shai Gilgious Alexander in OKC, Brandon Ingram in New Orleans).

The main reason I wouldn't trade Herro for Beal is not because Herro is better or necessarily will be better than Beal (it is actually statistically unlikely that Herro becomes a better player), but because he doesn't have to be better than Beal for Miami to be successful. Herro is already good enough to produce consistently in the role he is being asked to play, he has the potential to be an all-star-ish player, and Miami's cap situation gives Miami the possibility of acquiring guys like Evan Fournier, DeMar DeRozan, Victor Oladipo, LaMarcus Aldridge, or some other good free agent without having to give up other assets.

[SA37]

...My personal feeling is that Beal is not an elite player and ...I wouldn't trade Herro for him if I were running the Heat....

Forgive me, but this more or less disqualifies you as an objective observer.

Pretty much it for those Beal proposals. Start with a fallacy and work from there. "Beal is not an elite player"... everything else falls from there.

Fortunately, my assessment of Beal is not the one that counts. We'll only find out if other teams think Beal is elite or not by whatever package he potentially lands Washington (or if they start voting him on to All-NBA teams).

[pcbothwel]

You're entitled to that opinion, but those who voted for RoY and the all-rookie team clearly don't share your opinion.

Nunn was a 24 y/o rookie that accrued counting stats... nobody cares. He is a year older than Devin Booker, and older than 11 of the top 15 players from the 2015 draft class.
He's an inefficient, undersized SG that is a mediocre defender and poor rebounder.
We just signed Raul Neto for the Vet Min this offseason, and he is clearly a better player.

[Frichuela]

Another trade proposal on the Beal front by this year’s trade deadline:

Would Sacramento be interested in a Beal for Hield+Halliburton+a 2021 unprotected 1st+2nd seconds (Memphis 2021and worst of Det/Chi 2022)?

Should they have to trade Beal, I could see Tommy and Leonsis going for something like this. Hield is signed until 2024 on a declining contract, allowing the Wiz to keep on the playoff hunt (which Leonsis likes...). Halliburton could be good pick up, able to play off both Westbrook and Hield. And the 2021 Sac pick would probably be in the 12-19 range (on top of our own pick).

Personally, I would be keener on Herro+Achiuwa trade as I believe Herro has more star potential than Halliburton and Achiuwa has great potential as a switchy 4-5 defensive stopper.

[Ruzious]

Another trade proposal on the Beal front by this year’s trade deadline:

Would Sacramento be interested in a Beal for Hield+Halliburton+a 2021 unprotected 1st+2nd seconds (Memphis 2021and worst of Det/Chi 2022)?

Should they have to trade Beal, I could see Tommy and Leonsis going for something like this. Hield is signed until 2024 on a declining contract, allowing the Wiz to keep on the playoff hunt (which Leonsis likes...). Halliburton could be good pick up, able to play off both Westbrook and Hield. And the 2021 Sac pick would probably be in the 12-19 range (on top of our own pick).

Personally, I would be keener on Herro+Achiuwa trade as I believe Herro has more star potential than Halliburton and Achiuwa has great potential as a switchy 4-5 defensive stopper.

It's a no for Sacramento. They'd have no interest because they're not competing for anything, and Beal wouldn't want to stay there. I concur that Herro has star potential and is already a fine player.

[nate33]

Another trade proposal on the Beal front by this year’s trade deadline:

Would Sacramento be interested in a Beal for Hield+Halliburton+a 2021 unprotected 1st+2nd seconds (Memphis 2021and worst of Det/Chi 2022)?

Should they have to trade Beal, I could see Tommy and Leonsis going for something like this. Hield is signed until 2024 on a declining contract, allowing the Wiz to keep on the playoff hunt (which Leonsis likes...). Halliburton could be good pick up, able to play off both Westbrook and Hield. And the 2021 Sac pick would probably be in the 12-19 range (on top of our own pick).

Personally, I would be keener on Herro+Achiuwa trade as I believe Herro has more star potential than Halliburton and Achiuwa has great potential as a switchy 4-5 defensive stopper.

I think I might like that Sacramento deal better. I love Halliburton and that 2021 pick is likely a lotto pick given how difficult the West is. And Hield isn't chopped liver. The guy can shoot.

I might try and hold out for one more 1st round pick. As bad as that organization is, any distant future pick has a change of being a real prize.

But does Sacramento extend such an offer for Beal when they wouldn't have much assurance that Beal would stay?

[payitforward]

This doesn't affect the question of Beal's value in a trade. If you are limited in what you can offer, you are limited in what you can get...

...Turn each of the trades around & it's a bargain, an example of the opposite of your point. I.e. if junk gets me a good player, what does a good player get me? This is the problem w/ cherry-picking illustrations of a point.

No, of course not. I wasn't suggesting Washington should accept, only why I thought Miami's offer wouldn't be much better than what I said.

As for the trades I used as examples, it was just to illustrate the types of trades Riley has made in the past and why I don't think Miami will offer more.

That's not an "objective reality" of any kind! Not about Kendrick Nunn as a basketball player. The objective reality is in the numbers he put up. They weren't good, they were bad...Kendrick Nunn is not a good NBA basketball player.

So you're saying he was runner-up for RoY and made the All-rookie team because he put up bad numbers and he is a bad basketball player? 15ppg 3a 3b on 44 fg% and 35 3pt% in 29mpg are bad numbers?

You're entitled to that opinion, but those who voted for RoY and the all-rookie team clearly don't share your opinion.

First off, my post was excessively cranky -- I apologize.

Secondly, you & I are both entitled to our opinions, to be sure! But, I'm not talking about my opinion. I don't have an opinion about Kendrick Nunn.

What I have are his numbers. Have you actually looked at them?

Nunn started off the season on fire from the 3-pt. line, & that drew a ton of attention his way. Nice! That early-season work got him selected in the popularity contest for those Rookie awards (despite being only 2 years younger than Brad Beal, btw).

But his 3 pt. % on the season was actually slightly below average for a PG & even more below average for a SG. Which means, obviously, that it dipped pretty low in the 2d half of the season. Of course, he took a larger number than average, & increased usage will almost always drop efficiency. So, it's fairer to look at his overall scoring efficiency.

His TS% was below average for a PG & even more so for a SG. Now, that's still on slightly higher than average overall usage, so one should consider him as closer to average in scoring for a guard than the raw numbers indicate. But, however generous one wanted to be, you could not call him as good as average as a scoring guard.

Overall, the rest of his numbers were altogether horrendous. He didn't turn it over much, but otherwise the news is bad right across the stats. &, again, this was a [i]24-year old [/i]rookie; he's going on 5 years older than Tyler Herro! Hell, he's only 2 years younger than Bradley Beal!

Anyway, you know as well as I that popularity contests don't tell you anything -- who's a better player, Nunn or Herro? How come Nunn not Herro was the runner up for RoY? Why was Nunn a first-team all-rookie instead of Herro?

Maybe for some reason Kendrick Nunn is one of your favorite players -- if so, I don't mean to dog him. He'll be in the league a few years, which not many people in the world do!

Above all, you have to hand it to Riley's staff -- last year they had 2 undrafted rookies on the team, Nunn & Silva, an undrafted guy they'd signed the previous year, Robinson, plus they had been smart enough to grab Derrick Jones, Jr. off the scrap heap a couple of years earlier!

[Ruzious]

Another trade proposal on the Beal front by this year’s trade deadline:

Would Sacramento be interested in a Beal for Hield+Halliburton+a 2021 unprotected 1st+2nd seconds (Memphis 2021and worst of Det/Chi 2022)?

Should they have to trade Beal, I could see Tommy and Leonsis going for something like this. Hield is signed until 2024 on a declining contract, allowing the Wiz to keep on the playoff hunt (which Leonsis likes...). Halliburton could be good pick up, able to play off both Westbrook and Hield. And the 2021 Sac pick would probably be in the 12-19 range (on top of our own pick).

Personally, I would be keener on Herro+Achiuwa trade as I believe Herro has more star potential than Halliburton and Achiuwa has great potential as a switchy 4-5 defensive stopper.

I think I might like that Sacramento deal better. I love Halliburton and that 2021 pick is likely a lotto pick given how difficult the West is. And Hield isn't chopped liver. The guy can shoot.

I might try and hold out for one more 1st round pick. As bad as that organization is, any distant future pick has a change of being a real prize.

But does Sacramento extend such an offer for Beal when they wouldn't have much assurance that Beal would stay?

I'm also a big Haliburton fan. Perhaps there's another way to get him - something like even up for Rui. Or - thinking their Marvin Bagley could use a change of scenery much like our Troy Brown could - make it Haliburton and Bagley for Rui and TBJ. We throw in Jerome Robinson to make the salaries fit. See, that's the value of Robinson - his contract can make trades work.