Slather me, Lather me, Blather me - 2011 Draft Thread 5

[montestewart]

Seraphin has it in him to be an atheistic version of this kind of player.

I wish he'd renounced God before he was drafted. Development of young bigs is difficult enough as is.

[pancakes3]

Weird result so far -- the 2nd pick (in the lottery era, meaning since 1985) has an almost identical production value as the 5th pick. Players picked 3rd have been more productive as a group than the 2nd picks. Wasn't expecting that. More coming later. I haven't even gotten the 4th pick done yet.

a death (bias), a motorcycle accident (jay will), and the inexplicable drafting of darko ahead of melo & co. is probably enough to skew the data alone much less factoring in the thabeets, stromiles, and shawn bradleys.

[Ed Wood]

Seraphin has it in him to be an atheistic version of this kind of player.

I wish he'd renounced God before he was drafted. Development of young bigs is difficult enough as is.

The Plague of Offensive Fouls

[Nivek]

Weird result so far -- the 2nd pick (in the lottery era, meaning since 1985) has an almost identical production value as the 5th pick. Players picked 3rd have been more productive as a group than the 2nd picks. Wasn't expecting that. More coming later. I haven't even gotten the 4th pick done yet.

a death (bias), a motorcycle accident (jay will), and the inexplicable drafting of darko ahead of melo & co. is probably enough to skew the data alone much less factoring in the thabeets, stromiles, and shawn bradleys.

Yeah. Bias didn't count at all because he never played a game. So, he didn't drag down the average, but he didn't help either -- and he surely would have helped.

As I scanned the list of 2nd picks, I found a small error in the data. Corrected that and the value of the 2nd pick improved to the point of having the identical value of the 4th pick. The 3rd pick still comes out as a bit more valuable than the 2nd.

Looking at 2nd picks, the bad "outliers" are Danny Ferry, Jay Williams, Darko, and Marvin Williams. Durant is the most productive #2 since 1985. Zo was about as productive per minute, but Durant didn't miss as many games in his first 4 years as Zo did.

[closg00]

Yeah, crank-up the 2012 Draft Thread
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/w ... nba_t12_a1

[The Consiglieri]

If there is no season this year, how will the lottery be determined.
likely alphabetical or 2007-8 standings

It might actually be good for us if there is no season

Seriously, they probably do something like hockey. The NHL took the average standings over a number of recent standings. Once, seeded I could see the NBA putting everyone in the lottery, with a more even distribution.

jonathan (nyc)


if there is a lockout and the whole season is wasted, what process does the nba go to in order to pick the draft order for next year? A team like the knicks dont have a 2012 draft pick, does that complicate things?
Chad Ford
(1:24 PM)


Word from the league is that it's to be determined. Not sure how they'll go about it and neither do they. I think everyone on both sides hopes that they'll be, at the very least, a shortened season. Losing the whole year is a devastating scenario for both sides. But if they do lose it, I think they could have a lottery for the entire league. Give odds based on projected records for 2011-12. And let the ping pong balls fly.

and on Singleton to a degree:

Anthony (NYC)


Brooks would have been a terrible fit for the Knicks, but Chris Singleton was an absolute gift at #17 and they simply passed it by because of "lack of playing time". What? At a minimum Singleton would have provided them with a better chip to trade and at best a proven lock down defender.
Chad Ford
(1:10 PM)


I would've taken Singleton, but from what I can gather in New York he had an awful workout there while Shumpert had one of the best workouts they've ever seen. Heard that a lot about both players. Not sure why Singleton struggled in workouts, but most teams weren't impressed.

[rockymac52]

Yeah, crank-up the 2012 Draft Thread
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/w ... nba_t12_a1

That's not even the half of it

I'm glad somebody finally wrote about Tony Mitchell. I've tried to plug him several times here now because I go to Mizzou so I knew about him but no one ever was interested at all. I thought he should have entered the draft this year. Would have made for an awesome second round gamble.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Early responses from the San Antonio fans echo what Ed just said.

Apparently Blair has significant defensive shortcomings, and Pop is unwilling to give him much burn because he unbalances the lineups.

This year Pop lost in the first round to the eighth seed. Blair hardly played.

Last year, (2009-2010), Blair had a strong playoffs and he played a lot of minutes.

My thoughts are Blair is unlike Glen Davis because Davis cannot get 20 rebounds. Blair had two 20 point/20 rebound games as a rookie. Glenn Davis had 12 rebounds once as a rookie, a couple times his second season, never more than 8 his third, and his career high of 14 rebounds ONE TIME in this past year--his fourth season. I disagree totally with willbcocks that Blair is like Davis.

Blair is a lot like Danny Fortson was. He's a better-scoring Reggie Evans. Yes, he's a liability defensively and fouls are a problem with Blair.

My suspicion, however, is that used properly and played a lot more minutes he would prove to score well and help a team be better than average. Blair is a better-than-average PF/C.

[Illuminaire]

Totally agree that Blair is better than Davis, CCJ.

I think that if his defensive shortcomings are bad enough, though, that he can't be called a better than average PF/C. Particularly not a C.

I'll have to make a point to watch more San Antonio games and try to see where his weaknesses really are. You know, whenever we have basketball again. -.-

[willbcocks]

For what it's worth, when I said "He's a glen davis type player, good off the bench or in certain matchups, not a full-time starter," I wasn't talking about style of play. I was talking about how both players create matchup problems for their own teams, thus making them unsuitable to be starters. A Brendan Haywood, even if he is missing all his shots, is a better permanent starter because you don't have to worry about who's at opposing center when he's in the game.

ETA: Blair's +/- and on/off defensive stats also aren't very good. Since he plays most of his minutes with Duncan on the court, that's not the cause. And for me the eye test confirms the conclusion, which is that his defense hurts the team. I still wish we had him, he's a great pick at his position, and he may be more productive than the average lottery pick. But would I trade Vesley or Singleton for him? No.

[WizarDynasty]

teh focus of this conversation is blair transition offense and transition defense. Can he beat his man down the court ofensively and defensively each possession and secure the best position on the floor on does plod and the teams has to slow down shaq style.

[Nivek]

ETA: Blair's +/- and on/off defensive stats also aren't very good. Since he plays most of his minutes with Duncan on the court, that's not the cause. And for me the eye test confirms the conclusion, which is that his defense hurts the team. I still wish we had him, he's a great pick at his position, and he may be more productive than the average lottery pick. But would I trade Vesley or Singleton for him? No.

"Most of his minutes with Duncan"? According to the Lenovo player pair numbers, 53.6% of Blair's minutes were with Duncan. His high combos were with Ginobili, Jefferson and Parker (about 66% with each). He also played 20% of his minutes with Bonner.

His defense probably does hurt the Spurs a bit, but they're still better than average defensively when he's on the floor. And they still outscore their opponents by about 3.7 points per 48 minutes -- the differential of a 50-51 win team. When he's paired with Duncan, the Spurs are +9 per 48 -- the differential of a 62-win team. Maybe Pop should play them together a bit more.

I don't know whether I'd trade Vesely or Singleton for him. Based on the research I've done on production by draft position, I would happily trade the typical 6th or 18th pick for Blair. And chortle while filing the paperwork because I'd have just fleeced the opposing GM.

[TGW]

so Flip compared Vesley to Garnett and Mack to Joe Dumars. No wonder we got an A+

Ted should start fining Flip every time he mentions KG.

[dangermouse]

who else has he compared to KG in the past? racking my brain here

[gesa2]

who else has he compared to KG in the past? racking my brain here

He brings up KG whenever he wants to talk about commitment, effort, intensity. He's compared Blatche to KG before, mostly unfavorably.

[Illuminaire]

It always seems a little like a guy talking about an ex-girlfriend he still wishes he could hook back up with. I can picture Flip sitting at home some nights, flipping through pictures of KG and him in Minnie. After a while he starts glancing at the phone, wondering if maybe now is the right time to call.

But it never is. It never is.

[Zonkerbl]

It always seems a little like a guy talking about an ex-girlfriend he still wishes he could hook back up with. I can picture Flip sitting at home some nights, flipping through pictures of KG and him in Minnie. After a while he starts glancing at the phone, wondering if maybe now is the right time to call.

But it never is. It never is.

*sniffle*

man that is the saddest thing ever.

Flip we love you man!!!

[Kanyewest]

For what it's worth, when I said "He's a glen davis type player, good off the bench or in certain matchups, not a full-time starter," I wasn't talking about style of play. I was talking about how both players create matchup problems for their own teams, thus making them unsuitable to be starters. A Brendan Haywood, even if he is missing all his shots, is a better permanent starter because you don't have to worry about who's at opposing center when he's in the game.

ETA: Blair's +/- and on/off defensive stats also aren't very good. Since he plays most of his minutes with Duncan on the court, that's not the cause. And for me the eye test confirms the conclusion, which is that his defense hurts the team. I still wish we had him, he's a great pick at his position, and he may be more productive than the average lottery pick. But would I trade Vesley or Singleton for him? No.

Yup, while Blair is an amazing rebounder, his lack of height hurts him on the defensive end. He's not a good man to man defender. And he's not going to block shots.

I love Blair for the intensity that he plays with and that can get you along in the regular season. But he hasn't been very consistent in the postseason, hence the reason why Pop hasn't given him many minutes in the postseason. My theory is that players don't exert as much effort during the regular season which is when Blair can be productive.

I also think someone who gets as many offensive rebounds as he does should be able to have a much higher field goal percentage than 50%. Then again, maybe Blair can improve on that aspect of his game.

As for trading Blair for either Vesley or Singleton, I agree that we should keep the rookies, a major reason being that the Wizards will have those guys on rookie contracts longer.

[closg00]

More 2012 Mock Draft fun.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... o-disagree

[Nivek]

Yup, while Blair is an amazing rebounder, his lack of height hurts him on the defensive end. He's not a good man to man defender. And he's not going to block shots.

Blair gets just under a block per 36 minutes. I wouldn't call shot blocking a strength of his, but he does get about as many blocks (or more) as guys like KG, Nick Collison, Chuck Hayes, LaMarcus Aldridge, Bosh, Lebron, Landry, Dirk, Odom, Pachulia, Greg Monroe...

Lack of height doesn't seem to limit the defensive abilities of Chuck Hayes, for example -- at least not that I've noticed.

Let us also keep in mind that just as playing with non-defending teammates can make someone like Nick Young (or Jared Jeffries) look comparatively good, playing with good defending teammates can make a Blair look comparatively worse. Blair would likely be the Wizards best defensive big, for example, even if he may be San Antonio's worst.