2024 NBA FINALS: #1 Boston Celtics vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (Game 1: Thursday June 6th)

[ITYSL]

It's a tad inconsistent to say that the Mavs can only be judged on performances from mid-March on, but what KP did on the Mavs 3 years ago is fair game for analysis.

[Fantaxp7]

The differences between 2022 and 2024 Celtics are

1. Jrue vs Smart
2. Finals experience
3. Played games in PO 18 vs 16 GSW (2022) and 14 vs 17 DAL (2024)
4. Home advantage

They were very close to win it all in 2022. I cant see BOS losing with so many upgrades in all these areas. Also BOS played 20 games in last 3 PO round...they were gased and on last legs in the second part of the Finals.

5. We also didn't have to play two 7 game series vs the Heat and Sixers this year. That really wore out our team before the finals. I think the Wolves suffered from that when playing Dallas.

[Bob8]

Dude I'm done. If you don't understand the difference, then IDK what to tell you. The difference between Boston at #1 and Dallas at #3 in 3 pointers made per game is literally the same gap between Dallas and the Rockets at #14.

Since apparently you're just going to ignore statistical evidence....yes, it's more than enough to justify my confidence. Boston had the most efficient offense in NBA history and the #3 net rating all time. Mavs have no **** chance. That what you want me to say? I've been trying to keep it nice and keep it about the stats but I'm done. Celtics in 5

The difference is 2 3s, 6 points. Mavs survived - 36 points against Wolves in game 1.

Good, line is getting very long with overconfident Thunder, Wolves and Celtics fans.

Celtics have more playoff experience, more talent, a better offensive/defensive/and net rating for literally any segment of season you want to pick. RS, Post trade deadline, playoffs. Pick one, the Celtics are better at offense, defense and have a historically high net rating, along with being better in essentially any stat you could possibly use to compare 2 teams. You aren't playing the baby faced Thunder, or the offensively inept Wolves anymore. You're in for a rude awakening.

Do you understand that I'm not saying that Mavs are favourites in this series? I'm only saying that Mavs have a chance to win.

Problem with many Celtics fans is not believing that Celtics are better team, but being 100% sure that they will win easily. You're offended if Mavs fans express their opinion that Mavs are not without chances. Kinda impossible to have normal conversations in situation like that.

Having experience in previous rounds, fans like that disappear fast, if games are not going their way, because they're too embarrassed to continue conversation.

[The Corey's]

It's a tad inconsistent to say that the Mavs can only be judged on performances from mid-March on, but what KP did on the Mavs 3 years ago is fair game for analysis.

Even since mid March the Celtics gave been way better than the Mavs.

What have Dallas done that that Celtics haven't already done better?

[ajones9219]

Some of y'all actually think Luka gonna single handedly win this.

Luka already averaging 35 a game against the Celtics and Dallas still losing bad.

It's interesting that Luka is still gonna get his but Brown and Tatum who have destroyed Dallas are gonna fall back to earth.

Stopping Luka isn't the priority. 35 a game isn't gonna be enough.

Keep thinking Dallas is the same team they were earlier in the season. Every other team the Mavs have played thought the same thing.

Let's call a spade a spade here. For all the talk of Boston's easy path (It absolutely was), you played an injured Los Angeles without Kawhi, a baby OKC team with no playoff experience, and a Timberwolves team with no offense that blew their load beating Denver.... The amount of Mavs fan grab assing over this run is insane.

[Dundalis]

KP averages near the same amount of block as Gafford and is top 10 in the league....Along with that, it's a well established fact that KP is one of the very best at deterring shots over the past few years due to his length. There is literally no comparing KP on the Mavs to him now. He went from one of the worst post players in the league to statistically the best since last season. You're being delusional.

Also Boston isn't an elite shooting team? They took and made the most 3s in the league this year and #2 in percentage (while taking 8 more 3's a game vs #1). They are literally the best 3 point shooting team in the league. Also the Pacers have defended the 3 better than the Mavs over the regular season and been basically dead even in the playoffs, with the Mavs playing worse shooting teams. Again you're just being delusional brother. Boston not having had a crazy heater series yet from 3 is bad news if anything for the Mavs because odds say they will go hot at some point for an extended stretch.

Holiday: 42.9%
White: 39.6%
Porzingis: 37.5%
Tatum: 37.6%
Brown: 35.4%
Horford: 41.9%
Hauser: 42.4%
Pritchard: 38.5%

I hope KP plays because he will get cooked by Luka in PnR, and off ball screens. The Mavs already faced a superior version of KP who's a straight up better rim protector in Chet, and the Mavs made him a liability. Also the Thunder have a similarly strong perimeter defense, there was almost nothing between the Thunder and Celtics in defensive metrics during the season apart from the Celtics had more frequent easier eastern conference matchups.

There are only two elite half court offensive initiators in this series, and both play for Dallas. Tatum and Brown are the second and third best players in the series, but neither are remotely in the elite bracket as half court offensive initiators. Boston certainly have 4 good ones, but no one truly elite.

Every round since the OKC series, the opposing teams fans have made noise about how their perimeter defenders have the capacity to slow Luka down in single coverage. Literally the only thing that slows Luka down is his health. If a healthy Kawhi and PG can do absolutely zero to slow down a 21 year old less experienced version of Luka, the quality of your individual defenders doesn't matter. If he's fully healthy, you single cover him and he absolutely cooks you, or you bring aggressive blitzes and double teams and compromise the solidity of your defense. We'll see if I'm proven wrong, but I don't see any scenario where Dallas will ever require sustained aggressive blitzes or doubles against anyone on the Celtics, because they don't have anyone that can manipulate any and every single type of defensive coverage in the half court to an elite level.

Bottom line is a healthy Luka has repeatedly cooked every single type of defensive coverage and playoff teams headlined by a younger and healthy version of Kawhi and PG, of which there is no one on Boston at that level defensively.

The Celtics can certainly win the series via simply shooting the lights out which they are certainly capable of doing. But they aren't getting any easy paint points to supplement their scoring, and they aren't stopping a Luka free of any serious health issues in any type of single coverage no matter who they wanna switch onto him. I don't doubt how good the Celtics offense can be, but lots of people are grossly overrating what Boston's defense is gonna be able to do vs Luka now that he looks fully healthy IMO.

Dallas doesn't have a top 5 half court offense either in the the regular season or playoffs (7th in both). Boston has the #1 half court offense in the league during the regular season and #2 in the playoffs.....how could this be if Dallas has the only 2 elite half court initiators? I swear y'all act like we can't google this ****.

Uh, because team stats are not the same as individual ones? It's not that hard to fathom. If you wanna actually tell me which individual player on the Celtics is an elite half court initiator, I'm all ears. That's like saying Luka wasn't the best scorer in the league because the Mavs didn't have the best offensive rating, lol.

[The Corey's]

Some of y'all actually think Luka gonna single handedly win this.

Luka already averaging 35 a game against the Celtics and Dallas still losing bad.

It's interesting that Luka is still gonna get his but Brown and Tatum who have destroyed Dallas are gonna fall back to earth.

Stopping Luka isn't the priority. 35 a game isn't gonna be enough.

Keep thinking Dallas is the same team they were earlier in the season. Every other team the Mavs have played thought the same thing.

Keep thinking you can beat the Celtics when there's no evidence that suggest otherwise.

No one beats this Celtics team. Especially a group of misfits run by a **** coach.

[itrsteve]

Can we all agree that these finals will be the most interesting over the last couple of years?
- relatively easy way vs. western battleground
- best team since day 1 vs. team that has fought its way to current form over the course of the season
- two players vs. their ex-teams
- Luka and Kyrie vs. Tatum and Brown
- Kyrie's new image vs. old narrative
- Tatum and Brown vs. Celtics are good but can't win it all
- Al Horford vs. the best playoff lob teams since years
- KP vs. injury
- Dallas third most important player is a rookie
- Despite Luka and Kyrie Mavs are a defensive powerhouse
- Celtics have 4+ elite defenders but is this enough for Luka?

I'm in agreement with this. There's some cool story lines and should be an entertaining series.

My only knit pick is the path to the finals argument, seems disingenuous that people conveniently overlook that LAC didn't have Leonard, a current 2nd-team all NBA guy for the first round matchup that still went 6 games. But yet, Jimmy Butler is basketball jesus.

Not denying that Boston certainly had fortune, but their last finals run in 2022 with a much lesser team swept the Super Nets and scraped out gritty series against Milwaukee and Miami. They're more than capable of matching up with the big names. Except Wiggins temporarily going supernova lol.

[ITYSL]

It's a tad inconsistent to say that the Mavs can only be judged on performances from mid-March on, but what KP did on the Mavs 3 years ago is fair game for analysis.

Even since mid March the Celtics gave been way better than the Mavs.

What have Dallas done that that Celtics haven't already done better?

One of the main arguments for Dallas is that they have beaten harder competition in the playoffs. Meanwhile, even though the Celtics have only lost 2 games these playoffs, they did lose one game each to teams missing their star player, and had closer-than-expected wins against several playoff opponents without their star players. Those two circumstances could lead one to reasonably think that the Mavs will be a serious challenge for the Celtics.

[The Corey's]

It's a tad inconsistent to say that the Mavs can only be judged on performances from mid-March on, but what KP did on the Mavs 3 years ago is fair game for analysis.

Even since mid March the Celtics gave been way better than the Mavs.

What have Dallas done that that Celtics haven't already done better?

One of the main arguments for Dallas is that they have beaten harder competition in the playoffs. Meanwhile, even though the Celtics have only lost 2 games these playoffs, they did lose one game each to teams missing their star player, and had closer-than-expected wins against several playoff opponents without their star players. Those two circumstances could lead one to reasonably think that the Mavs will be a serious challenge for the Celtics.

The Celtics ARE the hard competition.

[Larry_Russell]

Who are those elite shooters? Elite shooting team were Warriors with prime Steph, Klay and KD. Celtics are shooting worse than Mavs in playoffs and Pacers were not exactly elite perimeter defensive team. OKC was playing 5 out offense too, but was kept alive only by insane midrange shooting by Shai. Celtics might win a game or 2 with hot shooting, but that's far away from dominating series. Mavs with Luka are more than capable of hot shooting nights too. They were 3rd in 3s made in RS.

Kp is good help defender but far from elite rim protector. Don't forget that we have been watching him for few years in Dallas and nobody was upset about him being traded. His total inability to protect the rim was the reason for Mavs playing Boban alongside him in Clippers series. He might be more motivated now, but I doubt that anyone is afraid of him.

KP averages near the same amount of block as Gafford and is top 10 in the league....Along with that, it's a well established fact that KP is one of the very best at deterring shots over the past few years. You're being delusional.

Also Boston isn't an elite shooting team? They took and made the most 3s in the league this year and #2 in percentage (while taking 8 more 3's a game vs #1). They are literally the best 3 point shooting team in the league. Again you're just being delusional brother.

Holiday: 42.9%
White: 39.6%
Porzingis: 37.5%
Tatum: 37.6%
Brown: 35.4%
Horford: 41.9%
Hauser: 42.4%
Pritchard: 38.5%

You're forgetting that Mavs played against Chet, who is for sure better than KP.

There is not a single elite shooter there. Celtics might be the best shooting team in the league, but they averaged only 1.9 3s more than Mavs in RS, Mavs were 3rd in 3s made, shooting 38.8% for 3, Mavs 36.9%. And they averaged 2 3s more in playoffs, shooting 36.8%, Mavs 37.2%.

Do you really believe that's the difference on which you should build your enormous confidence?

Regular season

Boston 42.5 threes per game - 39%
Dallasr 39.5 - 37% - 37.6 threes attempted post trade @ 36%


If we want to talk only playoffs.

Then Celtics take 40 threes per game to Dallas' 34
Boston makes 37% to Dallas' 37%

Boston has been without KP who averages 5 3s per game on 38% and replaced him with Al Horford who in the playoffs was 5.5 at 34% and Tatum shooting sub 30% (which will not continue)

And regarding Chet versus KP

Chet
16.5ppg, 7.9rpg, 2.4apg, 0.6spg, 2.3bpg, 37% on 4.3-3pta
KP
20ppg, 7.2rpg, 2apg, 0.7spg, 2bpg, 37.5% on 5.1-3pta also posting insane post up numbers and elite defensive rim protection numbers.

It is not clear cut that Chet is better than KP, when KP put up better numbers.

[The Corey's]

It's a tad inconsistent to say that the Mavs can only be judged on performances from mid-March on, but what KP did on the Mavs 3 years ago is fair game for analysis.

Even since mid March the Celtics gave been way better than the Mavs.

What have Dallas done that that Celtics haven't already done better?

One of the main arguments for Dallas is that they have beaten harder competition in the playoffs. Meanwhile, even though the Celtics have only lost 2 games these playoffs, they did lose one game each to teams missing their star player, and had closer-than-expected wins against several playoff opponents without their star players. Those two circumstances could lead one to reasonably think that the Mavs will be a serious challenge for the Celtics.

I once saw the Chicago Bulls struggle against the Keith van Horn lead Nets.

Ain't no one says that championship don't count cause the Bulls barely beat them.

Some of these pundits don't understand **** if I'm being honest. How you play X doesn't mean you play Y the same. It don't work that way.

Not stating this about you. Just how I feel about the narrative that has developed.

[ajones9219]

The difference is 2 3s, 6 points. Mavs survived - 36 points against Wolves in game 1.

Good, line is getting very long with overconfident Thunder, Wolves and Celtics fans.

Celtics have more playoff experience, more talent, a better offensive/defensive/and net rating for literally any segment of season you want to pick. RS, Post trade deadline, playoffs. Pick one, the Celtics are better at offense, defense and have a historically high net rating, along with being better in essentially any stat you could possibly use to compare 2 teams. You aren't playing the baby faced Thunder, or the offensively inept Wolves anymore. You're in for a rude awakening.

Do you understand that I'm not saying that Mavs are favourites in this series? I'm only saying that Mavs have a chance to win.

Problem with many Celtics fans is not believing that Celtics are better team, but being 100% sure that they will win easily. You're offended if Mavs fans express their opinion that Mavs are not without chances. Kinda impossible to have normal conversations in situation like that.

Having experience in previous rounds, fans like that disappear fast, if games are not going their way, because they're too embarrassed to continue conversation.

You said the Mavs didn't get to the finals by accident. I agreed with you, with the caveat that while they are a good team, statistically they are not nearly as good as Boston which is an objective fact. This offended you clearly and started a dozen or more post argument where you argued that KP is a bad rim defender and Boston isn't an elite shooting team, both statements which again are easily debunked with a simple look at the stats.

Again I say, the Mavs are a good team. They are still not better than the Celtics. As a result, I don't see a way the Mavs win the series unless Boston just doesn't play to it's potential. So yes, can the Mavs beat the Celtics? Yes. Is it more likely that Boston wins in a relatively quick series? Again, by basically ever hard stat, yes. Vegas agrees, which is why Celtics in 5 is the most likely outcome according to the books.

[ajones9219]

I hope KP plays because he will get cooked by Luka in PnR, and off ball screens. The Mavs already faced a superior version of KP who's a straight up better rim protector in Chet, and the Mavs made him a liability. Also the Thunder have a similarly strong perimeter defense, there was almost nothing between the Thunder and Celtics in defensive metrics during the season apart from the Celtics had more frequent easier eastern conference matchups.

There are only two elite half court offensive initiators in this series, and both play for Dallas. Tatum and Brown are the second and third best players in the series, but neither are remotely in the elite bracket as half court offensive initiators. Boston certainly have 4 good ones, but no one truly elite.

Every round since the OKC series, the opposing teams fans have made noise about how their perimeter defenders have the capacity to slow Luka down in single coverage. Literally the only thing that slows Luka down is his health. If a healthy Kawhi and PG can do absolutely zero to slow down a 21 year old less experienced version of Luka, the quality of your individual defenders doesn't matter. If he's fully healthy, you single cover him and he absolutely cooks you, or you bring aggressive blitzes and double teams and compromise the solidity of your defense. We'll see if I'm proven wrong, but I don't see any scenario where Dallas will ever require sustained aggressive blitzes or doubles against anyone on the Celtics, because they don't have anyone that can manipulate any and every single type of defensive coverage in the half court to an elite level.

Bottom line is a healthy Luka has repeatedly cooked every single type of defensive coverage and playoff teams headlined by a younger and healthy version of Kawhi and PG, of which there is no one on Boston at that level defensively.

The Celtics can certainly win the series via simply shooting the lights out which they are certainly capable of doing. But they aren't getting any easy paint points to supplement their scoring, and they aren't stopping a Luka free of any serious health issues in any type of single coverage no matter who they wanna switch onto him. I don't doubt how good the Celtics offense can be, but lots of people are grossly overrating what Boston's defense is gonna be able to do vs Luka now that he looks fully healthy IMO.

Dallas doesn't have a top 5 half court offense either in the the regular season or playoffs (7th in both). Boston has the #1 half court offense in the league during the regular season and #2 in the playoffs.....how could this be if Dallas has the only 2 elite half court initiators? I swear y'all act like we can't google this ****.

Uh, because team stats are not the same as individual ones? It's not that hard to fathom. If you wanna actually tell me which individual player on the Celtics is an elite half court initiator, I'm all ears. That's like saying Luka wasn't the best scorer in the league because the Mavs didn't have the best offensive rating, lol.

Then literally what is your argument then? If Luka and Kyrie are the better half court initiators (which I agree with), but Boston has by far the better half court offense, how is that a W for the Mavs?

[The Corey's]

Celtics are gonna destroy the Mavs so bad it will probably get cuban fired.

[Larry_Russell]

Some of y'all actually think Luka gonna single handedly win this.

Luka already averaging 35 a game against the Celtics and Dallas still losing bad.

It's interesting that Luka is still gonna get his but Brown and Tatum who have destroyed Dallas are gonna fall back to earth.

Stopping Luka isn't the priority. 35 a game isn't gonna be enough.

Keep thinking Dallas is the same team they were earlier in the season. Every other team the Mavs have played thought the same thing.

you are the same team.

Since the BIG TRADE

Net Rating
Dallas +5.4
Boston +15.4

Offensive rating
Dallas 115.9
Boston 125.7

Defensive rating
Dallas 110.5
Boston 110.2

Boston has the better
Assist%, Ast/TO, Assist ration, Def Reb%, Off Reb %, Reb%, Fewer Turnovers, Higher efg%, ts%,


Stop pretending like
PJ Washington bringin 11.5/6/1.5
And Lively bringing 8/7/1
And DJJ bringing 10/3/1

is making this big impact, they are not even starters, any of them, on the celtics

Dwight 18/4/4.5
Jrue 12.7/5.6/4.6
Horforc 10/7.3/2

And this is not including out other 20ppg scorer in KP.

Oh and before you give me the Kyrie and Doncic pairing so so great bull
PLayoff Kyrie and Doncic
51.6ppg
13.5rpg,
14apg
2.8spg
0.9bpg

Tatum and Brown playoffs
51 ppg
16.5rpg
8.5apg
2.2spg,
1.3bpg
While also playing lock down defense.

[Larry_Russell]

Celtics are gonna destroy the Mavs so bad it will probably get cuban fired.

it will go five games cause the Celtics want to close out the series on their home court.

[JustBuzzin]

I just listened to First Take scream 40 minutes about a Caitlin Clark cheap shot. As if it was the most criminal thing ever done in sports.

Why was this same energy not brought to Draymond Green and why was he rewarded with commercials and calling playoff games for TNT?


This has nothing to do with the game, but I had to vent after seeing that nonsense.

[The Corey's]

Celtics are gonna destroy the Mavs so bad it will probably get cuban fired.

it will go five games cause the Celtics want to close out the series on their home court.

I decided not to watch. Luka has it wrapped up and the Celtics are just in for a rude awakening like the more talented teams of clippers, thunder and wolves.

See y'all next year.

[165bows]

It's a tad inconsistent to say that the Mavs can only be judged on performances from mid-March on, but what KP did on the Mavs 3 years ago is fair game for analysis.

Even since mid March the Celtics gave been way better than the Mavs.

What have Dallas done that that Celtics haven't already done better?

One of the main arguments for Dallas is that they have beaten harder competition in the playoffs. Meanwhile, even though the Celtics have only lost 2 games these playoffs, they did lose one game each to teams missing their star player, and had closer-than-expected wins against several playoff opponents without their star players. Those two circumstances could lead one to reasonably think that the Mavs will be a serious challenge for the Celtics.

That's basically the argument.

I actually think it will be a hard fought series but just seems a tad hyperbolic by a squad of Mavs fans who don't seem to take into account what a dog fight is coming up.

Celtics have been prepping for 12 months straight for the finals. LAC was hurt and flames out in the first round every year, Okc is super young, thin up front and didn't even try to load up for the playoffs. Minny was a tough team but had a lot of flaws and already just won their championship beating Denver.

Boston was the best regular season team since the 17-18 Warriors, just went 12-2 through the playoffs without a starter and haven't even played their best ball of the playoffs yet.