2025 Draft Thread - Part 2

[DCZards]

There are SO MANY guys that would typically go in a lot of drafts in that 9-15 zone: I feel like there are around 20-25 guys this year that would be comfortably in the bottom of the top 10 to bottom of the teens in most drafts, but are all just piled into a clown car in this draft, and will thus flow downward to the end of round 1 and possibly early round 2. This might have been a much better draft to have an early 2nd than usual, I'm a bit annoyed we gave ours to Boston.

Hard for me to be annoyed at losing the early SRP given that the same FO was able to get the 18th pick.

[WizarDynasty]

Interesting. Here is their statistical comparison from Tankathon. The numbers are a bit different, not sure why. Tankathon is using per 36:



Beal looks a little better across the board, thanks largely to his superior 2P% and FTA rate, but Tre's ability to shoot threes with accuracy and volume almost makes up for it. Tre Johnson also has a 1.5-inch height advantage and a 2.5-inch wingspan advantage. Once he fills out, he should be able to man the SF position in a pinch, something Beal never really could do.

8'5 standing reach is not good for a shooting guard, let alone a small forward. 8'11 to 9'1 is elite for small forward. 8'8 to 8'11 is elite for a shooting guard. Standing reach rules for front court positions s/f through center.

Well, Beal had an 8'4 standing reach...

Beal was also never consistent a Engine for this team. Let's not even evaluate his performance against playoffs teams through his career to see if he was a consistent engine.

[nate33]

8'5 standing reach is not good for a shooting guard, let alone a small forward. 8'11 to 9'1 is elite for small forward. 8'8 to 8'11 is elite for a shooting guard. Standing reach rules for front court positions s/f through center.

I mostly ignore standing reach measurements except for centers because too many guards and wings are tanking the measurement to boost their vertical leap numbers. Tre is 6'-4.75" barefoot with a 6'-10.25" wingspan. I guarantee his standing reach is higher than 8'-5" unless his arms are attached to his torso at his kidneys.

If you go back a decade or so before this trend started, you will see proper standing reach measurements. For example, in 2008, Cartier Martin measured 6'-4" barefoot with a 6'-10" wingspan, and his standing reach was 8'-7.5". In 2007, Alan Anderson measured 6'-4.5" with a 6'-9.5" wingspan and his standing reach was 8'-8".

I'm guessing Tre's true standing reach is somewhere between 8'-8" and 8'-9".

[The Consiglieri]

I highlighted the few times that their team was actually happy with the draft pick. Every other pick was either a total bust or a modest disappointment. The jury is still out on Risacher.

Wemby was obviously a big success, but that's just because he is a total outlier physical specimen. Other than that, Bilal is the only guy in the last decade who wasn't either a total bust or a significant disappointment relative to his draft.

I think the key reason we should be potentially excited about France is this:

Euro Championship (FIBA Euro Basket): (5 tournaments per decade between 1980-2010, since then it changed up)
France:

1980-1989:
0 Final Fours.

1990-1999:
2 Final Fours (1991, and 1999 4th place finishes, 1999 while host)

2000-2009:
2 Final Fours (2003 4th place, 2005 3rd place)

2011-2017:
3 Final Fours in 4 tournaments (2nd in '11, 1st in '13, 3rd in '15)

2022:
Lost to Spain in Final

Between 1980 and 1997:
France made 1 Final Four Appearance in 9 tournaments.

Between 1999 and 2005, the Tony Parker years, they made 3 Final Four appearance in 4 tournaments.

Since 2011, there have been 5 tournaments
France has finished:
2011: 2nd
2013: 1st
2015: 3rd
2017: Knocked out in the Round of 16 by Germany 84-81
2022: 2nd

At the club level not a lot has happened until relatively recently, but I think for now anyway, the best way to measure this is probably by the rapid, incredible improvement of the French national team.

They were actually decent in European comp back when nobody cared about basketball (1930's to 1950's). They made a pile of runs during that era to the semifinals, 8 in total between 1935 and 1961, though the semifinals were a road block (they only won 1 of their 8 semifinal appearances and then lost in the final), just as the NBA and Basketball became popular in the US and gradually in the world, France disappeared for the following 3 decades (1963-1997) making 1 total run to the semifinals in that 30ish year stretch after making 8 runs before that in the pre and post WWII period.

But then, suddenly, starting with the Tony Parker era of 1999 and beyond, France suddenly becomes a force, and over the past decade, a potentially dominant force, with 4 runs to the semifinals in 5 tournaments (the equivalent of the Euro Championship in soccer), and 3 title appearances in those 4 runs, with 1 Gold Finish. At the olympic level they have qualified and made runs to the knockout medal contending round in every single summer olympics going back to 2012, getting knocked out by Spain in the quarterfinals in '12 and '16, before falling to the US in the Final of '21, and '24 to the US.


To me, this is your story about French Prospects.

This isn't a case of French prospects really blowing ---, so much as France has matured as a Basketball Nation primarily since 2011, and during that era, they have qualified for the Olympics, and the Euro Basket Finals every single cycle, and made runs to the knockouts in all 9 tournaments, making runs to the semifinals in '11, '13, '15, '21, '22 and '23, and only missing them in the '12 and '16 Olympics to powerhouse Spain, and to Germany in the '17 Euro Championship.

Considering this is how I track rising and falling international sides in CAF, Conmebol, the AFC, and UEFA in soccer, it is also likely an excellent way to track golden generations and/or more likely in this case, the rise of an international program and developmental system. At the club level, you see less evidence, but there are multiple French clubs in recent years making deep runs for the first time ever in their Club Championship system. All that being said, what I really see is the rise of France from a player based power 20 years ago I would imagine (Tony Parker), to quite simply a top 2-4 Nation in producing basketball players good enough to beat all of the very best nations in Europe in basektball tournaments.

If that's true, then it should correspond to an uptick in prospect hit rate, at bare minimum, at the Euro Basket Club level and more likely, hit rate in the NBA too. So personally, while I have no idea what Essengue, Traore, and Joan will become, they are all very raw and very freaking young, they are like CL pospects that are U20's, in soccer, we all have learned that U17 stars tend to miss at huge rates (the rule of thumb is that any given roster of U17's usually produces 2-4 players of any national team relevance whatsoever (not even necessarily good senior players), and while U20's have a higher hit rate, it's not much higher, the thought process being there is a giant chasm between an age 16 prospect and an age 21-23 professional whose a reliable star, or league player). So again, I have no idea if they will hit, these individual guys, but the evidence is clearly here that France is starting to produce players good enough to become dominant at the European Championship level, and has been doing so for about 14 years, and that their improvement has accelerated dramatically since between 2013-2016. That tells us, we are either seeing a pair of golden generations, or France is just becoming damn good at basketball. Since this has been a process that has lasted from 2011-the present, I think it suggests that they're just much, much better than they were in the sixties, seventies, eighties, nineties, and aughts, and as such, investing in the talent their international program, and Euro club programs existing over their, is probably like buying Apple in 1999, rather than 2009. This is a nation that is coming on line in terms of Basketball, much like Spain, and the players are likely to begin showing it going forward. What's intriguing about this, is that after France fell asleep in soccer from 2007-2014, they began waking up with the Pogba/Mbappe era with Pogba's U20 winning team of '13. I wonder if France invested a lot into youth sports around that era? the timing is very interesting.

[The Consiglieri]

Well in terms of aloof, dude is French.

I'm interested, raw as hell, helps the tank, has a high ceiling and low floor. I'll consider that at 18. Both he and Beringer (and Traore to a lesser extent) have been primary targets for me because I see them as 2-3 year plan prospects that won't hurt the tank in '25-'26 or '26-'27, and offer long term upside potential, and yeah, the floor is much lower than virtually every preferred 2nd round target on this board, but nearly all those targets I've heard about offer the same that we already have in spades and is typically cheap in FA: Competent, floor prospects that provide some utility and zero chance at stardom or even "very goodness".

For me, with zero future stars on the roster currently (although probably 2 of them still have some minute degree of that potential in Sarr, Bilal, and now that I think of it, even AJ), we need to take big fat swings, not settle for walks, and singles. I don't care if we have a great 5th guy on an average team, that is meaningless (other than as a trade chip, which I concede will have value), I'm hunting for hidden stars, even if the chances of that are only 3-8%, look at Dallas/San Antonio/Philly winning this lottery (Cough), that was 1 in 1000 or rigged. So yeah, I'll swing for the fences, period, until we have our star(s), at which point I think we can afford to try and grab singles, doubles and even walks.

I'm generally leery of the French. I think they have been consistently disappointing as NBA players. Here is a list of French players drafted in the last 25 years:



I highlighted the few times that their team was actually happy with the draft pick. Every other pick was either a total bust or a modest disappointment. The jury is still out on Risacher.

Wemby was obviously a big success, but that's just because he is a total outlier physical specimen. Other than that, Bilal is the only guy in the last decade who wasn't either a total bust or a significant disappointment relative to his draft.

Filtering the list and taking out the SRPs, it isn't that bad, no?

Agreed, and 5 of the past 8 first round picks are hits (Gobert, Capela, Wemby, Bilal, Risacher) in the sense that they belong in the NBA and have performed at a reasonable level versus slot, Salaun is a developmental prospect from last year, so he doesn't really count as a miss either. The only real misses in the first round since 2013 when they became a long term force in terms of European International Competition, has been Doumboya, and Ntilinkina, Doum was taking mid 1st where hit rate I feel drops sub .500, and Ntilikina was considered a joke at the time in '17, when the Knicks made the pick.

Honestly, the list, when combined with my research of France's performance in European competition, and Olympic competition since 2012, suggests we should be aggressively investing in French players, at least in round 1 anyway.

[The Consiglieri]

There are SO MANY guys that would typically go in a lot of drafts in that 9-15 zone: I feel like there are around 20-25 guys this year that would be comfortably in the bottom of the top 10 to bottom of the teens in most drafts, but are all just piled into a clown car in this draft, and will thus flow downward to the end of round 1 and possibly early round 2. This might have been a much better draft to have an early 2nd than usual, I'm a bit annoyed we gave ours to Boston.

Hard for me to be annoyed at losing the early SRP given that the same FO was able to get the 18th pick.

I know, and we do have 40, I'm super excited for 18, I know every single poster on this board that referenced that pick for several weeks post trade referred to it as the "26th" pick we got from Memphis until the roof caved in on their season and everyone became alerted to the fact that the pick could be in the lower 20's instead, I remember posting about the possibility that they could get passed and it could land 18-22, in early March simply because the schedule down the stretch was pretty rough. That has been fantastic.

The 2nd, I just happen to think, could actually yield a guy that more typically goes 20-25 this year, at least at the top of round 2, which is pretty damn good, but I'm not that spoiled and we can only pile so many 19-24 year olds in a locker room before we just need to start driving a clown car onto the court before games.

[closg00]

Good discussion.

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[SUPERBALLMAN]

Good discussion.

Watch on YouTube

I just listened to an interview with Kneupple on KOC, he said he grew up a Bucks fan & listed Middleton as one of his all time favorite players!

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Noa Essengue is a hard read for me. His production at his age is terrific. He is a physically imposing 6-10 and moves unsually well for his size. He draws fouls at an astronomical rate over multiple leagues. He creates defensive events all over the court and willingly shoots 3s.

What gives me pause? His hands. There are alot of instances where he doesn't catch passes cleanly. He also lacks polished perimeter skills. He is really raw as wing/forward skill wise and I dont know if the foul drawing rafe translates against better athletes who arent overwhelmed by Noa's size/athleticism.

I'm not interested in Essengue. I was intrigued at first with his physical attributes, but he doesn't look like he'll be NBA ready anytime soon if ever. Too awkward, too many holes in his game, lack of perimeter skill and too thin to play on the interior. Doesn't take contact well, has a kind of lackadaisical style of play. Even the interviews I've seen of him he comes across as aloof.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Well in terms of aloof, dude is French.

I'm interested, raw as hell, helps the tank, has a high ceiling and low floor. I'll consider that at 18. Both he and Beringer (and Traore to a lesser extent) have been primary targets for me because I see them as 2-3 year plan prospects that won't hurt the tank in '25-'26 or '26-'27, and offer long term upside potential, and yeah, the floor is much lower than virtually every preferred 2nd round target on this board, but nearly all those targets I've heard about offer the same that we already have in spades and is typically cheap in FA: Competent, floor prospects that provide some utility and zero chance at stardom or even "very goodness".

For me, with zero future stars on the roster currently (although probably 2 of them still have some minute degree of that potential in Sarr, Bilal, and now that I think of it, even AJ), we need to take big fat swings, not settle for walks, and singles. I don't care if we have a great 5th guy on an average team, that is meaningless (other than as a trade chip, which I concede will have value), I'm hunting for hidden stars, even if the chances of that are only 3-8%, look at Dallas/San Antonio/Philly winning this lottery (Cough), that was 1 in 1000 or rigged. So yeah, I'll swing for the fences, period, until we have our star(s), at which point I think we can afford to try and grab singles, doubles and even walks.

I’m all for taking a swing, that’s just not the swing I would take.

[nate33]

Well in terms of aloof, dude is French.

I'm interested, raw as hell, helps the tank, has a high ceiling and low floor. I'll consider that at 18. Both he and Beringer (and Traore to a lesser extent) have been primary targets for me because I see them as 2-3 year plan prospects that won't hurt the tank in '25-'26 or '26-'27, and offer long term upside potential, and yeah, the floor is much lower than virtually every preferred 2nd round target on this board, but nearly all those targets I've heard about offer the same that we already have in spades and is typically cheap in FA: Competent, floor prospects that provide some utility and zero chance at stardom or even "very goodness".

For me, with zero future stars on the roster currently (although probably 2 of them still have some minute degree of that potential in Sarr, Bilal, and now that I think of it, even AJ), we need to take big fat swings, not settle for walks, and singles. I don't care if we have a great 5th guy on an average team, that is meaningless (other than as a trade chip, which I concede will have value), I'm hunting for hidden stars, even if the chances of that are only 3-8%, look at Dallas/San Antonio/Philly winning this lottery (Cough), that was 1 in 1000 or rigged. So yeah, I'll swing for the fences, period, until we have our star(s), at which point I think we can afford to try and grab singles, doubles and even walks.

I'm generally leery of the French. I think they have been consistently disappointing as NBA players. Here is a list of French players drafted in the last 25 years:



I highlighted the few times that their team was actually happy with the draft pick. Every other pick was either a total bust or a modest disappointment. The jury is still out on Risacher.

Wemby was obviously a big success, but that's just because he is a total outlier physical specimen. Other than that, Bilal is the only guy in the last decade who wasn't either a total bust or a significant disappointment relative to his draft.

Filtering the list and taking out the SRPs, it isn't that bad, no?

I'm not expecting the SRP's to be stars or anything. But it would be nice if one of them would at least stick around for a 2nd contract.

[The Consiglieri]

I'm not interested in Essengue. I was intrigued at first with his physical attributes, but he doesn't look like he'll be NBA ready anytime soon if ever. Too awkward, too many holes in his game, lack of perimeter skill and too thin to play on the interior. Doesn't take contact well, has a kind of lackadaisical style of play. Even the interviews I've seen of him he comes across as aloof.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Well in terms of aloof, dude is French.

I'm interested, raw as hell, helps the tank, has a high ceiling and low floor. I'll consider that at 18. Both he and Beringer (and Traore to a lesser extent) have been primary targets for me because I see them as 2-3 year plan prospects that won't hurt the tank in '25-'26 or '26-'27, and offer long term upside potential, and yeah, the floor is much lower than virtually every preferred 2nd round target on this board, but nearly all those targets I've heard about offer the same that we already have in spades and is typically cheap in FA: Competent, floor prospects that provide some utility and zero chance at stardom or even "very goodness".

For me, with zero future stars on the roster currently (although probably 2 of them still have some minute degree of that potential in Sarr, Bilal, and now that I think of it, even AJ), we need to take big fat swings, not settle for walks, and singles. I don't care if we have a great 5th guy on an average team, that is meaningless (other than as a trade chip, which I concede will have value), I'm hunting for hidden stars, even if the chances of that are only 3-8%, look at Dallas/San Antonio/Philly winning this lottery (Cough), that was 1 in 1000 or rigged. So yeah, I'll swing for the fences, period, until we have our star(s), at which point I think we can afford to try and grab singles, doubles and even walks.

I’m all for taking a swing, that’s just not the swing I would take.

That's fine, and I totally understand it. I just think the team should be focused on acquiring one of two things with this draft:
1. Players with the best chance of becoming future stars.
2. Assets that can be used to help with lottery balls in '26 or '27.

Everything else is pointless. We don't need more floor players, we already have a bunch of guys with a reasonable long term career trajectory, we just have little in terms of high end upside beyond Bilal if he gets the offensive side down (he clearly has the defensive side down), Sarr (a lot has to happen), or AJ (borderline hail mary, but he's shown some ceiling potential), but none of those guys are remotely like the Wemby's, Flagg's, Harper's, Chet's, Paolo's, or Ant's of the world. Nobody on the roster is close to what those guys are already, or are on their way to becoming, or potentially becoming. As such, we need to take big swings, identify the player and go. Kispert, Troy Brown, Rui type picks simply aren't helpful. Deni, Bilal, Sarr, AJ type picks are helpful. Swing away, if we miss, we miss, hitting on a kispert, or missing on him is largely immaterial, he's a last piece on a good team, not a key piece to anything. We can't be hunting floors and fits, and contributors, we have them, we need high end potential, even if the floors are horrifyingly low.

[Dat2U]

Well in terms of aloof, dude is French.

I'm interested, raw as hell, helps the tank, has a high ceiling and low floor. I'll consider that at 18. Both he and Beringer (and Traore to a lesser extent) have been primary targets for me because I see them as 2-3 year plan prospects that won't hurt the tank in '25-'26 or '26-'27, and offer long term upside potential, and yeah, the floor is much lower than virtually every preferred 2nd round target on this board, but nearly all those targets I've heard about offer the same that we already have in spades and is typically cheap in FA: Competent, floor prospects that provide some utility and zero chance at stardom or even "very goodness".

For me, with zero future stars on the roster currently (although probably 2 of them still have some minute degree of that potential in Sarr, Bilal, and now that I think of it, even AJ), we need to take big fat swings, not settle for walks, and singles. I don't care if we have a great 5th guy on an average team, that is meaningless (other than as a trade chip, which I concede will have value), I'm hunting for hidden stars, even if the chances of that are only 3-8%, look at Dallas/San Antonio/Philly winning this lottery (Cough), that was 1 in 1000 or rigged. So yeah, I'll swing for the fences, period, until we have our star(s), at which point I think we can afford to try and grab singles, doubles and even walks.

I’m all for taking a swing, that’s just not the swing I would take.

That's fine, and I totally understand it. I just think the team should be focused on acquiring one of two things with this draft:
1. Players with the best chance of becoming future stars.
2. Assets that can be used to help with lottery balls in '26 or '27.

Everything else is pointless. We don't need more floor players, we already have a bunch of guys with a reasonable long term career trajectory, we just have little in terms of high end upside beyond Bilal if he gets the offensive side down (he clearly has the defensive side down), Sarr (a lot has to happen), or AJ (borderline hail mary, but he's shown some ceiling potential), but none of those guys are remotely like the Wemby's, Flagg's, Harper's, Chet's, Paolo's, or Ant's of the world. Nobody on the roster is close to what those guys are already, or are on their way to becoming, or potentially becoming. As such, we need to take big swings, identify the player and go. Kispert, Troy Brown, Rui type picks simply aren't helpful. Deni, Bilal, Sarr, AJ type picks are helpful. Swing away, if we miss, we miss, hitting on a kispert, or missing on him is largely immaterial, he's a last piece on a good team, not a key piece to anything. We can't be hunting floors and fits, and contributors, we have them, we need high end potential, even if the floors are horrifyingly low.

I think weve confused upside with just athleticism for so long, its assumed thats the biggest determining factor but thats never been the case. I never seen a high flying modestly skilled wing become a star. I have not seen an athletic, low skilled big become anything more than rim runner. How would Essengue ever become a star? The same as anyone else has. Through extreme and outlier skill development. Now looking at Essengue's skill level, whats there that screams that he can go from being underskilled as he is now at 19, to being able to handle, pass & score at an extremely high level?

[penbeast0]

There are SO MANY guys that would typically go in a lot of drafts in that 9-15 zone: I feel like there are around 20-25 guys this year that would be comfortably in the bottom of the top 10 to bottom of the teens in most drafts, but are all just piled into a clown car in this draft, and will thus flow downward to the end of round 1 and possibly early round 2. This might have been a much better draft to have an early 2nd than usual, I'm a bit annoyed we gave ours to Boston.

Hard for me to be annoyed at losing the early SRP given that the same FO was able to get the 18th pick.

I know, and we do have 40, I'm super excited for 18, I know every single poster on this board that referenced that pick for several weeks post trade referred to it as the "26th" pick we got from Memphis until the roof caved in on their season and everyone became alerted to the fact that the pick could be in the lower 20's instead, I remember posting about the possibility that they could get passed and it could land 18-22, in early March simply because the schedule down the stretch was pretty rough. That has been fantastic.

The 2nd, I just happen to think, could actually yield a guy that more typically goes 20-25 this year, at least at the top of round 2, which is pretty damn good, but I'm not that spoiled and we can only pile so many 19-24 year olds in a locker room before we just need to start driving a clown car onto the court before games.

We don't drive clown cars here in Washington, we hitch up wiener dogs to little carts and send them out.

[The Consiglieri]

I'm generally leery of the French. I think they have been consistently disappointing as NBA players. Here is a list of French players drafted in the last 25 years:


I highlighted the few times that their team was actually happy with the draft pick. Every other pick was either a total bust or a modest disappointment. The jury is still out on Risacher.

Wemby was obviously a big success, but that's just because he is a total outlier physical specimen. Other than that, Bilal is the only guy in the last decade who wasn't either a total bust or a significant disappointment relative to his draft.

Filtering the list and taking out the SRPs, it isn't that bad, no?

I'm not expecting the SRP's to be stars or anything. But it would be nice if one of them would at least stick around for a 2nd contract.

I'd counter with:
#1: Most of those seconds are mid to late 2nds, where the hit rate is miniscule.
#2 there aren't many at all that are in the zone where hits typically happen.

How many busts are in the zone where you'd expect to get a legit 2nd contract contributor?

Viktor Sanikidze in '04 was 42, so not insanely low.
Damien Inglis in '14 was 31st, so that's an unfortunate miss.
David Michineau in '15 was 39th, so that's somewhat high.
Theo Maledon in '20 was 34th.

But that's it, all the rest of them were 45 or lower, usually in the 50's.

How many 2nd rounders have we hit on since 1989? 35 drafts, what, 1 or 2?

These are the four guys that went high enough to where you could say, well, couldn't one of those third rounders not suck? Sanikdize wasn't exactly high, but he is inside the first half of the second round so I included him.

But in my view, France hit as an international contender in the European Confederation about 15 years ago. This means, for all intents and purposes the prospects bubbling up wouldn't break through and generate professional results relevant to the NBA until about a decade ago, give or take a year or two. Since then we have:

Gobert hitting pretty big time.
Capela hitting very big as well, both of them going in the late twenties.

After that there's a run of crappy selections, but all of them are exceptionally low picks (53rd, 39th, 50th, 31st) except for the famed bust Ntilikina, but as I mentioned before, I think everyone regarded him as a mega reach in the '17 class anyway. okay, I like to edit myself if I'm wrong, so I got to tag myself as wrong here, I just looked at a couple of '17 mocks, and they both have him inside the top 10 at 9th and 8th respectively, so I guess I was wrong on that, though theringer does suggest: "his rawness leaves his upside as a complete mystery". Preceeding the exciting '23 pair of Wemby, and Bilal, you have a pile up of meh's, but like the others, nearly all of them are considered long shot, draft and stash sorts (Okobo goes 31st in '18, Doumbouya was considered raw when taken 15th in '19, Maledon goes 34th in '20, Begarin and Kamagate go in the mid 40's in '21 and '22).

To to my mind anyway, of the guys taken in the blue chip zone, the only bust since the radical transformation of France, was Frank Nk, and he was considered a raw upside swing at the time, the other guys are hits, Gobert and Capella ten years ago, Wemby is indeed Wemby from two years ago, and Bilal may not be a star, but he is exactly what he was at the time of his selection (super high end defensive weapon) and the rest of his ceiling was connected to developing the other side of his game, which besides a nice run last November, hasn't happened, meanwhile Risacher after a slow start, hit on all cylinders down the stretch, and our very own Sarr, was considered much better than expected by nearly everyone other than Wizards fans. Salaun is an unknown wait and see guy for now, he was considered more of a fast riser in the Bilal sense, and a developmental guy, so he's a wait and see, if he aint anything in '25-'26, we should be concerned.

Anyway to me, so far, Sarr, Risacher, Coulibaly all have been basically at bare minimum: singles or doubles considering slot and expectations, Gobert and Capella are home runs for late 1st rounders, Doumbouya is a bust, Salaun is a wait and see. The rest of the misses since France began arriving in the international game were selected so low that expectations had to be each of them had at best a 5-15% chance of becoming something worth playing in the NBA, as a reserve or starter, I'm not surprised they all basically missed, should they have hit on at least one? I don't know. The last time I did a pretty thorough scan of second round hit rate, it was flat out appalling, especially in the first year or three after said drafts, especially draft and stash guys. So maybe the 2nd round guys have not hit, and they certainly haven't, but with only 4 being selected between 30 and 45, is it all that shocking that all 4 missed. Generally what, 12 out of 15 early 2nd rounders through slot 45 completely miss, sometimes 13 out of 15, so if your sample size is like 4 guys, the fact that all missed is basically right within expectations with what I think (but don't know) the math probably is for guys at that slot.

Let me add, I'm looking at guys projected in the 8-25ish zone, not looking at prospects expected to go around 39-60. Otoh, most of the hits are early guys (Bilal, Sarr, Wemby, Risacher, only 2 of them are later first guys). We'll see.

Personally, these guys look like nice small cap stock targets, lots of upside, lots of risk. Exactly what I want when we need to tank in '25-'26 to protect our pick, and we also need upside (to be sure, there are plenty of upside swings among the domestics too like Carter Bryant etc).

[The Consiglieri]

Hard for me to be annoyed at losing the early SRP given that the same FO was able to get the 18th pick.

I know, and we do have 40, I'm super excited for 18, I know every single poster on this board that referenced that pick for several weeks post trade referred to it as the "26th" pick we got from Memphis until the roof caved in on their season and everyone became alerted to the fact that the pick could be in the lower 20's instead, I remember posting about the possibility that they could get passed and it could land 18-22, in early March simply because the schedule down the stretch was pretty rough. That has been fantastic.

The 2nd, I just happen to think, could actually yield a guy that more typically goes 20-25 this year, at least at the top of round 2, which is pretty damn good, but I'm not that spoiled and we can only pile so many 19-24 year olds in a locker room before we just need to start driving a clown car onto the court before games.

We don't drive clown cars here in Washington, we hitch up wiener dogs to little carts and send them out.

That's a beautiful image, especially for a tuesday. Thank you.

[The Consiglieri]

I’m all for taking a swing, that’s just not the swing I would take.

That's fine, and I totally understand it. I just think the team should be focused on acquiring one of two things with this draft:
1. Players with the best chance of becoming future stars.
2. Assets that can be used to help with lottery balls in '26 or '27.

Everything else is pointless. We don't need more floor players, we already have a bunch of guys with a reasonable long term career trajectory, we just have little in terms of high end upside beyond Bilal if he gets the offensive side down (he clearly has the defensive side down), Sarr (a lot has to happen), or AJ (borderline hail mary, but he's shown some ceiling potential), but none of those guys are remotely like the Wemby's, Flagg's, Harper's, Chet's, Paolo's, or Ant's of the world. Nobody on the roster is close to what those guys are already, or are on their way to becoming, or potentially becoming. As such, we need to take big swings, identify the player and go. Kispert, Troy Brown, Rui type picks simply aren't helpful. Deni, Bilal, Sarr, AJ type picks are helpful. Swing away, if we miss, we miss, hitting on a kispert, or missing on him is largely immaterial, he's a last piece on a good team, not a key piece to anything. We can't be hunting floors and fits, and contributors, we have them, we need high end potential, even if the floors are horrifyingly low.

I think weve confused upside with just athleticism for so long, its assumed thats the biggest determining factor but thats never been the case. I never seen a high flying modestly skilled wing become a star. I have not seen an athletic, low skilled big become anything more than rim runner. How would Essengue ever become a star? The same as anyone else has. Through extreme and outlier skill development. Now looking at Essengue's skill level, whats there that screams that he can go from being underskilled as he is now at 19, to being able to handle, pass & score at an extremely high level?

Fair point, but Essengue was also a 17-18 year old this past season, I see hope for guys that young. Also add in the fact that France is already incorporating him into qualifiers at age 18, but its all speculative. There's room, we'll see. I take to heart your points though.

[AFM]

I have to point out that the guys name is Tre Johnson. Tre means three pointer.
Johnson is slang for dick. His name is 3 Point Shooter with a huge Dick. The guy was literally put on this planet to make it rain from 3 then do the Cassell big balls celebration on the way back.

[Endless Loop]

Well in terms of aloof, dude is French.

I'm interested, raw as hell, helps the tank, has a high ceiling and low floor. I'll consider that at 18. Both he and Beringer (and Traore to a lesser extent) have been primary targets for me because I see them as 2-3 year plan prospects that won't hurt the tank in '25-'26 or '26-'27, and offer long term upside potential, and yeah, the floor is much lower than virtually every preferred 2nd round target on this board, but nearly all those targets I've heard about offer the same that we already have in spades and is typically cheap in FA: Competent, floor prospects that provide some utility and zero chance at stardom or even "very goodness".

For me, with zero future stars on the roster currently (although probably 2 of them still have some minute degree of that potential in Sarr, Bilal, and now that I think of it, even AJ), we need to take big fat swings, not settle for walks, and singles. I don't care if we have a great 5th guy on an average team, that is meaningless (other than as a trade chip, which I concede will have value), I'm hunting for hidden stars, even if the chances of that are only 3-8%, look at Dallas/San Antonio/Philly winning this lottery (Cough), that was 1 in 1000 or rigged. So yeah, I'll swing for the fences, period, until we have our star(s), at which point I think we can afford to try and grab singles, doubles and even walks.

I'm generally leery of the French. I think they have been consistently disappointing as NBA players. Here is a list of French players drafted in the last 25 years:



I highlighted the few times that their team was actually happy with the draft pick. Every other pick was either a total bust or a modest disappointment. The jury is still out on Risacher.

Wemby was obviously a big success, but that's just because he is a total outlier physical specimen. Other than that, Bilal is the only guy in the last decade who wasn't either a total bust or a significant disappointment relative to his draft.

Filtering the list and taking out the SRPs, it isn't that bad, no?

The list left of Ousmane Dieng, who was drafted by the Thunder when Dawkins was there. Dawkins has been involved in drafts that have picked French players in the first round for three years in a row.

[Dat2U]

I have to point out that the guys name is Tre Johnson. Tre means three pointer.
Johnson is slang for dick. His name is 3 Point Shooter with a huge Dick. The guy was literally put on this planet to make it rain from 3 then do the Cassell big balls celebration on the way back.

Im sold. Its definitely Tre or Ace for me.

The name is everything. Look at the rapper Bossman D-low. We now know he's a BOSS and he's on the down low.

I would never invest capital in a guy named Cedric Coward. I expect him to be a complete coward in the biggest moments!

You ever seen a good basketball player named Buster? I know I haven't.

[Kanyewest]

Well in terms of aloof, dude is French.

I'm interested, raw as hell, helps the tank, has a high ceiling and low floor. I'll consider that at 18. Both he and Beringer (and Traore to a lesser extent) have been primary targets for me because I see them as 2-3 year plan prospects that won't hurt the tank in '25-'26 or '26-'27, and offer long term upside potential, and yeah, the floor is much lower than virtually every preferred 2nd round target on this board, but nearly all those targets I've heard about offer the same that we already have in spades and is typically cheap in FA: Competent, floor prospects that provide some utility and zero chance at stardom or even "very goodness".

For me, with zero future stars on the roster currently (although probably 2 of them still have some minute degree of that potential in Sarr, Bilal, and now that I think of it, even AJ), we need to take big fat swings, not settle for walks, and singles. I don't care if we have a great 5th guy on an average team, that is meaningless (other than as a trade chip, which I concede will have value), I'm hunting for hidden stars, even if the chances of that are only 3-8%, look at Dallas/San Antonio/Philly winning this lottery (Cough), that was 1 in 1000 or rigged. So yeah, I'll swing for the fences, period, until we have our star(s), at which point I think we can afford to try and grab singles, doubles and even walks.

I'm generally leery of the French. I think they have been consistently disappointing as NBA players. Here is a list of French players drafted in the last 25 years:



I highlighted the few times that their team was actually happy with the draft pick. Every other pick was either a total bust or a modest disappointment. The jury is still out on Risacher.

Wemby was obviously a big success, but that's just because he is a total outlier physical specimen. Other than that, Bilal is the only guy in the last decade who wasn't either a total bust or a significant disappointment relative to his draft.

I feel like Ian Mahinmi and Evan Fournier are in the own category. The teams that had Ian Mahinmi (Dallas and Indiana) and Fournier (Denver and Orlando) early on were fine with him but have reached huge levels of disappointment with their contracts relative to their production later on.

I am trying to figure out the player which you would be closest to the break even point of neither happy nor sad- it might be Pietrus or Serapahin.

Also, Pecherov isn't French (must be players from the French league because Sarr isn't listed), Clint is Swiss.-

Rishacher/Sarr also just made all NBA rookie first teams for what it's worth.